Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

1. [w] After the rally from 118 and double top at 163.07 we've seen some pull back or possible start of the correction-reversal. Next point to be tested and a possible rejection from that point is 146.76 - 146.164 where our Fib 382 line is.
2. [w] we broke the Lower trend line and we are below the 5sma and 50ema
3. [D] on our daily chart we established a small 18 day bear trend, we had some hard time at 153.50 to break that point.. and as now look like we are heading back to retet the breakpoint.. (7 days out of 18 days we tried to break that level)
4. [D] with NFP soft data, we had a news spike - formed the double top [152.70] and we closed the session, day, and week with a double top rejection. Usualy we should sell double tops, and buy tripple top on penetration.
5. [D] Monday . Sydney-Tokyo session opens with DPP at 152.01, and the next daily bar opens above DPP and above 5sma. - a classic Bullish sign for monday..

[Charts]
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1252222242 http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1252222242

Now lets see some lower time frames and a possible setups there..

1. [4H] double top [152.70] is in place, that should give us some resistance... Usualy we should see the price send back to test the nearest Support level
2. [4H] Monday DPP (daily pivot) is at [152.01], we also have a 50 ema at tat level but also a fibonacci F382 on same level too. [152.00] we saw that level hard time to cross in both ways.
3. [4H] fast stoch entering in OB area..
4. [1H] litele bit clearer picture, with posible forming of the 70 pips range from 152.70 to the DPP [152.00]

Now, as we know the possible S/R levels. we may project the most possible scenarios can happen on monday.

1. it is important for a start to watch fisrt 2 levels teh friday TOP [152.70] and DPP [152.00], as break of any could give us some more clue where we are heading for rest of the day..
2. the most possible scenario from my perspective is that we go down to test DPP in asia, and with rejection from DPP we could go back UP again.. Anyway, this is only a hypotetical, as anything can happend.
3. But for sure.. breaking of the 152.70 could give us another 100+pips to up side, Breakind of DPP [152.00] could give us some more -> down to 146.76-146.10 where Im seeing the major rejection.
4. Monday is business as usual for Asia/EU, but Canada/Ny are on holiday... [low volume]

[Charts]
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1252223463 http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1252223526

Leverage buddy. These banks are holding portfolio asset values that are 10,15,20x their shareholder equity, funded significantly by short term maturity notes, i.e. a 10% markdown on a portfolio of assets leveraged at 10x equity would result in a worthless shareholding. Besides the absolutely huge duration mismatch on the cash flows, a 30% markdown on assets is more than enough to completely wipe out the shareholder equity section on the books. Was it any wonder that Colonial and Guaranty showed negative Tier 1 Capital ratios by the time they disclosed everything.

It was a gourgeous weekend! I hope everyone had fun

On the 2 charts I posted, we are at the critcal reversal point for both the bull trend to 167.73 and the current bear trend.

A major break of Daily Bear Channel UTL would signify the end of Bear Trend and resumption of the Bull trend towards 167.73.
A major break of the LTL of the Daily Bull Channel would signify the retracement from 215 to 118.6 was completed on June 12th,
and the move back down towards 118 will resume.

I see 3 potential trap areas for a snap and crack.

I'm not going to assume we are moving in a major trend direction until the shakeouts are complete, but since the bear trend is near the LTL of the major bull trend, it should be decided soon which trend will prevail.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post3027069


Previuos Lower Trendline Never got touched..Lower LTL was in 148 area..

Unless new one is Made.

Going to 110 or 100 could also be a MYTH.. Devolped in Paranoid Traders minds....( The whole Wave count seems wrong..) I will be surprised if it can go pass 129XX IN Near Future.. 147- 146 is a strong Historical Support..

Retest of Broken Trendline is needed to make a new Low...179 area.or Higher.

Since US is closed today - here are the trading plan for GBP/JPY (sunday/monday). Since DOW index has starting to give bearish behavior. This could send GBP/JPY down with it, so monday we are consolidating.

So plan:
Sell to 151,60
Buy here and sell 152,05
Sell to 150,90 (Late asian session)
Buy here to 151,50-60 (Around London opening)

See chart

Thanks for pointing that out. 148 area was the LTL point for last week, not 149. I had to redraw my chart today, and was zoomed out. The LTL accidently snapped to the wick bottom of last week's candle. posted the corrected chart.

I wish I could turn that function off, it drives me crazy...

I agree that the great plunge may not happen. Fundamentally there is consensus among the Central banks to draw a line in the sand. Governments may agree to massive deficit spending for the next 6 years to prevent it while corrections in the infrastructure take place. It's the Belgium principle.
Interesting piece on how they did it in the 90's on wiki.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Belgium

Interesting Article..

Here is the Red line...sooner than later it should get touched..

Believe these Greedy Bunch have bought everything at a Bargain Price..they can only Take them Higher..

Well that's the key isn't it.

News move in the direction of price weakness to get the uninformed to buy in. News for the masses is positive, recession over, to get them to buy in.

The current trading sentiment is bearish, positioning for a move down. News for the traders.

I don't buy in to 4H channels to represent major trends, just micro trends. That's how they trap traders, thinking a trendline has been broken, taking a big position, and getting caught in a quick reversal.

.

strange, on my mt4 ibfx feed its the lowest volume week on audusd since june (except that strange quiet week mid august).

also a bit confused (this would relate to all pairs inc gj so not totally off topic), assuming there was really high volume on a big strong up move and it closed at the top of the bar, how could it not be buyers? if it was sellers doesnt it have to close lower down the bar? could have been SOME sellers of course but seemingly not enough of them to stop it closing on its high?

looks like a good sell anyway as both 1h and 4h rsi is dangerously overbought and the barrier options at 8500 were taken out so no real need to take it any higher (although its apparently been going up based on assumption rba will hike rates in november).

Bro nice chart, i like ensign also.....great analysis....

Chart for GBP/JPY weekly - looking at MACD range - target 140,60 area
Sunday/Monday trading: http://www.fxstreet.com/forum/showpo...postcount=1473

Piters........that 150.01 a typo? should be 152.01?

yes, Thanks mate.. typo.. sorry..

Excellent layout and explantion!!!

Yes...

Thanks bro, that's what im talking about. To retrace to Upper levels we need to open Double gate, at 152.70 [Double top] and [153.50] a condensed wall..

the less resistance is to downs side.. but we have to play her music..

btw.. I opened some shorts in friday.. for over the weekend..!

by Mike Larson


We told you this was coming. Heck: A blind man could have seen it a mile away.

For many months now, we've predicted that Washington's wild spending and borrowing spree would make the global investors who buy our longer-term Treasuries — notes and bonds — as nervous as long-tailed cats in a room full of rocking chairs.

We've cautioned you that our sky-high deficits, record shattering borrowing by the U.S. Treasury and runaway money printing by the Federal Reserve would cause them to lose sleep, worrying about the real return on their money — not to mention, the return OF their money.

We forecast that as these concerns deepened, they would reduce the amount of money they were willing to loan Washington ... or stop loaning us money altogether ... or even begin selling the longer-term Treasuries they already own.

Now, those forecasts have begun to come true — in spades!

Just a few days ago, the U.S. Treasury Department revealed that China actually REDUCED its note and bond holdings by $25 billion in June. Although China did NOT sell shorter-term Treasury bills — and isn't expected to — it's still the largest amount of Treasuries China has ever sold in a single month.

This is a huge development:

In 2006, China and Hong Kong accounted for more than 50 percent of the increase in the amount of Treasury debt sold to the public ...


In 2008, their share had fallen to 22 percent as the U.S. government increased its public debt by a record $1.2 trillion ...


In the first half of THIS year, China and Hong Kong acquired only 9 percent of the more than $800 billion worth of Treasury bonds that were sold — and now ...


In June, China became a net SELLER of U.S. Treasury notes and bonds!
So what's next? Will China dump the rest of its estimated $876 billion hoard of U.S. Treasuries and crash the Treasury market — and by doing so, kill the U.S. dollar, drive interest rates sky high and leave the U.S. economy a smoking ruin?

Absolutely not. Beijing's leaders are far too smart for that. They're well aware that doing that would crush the value of the Treasuries they own and cost them a king's ransom.

But one thing seems clear: One of Washington's most dependable sources of loans to finance our out-of-control deficits is drying up. That means demand for longer-term Treasuries is softening.

That also means you can pretty much count on much higher interest rates in 2010 and beyond — and you can count on those higher rates to crush any chances of a vigorous recovery or rapidly rising stock prices here.

Meanwhile — even as the U.S. stock market has rebounded by about 13 percent this year ...

China's Shanghai Index is up 46.5 percent — the average stock producing nearly $4 in profits for every $1 produced by the S&P!


Hong Kong is up 37.1 percent — three times more than the S&P 500 ...


Singapore is up 47.2 percent, generating nearly $4 in profits for every $1 produced by the S&P 500, and ...


Taiwan is up 48.7 percent, also beating the S&P 500 stock by nearly four to one.


In Vietnam, the average stock is up a resounding 73.2 percent — spinning off $5.63 in profits for every $1 being earned on the S&P 500.


is growing rich selling China the natural resources it needs to fuel its record-shattering economic boom — and so far this year, the average Brazilian stock has outpaced the average S&P stock by nearly five to one.


India, the world's second-most populous nation is also enjoying an historic economic expansion — and so far in 2009, the average Indian stock has generated more than $6 in profits for every $1 earned on the S&P 500.


And resource-rich Russia is also making a bundle selling oil and other resources to China and India — and so far this year, the Russian stock market has been on a tear — UP a whopping 76.3 percent ...

And spinning off nearly SIX DOLLARS in profits for every ONE dollar being earned on our own S&P 500!

this makes a lot of sense. its the line of least resistance. nice analysis!

you know whatever they're going to pull, it will be a brilliant play. Since we finished to the upside on Friday a strong drop would shake things up a bit.

...but the GY can cut through SR like butter sometimes if they're determined to move it. So, if I were looking to catch as many fish in a kettle as I could, I'd push through a strong SR area, (in either direction) and when the herd is on board, run it back before they knew what hit them.

should be fun!

Yes, the only tricky part here is NY session - low volume.. so, I agree.. we are going to see "PIPS in the CITY" season finale..

but on a serious note, If my calculations are correct, the wave pattern from 163 are not yet finished, and IF im right, as a subcount I can see only 3 subwaves from 163 to 149, which leave a space for the last or current wave up from 149 to 152.48 - or whenever stops to be the corrective wave 4.. The last one im expecting again, to test the 146.76 - 146.10, where Im expecting the major bounce happen..
The wave pattern with 5 subwaves completing only one wave from 163.

So, again, that is only a calculation, looking at the SR levels, looks pretty realistic.

To be short.. Up to the next major Resistance, then DOWN to 146, then again corrective UP - probably at 153.50 again,, and then down.. ect..ect...



"pips in the city" .....


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