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Why is there no Traders Holy Grail?

  • #21
  • Sep 4, 2009 2:33am Sep 4, 2009 2:33am
try find a person by the name "holy" and "grail"..u can google.. (jk)
  • #22
  • Sep 4, 2009 2:38am Sep 4, 2009 2:38am
Quoting AstonDan
The rest, to me, is needless froth (yes, I am aware the term needless will be contested by many, including the aforementioned members).
Hi Dan

Needless froth or just a good grounding in the business?

You run a retail outlet, that's just buying things cheap and putting them on a shelf and waiting for customers to come and buy them, right? The rest must be needless froth in that case.

We both know that's not true as there's obviously a lot more to it, but you get my point. You have a far deeper understanding and intelligence about your business because without it you would probably fail, the stats say 50% of new businesses fail in the first year and 95% within 5 years, your knowledge about your business isn't froth, it's knowledge which gives you increased chance of success, and without it an increased probability of failure.

Like most businesses I don't believe there is any secret knowledge or information in trading (excluding things like insider trading/dealing of course!), just a good understanding of how the business works and the intelligence to work it.

Trading is probably no more or less complicated than your business when you think about it.
  • #23
  • Sep 4, 2009 2:58am Sep 4, 2009 2:58am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
chart price patterns make me feel sick
Sushi makes me feel sick but every day thousands of people eat it, they seem to like it
  • #24
  • Sep 4, 2009 3:30am Sep 4, 2009 3:30am
Quoting pipmutt
You have a far deeper understanding and intelligence about your business because without it you would probably fail, the stats say 50% of new businesses fail in the first year and 95% within 5 years, your knowledge about your business isn't froth, it's knowledge which gives you increased chance of success, and without it an increased probability of failure.
Morning Pip!

Yes, i appreciate your post. The point i was trying to get across was it's so easy to get bogged down in the superfluous information (of which there is an awful lot) and lose the focus of what we're all trying to achieve and what it takes to achieve it.

There's knowledge the likes of which yourself and Daytrading exhibit, and there's witchcraft. Knowledge is invaluable and will help someone either become a profitable trader or at least lose at a much slower rate, whereas the 'holy grail' implies some sort of easy fix, of which there is none, and the sooner people forget about about easy answers and start asking the hard questions, the better their chance of finding the right answer.

Dan

Oh by the way, my 'shop' is metaphorical. I've never seen a shop which sells bread AND sex toys...mmm...maybe there's a market in there somewhere.
  • #25
  • Sep 4, 2009 4:40am Sep 4, 2009 4:40am
Quoting AstonDan
The point i was trying to get across was it's so easy to get bogged down in the superfluous information (of which there is an awful lot) and lose the focus of what we're all trying to achieve and what it takes to achieve it.

I've never seen a shop which sells bread AND sex toys...mmm...maybe there's a market in there somewhere.

If I see a chain of Ann Summers Bakeries springing up I'll know who's responsible!

I get your point, there's an abundance of 'stuff' out there which might seem like fluff and hokus pokus to us but to the author it could be their edge (moon cycles to predict turning points???? But amazingly the guy makes it work for him!). I think they'll always be a contingent of people who think they're experts and just spout garbage but that's the same in everything.

My opinion is that in order to become a successful trader one needs to understand the essence of trading. Once that concept is understood then the rest falls into place and is just logistics. Superfluous information, other people's strategies, and their personal opinions of the market (no matter how diverse!) can then be seen for what they are, just interesting food for thought which may or may not assist us in our own trading.
  • #26
  • Edited 5:18am Sep 4, 2009 5:03am | Edited 5:18am
"Holy Grail" does exist and is the "edge" -the very personal and unique way the financial markets are understood- a trader develops with the experience when finally he/she manages to trade as a living.

This experience can only be devolop by a methodic approach -that could be built by one or more systems- throughout the analysis and synthesis derived of the information the method generates so it could be possible to compare, learn and improve.

That is my approach at least.
  • #27
  • Sep 4, 2009 8:51pm Sep 4, 2009 8:51pm
Quoting iiivb
"Holy Grail" does exist and is the "edge" -the very personal and unique way the financial markets are understood- a trader develops with the experience when finally he/she manages to trade as a living.

This experience can only be devolop by a methodic approach -that could be built by one or more systems- throughout the analysis and synthesis derived of the information the method generates so it could be possible to compare, learn and improve.

That is my approach at least.
What edge are you refering? I don't think one exists. If it did nobody would be sharing it thats for sure. Best to trade as if your at Las Vegas cause thats what it is, minus flashing lights and waitresses.
  • #28
  • Sep 4, 2009 9:16pm Sep 4, 2009 9:16pm
If there was a 'holy grail' there would be no market......someone has to lose....which brings me to my next point, the closest thing you will get to a Holy Grail is not an indicator, or system, or ea, or squiggly lines, or bands, or crosses, or any other bs......how about you just actually understand how the market works, why prices move, and who moves them...but that actually takes some work, and nobody wants that now do we...
  • #29
  • Sep 4, 2009 10:47pm Sep 4, 2009 10:47pm
Quoting dynamicmgt
In my opinion, there are many holy grails in trading. Its the definition of holy grail that is in question. In my opinion, if you can trade a system for over a year, and on average, it will produce 20% to 30% equity growth, I consider that a holy grail. If your definition of holy grail means it never loses a trade, or it doubles your account every week or even month, then you will search hard to find your holy grail. I have been trading full time for 4 years straight, and my holy grail has returned a average of 25% a month. I am very happy with...
25% ! ! Wow lmao , that's big fish . Do u mind posting about that magic system here ( newbies like me need some help of the big guys like u ) . Regards,,,
Winners never quit and quitters never win. Vince Lombardi
  • #30
  • Sep 5, 2009 6:03am Sep 5, 2009 6:03am
Quoting cristiano7
25% ! ! Wow lmao , that's big fish . Do u mind posting about that magic system here ( newbies like me need some help of the big guys like u ) . Regards,,,
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  • #31
  • Sep 5, 2009 7:16am Sep 5, 2009 7:16am
Quoting beam
You've seen it over and over again: "there is no holy grail in trading".

As a newbie, it's hard to accept what other, more experienced traders, says. You just have to see for yourself. Nothing wrong in that. I know I had to travel that road

But what if we discuss this with a sort of semiscientific angle? Maybe that'll prevent some newbies from losing money. I will present a couple of alternatives. Please feel free to add, remove and comment.

One perfect system
Ok, what if a "perfect system" actually existed? What would happen?...
Big players play a completely different game. Think about the volume they trade. You as a small player represent a figure that is like an ant to human. It is tiny.Therefore you are looking for a greater move to increase your share. The other guys dont need that. In terms of if everyone traded the same way all the time, then the holy grail wouldnt exist. In order for any form of trading to exist there needs to be a buyer and a seller. Once wins, one losses its zero sum in nature.

Therefore if there was a perfect system, it would be a failure based on the premise that there would be (presumably) no one on the other side of the fence, therefore a trade cannot take place.

While I can understand your question the fact is that there is no system that can interpret every traders future actions in real time.

Razor
  • #32
  • Sep 5, 2009 10:51am Sep 5, 2009 10:51am
I for sure it exist but it is untold secret
If it been told here, it is no more secret and no more HolyGrail.

And secret normally is only be told to close one or few person who can keep the secret. Of course not in public forum like this.
  • #33
  • Sep 6, 2009 5:55am Sep 6, 2009 5:55am
Quoting akukaya
I for sure it exist but it is untold secret
If it been told here, it is no more secret and no more HolyGrail.

And secret normally is only be told to close one or few person who can keep the secret. Of course not in public forum like this.
It is untold because it cannot be told, not because it is a secret but because it's a 'feeling' and not a system.

Enough said.
I believe . . .
  • #34
  • Sep 6, 2009 6:40am Sep 6, 2009 6:40am
Quoting Razor_trader
Big players play a completely different game. Think about the volume they trade. You as a small player represent a figure that is like an ant to human. It is tiny.Therefore you are looking for a greater move to increase your share. The other guys dont need that. In terms of if everyone traded the same way all the time, then the holy grail wouldnt exist. In order for any form of trading to exist there needs to be a buyer and a seller. Once wins, one losses its zero sum in nature.

Therefore if there was a perfect system, it would be a failure based...
Excellent explanation.
  • #35
  • Sep 6, 2009 8:57am Sep 6, 2009 8:57am
Quoting ghous
It is untold because it cannot be told, not because it is a secret but because it's a 'feeling' and not a system.

Enough said.
You could be right, and could be wrong.

It is not an easy feeling to keep a secret though...

One day, some one must told the secret...hopefully
  • #36
  • Sep 6, 2009 8:02pm Sep 6, 2009 8:02pm
It is a dead end street, a black hole or whatever you fancy. The concept of a trading system that is flawless is not possible. If you look at all facets of life, nothing is perfect. So why keep looking, why keep trying.

Heres some advice. Find a system that suits you. Make a plan, really make a plan. Include in the plan all your expectation for risk, profit and execution criteria. Then trade the plan. You will find that if you are disciplined enough to stick to your rules (provided those rules held more than par during backtesting) then you will have more success then the constant flipping of models when they cause you pain.

PAIN is a barrier that you must absorb in this game. To trade without the pain is not trading at all because over the course of a few 1000 trades YOU WILL LOOSE and more than likely over the course MULTIPLE TIMES IN A ROW. The most rediculous of Win/Loss ratio still have looses (there are no 100% winners) so in the event of a 90/10 system you will still loose 100 times out of a thousand, 1000 times out of 10 thousand. You cannot predict when those looses will start but over that course you will have to learn how to move past them and focus on the other side of the trade.

The same can be said for winners. Learn how to accept them and move on. If you find yourself getting excited over your winners ( we can all smile and say nice trade) then chances are the other side will happen with the losses. It is one of the hardest disciplines to just look past the emotions, they will be there for sure, and move onto the next task. If you can do this, then in time you will make more money than trying to find the answer to a question that requires the knowledge of the future. The holy grail doesnt exist in a system. As I mentioned, if it did then it wouldnt work based on the grounds that no trades could be executed due to the crowd trading one side.

Zero number game, one wins, one losses.

Razor
  • #37
  • Edited Sep 7, 2009 5:05am Sep 6, 2009 9:43pm | Edited Sep 7, 2009 5:05am
Quoting ghous
It is untold because it cannot be told, not because it is a secret but because it's a 'feeling' and not a system.

Enough said.
Yes, enough. Below is in further exploration from this fact.

Most traders only systematize until they get a consistent cash inflow and ignore or wing what's missing. A real HG'd cost millions to leverage untapped areas of trading.

I chase replication of the inner voice of my chart/news experience, since I ignore or mix up its interpretations in a trade, much less find a method that records it. It happens so fast and is so different from the rest of my life that I can't keep pace, take it for granted and ignore it "for now", or try and beat it with a technical analysis method that makes 'common sense' of it. In Freudian terms (from use of wikipedia's definitions), the ego interprets with the id the chart environment in a nearly-unconscious speed, and then ego defense mechanisms, the superego (unconscious except in effect) judging the interpretation before, during and after the id-ego interpretation of the chart(/news) environment happens, ignore or mix up the interpretation's literal use to make the actual trade.
Of course, a better TA method, the usual place for a HG, relieves the effort of this inner voice (and somewhat satisfies the superego and its call for the ego to intervene), through encapsulating more chart(/news) data more exactly to make a call on a trade in a commonsense, logical way.
The untapped area lies in the ego/id intuition's interpretation, with its timing and knowing when to trade or not, sense of proportion and efficient chart use of current TA, eyeballed proportions and accumulated angles.
  • #38
  • Sep 7, 2009 4:18am Sep 7, 2009 4:18am
Quoting ha-pattern
Most traders only systematize until they get a consistent cash inflow and ignore or wing what's missing. I chase replication of my experience, since I ignore or mix up its interpretations in a trade, much less find a method that records them. A real HG'd cost millions to leverage untapped areas of trading.
The point is, you don't have to be a Super man to trade,

you don't need any extraneous material,

you don't need to go looking for any extra ordinary edge,

It's all there laid out for you on the charts, and it's for ppl who fancy realistic opportunities,

Not denying the existence of money driven on a real 'HOLY GRAIL' but we on our teeny tiny accounts on the retail end of the picture need not deviate from what's out there and still makes good money....and which is OBVIOUS...DAMN OBVIOUS!

g.
I believe . . .
  • #39
  • Sep 7, 2009 5:27am Sep 7, 2009 5:27am
Quoting ghous
The point is, you don't have to be a Super man to trade,

you don't need any extraneous material,

you don't need to go looking for any extra ordinary edge,

It's all there laid out for you on the charts, and it's for ppl who fancy realistic opportunities,

Not denying the existence of money driven on a real 'HOLY GRAIL' but we on our teeny tiny accounts on the retail end of the picture need not deviate from what's out there and still makes good money....and which is OBVIOUS...DAMN OBVIOUS!

g.
I agree 99.9% with the above. Everything you need is in front of you. You can learn to read a chart like you can learn to read music or even hebrew.
The only thing that stops people winning is the people themselves.

The sad fact is that people have to loose money to complete the cycle.

It has been said "The losses of so many, end up in the pockets of so few"
You do need an edge to seperate yourslef from those who will fill your pockets. But this egde exists only in your mind.

Anyway just my 2 cents!

  • #40
  • Sep 7, 2009 6:07am Sep 7, 2009 6:07am
Quoting Razor_trader
Find a system that suits you. Make a plan, really make a plan. Include in the plan all your expectation for risk, profit and execution criteria. Then trade the plan.........

Zero number game, one wins, one losses.

Razor

Good post (except for the last bit, but that's a different debate )
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