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  • #3,221
  • Sep 5, 2009 2:53pm Sep 5, 2009 2:53pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Shamus, I hope your Grandmother is doing better.

Thanks everyone for the kind words.

I got a bit upset last night because I had just written the second of two posts and they suddenly disappeared. I managed to find them and noticed a heading that said "padded or padding posts".

While my posts may be on the long side, I don't "pad" posts .

I was not going to rewrite the second post, which was the one I cared most about. I was able to copy the text and then repost them both. I was not sure if they would remain. They have. Now I understand...
lol padded posts.. damn most of my posts should have been deleted
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #3,222
  • Sep 5, 2009 3:17pm Sep 5, 2009 3:17pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Shamus, I hope your Grandmother is doing better.

Thanks everyone for the kind words.

I got a bit upset last night because I had just written the second of two posts and they suddenly disappeared. I managed to find them and noticed a heading that said "padded or padding posts".

While my posts may be on the long side, I don't "pad" posts .

I was not going to rewrite the second post, which was the one I cared most about. I was able to copy the text and then repost them both. I was not sure if they would remain. They have. Now I understand...
thankgod hiddengap that ur problem was solved. your posts are very additive to us here.
  • #3,223
  • Sep 5, 2009 3:29pm Sep 5, 2009 3:29pm
Quoting malcolmb14
lol padded posts.. damn most of my posts should have been deleted
I am seriously worried by this - ALL my posts are at risk
  • #3,224
  • Sep 5, 2009 5:24pm Sep 5, 2009 5:24pm
Hi Hiddengap,
now back to work,
can we consider bar (L) in your chart,post 3210, as test bar?
  • #3,225
  • Sep 5, 2009 7:08pm Sep 5, 2009 7:08pm
rising market no volume bearish vol divergence in fact

1st bear div rsx .. 50 % drop
2nd bear div weekly .. be scared ....

2nd half next year......s&p 317 ???

maybe
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #3,226
  • Sep 5, 2009 9:11pm Sep 5, 2009 9:11pm
Quoting rockk
Hi Hiddengap,
now back to work,
can we consider bar (L) in your chart,post 3210, as test bar?
From a strictly VSA point of view, the answer is yes.

Tests fail for two reasons: 1. volume is too high (showing supply still present) 2. neither of the next two bars close higher than the close of the test candle.

Markets, however, can go up on a high volume test. The move is expected to be muted and to be re-tested.

This is what happens here. After the test , which we also note is a squat, prices rise slightly and then meander sideways. We see a few test like candles here, where a trader might look to enter.

In my opinion, #4 is the best test there. #2 for example, fails to produce a higher close on either of the next 2 candles. Plus, its high is not breached for some time. But #4 is not perfect either. Note how 2 candles later we get a down candle that closes lower than the close of #4.

That dark candle, however has extremely low volume (yellow) and is followed by another KRB. Both noted in the original pic.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #3,227
  • Sep 5, 2009 9:34pm Sep 5, 2009 9:34pm
Quoting HiddenGap
If my last two posts are removed again, you might as well remove every post I have made. And I will NOT be posting again.
If you stop posting in here I will hunt you down. And beg you to come back... lol

Forget about the noise a public forum naturally attracts. If people want to be naive it's their own loss. It's a common occurrence when markets are ranging and easy to trade. Wait until the trends fire up again, then we'll have all the "I lost it all" and "it's just random" outbursts

How someone can "back test" without first understanding what they're testing is beyond me. I've been at this for a while now and I'm not even 1/10th of the way there. As each day goes by, I understand another piece of the puzzle. In 20 years time I might just get there... lol

Your posts on here have had a significant influence on the developing of my understanding. Please do not stop.
  • #3,228
  • Sep 5, 2009 10:00pm Sep 5, 2009 10:00pm
Quoting HiddenGap
From a strictly VSA point of view, the answer is yes.

Tests fail for two reasons: 1. volume is too high (showing supply still present) 2. neither of the next two bars close higher than the close of the test candle.

Markets, however, can go up on a high volume test. The move is expected to be muted and to be re-tested.

This is what happens here. After the test , which we also note is a squat, prices rise slightly and then meander sideways. We see a few test like candles here, where a trader might look to enter.

In my opinion, #4 is the best...
mmmmm, nice explanation.thx
  • #3,229
  • Sep 6, 2009 7:25am Sep 6, 2009 7:25am
Hi all. I am new to VSA and I have reading you for a while. I have a doubt, maybe a silly one, but I need to clear this point before going on with my VSA studying. Well, when you say "supply are present", what are you referring to?.

Maybe that there are people going SHORT or that there are people closing their positions (longs and shorts previously taken).

The same doubt when you say "demand is present", what are you referring to?.

Maybe this means that people is going LONG or this is including people going SHORT too.

In resume, from a VSA point of view, is this correct: SUPPLY=SHORT and DEMAND=LONG; or maybe this: SUPPLY=PEOPLE CLOSING POSITIONS, DEMAND=PEOPLE TAKING POSITIONS (longs or shorts).

Thank you very much in advance and please continue with this great thread.

PS.- Please, excuse my English.
You make money by waiting, not by trading.
  • #3,230
  • Sep 6, 2009 7:34am Sep 6, 2009 7:34am
Quoting HiddenGap
Beautiful trade.
Hi all, and Hg. A beautiful chart and post indeed.
Many pairs did similar thing on Friday. I was looking the USDCHF pair and noticed than more often than not it is quite the mirror of EU-to some degree.
The same trade could have been made to the opposite direction as you analysed on the EU - I learned a lot from that.

So my question is, using this correlation, is it a good hint to read both markets and look for clearer signals knowing that they tend to move to the opposite directions? (Hedging is also in question but I do not think it is subject to this thread.)

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Kind Regards zol
  • #3,231
  • Edited 3:44pm Sep 6, 2009 2:54pm | Edited 3:44pm
Quoting zoli
Hi all, and Hg. A beautiful chart and post indeed.
Many pairs did similar thing on Friday. I was looking the USDCHF pair and noticed than more often than not it is quite the mirror of EU-to some degree.
The same trade could have been made to the opposite direction as you analysed on the EU - I learned a lot from that.

So my question is, using this correlation, is it a good hint to read both markets and look for clearer signals knowing that they tend to move to the opposite directions? (Hedging is also in question but I do not think it is subject...
Thanks for the question.

This is a very advanced question, and I do not think we can look to VSA for the answer. Many people using VSA will look to multiple timeframes to assist in trade entry signals.

But as to what you are referring, I am not aware of this type of thing in VSA teachings.

With that said, you are referring to a PRICE ACTION principle used by some called "sister trading". If you are trading the Euro, you can look for signals in another market that is highly correlated to it. That correlation can be either positive or negative. In other words, it can move up as the Euro moves up or move down as the Euro moves up. And vice versa.

There is a certain price action trader that uses this sister trading idea a lot. You can do a search of sister trading at elitetrader for more information on this. You can also Google "trading hammers revisited".

Personally, I do like the idea of looking at a 5 min. Swiss franc to help trade the 5 min. Euro, rather than looking at a 15 min. Euro and 30 min. Euro to trade the 5 min. Euro. Another possibility is the dollar index itself.

Of course there will be times when the markets "decouple". And you would have to define for yourself "high correlation".

To be clear, I am not talking about taking the signal in which ever market has the "best" or "cleanest" signal. I am talking about having one market as the trading vehicle (the Euro), but using the other ( CHF-the sister) market's signals to produce trades in the trading vehicle(the Euro).

If this is an area you do pursue, please post some examples for all to see and learn from.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #3,232
  • Edited 3:34pm Sep 6, 2009 3:18pm | Edited 3:34pm
Quoting fxspain
Hi all. I am new to VSA and I have reading you for a while. I have a doubt, maybe a silly one, but I need to clear this point before going on with my VSA studying. Well, when you say "supply are present", what are you referring to?.

Maybe that there are people going SHORT or that there are people closing their positions (longs and shorts previously taken).

The same doubt when you say "demand is present", what are you referring to?.

Maybe this means that people is going LONG or this is including people going SHORT too.

In resume, from...
VSA is based on the teachings of Richard Wyckoff. Wyckoff was a stock trader. In stocks, there is an actual supply-the amount of shares available for trading.

Many people today trade currencies or indexes. There is not a true supply as a contract is "made" at every transaction.

When Wyckoff, and later Tom Williams, said supply is entering. This meant actual contracts coming into the marketplace. The SM was selling what they had. Demand meant they were buying contracts. They could be selling and buying to take profits, but the actual supply would be effected in either case.

With the advent of "naked short selling", one could sell what they don't actually have, but they have to buy it as some point. Preferably at a lower price than they originally sold it. Here again, with stocks we are still talking about actual amounts of tradable shares-supply.

In today's parlance:

Supply is present=selling=short=possible profit taking=weakness.
Demand is present=buying=long=possible profit taking=strength.

This means the words are interchangeable. In spot currencies, supply doesn't change so we can use the word weakness. But many still use the word supply. Obivously, the supply of money (M1, M2,M3,M4 does change, but that is not what we are talking about here when we say supply increases. We mean more sellers are present.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #3,233
  • Sep 6, 2009 3:44pm Sep 6, 2009 3:44pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Thanks for the question.

This is a very advanced question, and I do not think we can look to VSA for the answer. Many people using VSA will look to multiple timeframes to assist in trade entry signals.

........

Personally, I do like the idea of looking at a 5 min. Swiss franc to help trade the 5 min. Euro, rather than looking at a 15 min. Euro and 30 min. Euro to trade the 5 min. Euro. Another possibility is the dollar index itself.

.........

If the is an area you do pursue, please post some examples for all to see and learn from....
Thank you for your reply Hg.

I will have a look at your recommendations and also take your comments on board. Having said that, I must admit that I still have a lot to do for simply finding the set ups properly only by looking at one pair.
I keep finding way too many set up looking things and they end up just not what I think they are. That is the reason of going to 15m TF - perhaps less noise, slower, so more thinking and less rush. Less trades are better to me at this stage.

If, in the future, I will be able to find anything worthy to post I will for sure.

In the meanwhile this is what I found on AUDUSD. It seams that most USD pairs could be traded nicely after "important" news event, as you described the nice set up.
This time AU was in an up trend. The way I see it, this is pretty much a mirror of the EU at this small time interval. So without much description (it would be just fake comment after you already described everything, so I am just trying to draw parallel understanding for myself and by doing so in a post I actually learn a lot I hope):

A: candle of the news release
B: Proffs pushing up-they must be happy with the amount purchased at better prices
C: down bar accompanied by not too much Volume, unable to take out the lower open of previous bar
D: nice Test, I actually consider all 3 down bars as good indications of lack of supply, but this D is just looking really nice - yeah...easy once it is over
E: Had I been at my senses I should have entered long on this bar at breaking the high of the 3 down bars
F: Prior to this bar, the trailing stop (only if used) could be pulled under the low of two bars before. Just looks like weak. Actually I would have closed the position on the bar before F, the Volume just got vanished. Or could have left something in, up trend anyway.

Fun, but by writing this down I already set my mind to look for similar set ups to what HG just described and this is the result of your educational efforts guys and as we know we examine effort VS result here..... No wonder I save many of the posts from this thread. thx



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Kind Regards zol
  • #3,234
  • Sep 6, 2009 4:14pm Sep 6, 2009 4:14pm
Quoting HiddenGap
VSA is based on the teachings of Richard Wyckoff. Wyckoff was a stock trader. In stocks, there is an actual supply-the amount of shares available for trading.

Many people today trade currencies or indexes. There is not a true supply as a contract is "made" at every transaction.

When Wyckoff, and later Tom Williams, said supply is entering. This meant actual contracts coming into the marketplace. The SM was selling what they had. Demand meant they were buying contracts. They could be selling and buying to take profits, but the...

Thank you vey much HG. A nice explanation.
You make money by waiting, not by trading.
  • #3,235
  • Sep 6, 2009 4:33pm Sep 6, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting zoli
Hi all, and Hg. A beautiful chart and post indeed.
Many pairs did similar thing on Friday. I was looking the USDCHF pair and noticed than more often than not it is quite the mirror of EU-to some degree.
The same trade could have been made to the opposite direction as you analysed on the EU - I learned a lot from that.

So my question is, using this correlation, is it a good hint to read both markets and look for clearer signals knowing that they tend to move to the opposite directions? (Hedging is also in question but I do not think it is subject...
If you are interested in trading/using correlations, this link will probably be of interest:

http://www.forexhit.com/analyze-fore...relations.html

Best of luck
  • #3,236
  • Sep 6, 2009 4:37pm Sep 6, 2009 4:37pm
Quoting macman
If you are interested in trading/using correlations, this link will probably be of interest:

http://www.forexhit.com/analyze-fore...relations.html

Best of luck
Thank you very much. Interesting for sure. For some time I will be better of focusing on VSA only, that is my big favorite concept
Kind Regards zol
  • #3,237
  • Sep 7, 2009 2:47am Sep 7, 2009 2:47am
Quoting HiddenGap
What happend to my last two posts?
Quoting Shamus
I am the only one that can ban a poster....
I have been away visiting a sick Grandmother so haven't be here for a couple of days do you have a post# or something else that may help twee find the problem?
HiddenGap,
Shamus speaks the truth.
there are times in FF when some posters whine, disrespect, talk nonsense, etc, & their posts get put in the FF Recycle Bin. most of the time posts by other harmless members get deleted too when these posts are related to or mixed in with the former's posts. expect this to happen from time to time.

Shamus,
what's up with Grandmom, what's the illness?
hope she recovers quickly.
  • #3,238
  • Edited 3:19am Sep 7, 2009 3:08am | Edited 3:19am
As posted elsewhere.....
GM all - just passing by.......easy buy off the Higher Low at FO - it ran up to the resistance area that I have from Fridays High at 1.6410 up to todays R1 at 6440, I TPd early at the 400 level. Sold that area and banked pips as it found support at the 6372 / 30ema confluence so I closed - but missed buying the bounce.

That last push up is looking like a big fakeout / upthrust.....VSA on 15m long wicked candles that have spiked up / down into S/R areas in Cable, Euro and Swissy all showing high vols on long wicks = plenty of supply, so I'm building up shorts - I'll take some profits ~the 6400 area / 30ema and will sell again if it bounces....

US holiday so expect lighter vols this afternoon......BFN
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #3,239
  • Sep 7, 2009 4:33am Sep 7, 2009 4:33am
Islander,
thanks Sir for taking the time to post that here. (i've read this post 'there' first, a little earlier)
  • #3,240
  • Sep 7, 2009 8:32am Sep 7, 2009 8:32am
Hi folks,

just a potential GU set up I spotted in hindsight - I know it did not make money or anything, but I am happy, I did not even spotted these in the past. Step by step in my own speed.

I put some stuff on the chart. I noted 2 potential set ups, a long and a short of which I like the short more. There is a very nice lack of demand in previous supply area. I am sure some guys took this trade.

There are a few abbreviations used by me, not necessarily correct terms, I just like them and they help me to focus and remember what I already noted.

When I read that a bar is potentially weak or strong I just put a W or S to myself to the corresponding direction (W is above the bar as pushing it down potentially). This does not mean to me more than an understanding on that bar as it closes. It may or may not be correct after all.

PT -potential Test
PNS -potential NS - I like to put on these for me in some anticipation so I know what to look for next. If it gets confirmed I just change to Test or No Supply etc...

NDUT- started to be No demand and upthrust combination (low Volume Up thrust if you want) but I just like to use it to emphasis that the bar is accompanied by low Volume and in addition it is pushed down. On its own still not the whole thing, as the supply is not present too much on that bar (no Volume) although demand disappeared.

V- Volume, as the key thing after price

It may be a bit of mess with all the S/R and Open prices, sorry about that.

Thank you very much Shamus, Copi, Mal and HiddenGap for the stuff you may recognize on this chart - all from you.

The MAs just help me not to pull the trigger all the time. Just trying to prevent myself from trading like a maniac (and loosing), rather stalk at this stage.



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Kind Regards zol
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