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  • #194,741
  • Edited 9:43am Sep 5, 2009 4:24am | Edited 9:43am
that's actually a big problem for them, because they must take money from the rest of us.
everything is going down, and everybody knows that = everybody is positioning for the big move. but the thing is, if we are profitable, then smart money is losing - so what would you do if you were them?

first, manipulate the markets to go against the obvious trend. and oh boy have we seen this! going once...
second, manipulate the news to turn everybody in the wrong direction. going twice...
and third, because after all how long can you possibly manipulate the markets against the main trend, well, then you implement some new rules that would somehow prevent us from trading/profiting/etc. and sold! to the big shark in black suit from the first row.

everybody is turning smart and making money from markets. it is becoming increasingly difficult to trick the herd, so they must come with something to prevent this money leakage to average joe... if manipulating price and media doesn't work anymore, then manipulating the rules of the game is next.

Quoting ukdaytrader
...
Everyone is getting ready to short everything and I think the smart money knows that.
...
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #194,742
  • Edited 4:44am Sep 5, 2009 4:43am | Edited 4:44am
Quoting Scrat
first, manipulate the markets to go against the obvious trend. and oh boy have we seen this! going once...

The first move was just a correction to the daily QQE + MACD positive/3rd wave/ 50EMA, the second - 4hr candle closed over a BB`s middle line + MACD positive/5th wave/. It was a 400pips move/200 - 3rd wave & 200 - 5th wave/.
  • #194,743
  • Edited 5:03am Sep 5, 2009 4:51am | Edited 5:03am
Quoting ukdaytrader
I have absolutely no bias for the coming week. BUT



Everyone is getting ready to short everything and I think the smart money knows that.

This isn't about any TA we may see, because once the volumes kick in, any summer TA will prove fruitless.

I'm in the short camp too if i'm honest, but I can see some quite significant upside first.

We'll see.....
Sorry mate, I have to say what;s bothering me with the term SMART MONEY:

I prefer to say Insider's Money, or leaked Insider Information used by Big Players.. Nothing here is Smart for ME...
I know that a lot's of books and traders are using the same term, but it is an asalult for the rest of PPL..

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  • #194,744
  • Sep 5, 2009 5:09am Sep 5, 2009 5:09am
Quoting Piters
Sorry mate, I have to say what;s bothering me with the term SMART MONEY:

I prefer to say Insider's Money, or leaked Insider Information used by Big Players.. Nothing here is Smart for ME...
I know that a lot's of books and traders are using the same term, but it is an asalult for the rest of PPL..

Piters, what book are you citing? Could you post its name, please
  • #194,745
  • Sep 5, 2009 5:13am Sep 5, 2009 5:13am
Quoting Maks
Piters, what book are you citing? Could you post its name, please
some excerpts from the net I collected long time ago...
  • #194,746
  • Sep 5, 2009 5:41am Sep 5, 2009 5:41am
Quoting Piters
some excerpts from the net I collected long time ago...
Yep there is no doubt the automated system with advanced algorithms pushing price in any direction they want.

I realized this a few months ago while was watching PA near emas at 5-10 seconds TF.
I bet it works even on smaller TFs such as microseconds perhaps. No one retail trader can do that.

Thats simply amazing and also frustrating when u took wrong direction.

Imagine bank trader operator with two buttons available in his console

enable uptrend mode
disable uptrend mode

  • #194,747
  • Sep 5, 2009 5:47am Sep 5, 2009 5:47am
why do we have to nag abt bull or bear since we do not provide signal service or managing someone's account...
@msniper not everyone was bear when gj was at 149, i called bullish divergence and possible target of 150.20 my first plan and it work , so why would anyone care about that when PA can go against u sometime, i think what matter overall winning...@malc this is one of the great guys here with VSA, i know VSA is not for only day trade it's the background of what is happening and could happen in the future..
i think we all trying possible best to catch those thieves trying to blew our acc with the trap, msniper take it easy and do ur thang ..
plan your trade and trade your plan...
wish u all lovely weekend.. party
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #194,748
  • Sep 5, 2009 5:48am Sep 5, 2009 5:48am
Quoting ukdaytrader
I have absolutely no bias for the coming week. BUT

The volumes have been low this summer, but the markets don't lie. There is still alot of money on the sidelines and until the big boys can persuade investment houses and pension funds they are missing out, more upside should not be ruled out.

Everyone is getting ready to short everything and I think the smart money knows that.

This isn't about any TA we may see, because once the volumes kick in, any summer TA will prove fruitless.

I'm in the short camp too if i'm honest, but I can see some...
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  • #194,749
  • Sep 5, 2009 6:52am Sep 5, 2009 6:52am
Quoting Scrat
that's actually a big problem for them, because they must take money from the rest of us.
everything is going down, and everybody knows that = everybody is positioning for the big move. but the thing is, if we are profitable, then smart money is losing - so what would you do if you were them?

first, manipulate the markets to go against the obvious trend. and oh boy have we seen this! going once...
second, manipulate the news to turn everybody in the wrong direction. going twice...
and third, because after all how long can you possibly...
Did you know that the fact you are pro or smart money or whtever it's called in forex doesn't mean per definition that you always make money. Also pro's lose and win. They are not a syndicate or so. Usually they are rivals that fight each other and find out who's the biggest shark between them. Often I do not understand what is meant by the word "forex pro" on this forum. Don't think those people are wondering what the positions of retail traders is like all they long. They don't monitor that as they don't give a shit! It's too small anyways to be of interest. I think in the stockmarket things might work a bit different but in forex trading retailers aren't of interest.
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  • #194,750
  • Edited 7:19am Sep 5, 2009 6:53am | Edited 7:19am
Quoting ukdaytrader
OK. 4hr and 1hr charts.
Gann and QQE indis on both.
When 4hr Gann AND QQE share the same direction, refer to the 1 hr chart.
When 1hr chart matches the 4hr setup, take the trade taking S+R into consideration.
Ideally the 1hr should change before entering the trade.
The 50 line on the QQEs are an important signal too.
Added extra is the use of the 5 SMA for exits.

What do I win?
just looked at this on the 4hr and it doesnt seem to work very well. dropped a gannhilo activator v2 indi with lookback 10, and a qqe with SF 4 and rsi 14 on it, and there seems to be a lot of fakeouts on the 4hr in this downtrend where the gann flips just before the trend reverses back downwards (infact it does it on every retrace that happened in the downtrend).

also the qqe is ALWAYS pointing in the same direction of the gann when the gann flips, usually its pointing that way a few bars before the gann flips. so basically its not really about when gann and qqe share same direction, as qqe always points the same direction as the gann

i will say, during this entire downtrend the qqe only ever touched just above the 50 line once, in that 4 day range in the middle. But right now its at 57 and pointing up strongly on 4h, hardly looking good for bears based on this, although the 1h rsi/qqe are on 70 so a retrace of some sort is probably likely before any further up move anyway. infact on the 1h, the rsi is now at its highest level since we hit the 163 top and look what happened after that, so there may yet be hope for bears, infact i may even short it right here at the 152.50 resistance for at least a retrace if not a test of 149.

and this qqe looks exactly like the rsi, is it just a slightly smoothed rsi? seems like i could get the rsi to look exactly the same just by increasing the period slightly from 14.
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  • #194,751
  • Sep 5, 2009 7:27am Sep 5, 2009 7:27am
Been long into NFP, then got stopped out just above break even during NFP release.
I have traded the NFP movement for a 122pip rally in 4min and after that lost track in between work but wanted to take a long...geppy normally closes good on a Friday.

The 4hour was/is still strong. In this counter trend moves the daily will be to late to base a trade on, therefore the 4hour is strong enough for me atm.

The RSI on 4hour
The RSI on 1hour, when I see this falling it may start to signal the top of this retrace.

I am looking for any decent pull pack just before Asia open to take a long.

If it keeps shooting up before Asia open on Sunday then it will mean that the trade from after NFP release lows 151.50 into weekend close was missed. And will then be time to wait and see until the 4hour turns for new shorts.

On the upside:
153.30 weekly Pivot PP still a key level, after that retrace 38 and then retrace 50 of the down move from 163 to 149.

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  • #194,752
  • Sep 5, 2009 7:45am Sep 5, 2009 7:45am
Quoting ewokuk
just looked at this on the 4hr and it doesnt seem to work very well. dropped a gannhilo activator v2 indi with lookback 10, and a qqe with SF 4 and rsi 14 on it, and there seems to be a lot of fakeouts on the 4hr in this downtrend where the gann flips just before the trend reverses back downwards (infact it does it on every retrace that happened in the downtrend).

also the qqe is ALWAYS pointing in the same direction of the gann when the gann flips, usually its pointing that way a few bars before the gann flips. so basically its not really about...
Good job, my own analysis point me to use indicators solely for OB/OS and divergences as references and not trade trigger, other than that its all in the PA. I'm no expert but I read somewhere that market is in constant evolution and one has to adapt, so this Aus strategy may have been profitable at one point and less at other times. I wonder if anyone is trading this stategy right now.
  • #194,753
  • Sep 5, 2009 7:58am Sep 5, 2009 7:58am
cross`n`flip
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  • #194,754
  • Sep 5, 2009 8:02am Sep 5, 2009 8:02am
Quoting Sunny66
Good job, my own analysis point me to use indicators solely for OB/OS and divergences as references and not trade trigger, other than that its all in the PA. I'm no expert but I read somewhere that market is in constant evolution and one has to adapt, so this Aus strategy may have been profitable at one point and less at other times. I wonder if anyone is trading this stategy right now.
i dont tend to look at divergence, to me its meaningless. if price goes up and then consolidates for a bit, youll get divergence. doesnt mean its going to go up or down. even on a double bottom, if its got divergence or not has no effect on whether the bottom will hold, i think due to the nature of the indicators, most double tops and double bottoms will have divergence, and i dont think having divergence or not makes any difference to whether they hold or continue, but if someone can prove it does then i may start looking.

i generally dont even look that much at ob/os either BUT I did notice earlier that 1h rsi is at its highest level right now (only just at 70) since we were at the high at 163 when it hit 73, and THAT I will take notice of because to me that is significant. also noticed every time the 1h rsi gets in this area, even in an uptrend we have SOME sort of pullback. thats not to say it cant go up another 150 pips from here without a pullback, but its very unlikely looking at how many times its done this before which isnt many, so to me a short form here has the percentages on my side.

so i think in asia or london monday we will have some sort of retrace at least, if not a continuation of the downtrend. im going to short from here.

i wonder if asia will wake up monday morning and think 'oooh goodie! they pushed it right up to 152.50, now we can short the crap out of it at a discount!'. the nfp spike cleared out any short stops up to 152.70, the move up after got people into longs, so the pros might have fun now ramming it down and collecting all those stops on the way down? or they might want to take it up further first but 152.30 and 152.50 were significant resistance, stops already gone from there so maybe no need to go higher
  • #194,755
  • Sep 5, 2009 8:13am Sep 5, 2009 8:13am
Quoting ewokuk
i wonder if asia will wake up monday morning and think 'oooh goodie! they pushed it right up to 152.50, now we can short the crap out of it at a discount!'.
This is something that I don't get. Malcolmb mentioned, that NY is pushing the price up to sell at discount o Tuesday, when they get back. But it's Asia and Europe who'll get this discount. So what was the sense in pushing the pair up? They do spend money on it, don't they?

I think that after such move up there will be a retrace in Asia. Don't think it will go down to 149 for retest, but for now might get to 151.30 setting the new low for the day and hitting the stops of the bulls.

Do you know how the market movers work? Do they cooperate? Like Asia brings the price down taking bulls stops (I don't mean stops of individual traders, but of competing market movers) and NY brings it up taking bears stops?
  • #194,756
  • Sep 5, 2009 8:30am Sep 5, 2009 8:30am
Quoting Maks
This is something that I don't get. Malcolmb mentioned, that NY is pushing the price up to sell at discount o Tuesday, when they get back. But it's Asia and Europe who'll get this discount. So what was the sense in pushing the pair up? They do spend money on it, don't they?

I think that after such move up there will be a retrace in Asia. Don't think it will go down to 149 for retest, but for now might get to 151.30 setting the new low for the day and hitting the stops of the bulls.

Do you know how the market movers work? Do they cooperate?...
My thought was that the pair naturally moves up since the strongest currency is GBP by definition. On friday the move up after nfp made me think maybe it was sellers removing their trade realizing this wasn't going to go their way going into the weekend ? traders do not like to leave open trades during weekend especially long weekend. Does this make any sense?
  • #194,757
  • Sep 5, 2009 8:41am Sep 5, 2009 8:41am
Quoting Sunny66
traders do not like to leave open trades during weekend especially long weekend. Does this make any sense?
It could be the case with smaller traders. But imagine how much does it take to give an impetus to the market to start moving in definite direction? Lots of money. So, if they decide to move it, they go and leave the bombs (pending orders with huge lots) on the upper levels in case thay cannot cope with the bulls (if they want to send the pair down). Those pending orders are just like mines, and only they know where the mines are on this field. Don't think they would be closing positions just because of the weekend. I guess they have 24 hours duty, in shifts
  • #194,758
  • Sep 5, 2009 8:46am Sep 5, 2009 8:46am
Quoting dfptommyj
it is bearish, like all jpy pairs, and this fridays close might be actualy another bearish top.....
JUST NOTICE HOW THIS DOWNMOVE LOVES .382 FIB, AND THIS WAS ONLY WAVE 3...
it also looks like retesting of the broken trendline on the daily....
so we may see 147 by WED :-)
Why always giving day that geppy will arrive at 147 on wednesday or tuesday or friday. Last week malcom bet with someone geppy will arrive 147 on friday but didnt fall to 147 on that day and his losing his bet. Pls bro dont be so sure when geppy will arrive on that day.
  • #194,759
  • Sep 5, 2009 8:49am Sep 5, 2009 8:49am
another conspiracy theory to add to the list:

Everyone was looking at the 147-148 area to take profits on shorts and look for opening longs. The pro's know this as much as anyone else. Would the pro's rather let people take profits on shorts and open new longs at the bottom......or would they rather start a new uptrend themselves before it gets to the bottom that everyone is looking for, and so get themselves in early and collect all the stops of the shorts on the way up?

Meanwhile the shorts are thinking ok its just a retrace same as before, ill hold my shorts and add more on this pullback! The pro's know this and sit there rubbing their hands in glee knowing they are going to take the price right up and screw all the bears. The pro's then stop the up move on sunday and take it lower by 100-150 pips, enticing more bears to open more shorts, before they finally send the pair into orbit, completely butchering the poor bears.

does this sound possible to anyone? or is my conspiracy theory full of shit
  • #194,760
  • Sep 5, 2009 8:55am Sep 5, 2009 8:55am
Quoting ewokuk
another conspiracy theory to add to the list:

does this sound possible to anyone? or is my conspiracy theory full of shit
So, now we know whom to blame for losses It is not inappropriate money management, it is not bad planning of entries, it is conspiracy and the banks are behind it! Uncle Scrooge!

I do not think that someone can have such a fine tuned system to stop the prises at exact levels. The group of banks, for example, could give an impetus simultaneously to the pair so that the majority would join them, and than jump off the train before it crashes. But I doubt they can precisely move the pair from one level to another.
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