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  • #401
  • Sep 4, 2009 11:09am Sep 4, 2009 11:09am
Quoting Limstylz

A blind guess...
No worries Limstylz, but why make a 'blind' guess? I think the 'order flow' or witches brew or whatever its called is obvious on a chart, so why try and outsmart it by second guessing?

Wasp (http://www.forexfactory.com/member.php?u=99079) said it better than me that there is so much information screaming at you/me/us on a simple chart...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swissy.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #402
  • Sep 4, 2009 11:15am Sep 4, 2009 11:15am
Quoting AstonDan
No worries Limstylz, but why make a 'blind' guess? I think the 'order flow' or witches brew or whatever its called is obvious on a chart, so why try and outsmart it by second guessing?
A blind guess, as it was a brief look. I couldn't be bothered to analyse it properly... Friday feeling
  • #403
  • Sep 4, 2009 12:36pm Sep 4, 2009 12:36pm
Quoting AstonDan
We're a hundred pips out Peter but on Sterling Swiss i don't think that's a great deal and on a weekly perspective, even less.

Either way i agree with you. It looks like a level with value for more sellers to come on board.

On short term basis (minutes) you could probably place sells and buys at 1.75 and scalp off 10 - 20 pips either way while the longs sell their positions, the shorts take up new positions and the manipulaters manipulate.
There is bound to be some sort of trading to be done between this level and 1.7600. It's just that I'm not really a scalper by instinct so tend to wait for something that clearly shows which direction I should trade.

So here are two views of the next Daily Close region which is a technique I tend to use as a guide on the pairs I do trade (EURUSD - GBPJPY) when dealing with range trading.

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Attached Images
  • #404
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:06pm Sep 4, 2009 1:06pm
I was completely wrong on Swissy. Well, I did say I was useless until I see the play happening...
  • #405
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:09pm Sep 4, 2009 1:09pm
Quoting Limstylz
I was completely wrong on Swissy. Well, I did say I was useless until I see the play happening...
Lol. I hate dollar swiss and i never trust the SNB.
  • #406
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:59pm Sep 4, 2009 1:59pm
Hello All,
I've been following this thread for awhile...here is my input.
I have gone from a complete novice to a profitable trader on this very site in the last 4 years. It took about 3 of those years to really understand some of the things that have already been posted in this thread.

Now, I'm not saying I know everything, or even a lot, I try to continue to learn each and everyday, but some of you are making it harder than it truly is.
Everything you need to understand has already made an appearance in this thread.
Sit and meditate, think really hard about the who, why, and when part...That 'aha' moment is an inherent result to truly understanding who you are buying from and why they are selling to you at this time.
Throw in a quality understanding of supply and demand and you should be able to trade your account into the green.

Does strong buying make price increase or is it a lack of selling?
Does strong selling make price decrease or is it a lack of buying?

Of course, its easier to understand how to trade than it is to actually do it, because placing that sell order when it seems everyone and there dog is buying goes against every human instinct...but you must realize, when the last buyer is in, where must price go?

Some of you will see this post as a regurgitation of this thread, but like I said, basically everything you need to know has already been mentioned in this thread somewhere, in many cases, multiple times...

Who, Why, When, a basic understanding of support/resistance (demand,supply), and some brain power...

Good luck to all, may your journey be easier than mine has been...and it should be b/c of this thread.....don't get caught up in the indicator non-sense, professionals only use them to know where the amateurs will buy/sell to them...
I've probably said too much...

guten tag!
(I live in Germany now)
  • #407
  • Sep 4, 2009 2:52pm Sep 4, 2009 2:52pm
Funny you should say that, I have been testing (in demo) counter Tech Indicator trades that go against the majority and it's proving very profitable - if I have time I'll write up an article on my antics.
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #408
  • Sep 4, 2009 3:17pm Sep 4, 2009 3:17pm
Quoting jpat1023
Hello All,
I've been following this thread for awhile...here is my input.
I have gone from a complete novice to a profitable trader on this very site in the last 4 years. It took about 3 of those years to really understand some of the things that have already been posted in this thread.

Now, I'm not saying I know everything, or even a lot, I try to continue to learn each and everyday, but some of you are making it harder than it truly is.
Everything you need to understand has already made an appearance in this thread.
Sit and meditate, think...

Nicely said, keep it simple. It doesn't take too much brain power though. Don't think too much. And I agree with bleek's comment, indicators can work for you if you have the basics and know how to use those indi's in line with true supply/demand. But keep it simple. You have enough to deal with (RE: your psychology), so why complicate matters. Keep it RULE based. Easy to follow.

I've probably given too much away (doh! I love that 'catchphrase' - how many times has that been said in one way or other in this thread..by those that know 'IT'......).
  • #409
  • Sep 4, 2009 6:59pm Sep 4, 2009 6:59pm
Quoting Cellar Door
Professionals do not use charts at all.
Some do, some don't...usually depends on the type of trading they do...many that started on our side of the street (without access to an orderbook) find it helpful to pull up a chart sometimes......Had you added a modifier such as "some" or "many" to the beginning of your sentence it would be much more correct.

It also depends on how you define "professional". I define it as someone who trades for a living, access to an orderbook is not a requirement to be deemed a "professional"...Your definition may deviate from mine...Either way, having or not having this information does not affect our trading, so why fill the heads of novices with anymore mysticism than is already associated with these markets?

(your answer should be b/c we need them to sell to us when we want to buy and buy from us when we want to sell, but c'mon, how 'bout a little compassion lol)

wow, I typed way to much...sorry for any clutter this may add to the thread.
  • #410
  • Sep 4, 2009 7:13pm Sep 4, 2009 7:13pm
Quoting Cellar Door
I am talking about the people who knock out your stoplosses, trade with large amounts of money and do not need to see a chart to make a profit.
Ok then, your position is noted.
But just for the record, I don't use stoplosses anymore, well not in the conventional sense (same as op), not b/c I'm never wrong, just because I know why stoplosses are the first thing preached to newbs (its already been discussed in this thread)...I've already been down that road, then I pulled a u-turn...so they aren't knocking out my stoplosses...

edit: you added to your quote, and my simple answer is an orderbook would be freakin' great, but not a necessity...
  • #411
  • Sep 4, 2009 7:21pm Sep 4, 2009 7:21pm
Quoting Cellar Door
You are correct that is why they teach people to use tight stops, any large firm who offers training will always tell you to use tight stops, the thing is you can use tight stops you just need to know where to put them.
I agree, but if you really understand what your doing you should be able to place a trade, monitor it during its infancy, and then watch as liquidity on one side of the book or the other dries up and price moves in the anticipated direction....and if that's the case, why put your stoploss order on the books?

That's simply telling the guy on the other side of the screen exactly where you'll break...of course, we don't move 100's of lots, so it doesn't matter, but I still say screw that...I'm not showing my hand.
  • #412
  • Sep 4, 2009 7:45pm Sep 4, 2009 7:45pm
Quoting Cellar Door
Something else for you to ponder.

What appears in the market is not true....this is why so many people lose at this "game".
sounds a bit cryptic.

What isn't true? The current price?
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #413
  • Sep 4, 2009 8:09pm Sep 4, 2009 8:09pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
sounds a bit cryptic.

What isn't true? The current price?
The market is always right.

But market participants may push price one way or another in order to get in at a better price. This has already been discussed in this thread, but I'll give a real world example that you can then apply to the market.

Let's pretend car dealers have an order book just as banks have an order book. You are going to buy a car that is currently at $1000 dollars, would you put in at order at $1100 or $900? Say you were severely drunk and you put in an order for $1100, do you think the car dealer will push the price up so that they can sell at a price that is higher than currently available? Of course.

Now apply that logic to the market.
If Banks want to get short, but they can see buy orders slightly above the next resistance, why wouldn't they push price higher? Someone has already offered to buy from them at a price that is higher then they can currently get......just as the car dealer would sell to the highest bidder, a bank would sell the the highest bidder.

Like I said, you guys are trying to make it too complicated...Out of self respect, I can't lay it out any easier, I had to do a lot of hard work to figure these things out...
If you get stuck somewhere in your trading journey, just apply some logic...
  • #414
  • Sep 4, 2009 8:30pm Sep 4, 2009 8:30pm
Quoting Cellar Door
Now goose have think about when it would be easiest for them to move the market to a better price ...
lol goose? If that's a Top Gun reference I'm definitely not goose...

And yes, there are easier times for this to happen, but it doesn't mean they can't do it other times as well...All they have to do is push price a little and let the herd mentality take over, soak up all the amateur orders and then watch as their own stoplosses help to push the market against them...lol Eur/Usd was perfect example today............I really do love this market.
  • #415
  • Sep 4, 2009 8:48pm Sep 4, 2009 8:48pm
2 things Cellar...
1. you should have left your post as it was, for no particular reason...
2. I wish I wouldn't have watched that clip.

Now I can no longer be a fan of a classic America 80's movie.....that's freakin' hilarious...Quinton sold me lol

Damnit, all b/c of my ignorance...I don't know why I didn't realize that was directed at goose lol
  • #416
  • Sep 4, 2009 8:58pm Sep 4, 2009 8:58pm
Quoting Cellar Door
Here is something for you all to ponder, since you are talking about what is behind price overflow.

Lets say that you want to find the next trend reversal on GBP/USD, to do this you need to look for a trend reversal first in the commodity pairs then the yen pairs and then the denominator, then you will see the trend reversal in the others.
I'm still pondering what price "overflow" is. At first I assumed it was a typo, but since you typed it in your post heading as well as in the body, I guess it must be some new terminology that newbies like us don't know about yet.

  • #417
  • Sep 4, 2009 9:09pm Sep 4, 2009 9:09pm
Quoting Cellar Door
I was just quoting the terms that were used to open this thread, i would look at it as what is behind price action.
I don't know Cellar...I don't remember seeing it in this thread, although I could be wrong, I didn't read it all.....I think you should have gone with 'typo' lol.
  • #418
  • Sep 4, 2009 9:20pm Sep 4, 2009 9:20pm
Quoting Cellar Door
yes a typo it was or possibly a freudian slip.
haha wow, freudian slip is even better...let's go with that...



Ok, back on topic, orderflow!
  • #419
  • Sep 4, 2009 9:29pm Sep 4, 2009 9:29pm
Quoting Cellar Door
Yes orderflow it is.....

Capitalist it seems you do not like all this cryptic talk.


Markets are like a flag in the wind.

Grasshopper looks and says, "the flag is moving."

Capitalist looks and says, "No grasshopper...the wind is moving."

Master Po looks at grasshopper and Capitalist and says, "Not the flag, not the wind... it is mind that is moving."
  • #420
  • Sep 4, 2009 9:45pm Sep 4, 2009 9:45pm
"Losing an illusion makes you wiser than finding a truth" - Ludwig Borne

This applies directly to a statement I made earlier...anyone care to guess what that statement is?



edit: Cellar, gotta love The Matrix.....if someone doesn't, then they simply don't understand it.
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