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  • #361
  • Sep 3, 2009 5:51pm Sep 3, 2009 5:51pm
some more on OI much of wich is already known

http://www.nasdaq.com/investing/forex-open-interest.stm
  • #362
  • Sep 3, 2009 6:35pm Sep 3, 2009 6:35pm
Quoting Skracor247
Hey slim please see post #1. That's all it took for me, and if I can get IT so can you!

Good Luck
Well since I'm not one of the mystical kung-fu cryptic thread kinds of posters... I'll just blurt out exactly what I see on those charts. If the big important FF "insider super duper secret holders" want to send me PMs telling me not to give it away, I guess they'll have to pound sand.

All three charts show annotations which pertain to a single price bar. Each bar does the following:

1. It opens at or near an area of consolidation which is a previously tested area of S/R.

2. Price then moves away from the open (obviously) either to break the S/R area or to bounce off of it. In the first two charts it's a breakout, and in the third it's a bounce. This classic "textbook behavior" draws in the herd, forming the first wick of the candle.

3. The bar then proceeds to reverse and move past its open in the other direction. The herd craps in its pants.


Now I'll wait for the angry emails from George Soros.
  • #363
  • Sep 3, 2009 7:34pm Sep 3, 2009 7:34pm
If you mysteriously disappear, I guess we'll know what happened...

Outside all the cryptic stuff, if the thread did anything, it was to think about order flow and think about how the market is structured. Motivated me to get book on micro structure and see things in different perspective and try to understand how the brokers are working things on their end.. I'll put that in the win column.


Quoting capitalist88
Well since I'm not one of the mystical kung-fu cryptic thread kinds of posters... I'll just blurt out exactly what I see on those charts. If the big important FF "insider super duper secret holders" want to send me PMs telling me not to give it away, I guess they'll have to pound sand.

All three charts show annotations which pertain to a single price bar. Each bar does the following:

1. It opens at or near an area of consolidation which is a previously tested area of S/R.

2. Price then moves away from the open (obviously)...
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #364
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:17pm Sep 3, 2009 8:17pm
Well I certainly can't disagree with th

hold on, someone's pounding at my doo
alk;faj

al;kjkasjlnmz';jnz.m,''/s/s//
  • #365
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:17pm Sep 3, 2009 9:17pm
just to subscribe to this interesting thread.

Please keep it up.

RR
  • #366
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:30pm Sep 3, 2009 9:30pm
Quoting capitalist88
Well I certainly can't disagree with th

hold on, someone's pounding at my doo
alk;faj

al;kjkasjlnmz';jnz.m,''/s/s//
I think I can say for many. We will miss Capitalist88.
And grateful for his cracking this secret code.
RIP
  • #367
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:50pm Sep 3, 2009 9:50pm
Quoting pizdun
wow a great thread..

"Am i good enough to adapt by increasing the SPEED at which i process orderflow?"
That's your edge once you 'understand'.It's the SPEED at which you PROCESS ORDERFLOW."

waiting for PA confirmation seems to directly contradict this speed criteria..

oi my head hurts
Thats a pretty good summary, ( despite your handle )

In regards to speed, I think he meant it, as player or a fighter analyzing your opponent.
Whoever fastest on his feet (outthinks) wins.

You seem to be on a right track.
Udachi
  • #368
  • Sep 4, 2009 2:07am Sep 4, 2009 2:07am
Quoting capitalist88
Well since I'm not one of the mystical kung-fu cryptic thread kinds of posters... I'll just blurt out exactly what I see on those charts. If the big important FF "insider super duper secret holders" want to send me PMs telling me not to give it away, I guess they'll have to pound sand.

All three charts show annotations which pertain to a single price bar. Each bar does the following:

1. It opens at or near an area of consolidation which is a previously tested area of S/R.

2. Price then moves away from the open (obviously)...
Hi Scott,

I was looking at these characteristics in the original posts of this thread, but they still don't give us anything new, its just the same old TA probability.

That's why this thread and it's author has both questioned and confused me.

I look at the charts he posted, I think "I knew that", I then look at his cryptic clues and think... "well if I knew 'that', then what else am I missing?".

Tail chasing indeed.
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #369
  • Sep 4, 2009 2:08am Sep 4, 2009 2:08am
recently we had a mini discussion (http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3012495&postcount=286) about options.
just FYI, for those interested.

to illuminate us further about that topic at hand,
Sir Paul/gammase1 has generously shared this response over PM:
(his answers follow the phrases/sentences in bold)

----------------
"EURUSD dealers report more trading of 1.44's this morning in London"

This means there a great deal of buying interest of call options on EURUSD, with a strike of 1.44, expiring Friday. Basically, providing protection post-NFP.

"The well hyped Asian CB barriers at 1.4450 are due to expire around 22 September and should continue to cap any fresh advance"

This means that large amounts of spot transactions, selling EURUSD, are expected between now and 22 Sep, in order to keep spot below 1.4450, thereby ensuring the underlying related options remain in play. If spot moves above 1.4450, even for a brief second, any options with standard knock-out barriers set at 1.4450 will immediately terminate.

"1.44's and 13.5 level"

As mentioned above, the 1.44's are the strikes on call options, expiring Friday. The 13.5 level will be the implied volatility (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Implied_volatility) that is used by option market makers in pricing options with this strike, expiring on Friday.

Implied volatility is the key ingredient in the pricing of options and managing the associated market risk that comes with managing a bucket of option trades.

The higher the actual (realised) volatility in EURUSD spot prices, the higher the predicted (implied) volatility will be for future periods. The higher the implied volatility quoted in the derivatives markets, the more expensive it is to purchase FX options.
  • #370
  • Sep 4, 2009 2:37am Sep 4, 2009 2:37am
The more I look at the first page of charts, the more I aligned it with my own pure TA and the less I can see any difference?

They show:

- Support & Resistance Levels
- Price Action historical and present, how did/does price enter the level
- Pivots and congestion, how did price react at these levels
- Anticipation in price action going forward

The original post is asking us to think about who is on the other side and why price reacts the way it does, but it doesn't always work as anticipated.

For example stop running doesn't always occur, so the question is of entry, is it above or below, before or after the initial move etc?

And so if stop running doesn't occur that would suggest the particular level is a strong area of resistance and another bounce off in the future is probable. Right?
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #371
  • Sep 4, 2009 2:55am Sep 4, 2009 2:55am
A chart describing the exact thing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD _04-09-2009.gif Size: 29 KB
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #372
  • Sep 4, 2009 2:59am Sep 4, 2009 2:59am
I think the fact that there are a small number of these setups per pair over an irregular period, leads me to believe that they are 'targeted' entries, hence the reason that they still look similar to your charts, Bleek.

So where you actually DO see this happening, whoever is running stops, has more than just SR confirming the trade entry (at this point I still presume orderbook and/or other insider information is being used).

Probably at this point, the best we can do (until we are privvy to either a major orderbook and/or other insider info) is just be aware that stop hunting is a possible outcome and take pipmutts suggestion of scaled in entries and wider stops (if you choose to use them).
  • #373
  • Sep 4, 2009 3:01am Sep 4, 2009 3:01am
Quoting Bleek
A chart describing the exact thing.
...but your short doesn't...

EDIT: Scratch that, looking at it again, neither do, but they are good examples of SR at work. Perhaps the first short at the beginning of your chart fits the criteria though. Is that an EU chart?

Edit 2: Just noticed it is EU
  • #374
  • Sep 4, 2009 3:10am Sep 4, 2009 3:10am
Quoting Limstylz
Probably at this point, the best we can do (until we are privvy to either a major orderbook and/or other insider info) is just be aware that stop hunting is a possible outcome and take pipmutts suggestion of scaled in entries and wider stops (if you choose to use them).
I wouldn't ever run without stops, running without a stop would imply that you're always right otherwise it's only a matter of time before you take some serious pain!
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #375
  • Sep 4, 2009 3:17am Sep 4, 2009 3:17am
Quoting Bleek
I wouldn't ever run without stops, running without a stop would imply that you're always right otherwise it's only a matter of time before you take some serious pain!
Putting my head on the block here but not necessarily Bleek.

It all depends on your perspective.
  • #376
  • Sep 4, 2009 3:23am Sep 4, 2009 3:23am
Quoting AstonDan
Putting my head on the block here but not necessarily Bleek.

It all depends on your perspective.
...but that would imply you would always need to be right. We only have to look at the charts to see the market run away in minutes on occasion, a false move with no stop in those areas would make for serious hits!

I can just about understand having a disaster stop 50+ pips away from entry as a just in case, but I still like to place 'correct' stops appropriate to the trade.

One thing I will say is since the start of this post I've been questioning everything, and by no means am I blaming anyone here, but because of this new found cynicism I've has less conviction about my trading and hence have placed less trades and made less money! I have Larry Harris's book sat here, perhaps now would be a good time to step away and start crunching through that?
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #377
  • Sep 4, 2009 3:29am Sep 4, 2009 3:29am
Quoting Bleek
...but that would imply you would always need to be right.
Or how you manage being wrong? It depends on how close you are to the market IMO. Shorter term, yes, price can run away from you very quickly but longer term is a much slower and drawnout process which give you a greater opportunity to manage your drawdown more effectively and allow YOU to choose when you exit the trade and at what price.

Different strokes for different folks i suppose.

Nice chart by the way
  • #378
  • Sep 4, 2009 3:33am Sep 4, 2009 3:33am
Quoting Bleek
...but that would imply you would always need to be right. We only have to look at the charts to see the market run away in minutes on occasion, a false move with no stop in those areas would make for serious hits!

I can just about understand having a disaster stop 50+ pips away from entry as a just in case, but I still like to place 'correct' stops appropriate to the trade.
I meant run without a hard stop, not without a mental stop. Granted, this needs discipline, but if you are a stop runner, your mindset is to counter stop hunting against you. If you use a mental stop for this, you can avoid getting taken out by spikes and still close your position once you know you are wrong. Dangerous?... yes, would I have the balls to trade like that?... probably not...
  • #379
  • Sep 4, 2009 3:34am Sep 4, 2009 3:34am
Quoting AstonDan
Or how you manage being wrong? It depends on how close you are to the market IMO. Shorter term, yes, price can run away from you very quickly but longer term is a much slower and drawnout process which give you a greater opportunity to manage your drawdown more effectively and allow YOU to choose when you exit the trade and at what price.

Different strokes for different folks i suppose.

Nice chart by the way
True, on a longer timeframe of say 4HR + you'd be looking to get in a price that offers good value and therefore expect the trade to run for much longer and so yes, stops after the initial entry would be more a case of catching a reversal or profit.

I went from trading larger timeframes down to 15m as it suited my style, but as I say in the above post it seems this thread has dented my mojo [baby].
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #380
  • Sep 4, 2009 3:38am Sep 4, 2009 3:38am
I attach a chart for consideration.

It is EURUSD. To me it looks like a stophunt occurred to get the entity into a trade which subsequently went long from the lowest point for about 200 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: stop hunt.gif Size: 18 KB
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