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MTF Trix system

  • #2,021
  • Sep 3, 2009 12:55pm Sep 3, 2009 12:55pm
Quoting Gleneagles
Angus,

Yes, I will consider 30 5 longs only, AFTER the news event if the average daily range is not at the xtreme.

Short 30 5 , no thank you.

Short 60 15 5, yes, I will consider it, if the pullback was far enough to generate a new signal.
Angus,

Hopefully I am not confusing you?

I don`t trade each and every signal I see.
I look at the trend, average range for the day etc before I pull the trigger.
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #2,022
  • Sep 3, 2009 1:11pm Sep 3, 2009 1:11pm
Quoting Gleneagles
Angus,

Hopefully I am not confusing you?

I don`t trade each and every signal I see.
I look at the trend, average range for the day etc before I pull the trigger.
Gleneagles,

Yes, no, actually I'm not sure. I've been confused for a long time.

The reason I asked concerning that particular chart is I'm trying to ascertain when you would consider the up-trend exhausted and a new trend beginning, either a continuation or a reversal using the MTF indicators.
  • #2,023
  • Sep 3, 2009 1:18pm Sep 3, 2009 1:18pm
Quoting angus
Gleneagles,

Yes, no, actually I'm not sure. I've been confused for a long time.

The reason I asked concerning that particular chart is I'm trying to ascertain when you would consider the up-trend exhausted and a new trend beginning, either a continuation or a reversal using the MTF indicators.
Using the MTF, I will not assume from the 30 5 signal that the trend is reversing. The Trix settings of 3 1 1 1 is quite sensitive and even a retracement can trigger a 30 5 signal. I prefer 30 5 signals in the direction of the longer TF trends and normally trade them for a small TP of 15-20 pips.

I prefer trading 60 15 5 for a bigger TP.
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #2,024
  • Sep 3, 2009 1:28pm Sep 3, 2009 1:28pm
Quoting Gleneagles
Using the MTF, I will not assume from the 30 5 signal that the trend is reversing. The Trix settings of 3 1 1 1 is quite sensitive and even a retracement can trigger a 30 5 signal. I prefer 30 5 signals in the direction of the longer TF trends and normally trade them for a small TP of 15-20 pips.

I prefer trading 60 15 5 for a bigger TP.
That makes perfect sense, thank you.
I think you'll make a trader of me yet.
  • #2,025
  • Sep 3, 2009 1:33pm Sep 3, 2009 1:33pm
Quoting angus
That makes perfect sense, thank you.
I think you'll make a trader of me yet.
Pick 2 pairs. GBPUSD and one other and try it, you may just be pleasantly surprised to find that it works.
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #2,026
  • Sep 3, 2009 1:35pm Sep 3, 2009 1:35pm
Quoting Gleneagles
Pick 2 pairs. GBPUSD and one other and try it, you may just be pleasantly surprised to find that it works.
I'll be home in December, where must I leave the beer?
  • #2,027
  • Edited 3:09pm Sep 3, 2009 2:42pm | Edited 3:09pm
When you consider trading a system, it is a relatively simple decision.

1) Is it easy to trade in terms of complex analysis and technical indicators?
2) Is the system consistent?
3) Can I fit it into my risk profile?
4) Are there periods of uncomfortable drawdowns?
5) Long term, intraday or scalping?

For me all the factors are important but I want a system that is consistent.
I have stated before that is it far better to be consistantly average than occasionally brilliant.

I will rather pick an average 200 pips/month system than one that will produce 800 pips in one month and lose 1000 the next month.

If you have a consistent system you can gradually increase your risk(within limits) because you have a positive expectancy.

The question that you must ask yourself is can I trade +200 pips a month using this system..or 50 pips a week? Not across multiple pairs..one pair.

In one week you need to hit TP1 twice on a pair?

Mark your charts and decide for yourself whether it is possible.
Then make a decision whether you want to at least try it or prove to yourself that it works OR..it does not work.

You don`t need 54287434 pips per month to be successful as a trader.
You don`t need to be the next Soros.
You need to make 200 pips consistently per month.

You have all the tools you need to make a start.
You DON`T need a comprehensive manual to trade this system.

There are a few that are keen to trade this system and are doing quite well.

As long as there is enough interest to trade this system, I will hang around and assist but it is your choice and your money in the end.

I have posted a lot of trades across various pairs, exactly the same trade setups that you have on your charts. Most of the trades were profitable, you could have made the same trades, with the same outcome?

OK, I will get of the soapbox now.
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #2,028
  • Sep 3, 2009 3:03pm Sep 3, 2009 3:03pm
OK cleaned up all the non trading stuff.

Tomorrow may be a typical messy NFP day or it may not be.
I look at entries during early LDN session only and often I stand aside and skip trades for the whole day.
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #2,029
  • Sep 3, 2009 3:21pm Sep 3, 2009 3:21pm
Some good answers to the "how do we count pips" question. My own preference is to deal with matters relating to account size in $'s and percentages. Risk per trade is a percentage of account size. Matters of movement on the chart I always scale back down to compare to the number of pips risked (which I call 1R).

If I risk 22 pips, say as a SL, and scale half at 10 and half at +1, then I consider the risk at 22 pips, and the reward as (10+1)/2 = 5.5. So risk/reward is 5.5/22 = 0.25R.

Would I be right in saying that the majority of trades here by the majority of traders do not reach as high as 1R? And that trades greater than 1R are in the minority? Even Glen's scaling out on GU, from memory, 25, 35 and 50 with a stop of say 40 pips, if TP's are split into equal sizes equates to (25+35+50)/3= 36.6 pips, which is 0.91R for capturing most of an average trend move.
  • #2,030
  • Sep 3, 2009 3:42pm Sep 3, 2009 3:42pm
Quoting Royston
Some good answers to the "how do we count pips" question....
I do not want to sound demagogical, I just describe how I explain it to myself when I am trading. If I set SL at 50 pips and TP at 30 pips then mathematically it is 30:60 or 0.6R as you name it. In reality I do not feel this way because I never use a system that has more than 50 % losing probability. (Even entering trades absolutely randomly should give around 50 % of wins during longer period. ) So, in my unconscious the RRR of the same trade would be around 3R probably and when I lose one trade then with next few ones I feel like there is almost no risk at all.
This may sound like a BS and like a very dangerous attitude but I think it has some point, too. After all, the only thing that matters is if you believe in your system and yourself or you do not. If not - do not trade
  • #2,031
  • Sep 3, 2009 3:44pm Sep 3, 2009 3:44pm
Quoting Royston
Some good answers to the "how do we count pips" question....

Roy,

That is correct as far as 60 15 5 is concerned. The RR is .91 on an average trade. It does not really bother me too much because the hitrate is quite high and the average loss is actually around 33 pips because some trades are stopped out on an opposite signal before the SL is hit. (GU applies)
The risk on the trade being a total loss is valid if the trade does not reach +25 and the SL is hit for 40 pips before a new signal is generated.

RR is certainly important and from " mental health" point of view, few traders would take on a 40% hitrate system with a 4:1 RR. Very profitable on paper but in real life, a challenge to trade.
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #2,032
  • Sep 3, 2009 3:45pm Sep 3, 2009 3:45pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Glen, could you, please, post your template? I like your results..
Want to try it as well.. Thank you. If it's Renko, it's ok,
cause I have that script..
Why would you want his template (which he won't give you) if you are constantly posting charts with fake trades that you claim returned 18% of your total account balance?

What on earth are you doing in a MTF thread if you can make that kind of money that "easily"

Please don't ask for Glens Template...just take 15 min and read through the first couple pages and then click on the little paperclip in the corner...you'll find everything you need there.
  • #2,033
  • Sep 3, 2009 4:14pm Sep 3, 2009 4:14pm
I trade 5 different systems including 2 different MTF systems.

Only 1 system has a RR bigger than 1:1.
I am satisfied that the % hitrate that I can average over any block of 20 trades will more than adequately compensate for the RR.
It will give me a positive expectancy and consistency and that is what I am looking at.
If you trade for 5 pips TP with 20-30 pips SL, you better be VERY GOOD and consistent. I will most certainly not trade for a living or try to trade for a living with a system like this. I do scalp as well as most traders know but it is for " beer money " only.

I have had 8 negative days out of 115 trading days trading GBPUSD(60 15 5), the biggest was -50 pips and the smallest was -10 pips. Some of the negative GBPUSD days were compensated for by positive pips from other pairs.

Sure, you have to keep track of RR but it should always be part of a total picture. There are a number of very profitable trading systems with a negative RR and a high hitrate and some with a lousy hitrate but very good RR.
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #2,034
  • Edited 7:05pm Sep 3, 2009 6:35pm | Edited 7:05pm
Quoting pilotui
if you are constantly posting charts with fake trades that you claim returned 18% of your total account balance?
Dude, I trade that way probably 3-4 month now.. 2 month on Test
and now on live account.. There is nothing genius about, just sell
freaking Dollar, on every pop, that's all you have to do.. Chinese
Buying GOLD and SILVER.. There is some stories developing
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssF...47327420090831

With 9 trillion defect 0% interest rate And 24/7 printing press running,
Dollar have no biz to trade anywhere
higher than 1.50/EURO. IMHO

Look at the chart, how many times Dollar rise for 1-2 days only, to just
fall like a rock the day after.. That will continue, unless anything fundamentally changed... See Dollar at 1.42/EURO? SELL, goes higher?
SELL MORE.. What are you afraid off?
It's only going to be weaker and weaker of course unless we again see
Market crash like we did in 2008.
I'm not selling EURO though, cause it's possible that one day it will leave $1.44
area to move higher.. Only Selling Dollar.. Simple enough?

P.S But there is also secret in Lot sizes.. Start from smaller EU buy then as Dollar moves higher add higher lots

like for example buy 1 lot then 1.20 then 1.40 and so on, So? When it reverses biggest Orders are now on the bottom

and will make you big $.. So Practically I have enough money to go all the way down to $1.30 or so, if needed..

I always can add cash as well.. This will never fail unless you believe Dollar would be the king like in 1970..
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #2,035
  • Sep 3, 2009 11:26pm Sep 3, 2009 11:26pm
Hi Glen,

i was looking at your results from trading cable and they are very good. I would like to know what is the exact method that you used to get those results (have you perhaps described it in some earlier post of yours), did you take every signal, etc. Could you kindly clarify this issue a little...

Thanks.

Quoting Gleneagles
Angus,

Hopefully I am not confusing you?

I don`t trade each and every signal I see.
I look at the trend, average range for the day etc before I pull the trigger.
  • #2,036
  • Sep 3, 2009 11:48pm Sep 3, 2009 11:48pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Dude, I trade that way probably 3-4 month now.. 2 month on Test
and now on live account.. There is nothing genius about, just sell
freaking Dollar, on every pop, that's all you have to do.. Chinese
Buying GOLD and SILVER.. There is some stories developing
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssF...47327420090831

With 9 trillion defect 0% interest rate And 24/7 printing press running,
Dollar have no biz to trade anywhere
higher than 1.50/EURO. IMHO

Look at the chart, how many times Dollar rise for...
Sorry but... can you explain why are you posting these ideas in this thread?
I am a very open minded person but I still find that everything that is being posted here should at least somehow be linked to MTF Trix system. Thanks.
  • #2,037
  • Sep 3, 2009 11:49pm Sep 3, 2009 11:49pm
Long GBPUSD 30 5

Entry 1.6322
Stop 1.6298
TP#1 1.6336
TP#2 1.6357

Risk 2%
Profit 0.8%

Trailed my stop too close on the second part of my position and barely got stopped.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,038
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:30am Sep 4, 2009 1:30am
First trade today. Loss.
Bought when 1.6350 broken, bought at the top.
Stopped under daily pivot, seemed to be at the bottom.
Attached Image
  • #2,039
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:46am Sep 4, 2009 1:46am
H1 is long.....

Look for M15 long and then enter when M5 gives a long signal.

Also H4 is long....



I am lookin for a long signal which is happening as I write.

Hope this helps.
  • #2,040
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:55am Sep 4, 2009 1:55am
NFP is not the best day to trade.

I took a small position @ 16348 long.

It is struggling to make progress.

Will leave it for a while and shut it down if it fails to make new high.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
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