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Female Forex Traders Network II

  • #121
  • Sep 3, 2009 10:12pm Sep 3, 2009 10:12pm
Quoting Patience
You know, I was just looking at my USDX 4 Hour chart thinking exactly the same thing. I just don't know which way it is going to break and it's annoying the $hit out of me. I've got this horrible feeling it might be in favour of the US$ but the last time I relied on my female intuition was when I said to another poster that I thought another poster was a chick and he is most definitely male Oh, yeah, and let us not forget that TudorGirl fooled me as well (the laugh is on me)
Was watching the analysis of some of the trades on the EU thread, and reading through people begging to be told which way it the market was going to move, and thought, "They need a Magic 8 Ball...."
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  • #122
  • Sep 3, 2009 10:19pm Sep 3, 2009 10:19pm
Quoting fxgrnwise
Well... I have been reading around different break out strategies and I guess Frankenpips is gone with his two trading strategies along with Edgetrader. I guess the fakes are being weeded out..

I guess our very own contributor CobraForex is a garden weeder...

Been studying the Aud/Usd and correlating pairs, also watching USD/CAD, I am enjoying them trying to hone my scalp strategy.
I haven't traded USD/CAD, but have been really enjoying putting a toe in the water with Aud/USD. Nice to have some activity at night, when the EU chart just looks like smoke drifting sideways....
  • #123
  • Sep 3, 2009 10:20pm Sep 3, 2009 10:20pm
Quoting babyleaps
Was watching the analysis of some of the trades on the EU thread, and reading through people begging to be told which way it the market was going to move, and thought, "They need a Magic 8 Ball...."
Ha, ha - yeah, when they have finished with it, can you ask them nicely to pass it to me.

I'm just not sure. Pin bar on EUR daily but it's not a great pin bar because it's in congestion. PA has hit my 200 SMA on 4 hour. I'm thinking up but am wondering if it is just my bias talking again.

USD/CAD can be a right you know what (look at all these invisible people - ha, ha)
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #124
  • Sep 3, 2009 10:22pm Sep 3, 2009 10:22pm
Quoting Patience
Ha, ha - yeah, when they have finished with it, can you ask them nicely to pass it to me.

I'm just not sure. Pin bar on EUR daily but it's not a great pin bar because it's in congestion. PA has hit my 200 SMA on 4 hour. I'm thinking up but am wondering if it is just my bias talking again.

USD/CAD can be a right you know what.
Okay, I'm going to display my own ignorance--what do you mean when you say 'it is in congestion'--no clear signal?
  • #125
  • Sep 3, 2009 10:23pm Sep 3, 2009 10:23pm
Quoting babyleaps
Okay, I'm going to display my own ignorance--what do you mean when you say 'it is in congestion'--no clear signal?
It should have clear space around it - not stuck in a whole lotta PA. The 4 hour pin earlier is a better example of a "good" pin - look at that pin and then look at the daily one and you will see what I mean.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #126
  • Sep 3, 2009 10:26pm Sep 3, 2009 10:26pm
Quoting Patience

USD/CAD can be a right you know what (look at all these invisible people - ha, ha)
I have to admit that I wander around in invisible mode, too. Nice to see how many people are on a particular thread, though...
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  • #127
  • Sep 3, 2009 10:36pm Sep 3, 2009 10:36pm
Here are some pinocchio (pin) bars - compliments of James16. God, hope he doesn't mind. For those of you that haven't discovered this fantastic thread please click here James 16 Chart Thread

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #128
  • Sep 3, 2009 11:00pm Sep 3, 2009 11:00pm
Quoting Patience
Here are some pinocchio (pin) bars - compliments of James16. God, hope he doesn't mind. For those of you that haven't discovered this fantastic thread please click here James 16 Chart Thread
Deep sigh. I've heard wonderful things about the james16 thread, but have to admit that the size of it is daunting enough that I haven't taken the time to wade through it. Sounds like I need to make it more of a priority....

Thanks, Patience. Going to take me a bit to absorb....
  • #129
  • Sep 3, 2009 11:07pm Sep 3, 2009 11:07pm
Quoting babyleaps
Deep sigh. I've heard wonderful things about the james16 thread, but have to admit that the size of it is daunting enough that I haven't taken the time to wade through it. Sounds like I need to make it more of a priority....
It's well worth a read - just do like 5 pages a day or something.

Here's another thread that's worth a read if you haven't already stumbled across it - No Brainer Trades Thread. Haven't popped in there for a while though.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #130
  • Sep 3, 2009 11:16pm Sep 3, 2009 11:16pm
Quoting babyleaps
Deep sigh. I've heard wonderful things about the james16 thread, but have to admit that the size of it is daunting enough that I haven't taken the time to wade through it. Sounds like I need to make it more of a priority....

Thanks, Patience. Going to take me a bit to absorb....
Just skim it at first & then decide for yourself if you want to continue digging into it.
I think you'll find it to contain the simplest view of how to Understand a Market without the rainbow of Inds.

Not suggesting that you switch to the J16 Method but I will say, it will probably Add to yours. Whatever that may be.
  • #131
  • Sep 4, 2009 12:38am Sep 4, 2009 12:38am
Quoting Bemac
Just skim it at first...
T... this may help for starters...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23250
FUBAR...
  • #132
  • Sep 4, 2009 4:08am Sep 4, 2009 4:08am
Currency Market and Risk Appetite will Rediscover Volatility and Direction Soon
Friday, 04 September 2009 01:59:57 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

Risk appetite has diminished for months; yet the positive bias behind the capital markets has not faltered whilst traders sought out the fundamental fuel for the next trend. However, we may see a resolution on both the direction and intensity of sentiment soon as the technical and fundamental pressures build to a breaking point behind the scenes. Whether in the FX, stock, fixed income or any other speculative market; liquidity is acting as a dampener for price action. The height of the summer holiday season has drained the markets and the extended US holiday this coming week will certainly exacerbate the situation. Under such unusual circumstances, volatility can be artificially inflated; but news and meaningful trends are very difficult to establish. As the trading ranks begins to fill out once again next week, the technical congestion that has developed around the most liquid currency pairs will lead to breakouts. What’s more, with both the dollar-based Majors and the Japanese yen crosses in the same position; a break will likely be echoed across the market and further fuel an shift in sentiment itself. EURUSD would be an appropriate gauge for any new trends that develop. The most actively traded currency pair is not highly sensitive to risk appetite; but that works in our favor as it will follow a trend rather than mere volatility. For motivation, three months of congestion has turned into a terminal congestion pattern and the average true range (with a 10-day average) has fallen to its lowest level since February of 2008. A break is inevitable; but the next trend will likely rely on fundamentals.

To read further: Article


Bank of Scotland's Daily Market Strategy
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf BOSMarketStrategyDaily4Sep-2009.pdf   111 KB | 330 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #133
  • Sep 4, 2009 5:06am Sep 4, 2009 5:06am
Marvelous. These beauties appear to be variations of false breakouts. Thanks for the link, indeed the j16 thread is so long I could be reading it for the next 40 years.

Quoting Patience
Here are some pinocchio (pin) bars - compliments of James16. God, hope he doesn't mind. For those of you that haven't discovered this fantastic thread please click here James 16 Chart Thread
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #134
  • Edited 5:40am Sep 4, 2009 5:29am | Edited 5:40am
Quoting spekitox
Marvelous. These beauties appear to be variations of false breakouts. Thanks for the link, indeed the j16 thread is so long I could be reading it for the next 40 years.
Wassup? Where you been hiding lately? Hope your trading is going well.


The SSI is a powerful tool unique to FXCM. It shows you FXCM's trading book: what our clients are trading. At a glance, you can see where traders are in the market. Are there large numbers of buyers or sellers? Are they exiting or entering? FXCM's SSI is updated twice every day, and the information is current - unlike the COT report.

SSI: GBPUSD Ratio Flips, Retail Traders Turn Bullish Following Three-Day Rally
Friday, 04 September 2009 09:42:57 GMT
Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:


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Intraday Highlight:

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.13 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.01 as 50% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 8.6% higher than yesterday and 2.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.1% lower than yesterday and 54.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.7% stronger than yesterday and 9.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.


Ewww, who wants to buy the GBP? They need their head checked. One of the most reviled currencies on this earth (along with the US$). Bit of a shame that I live in Great Britain (my personal worth deteriorates day by day) Soon I'll be worth nothing just like our American friends

Actually, second thoughts, yeah, buy it, buy it so I can get the hell out of it - ha, ha!
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #135
  • Sep 4, 2009 5:58am Sep 4, 2009 5:58am
Quoting Patience
Wassup? Where you been hiding lately? Hope your trading is going well.
yupp, been a busy boy lately. All going well, putting some pips in the sack, also paying some for tuition fees, but that's the way the cookie crumbles isn't it.

erhm, are you eating what you like and when you like it? hope so.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #136
  • Sep 4, 2009 6:12am Sep 4, 2009 6:12am
Quoting spekitox
erhm, are you eating what you like and when you like it? hope so.
Yes, thank goodness, got that goddamn thing ripped out of me last week. I can actually eat without pain - it's quite weird. Thanks for asking As long as there are pips in the sack, everything is good.

European Morning Wrap Up; risk appetite in ok shape

 

  1. China will use yuan, not dollars, to buy up to $50 billion in IMF-issued bonds. Expectation had been they would use dollars
  2. French budget deficit -109.02 bln euros Jan-July vs -51.39 bln in same period 2008
  3. ECB’s Trichet: ECB framework allows rate changes while keeping non-standard measures in place if needed. Bank has exit plan, but not time yet
  4. Swiss August CPI +0.1% m/m, -0.8% y/y, slightly stronger than median forecasts of flat, -0.9% respectively
  5. Markit German construction index 43.6 in August, down from 43.7 in July. 18th consecutive month of contraction
  6. UK new car registrations +6.0% y/y in August, helped by scrappage scheme – SMMT
  7. China shouldn’t tighten policy too early – Chief Economist at State Information Centre
  8. Must dampen “speculative exuberance” – ECB’s Weber
  9. Unwinding stimulus too soon could derail economy, with risks for growth, uneployment -IMF’s Strauss Kahn
  10. Decision not to add premium on 12-month tender was monetary policy decision – ECB’s Stark

Slow session, which was to be expected ahead of US non-farm payrolls. Risk appetite in ok shape. European stocks have posted semi-decent gains.

Roll on non-farm payrolls. Session best forgotten.

http://www.forexlive.com/48559/all/e...te-in-ok-shape

Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #137
  • Sep 4, 2009 6:42am Sep 4, 2009 6:42am
Well, less than one hour before non-farm payrolls and I'm none the wiser. I took a long early this morning to the Daily Pivot at 1.4275 so I'm out of that now.

78.30 is now acting as support at the moment (previously resistance on many occasions). It's like a magnet that number. Could go either way.

Wait at least 10-15 minutes after the announcement to let the market show you the way. Better than getting whiplashed/whipsawed (whatever word you prefer to use). EUR/USD has only done approx. 50 odd pips so far today so it's gonna move one way or the other.

Where's that Magic 8 Ball?

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #138
  • Sep 4, 2009 8:12am Sep 4, 2009 8:12am
Quoting ak4x
T... this may help for starters...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23250
THANK YOU

(off to get coffee before I go crazy and put in an order.....must....wake....up..........)
  • #139
  • Edited 9:08am Sep 4, 2009 8:39am | Edited 9:08am
Nice bullish outside bar on 1 hour chart and also on 4 hour chart and RSI has turned up. USDX currently at 78.58. I've got another resistance at 78.80 as you can see on the chart. After that it is 79.40.

Took the ride down on AUD to 84.00 and am looking to maybe short again. Let's see what the US$ has got.

Hope everyone is intact. Bit of a messy one.

[EDIT] Holy $hit that AUD is powering up like a bat out of hell. Gone short at 84.25 but going to leave a few soldiers available to rescue him if I have to. Faked me out!

Babyleaps, get that coffee into ya girl and get trading.

[EDIT] Oh, that useless US$. Looks like I'll be having to rescue my soldier once this calms down. USDX back to 78.54 at the moment. What a plonker of a currency!

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #140
  • Sep 4, 2009 9:19am Sep 4, 2009 9:19am
Patience,

The AUD/USD is back up to the 78.0% fib where it normally turns down, I would not touch it with a 10 ft. pole right now....
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