DislikedHey guys, I look forward to this Sunday and taking my trades based on this strategy. The fact that Monday is a US holiday should not affect trade placement right?Ignored
- #3,243
- Sep 4, 2009 12:28am Sep 4, 2009 12:28am
I have been a silent spectator who started trading this method on 8/14/09, during the dark days (no relationship to DarkDays,) so I am in the red at this time. However I am a believer and will stick it out for the long run mainly because this thread gives me so much joy to read. Every time I open this thread I can't wait to see the latest posts by Yen and Shiko. I have been slowly laughing myself, of course with proper money management, to the poor house. 
My accountant is a little concerned but my shrink says I have a healthy attitude about the whole thing.
My accountant is a little concerned but my shrink says I have a healthy attitude about the whole thing.
- #3,244
- Sep 4, 2009 12:31am Sep 4, 2009 12:31am
- | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: AKA "Yen" | 1,654 Posts
I have been a silent spectator who started trading this method on 8/14/09, during the dark days so I am in the red at this time. However I am a believer and will stick it out for the long run mainly because this thread gives me so much joy to read. Every time I open this thread I can't wait to see the latest post by Yen and Shiko. I have been slowly laughing myself, of course with proper money management, to the poor house.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
I have been a silent spectator who started trading this method on 8/14/09, during the dark days so I am in the red at this time. However I am a believer and will stick it out for the long run mainly because this thread gives me so much joy to read. Every time I open this thread I can't wait to see the latest posts by Yen and Shiko. I have been slowly laughing myself, of course with proper money management, to the poor house.
Yen and Shiko definitely keep the thread entertaining, there's no question about that.
- #3,247
- Sep 4, 2009 12:40am Sep 4, 2009 12:40am
- | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: AKA "Yen" | 1,654 Posts
OK, my serious side just for a minute, because that's about as long as I can handle it.
Here's one more post on why I'm abandoning the BE rule, at least temporarily.
First off, the BE or BE +20 rules makes sense if you're using 100% of the Box as your SL. It prevents a trade that went to at least TP1 from turning into a full-blown SL if price retraces dramatically.
However, if you're using a reduced SL, the dynamics change completely. For instance, as mentioned before, I'll be trying out a SL set to 30% of the box. I trade 2 lots. The first lot has TP1 as a target. If and when that is reached, I have now locked in profit for the week. With the reduced SL, my R:R even at TP1 should be in the 3:1 range most weeks. So, even if the trade falls apart and my second lot goes to SL, I'll still profitable for the week.
How about the second lot when the first lot is closed? Instead of moving the SL to BE when TP1 is reached, I will not change the SL. As mentioned before, even if the trade turns around, profit is already locked in. More importantly, it gives the trade more breathing room.
Here's a chart example of what I see as advantages in not moving the trade to BE if you're using a reduced SL. This trade occurred on the week of May 11 of this year. Here's the way it played out:
1. A short trade was initiated at 1.4939. The box size was 127 pips. My SL would have been 38 pips, based on 30% of the box size.
2. Price fairly quickly went to TP1. Under current rules, most would now move their trade to BE, assuring no loss on the trade. I would now have closed 1 lot at 127 pips profit.
3. TP2 was reached a short time later, but price begins to channel and then retrace.
4. Price retraces all the way to 1.4946. Anyone who moved their trade to BE is now out of the trade with nothing to show for it.
5. Now, price begins to dip again, going to TP3 and then . . .
6. The trade soon reaches TP4 for a grand total of 518 pips . . . if you're still in the trade.
Does a winning trade retrace this dramatically very often? I doubt it, because I had to search for examples from this year. But, the fact that I found two in short order that were worth hundreds of pips in profit was enough to convince me to at least give a reduced SL a try. I'll let you all know how it goes.
Here's one more post on why I'm abandoning the BE rule, at least temporarily.First off, the BE or BE +20 rules makes sense if you're using 100% of the Box as your SL. It prevents a trade that went to at least TP1 from turning into a full-blown SL if price retraces dramatically.
However, if you're using a reduced SL, the dynamics change completely. For instance, as mentioned before, I'll be trying out a SL set to 30% of the box. I trade 2 lots. The first lot has TP1 as a target. If and when that is reached, I have now locked in profit for the week. With the reduced SL, my R:R even at TP1 should be in the 3:1 range most weeks. So, even if the trade falls apart and my second lot goes to SL, I'll still profitable for the week.
How about the second lot when the first lot is closed? Instead of moving the SL to BE when TP1 is reached, I will not change the SL. As mentioned before, even if the trade turns around, profit is already locked in. More importantly, it gives the trade more breathing room.
Here's a chart example of what I see as advantages in not moving the trade to BE if you're using a reduced SL. This trade occurred on the week of May 11 of this year. Here's the way it played out:
1. A short trade was initiated at 1.4939. The box size was 127 pips. My SL would have been 38 pips, based on 30% of the box size.
2. Price fairly quickly went to TP1. Under current rules, most would now move their trade to BE, assuring no loss on the trade. I would now have closed 1 lot at 127 pips profit.
3. TP2 was reached a short time later, but price begins to channel and then retrace.
4. Price retraces all the way to 1.4946. Anyone who moved their trade to BE is now out of the trade with nothing to show for it.
5. Now, price begins to dip again, going to TP3 and then . . .
6. The trade soon reaches TP4 for a grand total of 518 pips . . . if you're still in the trade.
Does a winning trade retrace this dramatically very often? I doubt it, because I had to search for examples from this year. But, the fact that I found two in short order that were worth hundreds of pips in profit was enough to convince me to at least give a reduced SL a try. I'll let you all know how it goes.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
- #3,248
- Sep 4, 2009 12:49am Sep 4, 2009 12:49am
- | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: AKA "Yen" | 1,654 Posts
I have been a silent spectator who started trading this method on 8/14/09, during the dark days (no relationship to DarkDays,) so I am in the red at this time....
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
- #3,250
- Sep 4, 2009 6:45am Sep 4, 2009 6:45am
- | Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,444 Posts
[quote=yen44x;3022781]BTW, Penfield, I looked at your profile a while back . . . as soon as I saw Alfred E. Neuman, I knew we'd get along just fine.[/quo
Yeah, and I also like his face features!
Welcome to the family Pen
Ok, I gotta clear my mind. Think vacation, think vacation. Plane time Saturday 18:20 EST. Taxi booked for 2:00 EST
A little bit serious stuff.
This discussion about reducing is important IMHO. This strategy is mechanical and signals must be obeyed but we already know from Danno96's testing that there are roygh times and it is good to have such a trade management as to reduce our losses. Position sizing and in trade management is much more important than signals. Damn, we will develop this strategy into a complete strategy one of the kind Turtles traded
[/quoYeah, and I also like his face features!
Welcome to the family Pen
Ok, I gotta clear my mind. Think vacation, think vacation. Plane time Saturday 18:20 EST. Taxi booked for 2:00 EST
A little bit serious stuff.
This discussion about reducing is important IMHO. This strategy is mechanical and signals must be obeyed but we already know from Danno96's testing that there are roygh times and it is good to have such a trade management as to reduce our losses. Position sizing and in trade management is much more important than signals. Damn, we will develop this strategy into a complete strategy one of the kind Turtles traded
- #3,251
- Sep 4, 2009 6:45am Sep 4, 2009 6:45am
- | Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,444 Posts
BTW, Penfield, I looked at your profile a while back . . . as soon as I saw Alfred E. Neuman, I knew we'd get along just fine.
Yeah, and I also like his face features!
Welcome to the family Pen
Ok, I gotta clear my mind. Think vacation, think vacation. Plane time Saturday 18:20 EST. Taxi booked for 2:00 EST
A little bit serious stuff.
This discussion about reducing is important IMHO. This strategy is mechanical and signals must be obeyed but we already know from Danno96's testing that there are roygh times and it is good to have such a trade management as to reduce our losses. Position sizing and in trade management is much more important than signals. Damn, we will develop this strategy into a complete strategy one of the kind Turtles traded
Its funny how you skip the second week on your chart
Without the second week, you'd be in the drain. But I welcome you to backtest all weeks, not just the ones that would have worked with the moving average.
but i skip the 2nd week " on purpose " because this week = No entry which = No Buy - No sell
i'll back test this idea for about 100 weeks
and i'll post now the 1st 20 weeks ..
Notes :1- No entry we set the stop order but didn't activate
2-Stop loss = the take profit of the other side
3- No take profit No stop loss = the stop order activated but the price didn't hit neither TP nor SL
Let's start
Week 1 : TP3
Week 2 : TP1
Week 3 : No entry
Week 4 : TP3
Week 5 : TP1
Week 6 : TP1
Week 7 : TP1
Week 8 : No Entry
Week 9 : TP2
Week 10 : No Entry
Week 11 : No Entry
Week 12 : TP4
Week 13 : TP4
Week 14 : TP3
Week 15 : No entry
Week 16 TP2
Week 17 : No Entry
Week 18 : TP2
Week 19 : SL
Week 20 : TP5
- #3,253
- Sep 4, 2009 7:43am Sep 4, 2009 7:43am
- | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: AKA "Yen" | 1,654 Posts
Yeah, and I also like his face features!
Welcome to the family Pen
Ok, I gotta clear my mind. Think vacation, think vacation. Plane time Saturday...
Yeah, and I also like his face features!
Welcome to the family Pen
Ok, I gotta clear my mind. Think vacation, think vacation. Plane time Saturday...
I was determined not to tease you, shiko, on your first day of vacation.
So, let me say this is a good post.
But, it's not so good that you need to post it twice.
Ah sorry, shiko, there goes my resolution to not tease you today.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
- #3,254
- Sep 4, 2009 7:51am Sep 4, 2009 7:51am
- | Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,444 Posts
But, it's not so good that you need to post it twice.
It was not me, man. It was tequila
- #3,255
- Sep 4, 2009 8:03am Sep 4, 2009 8:03am
- | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: AKA "Yen" | 1,654 Posts
It was not me, man. It was tequila
Here in Mexico, tequila is an acceptable excuse.
Have a good vacation. Every time you get the urge to send a post, go ahead and . . . kiss your wife or hug your mom or try to figure out what happened to that tool you lost.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
- #3,256
- Sep 4, 2009 8:06am Sep 4, 2009 8:06am
- | Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,444 Posts
Now I understand, my friend.
Have a good vacation. Every time you get the urge to send a post, go ahead and . . . kiss your wife or hug your mom or try to figure out what happened to that tool you lost.
1% man, remember only 1%!!!
Ok, gotta go
- #3,257
- Sep 4, 2009 8:25am Sep 4, 2009 8:25am
- | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: AKA "Yen" | 1,654 Posts
Ok, gotta go
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
- #3,259
- Sep 4, 2009 9:57am Sep 4, 2009 9:57am
- | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: AKA "Yen" | 1,654 Posts
I think he will be a little early for his plane....today is Friday!!
There's a method to his madness . . . this way he can yak it up at the airport for 24 hours before leaving.
Just imagine the excitement of his fellow passengers as shiko gives them the latest on the 4H Box system . . .
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
- #3,260
- Edited 10:09am Sep 4, 2009 10:00am | Edited 10:09am
OK, my serious side just for a minute, because that's about as long as I can handle it.
First off, the BE or BE +20 rules makes sense if you're using 100% of the Box as your SL. It prevents a trade that went to at least TP1 from turning into a full-blown SL if price retraces dramatically.
However, if you're using a reduced SL, the dynamics change completely. For instance, as mentioned before, I'll be trying out a SL set to 30% of the box. I trade 2 lots. The...
Yen,
What I wonder is how often the reduced SL would have been hit in the last year. 30% of a 150 pip box is small enough but we also get boxes in the 100 pip range. I do think the reduced SL makes sense. I haven't figured out the right % to use or if there are signals that indicate it's better to use the reduced SL for a particular trade (like box size).
My strategy is to place pending orders that can be closed evenly by 1/2 e.g. .6 lots. When I reach 100 pips I close 1/2 of the position locking in profit. Then I set SL to BE+ 20 on the remainder. If TP1 is hit then I'll adjust the SL to BE +20 at that level.
If I'm stopped out then I go back to one of Droland's suggestions. I place a pending order 25 pips above or below where I was stopped out but going in the same direction as the original trade. So if it's a short term retrace and the price turns and goes back to follow the original trend then I'm still o.k.
After looking at the data I think taking profit on part of the trade at 100 pips improves overall success rate with this system.
Sandy
P.S. Where I have 100 pips I used to have TP1. But in going back and looking at the data I'm going to try a revision of locking in profits at 100 pips.