sounds to me like you did the same thing I've done for several years. You've unwittingly curve fit your system to match the historical data in the charts. With modern computers and programing it is easy to do and we can justify it by saying we are "optimizing' the settings. What happens is that the system works on the history but not the present.
You method of entering and exiting must be based on some fundamental "truth" in the market. Just saying this combination if indicators shows a "high probability" of success...doesn't cut it as you've already observed, markets change.
However, markets change for a reason...try to determine what that reason is and then how to "read" change as it is occurring and then adjust your trading to match.
Rule #1: Change does not occur overnight...therefore you will NOT see it on the one minute or tick charts.
Rule #2: Change has some fundamental cause at its core...therefore a thorough study of ecconomics of the countries on BOTH sides of the pair your are trading is essential...GBP/USD = eccon. study of England & the US.
Rule #3: Stability or instability in the day to day spot market is caused mostly by traders like you and me trying to "guess" what is going to happen next. Look at the bigger picture and forget what it happing day to day...
Good forcasting comes from balance...balance means using BOTH fundamental and technical analysis. Even if you aren't ALWAYS correct, you are in the ball park and that is all we need to suck 200 pips out of the market each week.
You are applying "logic" where there is none. Math and indicators cannot and will not ever predict human behavior. Trading the markets is literally trading on ups and downs of human psychology as shown in price action.
To say that any "logic" and serve as a predictor of human behavior by way of price action is quite frankly arrogant. The only trading "system" that will last a century is YOUR ability to interpret the market. You cannot program that into a simple system of 1's & 0's.
Learn to read the market in the context of financial and geo-political events. Understand that the nature of most financial institutions is to act in their own (selfish and/or greedy) best interests. Use that knowledge to your advantage...telling yourself (and us) that some "magic" computer or math logic can explain it is a fool's errand. Truly!
You are asking for the advise of those with experience of > 5 years...here it is staring you in the face and you're NOT listening.
Joined Mar 2008
|
Status: Still testing and trading
|1,454 Posts
It's exactly as gspajon said, you have unknowingly curvefitted your results to certain period. It's very easy to do without noticing.
Here is a small hint: The simpler the system is, the harder it is to curve fit. Therefore if you find a simple system that gives promising results, it will most likely work longer term than a system with many variables that you tweak.
