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  • #341
  • Sep 3, 2009 7:57am Sep 3, 2009 7:57am
Quoting Scotty B
To answer pip in response to you sir. Yes, most people certainly get the shaft.

Not wanting to be mean but that's their own fault. Ok we've got two market certainties, charts go to the right every day (lol) and people get shafted, and probably a whole bunch of other certainties but none about price direction. Great

Don't get me wrong I'm not trying to rain on your parade, all this information is extremely interesting and can be very useful in trading so thanks for all your research and for sharing it, but I think you've got to be realistic in your expectations of what you're going to find, the oasis is in fact more sand.

Just imagine it for a second, 100% predictable price direction......
  • #342
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:01am Sep 3, 2009 8:01am
Quoting pipmutt
Not wanting to be mean but that's their own fault. Ok we've got two market certainties, charts go to the right (lol) and people get shafted, and probably a whole bunch of other certainties but none about price direction. Great

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to rain on your parade, all this stuff is extremely interesting and can be very useful in trading so thanks for all your research and for sharing it, but I think you've got to be realistic in your expectations of what you're going to find, the oasis is in fact more sand.

Just...
Yeah, probably...Like somebody else said, it's just supply and demand at work.
  • #343
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:19am Sep 3, 2009 8:19am
Quoting pipmutt

Just imagine it for a second, 100% predictable price direction......
Who's looking for this? lol. Good luck to them....
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #344
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:31am Sep 3, 2009 8:31am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Who's looking for this? lol. Good luck to them....

I gotta be careful how I answer, you're a sarcasm demon!

I thought Scotty was after the "price can only go one way" solution....
  • #345
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:39am Sep 3, 2009 8:39am
Quoting pipmutt
I gotta be careful how I answer, you're a sarcasm demon!

I thought Scotty was after the "price can only go one way" solution....
Im not sure exactly what scotty is looking for, but im pretty sure he doesnt think hes going to be able to predict all the market swings on the intraday level(or any other).
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #346
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:42am Sep 3, 2009 8:42am
Quoting Scotty B
Yeah, probably...Like somebody else said, it's just supply and demand at work.
There is some certainty in the markets. Price is going to consolidate, price is going to trend. Price is going to correct / retrace. You are going to reach levels where there are more buyers than sellers and vice versa.

If we can understand order flow than we can understand that at some point when when the last buyer buys and only sellers are left, we have a one way market until new buyers come in. When price starts to drop, those last buyers are in a world of hurt and will have sell pushing price down further until it the whole process reverses.

The trick is catching these points where orders run out and be on the right side of the trade. Because everyone has to exit their order at some point.

I think we can be certain of these things in the market.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #347
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:54am Sep 3, 2009 8:54am
perhaps we should start by posting our charts, similar to the ones Steve posted at the start of the thread and letting other people comment on them. If enough people are 'seeing' the same thing then we might be moving in the right direction.

Here is one I was watching.. in keeping with the thread the plan would have been to buy at trendline support with a stop and reverse where the down arrow is. I 'presume' this is where most traders going long at this point would have put their stop loss.


When I was watching this I expected the big traders to push this down just enough to get the 'new sellers in' and then push it back up but they didn't. Why not???

Comment anyone?

Cheers J
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EXAMPLE TRADE.JPG Size: 60 KB
  • #348
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:41am Sep 3, 2009 9:41am
Quoting slimcat
If enough people are 'seeing' the same thing then we might be moving in the right direction....
Unless we are in the 95% of traders who are wrong...

Anyhoo... From my observation of your chart, I would not have been looking at shorts, I would have been looking for longs in your potential target areas. My personal stop would have been somewhere beneath your potential target area. Not looking for shorts as price would have been too low there, considering where price came from and the fact that there was little to no consolidation in that area.

Your trendline/SR also confirms the direction...

If I was able to hunt for stops, I would be looking to short towards the bottom of your potential target area before resuming the major trend up.

That's my take on it...
  • #349
  • Sep 3, 2009 10:14am Sep 3, 2009 10:14am
Quoting Scotty B
... I know that the futures data is significant, because guys like AlexS use it's volume data to trade profitably...
thanks scotty for mentioning him! i checked em out because of your post.. and he's pretty much doing the exact same thing i started doing and developing.. but he's been doing it longer so im starting to read his threads to help me fully develop my strategy alot quicker. thanks again!
- nick andre -
  • #350
  • Sep 3, 2009 10:31am Sep 3, 2009 10:31am
Quoting Nick_likes_pips
thanks scotty for mentioning him! i checked em out because of your post.. and he's pretty much doing the exact same thing i started doing and developing.. but he's been doing it longer so im starting to read his threads to help me fully develop my strategy alot quicker. thanks again!
No problem nick..Good luck and trading to you.
  • #351
  • Sep 3, 2009 11:16am Sep 3, 2009 11:16am
Quoting pipmutt
You're both saying the same thing aren't you?

But how would you use that expectation/suspicion? You couldn't short because you wouldn't know whether there would be a spike down or not (stop hunt). Most long trades would probably have had a reasonably tight stop below the low which would seem like a reasonable place to most people, hence the herd-exploiting stop hunt which in that example obviously didn't happen for whatever reason (range?).

I guess the way I've been using it is to be cautious where I place stops, using a smaller trade size...
I meant that the bottom of the potential target area is where I would begin the stop hunt south (if I had the tools and capital for the job), to just under the lowest line, not start it at the top of the target area as there would be too much support I presume.

However, as I am a tiny trader, my thoughts would be to let the stop hunt occur and then once it appears to be resuming the trend (obviously still a danger area) then jump on.

Your idea about averaging in sounds good. Is that how you generally manage your trades?
  • #352
  • Sep 3, 2009 12:30pm Sep 3, 2009 12:30pm
I finally got IT!!!!!! Why did it take me THREE DAYS to understand!!! Thanks SK!!
  • #353
  • Sep 3, 2009 12:32pm Sep 3, 2009 12:32pm
Quoting Skracor247
I finally got IT!!!!!!
Wash it in saltwater, you'll be alright
  • #354
  • Sep 3, 2009 12:48pm Sep 3, 2009 12:48pm
Give this a bit of thought....... Ride the Bucking Bronko (http://www.michaelcovel.com/pdfs/swan.pdf)
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #355
  • Sep 3, 2009 3:17pm Sep 3, 2009 3:17pm
Quoting FOREXflash
A stop-loss order is just an automatic scheme to find the greater fool and a stop hunter is just a means of making a greater fool out of someone who was seeking a greater fool.
...and one stop-loss user is the greatest fool.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #356
  • Sep 3, 2009 4:38pm Sep 3, 2009 4:38pm
Quoting AstonDan
Wash it in saltwater, you'll be alright
Who would have ever thought the market was actually made up of People and not indicators!!
  • #357
  • Sep 3, 2009 4:54pm Sep 3, 2009 4:54pm
Skracor, for finding 'it'....which charts were you specifically looking at to have found it?

Cheers J
  • #358
  • Sep 3, 2009 5:07pm Sep 3, 2009 5:07pm
wow a great thread..

this thread has truly been great i still seem to have great diffulty adapting this method to trade chartless like gaston or some of the others do

ok so il list some of the few things i know:

1.these orderflow traders seem to be "snipers" - they take a handfull (<5) trades per month wich they seem to deem EXTREMELY high probability. This strongly echoes some other very respected traders in this forum ( mainly james) who say to be EXTREMELY PICKY.

2. another common thread among the PA and orderflow guys is that they know WHERE to trade. PA guys call it support and resistance and orderflow folk call it locations of high order accumulation and fear. these are both the same thing but what is important is that they are levels of historical significance that are likely to invoke a reaction(be noticed) by the big boys

3.volume and OI - i see no problem using these figures form the futures markets even though they are sample volumes and oi and not the whole picture. i mean even the presidential polls are just samples and do not poll the whole country lol.

theoreticly you could trade this information without a chart..

1. If a market is rising towards a historicly relevant resistance with decreasing volume and OI, we can say that the market is weakening and likely topping and this is a good place for a short. and vice versa

however i am murky about were i would place stops entries and Tp in such a situation which makes it a bitshaky in my mind..

the solution to this would be to use price action to confirm OI/ volume moves: ie
IF
1. price is at resistance
2.volume and OI signal a weakening / bearish market
3.u get PA
4. possibly even divergence
THEN: u have a high probabilty chance to success

however sk said in one of the first posts that SPEED is important
":"Am i good enough to adapt by increasing the SPEED at which i process orderflow?"
That's your edge once you 'understand'.It's the SPEED at which you PROCESS ORDERFLOW."

waiting for PA confirmation seems to directly contradict this speed criteria..

oi my head hurts
  • #359
  • Sep 3, 2009 7:09pm Sep 3, 2009 7:09pm
Quoting slimcat
Skracor, for finding 'it'....which charts were you specifically looking at to have found it?

Cheers J
Hey slim please see post #1. That's all it took for me, and if I can get IT so can you!

Good Luck
  • #360
  • Sep 3, 2009 7:20pm Sep 3, 2009 7:20pm
Hi Skracor, thanks for replying.

I think for this thread to move forward we need people to post charts of set ups as seen in the first post from the thread starter.
We can then make judgements on what all of us should be seeing.
The more charts we see the more we will understand from a visual point of view what we should be looking for.
I'm hoping that the more people that post their charts the more that 'IT' should become evident??

Cheers J
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