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4H Box Breakout

  • #3,201
  • Sep 2, 2009 11:12pm Sep 2, 2009 11:12pm
Quoting yen44x
Pharaoh, good going. I'm going to put it on a demo and take it for a test run next week. With smarts like that, no wonder you were King of Egypt.
Lol I'm a perfectionist, I just see some things that others don't, or can't.
  • #3,202
  • Sep 2, 2009 11:14pm Sep 2, 2009 11:14pm
Quoting Pharoah
Lol I'm a perfectionist, I just see some things that others don't, or can't.
I used to see things that others didn't or couldn't as well. Of course, I was drinking heavily at the time.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,203
  • Sep 3, 2009 12:14am Sep 3, 2009 12:14am
Quoting Pooks
if u want a real breakout.. than use real support and ressistance levels not this box.. altho the box does get lucky sometimes... most of your plays won't be real breakouts.. they will be trends.. and trends will retrace back into the box.. to set the lower high (in a downtrend) for example......
Do you know what support and resistance levels are? Essentially, they're levels that hold significance in the market. At the start of the week, the first candle determines the initial high and low for the week. The weekly open levels are definitely S/R levels.

Most of our 'plays' aren't profitable breakouts. But that doesn't matter because of the Risk:Reward ratio. Doesn't matter if you lose more times than you win because the winners clearly offset the losers and leave you in profit. Its been extensively backtested. This is a 95% mechanical system, and every trade has been noted down in excel as well as on a live basis.

The issue isn't panic because trades are taken with normal risk. So if a trade does go against us, it doesn't make too much of a difference because you only lose a small percent of your account.

I have no problem with people who are skeptical and I get the feeling that you've lost money using breakouts. At least have the proof to back up your statements. Again, this is 95% mechanical so you can easily check every trade taken. Do that for a 6 months or a year and then come back and tell me that this system plays on luck. I can understand someone saying that for a 80% mental system but not a mechanical one. I'm going to stress this point, we don't use lagging indicators, no inside bars, outside bars, pin bars or anything else. I've taken every trade by the book. Follow the rules layed out strictly and come back with some actually sense in your posts.
  • #3,204
  • Sep 3, 2009 1:28am Sep 3, 2009 1:28am
HI ace~!
Remebme me?

I found your strategy + semi-matincall

It's may be save the ranging lost money.

Sorry.My english

Your strategy is

stop loss tp1
take profit tp4

semi-matincall that theard...It's same to

But diffrents.His stop loss is 10pips take profit 40pips


It's very like your strategy

I change it to stop loss tp1 pips take profit tp4pips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 未命名.JPG Size: 109 KB



I test the stragety start 09.08.17

the week is ranging....

when 2 stop loss hit.

I add the lots

like this

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 未命名2.JPG Size: 44 KB


my take profit it's always the startup week tp4

last week

my get the order until it's go to price tp3

and the week

the price go to the tp4 in yesterday

If yesteryday i close the order

this sim account 500$ startup.It's double.

But yesterday I'm busing my work..and go to sleep..


......

but this is a strategy.

It's maybe save the ranging.


I want hear your mind

thank you your work..
  • #3,205
  • Sep 3, 2009 1:29am Sep 3, 2009 1:29am
@ ace,

I don't see any reason to respond to most of these useless posts...the system speaks for itself...despite the fact that I started following the system this week and my SL has being hit, I have backtested it and discovered that it's one of the best systems arround here. The fact is there has NEVER being and there will NEVER be a system that is 100% accurate...all best strategies must have it's own flaw(s).

If this system have been followed from Jan, 09, I'm sure one wuld have recorded above 80% success and if this is so, what else do we want?...100% perfect system?...No way!...I promise you, you won't get that anywhere.

So let's keep the ball rlling while we encourage positive posts and hope to see/read less of the negative ones.
The World As It Is Can Do With Your Positive Disposition
  • #3,206
  • Edited 2:16am Sep 3, 2009 2:04am | Edited 2:16am
Quoting nubchai
I just looked at the 2009 data from Danno and isolated whereever he identified 2 trades occurred. I focused on the second set of data where SL is moved to BE after TP1. This is a part of my strategy.
3 trade sets where the first trade was a loss
- Net pips: -254
4 trade sets where the first trade was a BE
- Net pips: +618
4 trade sets where the first trade was a Winner
- Net pips: +947
Sandy,

I took a look at every one of these trades, but came up with some vastly different results. Maybe I misinterpreted the data, so I'd appreciate your feedback because I would prefer to accept your results rather than my more dismal results on the same trades. I was 100% in favor of taking second trades, but after doing my own back test and then reviewing yours, I'm less confident than I was before. Of course, if the SL was lowered, as has been suggested by others, that could change the outlook significantly.

I noted where I see a discrepancy in our results. I've also revised the excel sheet you posted to show the changes in the results due to those discrepancies. Again, if I misunderstood the data, let me know.

“First Trade a Loser” Column
1.1/5/09—There was no Short trade to start the week that I can see. Price headed north almost immediately and never looked back, so I don't think this should trade should have been included.
Change: -260 pips
“First Trade Break Even” Column
1.1/26/09—There was no Short trade to start the week that I can see, so this result should not have been included since there were not 2 trades.
Change: -299 pips
2.4/27/09—The Long trade went to TP1 on 4/29 during the 12:00 candle, which means SL would have been moved to BE + 20. That SL was hit in the next 4-hour candle, so I think the correct result would have been +20 instead of +596 (ouch).
Change: -576 pips
“First Trade a Winner” Column
1.2/2/09—In the opening trade, I don’t think price ever made it to TP2, so the trade would have a SL of BE + 20 rather than TP1.
Change: -113 pips
2.2/16/09—You noted both trades as losers of 110 pips, which is correct, but you show the net result for the week as 0 pips. It should have been -220 pips.
Change: -220 pips
3.3/16/09—The first trade never made it past TP1, so I think the correct result would have been BE + 20 rather than +139.
Change: -119 pips

4.3/30/09—The Long trade went to TP1 on 4/1 during the 0:00 candle, which means SL would have been moved to BE + 20. That SL was hit in the next 4-hour candle, so I think the correct result would have been +20 instead of +833 (double ouch).
Change: -813 pips
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Revised Copy of 4H 2 Trades 2009.xls   29 KB | 400 downloads
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,207
  • Sep 3, 2009 3:38am Sep 3, 2009 3:38am
Quoting Pharoah
No, I believe you should make as many trades as possible to get that big movement, however, I think those trades should be managed on a much tighter level to reduce the amount of 1 trades loss. Normally when a breakout occurs, it occurs very nicely, there is no retrace really when the price actually bust's out and stays out.

I suggest personally, if your going to work with a % of breakout Zone for stoploss, make it like 15%, that way, if you loose out on 4 trades, you only lost a total of 60% of the box, and normally, it only takes 4 or 5 times...
More a less a summary of how I trade in general.
At some point, if one's analysis is correct, price will move away with it's backside on fire. Up until that happens, it's all about losing. As in as little as possible. Trading is "A loser's game..", if you take care of the losses then the winners will pretty much take care of themselves.
Just my 10p worth.
  • #3,208
  • Sep 3, 2009 7:04am Sep 3, 2009 7:04am
Quoting Pharoah
No, I believe you should make as many trades as possible to get that big movement, however, I think those trades should be managed on a much tighter level to reduce the amount of 1 trades loss. Normally when a breakout occurs, it occurs very nicely, there is no retrace really when the price actually bust's out and stays out.

I suggest personally, if your going to work with a % of breakout Zone for stoploss, make it like 15%, that way, if you loose out on 4 trades, you only lost a total of 60% of the box, and normally, it only takes 4 or 5 times...

I only have 1 suggestion, stop loss size should be such that stop loss still in the box, not outseide when buffer is broken.
  • #3,209
  • Sep 3, 2009 7:47am Sep 3, 2009 7:47am
Quoting yen44x
I had the same reaction . . . if it works out, maybe in a year or so we can claim to have thought of it. By then, there will be 10,000 posts on this thread and who's going to look back through that many posts to find out we're lying.

I checked the box for this week and if SL were set at 15% of the box, it would have been 25 pips this week. That seems REALLY tight, but even if I chose to go with 25%, I could sustain a number of false breakouts and still be profitable.

Pharaoh, good going. I'm going to put it on a demo and take...
I haven't looked at the data but it might make sense to select a % based on box size. As an example if the box is 100 pips or less set the SL at 50%. If the box is > 100 pips then use 40% or whatever you're comfortable with. 15% seems overly small but I'll look at the data over the weekend.

Sandy
  • #3,210
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:10am Sep 3, 2009 8:10am
Quoting Ace284
This is a 95% mechanical system, and every trade has been noted down in excel as well as on a live basis.
Hi Ace,

i think you should save your energy for those interested in your system.
Whoever took your method should responsible for their own action, they should know how much they can risk rather than making nonsense remarks when they lose $$$.

We are adults, we responsible for our own choices.

I support your system as I choose to do so & choose to take this commitment.
  • #3,211
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:25am Sep 3, 2009 8:25am
Quoting fxann
Hi Ace,

i think you should save your energy for those interested in your system.
Whoever took your method should responsible for their own action, they should know how much they can risk rather than making nonsense remarks when they lose $$$.

We are adults, we responsible for our own choices.

I support your system as I choose to do so & choose to take this commitment.
Top post coulnt agree more..there is about 6/8 post here besides ACE who are on the mark..the rest should pull their heads in..stop running interference on the thred.Maby a second thred for the second and third stringers..To dribble on on....or just delete their posts..
  • #3,212
  • Edited 9:13am Sep 3, 2009 8:51am | Edited 9:13am
Quoting yen44x
Sandy,

I took a look at every one of these trades, but came up with some vastly different results. Maybe I misinterpreted the data, so I'd appreciate your feedback because I would prefer to accept your results rather than my more dismal results on the same trades. I was 100% in favor of taking second trades, but after doing my own back test and then reviewing yours, I'm less confident than I was before. Of course, if the SL was lowered, as has been suggested by others, that could change the outlook significantly.

I noted where I see a discrepancy...
Yen,

Thanks for the feedback. Let me start by saying that I haven't been validating Danno's data. He took on a monumental task in compiling the trades manually so I'd expect some % of errors. But that being said here are my replies:

#1 I don't see a short either so if we pull that trade we're left with a grand total of two trades where when the first trade was a loser the second trade was a loser

#2 Agree - I don't see a short.

#3 Disagree on this one - I don't see a long being triggered until the 00 candle on 4-29 and it was a straight shot up

#4 Disagree 2-2-09 I don't know what the box size was but the short went to 125.29 on the 12:00 candle and the low of the open candle was 128.86. So that's over 300 pips.

#5 Agree - I hate simple math

#6 Disagree 3-16-09 I didn't recalc the box but the high of the 12:00 candle reached 139.98 The high of the open candle was 137.38. So with + 260 pips on the long I'm not understanding why you said we didn't hit TP1?

#7 Hard to say - It's hard for me to eyeball this without the box but Danno evidently didn't see the SL being hit on the 12:00 candle. I can't confirm either way without the box.

Sandy

P.S. Please let me know if I also misinterpreted the data in the above. After a while my eyes cross between looking at the spreadsheet and then at the charts
.
  • #3,213
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:18am Sep 3, 2009 9:18am
I also have to put down here my support of this system. It makes mathematical sense and logicial sense. If you use good money management and risk let's say 2% per trade the risk to reward ratio is incredibly positive. There's no reason to lose sleep because the 3 or 4x winners will make back any BEs or losses.

What I also like is that some pretty bright people are offering different strategies to further reduce risk and to maximize profits.

This is the only strategy I'm trading live and I sincerely thank Ace for sharing it with is.

Sandy
  • #3,214
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:21am Sep 3, 2009 9:21am
Quoting nubchai
Thanks for the feedback....
Sandy,

Thanks for the response. I agree . . . Danno is to be commended for his work, and my response was not intended to be critical of Danno or you. The issue raised was whether second trades, especially a second trade after a losing trade, are worth taking, and I think that's what we're all interested in answering.

With that said, here's my responses to your responses, if that makes sense:

#3 We agree on the starting time for this trade, but take a look at the 12:00 candle on 4/29. Price reached TP1, and we would have moved the SL to BE +20 per Danno's suggestion, which would put the new SL at around 142.55. Now, take a look at the 16:00 candle. Price dipped to a low of 142.16, which would have knocked this trade out before it really got going.

#4 The box was 188 pips that week, meaning those 300+ pips did not even reach TP2 before retracing dramatically. Thus, the result for that trade would have been BE +20 based on Danno's rules.

#6 I agree we did make it to TP1. However, Danno's suggestion is that we move the SL to BE +20, and then to TP1 if the trade makes it to TP2. That didn't happen, so the result would have been BE +20 as I understand it.

What's it all mean to me? For now, I will probably continue using second trades, but will probably keep a much tighter SL than I have in the past.

I realize it is extremely difficult to be eyeballing every candle for the last several months to determine how a trade would have been affected by adjusted rules. Probably more important in the long run is how these changes play out in real-time, because I found out that the scoundrels at FXDD won't pay me for winning trades performed in back testing.

Yen
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,215
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:22am Sep 3, 2009 9:22am
Quoting nubchai
I also have to put down here my support of this system....
Bingo!

Well said, and I couldn't agree more.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,216
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:31am Sep 3, 2009 9:31am
Quoting yen44x
Sandy,

Thanks for the response. I agree . . . Danno is to be commended for his work, and my response was not intended to be critical of Danno or you. The issue raised was whether second trades, especially a second trade after a losing trade, are worth taking, and I think that's what we're all interested in answering.

With that said, here's my responses to your responses, if that makes sense:

#3 We agree on the starting time for this trade, but take a look at the 12:00 candle on 4/29. Price reached TP1, and we would have moved the SL to BE...

Ha Ha Yen! No I took your comments in a positive way. I appreciate that you took the time to look at the data. I will agree with your corrections. I also agree on the second trade. That may change if we go back to stronger trending weeks.

Happy pips to you!

Sandy
  • #3,217
  • Sep 3, 2009 10:06am Sep 3, 2009 10:06am
Quoting danc
Top post coulnt agree more..there is about 6/8 post here besides ACE who are on the mark..the rest should pull their heads in..stop running interference on the thred.Maby a second thred for the second and third stringers..To dribble on on....or just delete their posts..

I mostly agree and I continue trading per Ace rules with Danno96 twist but only taking 1 trade if it is losing and taking second trade if first was BE.
I think that taking double hit per week is too much. If it is going on for 3-4 weeks which is not unheard off it is 8% down for me. Now , how many winning weeks will bring me back? if on the other hand I lost 4%, one good winning week will bring me to BE on my account.
Now, I risk only 1% per trade. Not much damage to the account. Now imagine you risk 3-5% per trade. and you had 8 losing trades in a row. Is it impossible?
I will also continue 50% or less of the box on another account. we cannot say anything over few weeks. It needs to be at least 6 month to say something works or not.
  • #3,218
  • Sep 3, 2009 10:12am Sep 3, 2009 10:12am
Quoting danc
Top post coulnt agree more..there is about 6/8 post here besides ACE who are on the mark..the rest should pull their heads in..stop running interference on the thred.Maby a second thred for the second and third stringers..To dribble on on....or just delete their posts..
I agree or disagree, depending on which group danc puts me in.

If I'm in the second string, I guess we could call our new thread the . . .
Attached Image
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,219
  • Sep 3, 2009 10:13am Sep 3, 2009 10:13am
Quoting jones247
The results with the semi-martingale (see post #2785 & #2790) from danno's download, as compared to Ace's method without the semi-martingale are as follows: [in pips]
2002: +1555 vs. -519
2003: +5303 vs. +3468
2005: +2685 vs. +49
2006: +2340 vs. +1496
2007: +4215 vs. +7474
2008: +7572 vs. +4135
2009: +7381 vs. +5028 (up thru 8/10/09)

I guess the results are self-evident...

Walt
i can easily see t his working because of the fact the win % is quite high and the chances of being hit with 7 weeks of losses in a row are low. Interesting idea!
  • #3,220
  • Sep 3, 2009 10:48am Sep 3, 2009 10:48am
Strategy same as Post# 1607. I plan to reduce my SL based on forward testing statistics next week. For the GBPJPY my forward testing results:

Win rate: 57.1%
Avg Trades/month: 6.1
Avg Risk: 2.5%
Account Yield (APR): 70.1%

This week's results:

GBPJPY (2 trades):

1st lot SHORT: -167 pips
2nd lot SHORT: -167 pips

1st lot LONG: -167 pips
2ndlot LONG: -167 pips


EURJPY (2 trades):

1st lot SHORT: -167 pips
2nd lot SHORT: -167 pips

1st lot LONG: -167 pips
2nd lot LONG: -167 pips


AUDJPY (1 trade):

1st lot SHORT: +108 pips
2nd lot SHORT: 0 pips


CHFJPY (1 trade):

1st lot SHORT: -115 pips
2nd lot SHORT: -115 pips
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