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4H Box Breakout

  • #3,061
  • Sep 1, 2009 3:21am Sep 1, 2009 3:21am
Hello, everyone, im new to this thread, just listening and observing atm.

there are currently 37 traders viewing this thread and 22 members.

One way of avoiding the clutter is for those members who want to share their trading in real time is to set up a skype chat room which is free and easy to regulate.

All you need is someone to look after it and that leaves this thread to focus on its educational/analytical aspects.

Ace, hope im not talking out of line here as obv its your thread but im sure you could delegate the running of this trading room if you wished to

Regards

ST
" Dont wait for your boat to come in ..... swim out and meet it"
  • #3,062
  • Sep 1, 2009 3:21am Sep 1, 2009 3:21am
On an optimistic note, GBP/JPY has been has been on a steady uptrend since January. The latest retracement (if it's over) went to just about the 76.4% fib, which is very common for Yen-based pairs. Notice the previous retracement, which ended in early July, also bottomed out at right around 76.4%.

Does that mean that this Long trade is a sure thing? Hardly. In July, price tested the 76.4 fib for about 4 days before finally moving back up. Even if we've guessed right that the long-term uptrend will reassert itself, a re-test of the fib line would trigger most of our SL's.

So, here's hoping for a decisive, steady climb up with no looking back.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp-jpy.jpg Size: 61 KB
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,063
  • Sep 1, 2009 3:22am Sep 1, 2009 3:22am
Quoting speedtrip
Hello, everyone, im new to this thread, just listening and observing atm.

there are currently 37 traders viewing this thread and 22 members.

One way of avoiding the clutter is for those members who want to share their trading in real time is to set up a skype chat room which is free and easy to regulate.

All you need is someone to look after it and that leaves this thread to focus on its educational/analytical aspects.

Ace, hope...
SpeedTrip, this is a fantastic idea, I think I will use this for my thread as long as it is permitted by the FF admin.
  • #3,064
  • Sep 1, 2009 3:24am Sep 1, 2009 3:24am
Quoting lugarejo
My short trade has also hit SL, so now I´m long in 152,44 (up of the box + spread). Now, I have set my SL at 50% of the box (151.57).

Good luck everybody with this long trade
i'm in same ship with you... first 100% SL has hit.

Next trades i will set SL at 50%, hope this is a good solution to cut the losses.
  • #3,065
  • Sep 1, 2009 3:32am Sep 1, 2009 3:32am
Wow, I'm glad I added that the Long was no sure thing. Talk about a fast exit.

See you all next week.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,066
  • Sep 1, 2009 3:32am Sep 1, 2009 3:32am
SL 50% hit...
  • #3,067
  • Sep 1, 2009 3:38am Sep 1, 2009 3:38am
Quoting Pharoah
SL 50% hit...
Yeah, 50% stop loss hit too. but I am going to keep entering with 50% again.
  • #3,068
  • Sep 1, 2009 3:41am Sep 1, 2009 3:41am
Very bad week for this system in G/J...
  • #3,069
  • Sep 1, 2009 3:46am Sep 1, 2009 3:46am
P, I already used this for my own trading with a small group i trade with (using another method)

Its pretty straightforward to set up ... just read skype notes but keep numbers to minimum and use only for live trading. Use your thread for everything else to keep focus.

Regards

ST


Quoting Pharoah
SpeedTrip, this is a fantastic idea, I think I will use this for my thread as long as it is permitted by the FF admin.
" Dont wait for your boat to come in ..... swim out and meet it"
  • #3,070
  • Sep 1, 2009 3:51am Sep 1, 2009 3:51am
I'm going to recommend that those that can place hedge orders this week (upon break and retrace) to do so, set the stoploss to 20-30 pips, and a takeprofit the same place as the stoploss on the original order.

To be honest, if a trend picks up at some point, what's loosing 20-30 pips, when considering you just saved yourself (in this case 250+ pips at 100% then 50% SL of breakout) a lot of money.

Just set a opposing pending trade at the breakeven of the already existing order. If it goes in your favor and nets you 150+ pips, you just spent 20 pips to protect your investment. However, if it does not go in your favor, you'll loose dealers spread, not a bad R:R
  • #3,071
  • Sep 1, 2009 3:58am Sep 1, 2009 3:58am
Never Never Never Ever Trading again on a UK bank holiday

Next one is Christmas

My account took a pounding this week after 2 trades took me both out.

Waiting now until Monday

Hope you guys did not get hit too bad either

Debdaz
Getting out the Rat Race
  • #3,072
  • Sep 1, 2009 4:07am Sep 1, 2009 4:07am
Quoting shiko
Bob, how are you calculating your box with Oanda? strictly speaking, the box top should be 152.50-152.52. I set it at 152.57 because of R1. set it 5 pips above R1 for the day. last time it hit and reversed and went back into profit.
shiko, I have the same entry as you @ 152.51 using a default broker spread of 10 pips (but the real spread was probably about 4 pips for the long trade when it was filled). The short trade was more like about 8 pips.

I guess the jury is still out on whether the 50% SL on the long trade was a good choice, but the 61.8% fib was also hit for a loss.

As Ace has pointed out, we will have more losing trades than winners...so we need to stay the course in order to gain those long trending profitable trades just ahead. So...we are just that much closer to a winner!

Good trading, my friend!
  • #3,073
  • Edited 4:27am Sep 1, 2009 4:11am | Edited 4:27am
Quoting Bobcat2
shiko, I have the same entry as you @ 152.51 using a default broker spread of 10 pips (but the real spread was probably about 4 pips for the long trade when it was filled). The short trade was more like about 8 pips.

I guess the jury is still out on whether the 50% SL on the long trade was a good choice, but the 61.8% fib was also hit for a loss.

As Ace has pointed out, we will have more losing trades than winners...so we need to stay the course in order to gain those long trending profitable trades just ahead. So...we are just that much...
Good point.

Yeah, my Long is still floating since i have my SL at 100%.
..but it seems this week is pretty much done for.
Lucky me.. was my first week testing this strategy live, lol.
  • #3,074
  • Sep 1, 2009 4:41am Sep 1, 2009 4:41am
The more I see it the less appealing becoming for me idea of partial profit taking in this market conditions.
The only way to take partial profits if to take partial losses. May be doing same thing, like closing 50% of position when 50% of the stop loss down.
50% stop loss still looks good for me, cause of potentially high R;R ratio.
Other 3 accounts 2 weekly trades and done. but this one I will run till Thursday taking all signals. It must break out somewhere.
  • #3,075
  • Sep 1, 2009 4:44am Sep 1, 2009 4:44am
I am out for this week.............My short was stopped out but as I mentioned before I usually don't trade when the box is around 170-200 and also when there are significant S/R points close by which we had this week.

I however went in with a very very small percentage not even 1% to just test the waters and well I was right and had very small as oppose to a larger portion have I entered fully...........I did not enter a long as it is not within my rules this week and I will wait for next week.

My rule do not enter when box is 200 and this week we had a big box and I rather sit out this one..............When you demo it does not really matter but when you are putting real money on the table it is a completely different game.
Keeping Life Simple
  • #3,076
  • Sep 1, 2009 4:45am Sep 1, 2009 4:45am
Ok, just got stopped out.
Week is over, going to practice daily S/R levels on the demo account.
  • #3,077
  • Sep 1, 2009 4:47am Sep 1, 2009 4:47am
i am not out of my long positions on 100% box stop loss.
these weeks there is no opportunity to test different take profit rules. we are not getting there to manage profits
  • #3,078
  • Sep 1, 2009 4:51am Sep 1, 2009 4:51am
Quoting time1300
I am out for this week.............My short was stopped out but as I mentioned before I usually don't trade when the box is around 170-200 and also when there are significant S/R points close by which we had this week.

I however went in with a very very small percentage not even 1% to just test the waters and well I was right and had very small as oppose to a larger portion have I entered fully...........I did not enter a long as it is not within my rules this week and I will wait for next week.

My rule do not enter when box is 200 and this week...

Yeah, I was seeing these levels too. But this is mechanical system. what if there were a break out?
and 170 is not that much for G/J. I was scared to contra trend this pair with S/R cause of its violent nature. If it breaks out we are in the money.
  • #3,079
  • Edited 8:17am Sep 1, 2009 7:11am | Edited 8:17am
152.48 was my HIGH
150.79 was my LOW
20p buffer + 12 spread = 169p box
one of polish brokers xtb
i'm playing demo now, from about $1,5k half is gone (but long is still open , 40p to SL left though) with that amount of money i would have to use micro lots i mean 0.01 or 0.05
or have some luck at first time - both targets TP1 + TP4 would have change this time $1,5k into about $2,7k (with only 0.2 lot open)
who knows maybe long position will make profits this week
im starting in september anyway
wish u luck in real money

ok, now is the end with long position also
  • #3,080
  • Sep 1, 2009 7:36am Sep 1, 2009 7:36am
For those of you who may have started this system in the last 2 or 3 weeks, it's been a rough road. This is the third consecutive week that I'm done trading on Tuesday. That's the bad news.

Here's the good news: Remarkably, despite winning only 12 of 30 trades in August, I ended the month up 8.73%. That's due to the fantastic R:R of this system.

So, if anyone's just getting started, hang in there . . . it's worth the wait. In the meantime, I'm off for 5 days again.

*In regard to the attachment, I stopped trading EUR/JPY this week, so that's why there's no record of trades for this week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4H Box Trades-09-0830.jpg Size: 55 KB
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
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