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Forex Mentors - The Best Investment You Can Make?

  • #421
  • Aug 31, 2009 9:41am Aug 31, 2009 9:41am
Quoting birdt
I'll pick one for you:

"When you trade with the trend, even if you make a mistake, the market will get you out of your problem"

This one stood out to for me as being quite dangerous advice if it wasn't put into a great deal of context....
Excellent, and what I hoped for, some other experienced traders to contribute. Like everyone else I have my opinions but it doesn't mean they're always right, if I'm wrong about something I'm quite prepared to accept I'm wrong gracefully and thank the person for pointing it out to me, that's the way people learn.

coscorp and others, play nice and we may all benefit something from this thread eventually. What say we bury the hatchet for now and all try to keep it civil and constructive without wise cracks and point scoring?
  • #422
  • Aug 31, 2009 9:43am Aug 31, 2009 9:43am
Quoting birdt
I'll pick one for you:

"When you trade with the trend, even if you make a mistake, the market will get you out of your problem"

This one stood out to for me as being quite dangerous advice if it wasn't put into a great deal of context....
Hi,

given these are personal opinions - one must recall that Jacko only trades EU which historically tends to hold a trend better with less large whipsaws (again IMHO) than for example GY (which I stay away from for the very reasons you quoted). Thus if there is a discernible major trend in play - given the sufficent time it will eventually return to your starting point. You may have been stopped out in the meantime because price went against the major trend further than your projected SL ( i concede that trend trading does have the downside of possible large drawdowns in its voyage to our projected target) If this were in fact the case I would then apply the last point to get my losses back given I was in fact tradin originally with the major trend.
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #423
  • Aug 31, 2009 9:49am Aug 31, 2009 9:49am
Quoting birdt


"When you trade with the trend, even if you make a mistake, the market will get you out of your problem"

This one stood out to for me as being quite dangerous advice if it wasn't put into a great deal of context.
I agree, and not forgetting that this advice is directed at novice traders who hate to take a loss and love to average down, especially if they're given the impression that the market will get them out of a problem. By the time the trade is a problem it's often too late.

Just because a pair always retraced, reversed, or continued in the past doesn't mean it will do it in the future.

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" - Keynes
  • #424
  • Aug 31, 2009 9:49am Aug 31, 2009 9:49am

"A consultant is someone who comes in, borrows your watch, tells you what time it is, keeps the watch, and charges you an exorbitant fee."

If you only trade long, then you can't always be wrong.
  • #425
  • Aug 31, 2009 9:54am Aug 31, 2009 9:54am
Quoting pipmutt
I agree, and not forgetting that this advice is directed at novice traders who hate to take a loss and love to average down, especially if they're given the impression that the market will get them out of a problem. By the time the trade is a problem it's often too late.

But one point that is being forgotten or perhaps wasn't known - Jacko always stresses the need for a stop loss and to be able to accept the loss if it occurs as losses and being wrong are an integral part of trading. He developed the AH strategy on purpose to try to reduce their incidence. If it can't be applied or if it fails one then must accept the loss try to learn from it and move on.

I will concede that for many it's easier said than done - but the message is clear imo.
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #426
  • Aug 31, 2009 10:00am Aug 31, 2009 10:00am
Quoting coscorp
But one point that is being forgotten or perhaps wasn't known - Jacko always stresses the need for a stop loss and to be able to accept the loss if it occurs as losses and being wrong are an integral part of trading. He developed the AH strategy on purpose to try to reduce their incidence. If it can't be applied or if it fails one then must accept the loss try to learn from it and move on.

I will concede that for many it's easier said than done - but the message is clear imo.
Fair point, but that's not what he actually said in the quote, and it's his quotes which I am saying are misleading, incorrect, and totally inappropriate for a novice trader....

"When you trade with the trend, even if you make a mistake, the market will get you out of your problem"

Edit: It's also repeated in quote 8. "when the market comes back, as it invariably does"



lol@frankenpip
  • #427
  • Aug 31, 2009 10:01am Aug 31, 2009 10:01am
"When you trade with the trend, even if you make a mistake, the market will get you out of your problem"


I also think this is bad advice, but I think it is more the way it is phrased by Jacko.

I am sure he means that if you trade with the trend that in itself is an edge, and if you take good entries with the trend you are more likely to succeed in the long term. But no way does the trend forgive mistakes, and no way can you be guaranteed that the trend will continue.

I mean trading with the trend is obviously better than counter trend trading, however the idea that "the market will get you out of the problem" is obviously not true.
  • #428
  • Aug 31, 2009 10:04am Aug 31, 2009 10:04am
given the right entry and a strong enough trend I contend that more often than not it may do just that - however it's true that trends can reverse in a heartbeat. I also contend that historically markets are cyclical - it's just a matter of how much time occurs between one cycle and the next.
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #429
  • Aug 31, 2009 10:19am Aug 31, 2009 10:19am
I think we can only take the quotes in context, and how they would be read by a novice trader. Sure, we may know better and may be able to read more into what he might have meant or not meant but could the novice who these quotes are directed at?

I guess my point here is would an experienced veteran trader make such statements anyway, especially knowing the likely inexperience of the reader? I know I wouldn't, not even in conversation with the most experienced trader, I would never dream of saying...

"When you trade with the trend, even if you make a mistake, the market will get you out of your problem"

"when the market comes back, as it invariably does"
  • #430
  • Aug 31, 2009 10:41am Aug 31, 2009 10:41am
Quoting coscorp
given the right entry and a strong enough trend I contend that more often than not it may do just that - however it's true that trends can reverse in a heartbeat. I also contend that historically markets are cyclical - it's just a matter of how much time occurs between one cycle and the next.
You could be waiting one heck of a long time for price to return and get you out of trouble though, cycles can last decades. A typical novice mistake is "the market is sure to come back". 9 out of 10 times it might, the 10th time might wipe you out.

Given the right entry and a strong enough trend even my dog could trade
  • #431
  • Aug 31, 2009 10:41am Aug 31, 2009 10:41am
Hold on, can we all just take a deep breath for a second here, there's a danger that some intelligent discussion might break out in this thread.

Here's another point that I have a bone of contention with:

3. "the shorter the time period, the more you are gambling and punting on tiny movements"

If there's one thing I can not stand on internet trading forums it is people claiming that the way that they do it is the only way it can be done. There are as many different ways to trade the markets as there are personalities who attempt to trade them. Granted, not all will be succesfull, but to dismiss every other methodology is pretty ignorant IMO. And to dismiss daytrading/scalping altogether is just plain ridiculous.
  • #432
  • Aug 31, 2009 10:47am Aug 31, 2009 10:47am
"Less than 4 hours tends to be "noise" rather than a "trend"

If anything the exact opposite opposite is true, even when the higher timeframes are not trending the 5Min nearly always trends every day. EURUSD has been pretty sideways over the past few months, but if you were a 5Min trader you still would have been enjoying some nice trends.
  • #433
  • Aug 31, 2009 11:02am Aug 31, 2009 11:02am
Quoting birdt
Hold on, can we all just take a deep breath for a second here, there's a danger that some intelligent discussion might break out in this thread....

Granted - different strokes for different folks but what I see is a difference of opinion on the ultimate risk reward of trading small tf's versus the higher ones - not that it's not possible.

Let's all keep in mind that Jacko traded stocks for quite a while before coming into forex and that his opinions arise from that experience in the first place. Was it just luck that he was able to successfully transfer his idea's into forex? perhaps - but I've always been convinced that any degree of luck comes to those who ultimately work for it.
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #434
  • Aug 31, 2009 11:04am Aug 31, 2009 11:04am
Absolutely!

I think it's completely wrong (not to mention conceited) to believe someone has the monopoly on profitable trading strategies. From personal experience I can say intraday scalping is extremely profitable but I wouldn't dream of saying it's the only way, I also know from experience that other time frames are also profitable.

It's one thing if someone says they can't scalp, it's another thing altogether to say with authority it isn't a profitable strategy.

For example I wouldn't have the patience to trade off the daily or weekly charts but I know profitable traders who do.

Trends and patterns exist in all time frames, and all time frames are tradeable.
  • #435
  • Aug 31, 2009 11:05am Aug 31, 2009 11:05am
Quoting Jigsaw
"Less than 4 hours tends to be "noise" rather than a "trend"

If anything the exact opposite opposite is true, even when the higher timeframes are not trending the 5Min nearly always trends every day. EURUSD has been pretty sideways over the past few months, but if you were a 5Min trader you still would have been enjoying some nice trends.
indeed, it is pretty obvious, that for a trend to develop on a longer timeframe it has to first develop on a shorter one... so having a trend on a longer timeframe withouth trends on a shorter one is pretty impossible.

oh well... one man's trend is another man's noise
I'm not insane; my mother had me tested.
  • #436
  • Aug 31, 2009 11:05am Aug 31, 2009 11:05am
Quoting Jigsaw
"Less than 4 hours tends to be "noise" rather than a "trend"

If anything the exact opposite opposite is true, even when the higher timeframes are not trending the 5Min nearly always trends every day. EURUSD has been pretty sideways over the past few months, but if you were a 5Min trader you still would have been enjoying some nice trends.
I've been looking at the 5 min and haven't been able to clearly discern a trend whereas there is something - as I see it - on daily for example.

The problem with 5 mins (again IMHO)is just that...the movement is good for 5 mins...the next 5 mins...price could go anywhere...and all it takes is for Big Ben to pick his nose at the wrong moment for that to happen.
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #437
  • Aug 31, 2009 11:18am Aug 31, 2009 11:18am
Quoting coscorp
Granted - different strokes for different folks but what I see is a difference of opinion on the ultimate risk reward of trading small tf's versus the higher ones - not that it's not possible.

Let's all keep in mind that Jacko traded stocks for quite a while before coming into forex and that his opinions arise from that experience in the first place. Was it just luck that he was able to successfully transfer his idea's into forex? perhaps - but I've always been convinced that any degree of luck comes to those who ultimately work for it.
But Jacko is putting himself up as a 'mentor', broadly experienced and knowledgable in the field he's offering to mentor people in, it's these quotes which we're picking apart now that makes me question his overall knowledge and experience, we've already dismantled 4 of them and we seem to be in general agreement so far.

You make a good point about risk:reward though, but I think you also need to take into consideration and compare win:lose, the volume of trades, the size of trades, and the frequency of opportunities. Both strategies have their pros and cons but neither are exclusive ways to trade profitably.


3. "the shorter the time period, the more you are gambling and punting on tiny movements"
9. "Less than 4 hours tends to be "noise" rather than a "trend"
  • #438
  • Aug 31, 2009 11:28am Aug 31, 2009 11:28am
Quoting pipmutt
But Jacko is putting himself up as a 'mentor', experienced and knowledgable in the field he's offering to mentor people in, it's these quotes which we're picking apart now that makes me question his overall knowledge and experience, we've already dismantled 3 of them and we seem to be in general agreement so far.
I don't see them as being dismantled - far from it - what I see are differing views which may or may not have more or less validity when taken into a certain context. But one doesn't automatically invalidate the other. Thus I don't see why he cannot be classified as a mentor - at least in the way he sees the market and how he trades it

Quoting pipmutt
make a good point about risk:reward though, but I think you also need to take into consideration and compare win:lose, the volume of trades, the size of trades, and the frequency of opportunities. Both strategies have their pros and cons but neither are exclusive ways to trade profitably.
Granted - however again within the context of his experience, longer t/f's (albeit he has come down to H4 to deal with the increased volatility) offer a better risk/reward even if with far fewer trades...(much less screentime which can be construed as a plus for many)

EDIT: I'd like to clarify once again that these are solely my opinions - based on what I have gleaned while following and interacting with him.
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #439
  • Aug 31, 2009 11:43am Aug 31, 2009 11:43am
Quoting coscorp
I don't see them as being dismantled - far from it...
Views aside, let's have a look at the actual quotes, not as we individually add our particular spin of what we think or believe he might have meant but the actual quotes themselves, which is what I was questioning. Are they accurate? Would you repeat them to even an experienced trader? Would you even think them in the first place? I might be wrong but if you read back through the recent posts so far I think we're in agreement that in the context they were written they're clearly not accurate and in my opinion do not show the broad experience and knowledge required of a mentor, I don't believe a truly broadly experienced trader would ever say these things...


Already covered:

1. "When you trade with the trend, even if you make a mistake, the market will get you out of your problem"

8. "when the market comes back, as it invariably does"

3. "the shorter the time period, the more you are gambling and punting on tiny movements"

9. "Less than 4 hours tends to be "noise" rather than a "trend"



Post Edited
  • #440
  • Aug 31, 2009 12:02pm Aug 31, 2009 12:02pm
Quoting pipmutt
Views aside, let's have a look at the actual quotes, not as we individually add our particular spin of what we think or believe he might have meant but the actual quotes themselves, which is what I was questioning. Are they accurate? Would you repeat them to even an experienced trader? Would you even think them in the first place? I might be wrong but if you read back through the recent posts so far I think we're in agreement that in the context they were written they're clearly not accurate and in my opinion do...
Again I don't see blatant inaccuracy - as the actual quotes themselves stem from personal experience and it isn't necessary for everyone's views to coincide regarding the market and how to trade it. In your experience the statements (taken in their correct context) don't hold true as much as they do in his - fair enough - but from there to blatant inaccuracy....bit of a leap imho.
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
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