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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #10,141
  • Aug 30, 2009 5:04pm Aug 30, 2009 5:04pm
Hmmmh -the JPY opening gaps are almost closed.
Where will it go now???
  • #10,142
  • Aug 30, 2009 5:18pm Aug 30, 2009 5:18pm
Quoting MaMood
Hmmmh -the JPY opening gaps are almost closed.
Where will it go now???
Gunning for last weeks low it seems
  • #10,143
  • Aug 30, 2009 5:21pm Aug 30, 2009 5:21pm
Quoting DutchAngel
ukman

The only assumption you should have about your scout is that YOU are wrong until the market proves you right. Don't waste time and money waiting for her to prove you are wrong. If your scout is misbehaving kill it and move on. Losses are part of this business and learning to take the best loss is what will make you a successful trader.

kind regards
Wrong,you are deviating from basics. either rigidity is creeping into your methodology or your emigating is affecting you mindset. Beware book damage by too many dead scouts. Flipping of directional trade is moderated by impulse and trend not by book. Inability to dance is dangerous to MO.

regards
  • #10,144
  • Aug 30, 2009 5:31pm Aug 30, 2009 5:31pm
Quoting gdb
I wondered if any of the experienced thread members would be kind enough to share how they are currently working fti's methods..

I am gradually experimenting with what suits my circumstances - and obviously very interested to hear what others are finding the most successful and least successful parts (if any) of the strategy..:nerd:

If I am correct, looking at fti's attack sequence - often small pip amounts are taken (with larger positions) to build up the attacks..

With a much more limited budget and smaller position size - how do you...
you are dangerously scalping, instead of dancing. That is why you find difficulty in understanding. You are also aligning your cap as excuse to the MM , this is dangerous. Your state of undercapitalisaton is restricting your MM and therefore will impair your ability to MM the dance properly. You continue down this road and you will find that your cap will impliment tweaks that will hurt your dance and book.

I am quite sure that due to your cap to ROI ratio, you have absolute inabiity to ride , due to mindset.


regards
  • #10,145
  • Aug 30, 2009 5:33pm Aug 30, 2009 5:33pm
Thank you aux and Lusan,you are correct.Right on the ball.

regards
  • #10,146
  • Aug 30, 2009 5:45pm Aug 30, 2009 5:45pm
Quoting gdb
Many thanks

auxesis, GEfx, luSan..for sharing..

Lots of kind advice & experience to internalise and learn from..

Of course your comments creates further questions and curiosity

Earlier in the thread there is an awful lot of discussions regarding skews, rescues etc ..which seems to have lessened now..?
In the AOW - I noticed this quote which was used a few times earlier on:

"Now the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought...etc etc"

Has this taken a back seat...
your experience, exceeds yourself, that in a way , you are correct in you general thinking of the MO. But just because they had paid lesser attention to skews , indicates that they had mastered the dance and the MM is inreality the stretegic difference of flowing with the dance. Howerver in the background of the battle , the MM is the controller of the dance.

There is no vagueness about the polar opposite to technical indicators, at the least , and due to logistically sound MM and mindset, it is just superiior to any lag indicator studies available. Mostly by leaps, due to MO nimbleness.

I think you missed a very critical point and perspective. Think clearly.

regards
  • #10,147
  • Aug 30, 2009 5:48pm Aug 30, 2009 5:48pm
Quoting auxesis
Current UTC time 20:25

Oanda spreads wide atm

1.4301/11
1.6264/74
93.25/45

edit: I'm also showing some corrupt data on the yen, a 4000 pip drop, down to 55.60, LOL that will take them some time to unravel as everyone trades have been closed.
Be a little conservative on the skews to day and tomorrow, Ldn Boys are not on field. She may become dormant or absolutely wild due to illiquidity.

regards
  • #10,148
  • Edited 6:42pm Aug 30, 2009 5:53pm | Edited 6:42pm
Quoting MaMood
Hmmmh -the JPY opening gaps are almost closed.
Where will it go now???
You had seen this dance played out before. If you can remember , you was a flea , then, remember?


The question is what would be the reaction of the NIhon Keidenren, if the stonger yen deprives them of the competitive edge. And you already knowhe answer to that. Of course for now their ewsolve should be intensely tested.


regards
  • #10,149
  • Aug 30, 2009 7:04pm Aug 30, 2009 7:04pm
Quoting fti
your experience, exceeds yourself, that in a way , you are correct in you general thinking of the MO. But just because they had paid lesser attention to skews , indicates that they had mastered the dance and the MM is inreality the stretegic difference of flowing with the dance. Howerver in the background of the battle , the MM is the controller of the dance.

There is no vagueness about the polar opposite to technical indicators, at the least , and due to logistically sound MM and mindset, it is just superiior to any lag indicator studies available....
Thanks for your comments fti..
I think I am slowly beginning to understand?
That the dance encompasses everything all at the same time..
The mm, the mo - everything being a natural reaction to the markets movement at any given time..
And that takes much skill, preparation, dedication, guidance and practise for this to become second nature when trading..
And is far easier to talk about - than to actually do...
regards
  • #10,150
  • Aug 30, 2009 7:11pm Aug 30, 2009 7:11pm
Quoting MaMood
Hmmmh -the JPY opening gaps are almost closed.
Where will it go now???
Man...you are up in Germany?!
Forex addiction or commitment!!
Definitely
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #10,151
  • Aug 30, 2009 8:48pm Aug 30, 2009 8:48pm
So much too learn.
Is this politics?
If so...watch out...
people like what they saw and
began betting on the yen....
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #10,152
  • Aug 30, 2009 8:54pm Aug 30, 2009 8:54pm
Quoting fti
Be a little conservative on the skews to day and tomorrow, Ldn Boys are not on field. She may become dormant or absolutely wild due to illiquidity.

regards
Yes, agreed, thanks.
  • #10,153
  • Aug 31, 2009 7:59am Aug 31, 2009 7:59am
A beautifull trade...
How did it happens...
pure position managment...

Done for the day...Now I need to go to my lab and play with my chemicals...
I will see you tonight.
Tschus.

Warning: the SMA12 is there for emotional attachment...
a memory of past and insane days.
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #10,154
  • Aug 31, 2009 8:08am Aug 31, 2009 8:08am
Disney to acquire Marvel for 4B
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #10,155
  • Aug 31, 2009 8:13am Aug 31, 2009 8:13am
Quoting maheswara
Disney to acquire Marvel for 4B
what?? what is stand lee doing!
  • #10,156
  • Aug 31, 2009 8:20am Aug 31, 2009 8:20am
Quoting maheswara
Disney to acquire Marvel for 4B
and 60% in cash. they need alot of usd.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #10,157
  • Aug 31, 2009 9:05am Aug 31, 2009 9:05am
today I'm not trading. Not enough liquidity in markets
  • #10,158
  • Aug 31, 2009 9:11am Aug 31, 2009 9:11am
Just posting as i lost my sibscription to this thread.
  • #10,159
  • Aug 31, 2009 9:24am Aug 31, 2009 9:24am
If understood correctly out MM should be to try to achive a constant profit without many deviations? Therefore depends on markets we place positions and we shouldn't trade from the book but feel the market?
  • #10,160
  • Aug 31, 2009 9:42am Aug 31, 2009 9:42am
Happy trading day to everyone. Looks like the summer vacation days are over, with a great trading day so far. I am taking a break now for a fresh cup of coffee and a breath of fresh air. I try to take this time off every day, as NY fixing is approaching and I think Europe is closing out their day about now. Will be back at about 12:00 NY time for more, I hope. Good trading everyone.
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