It seems to me wherever there is uncertainty, there is an immediate reaction to buy the "safe havens". So, since there is a new ruling party after 50+ years, in the immediate near term (maybe two days to a week) the yen should certainly show strength. I also read an article back in July where this new leader said he thinks there should be a regional currency move away from the dollar.
Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
- #192,502
- Edited 6:10pm Aug 30, 2009 11:10am | Edited 6:10pm
hey malc
i saw your chart for the 4th wave and you did 5 waves and by ending those 5 waves you assumed that we finshed the 4th wave !!
this is not acceptable in EW rules
look at the chart i attached here it will show the style of the biggest wave for GJ
why we dont say those 5 waves were only WAVE A and we are in WAVE B and soon we will shoot up in WAVE C
WAVE 1, WAVE 3 and WAVE 5 should be from 12345 style
WAVE 2 and WAVE 4 should be in ABC style
so until now no one posted 100% correct counting that shows GJ finshed its 4th wave...
- #192,504
- Aug 30, 2009 12:18pm Aug 30, 2009 12:18pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
lots of talking on JPY due to election .
If the dollar index goes to where the charts suggest Gu will tank ...we could have some form of buy asia , sell euro / us .. so the reatrcements will take place in Asia under low volume and pros will use this to their advantage , will be an interesting week for sure.
15 min chart ....seems buyers at 152 zone for sure , so that is support
sellers 153.50 that is resistance
poc for last 20 session is 156.44 , under this bears in control , also high volume zones 154 , 155,5
GU i like for swing trade based on dollar strength
gj day trade pair....
If the dollar index goes to where the charts suggest Gu will tank ...we could have some form of buy asia , sell euro / us .. so the reatrcements will take place in Asia under low volume and pros will use this to their advantage , will be an interesting week for sure.
15 min chart ....seems buyers at 152 zone for sure , so that is support
sellers 153.50 that is resistance
poc for last 20 session is 156.44 , under this bears in control , also high volume zones 154 , 155,5
GU i like for swing trade based on dollar strength
gj day trade pair....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #192,507
- Edited 1:35pm Aug 30, 2009 1:22pm | Edited 1:35pm
- | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,666 Posts
i hope it opens at that level cos i sneaked in a small short earlier today from 152 
showing 149.47 right now. eurjpy is showing a similar drop. usdjpy only down about 20 pips.
considering whether to increase my short before it opens hmmm
showing 149.47 right now. eurjpy is showing a similar drop. usdjpy only down about 20 pips.
considering whether to increase my short before it opens hmmm
- #192,508
- Aug 30, 2009 1:28pm Aug 30, 2009 1:28pm
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
Can you hear me now bull traders?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=192431
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=192431
hehe
still silence on oanda
[
- #192,511
- Aug 30, 2009 1:46pm Aug 30, 2009 1:46pm
i hope it opens at that level cos i sneaked in a small short earlier today from 152
showing 149.47 right now. eurjpy is showing a similar drop. usdjpy only down about 20 pips.
considering whether to increase my short before it opens hmmm
- #192,514
- Aug 30, 2009 2:01pm Aug 30, 2009 2:01pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Saudi Arabia/Dubai | 3,584 Posts
r u really sure ... wave 4 is 50 % retarce wave 3 .... so suits ew rules
and wave 5 could be truncated
http://thepatternsite.com/EWTruncation.html
the truncated 5th wave happens in bull markets and is VERY bearish .... so those expecting another wave up ..... better ask why
why has dj rise 1000 points in weeks ? really it rose on 1 ) most of the trading happening in about 5 stocks ,2 ) earning per sahre better than the low expectations. Most companies have lost 30 % plus revenue
s&p is now trading at a p/e ratio of real earnings...
yes i am sure
i saw your chart and know what you mean by 5th wave getting tired and being canceled then go down
this also happens but its not in our case
because that wave you show me is impulse wave
and we are in 4th wave which is a correction wave
how can we have impulse wave in going up and going down thats not acceptable
as i said we need ABC in going up
no problem we have impulse going as retrace but it should be as WAVE A since we are dealing with big frames then B as ABC then C as 12345 also
here is the types of correction waves :
Corrective patterns fall into four main categories:
Zigzags (5-3-5; includes three variations: single, double, triple);
Flats (3-3-5; includes three variations: regular, expanded, running);
Triangles (3-3-3-3-3; four types: ascending, descending, contracting, expanding);
Double threes and triple threes (combined structures).
try to figure out which type we are using right now
any way i just came back from paintball
i will try to relax and post my charts before the market start peace bro
- #192,515
- Aug 30, 2009 2:01pm Aug 30, 2009 2:01pm
conveniently instantly back to 152 now, just usual BS prices on them things before anything opens.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
- #192,516
- Aug 30, 2009 2:03pm Aug 30, 2009 2:03pm
- | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,666 Posts
Really? 'cos my experience has been the exact opposite. I've been studying weekend data for the past 3-4 months and price has always reached the weekend quotes within the next trading week.
Looks like the margin of victory is buoying Asian sentiment not dampening it.
it may give a clue as to where it WILL go once the market opens, i havent really taken much notice of it other than prices called out over the weekend are never where it opens.and it didnt go from 149 to 152 in 'minutes' it was instant, much like the initial drop was according to that site. oanda is still showing no movement at all, which is strange as its normally started moving before now.
- #192,517
- Aug 30, 2009 2:05pm Aug 30, 2009 2:05pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trend is not my friend | 1,492 Posts
Prices went to 149.40 @ XE.com that was from one hour, but now went back to 152.25 very close to Friday's close, are we going to see a gap? will prices drop again to 149.xx level? what was the reason for this strange drop? are we still in a bearish mode? is it a good idea to sell rallies? what is the reversal level? all these questions in my mind now
- #192,518
- Aug 30, 2009 2:08pm Aug 30, 2009 2:08pm
- Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
Prices went to 149.40 @ XE.com that was from one hour, but now went back to 152.25 very close to Friday's close, are we going to see a gap? will prices drop again to 149.xx level? what was the reason for this strange drop? are we still in a bearish mode? is it a good idea to sell rallies? what is the reversal level? all these questions in my mind now
momentum is very bearish so we will se at least bottom test
- #192,519
- Aug 30, 2009 2:09pm Aug 30, 2009 2:09pm
Prices went to 149.40 @ XE.com that was from one hour, but now went back to 152.25 very close to Friday's close, are we going to see a gap? will prices drop again to 149.xx level? what was the reason for this strange drop? are we still in a bearish mode? is it a good idea to sell rallies? what is the reversal level? all these questions in my mind now
I think there is no conspiracy or something. Some broker with hungover has put a cup of cofee on keyboard. lol
- #192,520
- Aug 30, 2009 2:11pm Aug 30, 2009 2:11pm
- Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,753 Posts
within the next trading week? it was only 200 pips down, it moves 250-300 on an average DAY
and it didnt go from 149 to 152 in 'minutes' it was instant, much like the initial drop was according to that site. oanda is still showing no movement at all, which is strange as its normally started moving before now.
I remember people scoffing when the Friday close was at 149 and weekend data showed a drop of 800 pips. The Asian open then wiped out the weekend drop before a rapid fall into that level. Self fulfilling prophesy perhaps.
Anyway, despite what we might see over the next few hours, I think we'll see sub 150 soon.