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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #192,481
  • Aug 30, 2009 5:59am Aug 30, 2009 5:59am
looks like democrats are going to win the jap election. i am wondering what effects this is going to have though. stronger yen or weaker yen. might see some big moves when market opens, but not sure which way
  • #192,482
  • Aug 30, 2009 6:19am Aug 30, 2009 6:19am
Quoting ewokuk
looks like democrats are going to win the jap election. i am wondering what effects this is going to have though. stronger yen or weaker yen. might see some big moves when market opens, but not sure which way

I read in one of the threads that the financial guy in democratic party stated that Japan will continue to buy UST only if they will be denominated in yen. They want the so called samurai bonds. It might evoke corresponding expectations and make yen stronger for a while, until the new Minister of Finance will clarify his/her position.
  • #192,483
  • Aug 30, 2009 6:52am Aug 30, 2009 6:52am
Quoting malcolmb14
I think wave 5 was truncated on way up at 163.....

Attachment
hey malc

i saw your chart for the 4th wave and you did 5 waves and by ending those 5 waves you assumed that we finshed the 4th wave !!

this is not acceptable in EW rules

look at the chart i attached here it will show the style of the biggest wave for GJ

why we dont say those 5 waves were only WAVE A and we are in WAVE B and soon we will shoot up in WAVE C

WAVE 1, WAVE 3 and WAVE 5 should be from 12345 style
WAVE 2 and WAVE 4 should be in ABC style

so until now no one posted 100% correct counting that shows GJ finshed its 4th wave

so conclusion we are still bullish until we finshed WAVE 4 even if price goes down to 149 or 150 at the end it will shoot up again

GJ have 146 as the lowest in the worst cases if we go below 146 then i will say 4th wave finshed

i finshed my analysis for the 4th wave and i will post it here later today i just wanna make sure its 100% correct because i spent 4 hours trying to figure out the best counting and i have 2 charts now one of them is wrong for sure
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  • #192,484
  • Aug 30, 2009 7:07am Aug 30, 2009 7:07am
jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesus oanda are obviously expecting some huge moves because gbpjpy is sitting on a 50 pip spread!!!! its normally 20 over weekend.

democrats have won it seems. wondering if that strengthens the yen, i guess it might.
  • #192,485
  • Aug 30, 2009 8:43am Aug 30, 2009 8:43am
I'm just watching the election results on tv right now and Aso is being interviewed about the loss. It will be very interesting for us to see what is really going to happen when the markets open this week.
  • #192,486
  • Aug 30, 2009 8:51am Aug 30, 2009 8:51am
Quoting Betting
I'm just watching the election results on tv right now and Aso is being interviewed about the loss. It will be very interesting for us to see what is really going to happen when the markets open this week.
I think it's gonna be a volatile session in Asia. Investors are usually nervous about the political & economical uncertainties with a new government. Very interesting to see indeed what is coming ..
Needs a special care for the trade, TA might temporarily be put aside by the market.
  • #192,487
  • Aug 30, 2009 8:54am Aug 30, 2009 8:54am
My view:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #192,488
  • Aug 30, 2009 9:10am Aug 30, 2009 9:10am
Quoting msniper
hey malc

i saw your chart for the 4th wave and you did 5 waves and by ending those 5 waves you assumed that we finshed the 4th wave !!

this is not acceptable in EW rules

look at the chart i attached here it will show the style of the biggest wave for GJ

why we dont say those 5 waves were only WAVE A and we are in WAVE B and soon we will shoot up in WAVE C

WAVE 1, WAVE 3 and WAVE 5 should be from 12345 style
WAVE 2 and WAVE 4 should be in ABC style

so until now no one posted 100% correct counting that shows GJ finshed its 4th wave

so...
Time well spent...

Goes with my analysis.. UP..it goes..
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #192,489
  • Aug 30, 2009 9:11am Aug 30, 2009 9:11am
Remember guys, if she buys up in Tokyo we expecting sell off in London!
  • #192,490
  • Aug 30, 2009 9:11am Aug 30, 2009 9:11am
Quoting Raza
Time well spent...

Goes with my analysis.. UP..it goes..
Limited to 154-155
  • #192,491
  • Aug 30, 2009 9:14am Aug 30, 2009 9:14am
Quoting mktjong
I think it's gonna be a volatile session in Asia. Investors are usually nervous about the political & economical uncertainties with a new government. Very interesting to see indeed what is coming ..
Needs a special care for the trade, TA might temporarily be put aside by the market.
...and Monday is bank holiday in England. Is going to be an interesting Monday, no doubt.

I've been thinking about the bear sentiment and as uktrader said, the smart money may move up.
(as someone said, "when it's obvious, it's obviously wrong.")

Now that the cable is flirting with a drop I wouldn't be surprised at BOE intervention. Some people think we are poised for a depression era scenario, but I have serious doubts.

I think we've only begun to see intervention on the part of the central banks. And, the US, Japanese, EU, Chinese governments will probably step up their deficit spending (to record levels) to prevent a collapse.

Take Belgium as an example. They prevented an economic collapse by running a massive deficit through the mid 90's, and their economy eventually stabilized.

clip from wiki -

In 1992-93, the Belgian economy suffered the worst recession since World War II, with the real GDP declining 1.7% in 1993. Growth improved in 1999, with real GDP growing by an estimated 2.2% (year-on-year) versus the 2% figure recorded in 1998. Business investment (up 4.0% in real terms) and exports (up 4.4%) provided the economy's impetus. Private consumption, held back by weak consumer confidence and stagnant real wages, grew by 1% in real terms and public consumption by 0.9%.

So, even though the technicals are pointing down, the fundis may be pointing up.
.
  • #192,492
  • Aug 30, 2009 9:14am Aug 30, 2009 9:14am
Quoting 5ysfx
Limited to 154-155
..

Lots of money is on the sidelines..waiting to get into Markets... including Mine... lol ...

This OCTOBER is not gonna be RED...IMO..
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #192,493
  • Aug 30, 2009 9:27am Aug 30, 2009 9:27am
Sorry. I'm new at posting charts. Here's mine:

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Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #192,494
  • Aug 30, 2009 9:37am Aug 30, 2009 9:37am
Quoting Fudomyo
...and Monday is bank holiday in England. Is going to be an interesting Monday, no doubt.

I've been thinking about the bear sentiment and as uktrader said, the smart money may move up.
(as someone said, "when it's obvious, it's obviously wrong.")

Now that the cable is flirting with a drop I wouldn't be surprised at BOE intervention. Some people think we are poised for a depression era scenario, but I have serious doubts.

I think we've only begun to see intervention on the part of the central banks. And, the US, Japanese, EU, Chinese governments...
I think there are 3 likely scenarios of what's gonna happen:
- Market would drive the JPY up in hope its economic would change for better. This stronger Yen would only last briefly as uncertainty would come into play.
- Market woud trade sideways in small ranges waiting for cue in NY session to lead.
- Market would sell off Yen, due to most investors don't like the uncertainties. This is likely to happen in my opinion as investors would like to take a safe haven first with wait and see attitude. This could cause a gap up on all Yen pairs.
But let's wait and see, just follow what the markets bring us.
  • #192,495
  • Aug 30, 2009 9:59am Aug 30, 2009 9:59am
Japan’s stocks and bond yields may rise on prospects the DPJ will increase spending to boost growth. Ten-year government bond yields will probably rise to 1.7 percent from 1.31 percent by year-end, while the Nikkei 225 Stock Average will advance about 14 percent to as high as 12,000, said Yuuki Sakurai, chief executive officer of Fukoku Capital Management Inc. in Tokyo.

“It’s a landslide victory for the DPJ and the equity market will remain excited for a couple of days or even a couple of weeks,” said Sakurai, who helps to manage about 800 billion yen ($8.5 billion) in assets.

The yen is also likely to benefit from the DPJ’s pledge to give the Bank of Japan more autonomy, increasing the scope for the central bank to raise interest rates earlier. JPMorgan Chase & Co. overnight interest-rate swaps signal a 19 percent chance borrowing costs will be lifted by the end of July.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=agcFJU45Hq_8
[
  • #192,496
  • Aug 30, 2009 10:02am Aug 30, 2009 10:02am

  1. Tomorrow's DPP = 152.62
  2. Tomorrow's WPP = 153.37
  3. Tomorrow's OPEN (if no GAPS) = 152.24
  4. the Last Breakout point is 153.50
  5. Daily 5sma = 153.24
  6. Weekly Gann flipped Over..

Now,.. watch the DPP [152.62] and the Daily 5sma. If we close 15min above the DPP tomorow, then we are "after" daily 5sma [153.24] or even to test the breakout point [153.50]..
The odds are on Bearish side.. and looks like it "Should" be holding that level.. [strong S/R].

However, if we close, break, or run above.. the 153.50 then for sure we are going to test some upper levels, and realy depends of the Float and Volume, we clould see some levels higher, or close to 154.20

From the technical point of view, the 153.50 should give us a quite good resistance.. and keep the PA.. Down...

As in our markets nothing is SURE for "SURE".. then.. we have to play the market Game...

cheers!

  • #192,497
  • Aug 30, 2009 10:07am Aug 30, 2009 10:07am
Quoting rgitt05
Japan’s stocks and bond yields may rise on prospects the DPJ will increase spending to boost growth. Ten-year government bond yields will probably rise to 1.7 percent from 1.31 percent by year-end, while the Nikkei 225 Stock Average will advance about 14 percent to as high as 12,000, said Yuuki Sakurai, chief executive officer of Fukoku Capital Management Inc. in Tokyo.

“It’s a landslide victory for the DPJ and the equity market will remain excited for a couple of days or even a couple of weeks,” said Sakurai, who helps to manage about 800 billion...
yes it seems jap stocks might fly when market opens, but at the same time yen might also strengthen when this would normally weaken it. if it does then gj could drop like a rock. if it drops we might see 147 by tuesday. im expecting a big gap one way or the other, as is oanda by the looks of their spread.
  • #192,498
  • Edited 10:47am Aug 30, 2009 10:34am | Edited 10:47am
Quoting msniper
hey malc

i saw your chart for the 4th wave and you did 5 waves and by ending those 5 waves you assumed that we finshed the 4th wave !!

this is not acceptable in EW rules

look at the chart i attached here it will show the style of the biggest wave for GJ

why we dont say those 5 waves were only WAVE A and we are in WAVE B and soon we will shoot up in WAVE C

WAVE 1, WAVE 3 and WAVE 5 should be from 12345 style
WAVE 2 and WAVE 4 should be in ABC style

so until now no one posted 100% correct counting that shows GJ finshed its 4th wave...
r u really sure ... wave 4 is 50 % retarce wave 3 .... so suits ew rules

and wave 5 could be truncated
http://thepatternsite.com/EWTruncation.html

the truncated 5th wave happens in bull markets and is VERY bearish .... so those expecting another wave up ..... better ask why

why has dj rise 1000 points in weeks ? really it rose on 1 ) most of the trading happening in about 5 stocks ,2 ) earning per sahre better than the low expectations. Most companies have lost 30 % plus revenue

s&p is now trading at a p/e ratio of real earnings at 110 as of this week . 2001 before 5000 point tankage in dj it was ONLY trading at p/e 45 . This mean based on pure vlaue s&p is going down

staples and dell , both very good indicators of corporate spending were down 38 % and 23% respectively in earnings this quarter

technicaly dj is moving in 100 % fre waves up ...we just stalled on last 100 % fe wave that could also be top of wave 5 , reatrcements of up waves have been 61.8% that takes us down to 8678 thru sept , and that is IF the overall trend of down is not to continue

so right now we get at least some for of reatrce , if noit a new wave 5 patterns down on the dj

this mean that 163 on gj was a truncated wave 5 on gj . as NO way will gj rise with dj dropping , gu i exoect 1.5500 by mid sept and with Japan elections the JPY may get strogner

I liquidated all longs in my stock account as of Friday .
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #192,499
  • Aug 30, 2009 10:36am Aug 30, 2009 10:36am
Quoting mktjong
But let's wait and see, just follow what the markets bring us.
I agree. I was thinking about the long term outlook concerning a major drop in my last post. Short term, I don't think anyone knows how the markets going to react to this. It's a very big change for Japan.
  • #192,500
  • Aug 30, 2009 10:54am Aug 30, 2009 10:54am
jpy futres is inverse uj ....

bullish continuation wedge on daily

last 2 dips in jpy futures on daily have been bought into ....jpy shows we are off to test 109 on the futures ... very bearish for uj and gj , rsx on jpy also green so bullish for now

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