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4H Box Breakout

  • #2,821
  • Aug 29, 2009 10:58pm Aug 29, 2009 10:58pm
Quoting yonnie
why dont you do some work and backtest this and show the results here in this forum????
On the other hand, so could you.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,822
  • Aug 29, 2009 11:02pm Aug 29, 2009 11:02pm
Quoting yen44x
On the other hand, so could you.
  • #2,823
  • Aug 30, 2009 12:59am Aug 30, 2009 12:59am
Quoting yen44x
On the other hand, so could you.
smooth...
  • #2,824
  • Aug 30, 2009 5:01am Aug 30, 2009 5:01am
Quoting yen44x
Actually, we can choose a "partial" loss by adopting the suggestion to set the SL at 50% of the box. I'm leaning more toward a SL of 60-65% of the box, but even that would still improve R:R considerably.

Another factor in my decision to take partial profits was the research showing that a breakout will go at least 100 pips the great majority of the time. If I can close one lot at 100 pips or so, I'm much more relaxed about letting my second lot run its course.

I think we've traded posts in the past on the infamous OzFX system, right? Were...
Yes, good old days, that Kevin would come up with some good ideas every now and then, I don't know what happened to him, just disappeared.

Always following the foot steps of your burros.
Regards
  • #2,825
  • Aug 30, 2009 6:50am Aug 30, 2009 6:50am
Quoting yen44x
I understand that you think you understood my post, but it could all be a misunderstanding.

BTW, I noticed your profile mentions you're from Sweden. Well, let me say your ability to turn a phrase in English is better than 99% of the native English posters (me included . . . ok, especially me).
LOL!

Regarding the second part,
Wow, thanks man!
That really warms my poor swedish heart to hear!
There's a saying in german that goes: "Even a blind hen will eventually find a piece of corn".
lol, no really, thanks man, that was really nice what you said!

Cheers!
  • #2,826
  • Aug 30, 2009 7:34am Aug 30, 2009 7:34am
Quoting yen44x
On the other hand, so could you.
What point to back test? It's been done. some turtles still need more proof and indicators
  • #2,827
  • Aug 30, 2009 9:09am Aug 30, 2009 9:09am
yen,

How we know this week is ranging or not. There are several indicator can be use such as bb or ma. Although we not sure it break or not we use the buffer to indicate theRe are strong movement or long candle movement. I only put tp 1 or 1.5 which base on backtest result. Whether it only an estimate target it still follow the ace systems originally. It completedly less monitoring system during the trading.

Whether I sacrified at ranging time is not the issue. Due to we put sl at the box side. Moving the be to tp1 after tp2 is can be done only at strong movement not for ranging time. Due to ranging time it less strength and a lot of zig zag movement.
  • #2,828
  • Aug 30, 2009 9:14am Aug 30, 2009 9:14am
how many positions do you people open if there are 4 tp levels?
i saw that some of you 2 - but isn't it a good idea to set 4 pending orders for each tp level? This is how I understood this strategy. I'm reading since abou 100th page but this is still unclear to me, what is the "official" version now.
Btw the size of each pending order can be set according to probability of hitting particular TP level (just an idea) does it make sense?


anyway, thanks for answering my question
  • #2,829
  • Aug 30, 2009 9:52am Aug 30, 2009 9:52am
Quoting cinex
how many positions do you people open if there are 4 tp levels?
i saw that some of you 2 - but isn't it a good idea to set 4 pending orders for each tp level? This is how I understood this strategy. I'm reading since abou 100th page but this is still unclear to me, what is the "official" version now.
Btw the size of each pending order can be set according to probability of hitting particular TP level (just an idea) does it make sense?


anyway, thanks for answering my question
hi cinex,

It's amazing the amount of misinformation and disinformation that abounds as the longevity of a particular thread matures. Ace has given us a "turn-key" system that works abundantly well without any changes. End of story...

Not really. Witness the profusion of modifiers and pundits that offer flawed, or little to no research to back up their claims of "improvements" to Ace's original system. Most of these "improvements" are suspect and do little but introduce chaos and confusion.

Then there are some folks who like to "visit" on the thread without adding any real value, but clog up the thread with useless chit-chat.

Not to mention the well-intentined swarm of traders hell-bent on developing an automated EA trading method so they won't have to be bothered with making trading decisions.

Whoops...I almost left out those of us who just sit back and rant at the antics of others! LOL

And finally, in response to your question regarding the number of orders, It's simply this. Ace directs us to use just one TP level per box side:

GBP/JPY = 4X (most profitable TP level)

Good trading!
  • #2,830
  • Aug 30, 2009 10:30am Aug 30, 2009 10:30am
Quoting Bobcat2
hi cinex,

It's amazing the amount of misinformation and disinformation that abounds as the longevity of a particular thread matures. Ace has given us a "turn-key" system that works abundantly well without any changes. End of story...

Not really. Witness the profusion of modifiers and pundits that offer flawed, or little to no research to back up their claims of "improvements" to Ace's original system. Most of these "improvements" are suspect and do little but introduce chaos and confusion.

Then there are some folks who like to "visit"...
Ace's core system as it is in the original post would have destroyed anyone's account who would have been using this system in the years of 2000-2006. For those years, the first 4H bar sets the average of the weekly price, not the high or low. it wasn't until mid/end of week that the prices started moving in one direction or another.

Is Ace's system good? Definitely, no questions asked, Could it be improved? Definitely, No questions asked.

My revision on this system is expected to have an approximate 4% drawdown which it is currently 8% drawdown with a 100% return over 8 months trading ONLY .1 lot sizes

I can't say what my system is, or exactly how to use it, because I guess it would be classified as "commercial intent" or whatever, but the bottom line is that the system is currently VERY flawed, and ONLY works for this year near flawlessly, every other year is deathblow after deathblow. This is what you all need to focus on, not the year of 2009 results, but the years of 2000 results, if it can last through that, good show.
  • #2,831
  • Aug 30, 2009 10:36am Aug 30, 2009 10:36am
Statistics Total trades70 Winners13Losers20Breakeven (BE)19No Trades (NT)18 Win % (no BE or NT) 39%Loss % (no BE or NT)61% Average Size Win$4,755.41Average Size Loss-$1,699.50 Largest Win$6,829.19Largest Loss-$2,000.00 Largest Drawdown-11.64% Starting Balance$35,824.74 Ending Balance$63,655.07 % Return77.68%

I mistakenly used 4% risk per trade for 09 in my previous post. Using 3%, the results are above, at parameters as mentioned, ad nauseum, in my previous posts, lol....

Tom
  • #2,832
  • Aug 30, 2009 10:44am Aug 30, 2009 10:44am
I mistakenly used 4% risk per trade for 09 in my previous post. Using 3%, the results are above, at parameters as mentioned, ad nauseum, in my previous posts, lol....

Tom

Sorry about that, previous attachment didn't post correctly...
Attached Image
  • #2,833
  • Edited 11:00am Aug 30, 2009 10:50am | Edited 11:00am
Quoting Bobcat2
Ace directs us to use just one TP level per box side:

GBP/JPY = 4X (most profitable TP level)
Bobcat, thanks.
thread is not too bad, it works how it should work - brainstorm, not everything has to make sense but... one thought leads to another and the first post always can be modyfied if there's real improvement (proved on history) and i think it was (move sl to be rule)

And that's good news for me becuse i was getting ready for 4xSL if sth goes wrong (i have not go live with that strategy yet) but i'm still not sure if it isn't a better thing to go with 4 pending orders - i think it IS better IF it would produce similar results as it did in last few months
OMG soooo many things to check!

wish you people many profits this week or maybe even this night
  • #2,834
  • Aug 30, 2009 10:57am Aug 30, 2009 10:57am
Quoting Pharoah
Ace's core system as it is in the original post would have destroyed anyone's account who would have been using this system in the years of 2000-2006. For those years, the first 4H bar sets the average of the weekly price, not the high or low. it wasn't until mid/end of week that the prices started moving in one direction or another.

Is Ace's system good? Definitely, no questions asked, Could it be improved? Definitely, No questions asked.

My revision on this system is expected to have an approximate 4% drawdown which it is currently 8% drawdown...
One only need eyeball the charts prior to 07 to see that it would have been very rough to hang in there with certain versions of this system. A more exhaustive backtest shows that you could have broke even, or maybe squeeked out a profit, if you were able to PERFECTLY simulate the backtest from 1/1/04 forward. I think this is an unlikely proposition. Who amongst us would chop around for a number of years, at or below breakeven, without knowing that the system would skyrocket from 1/1/07 forward? Not many, or any.

It is not clear to me that your method would have increased the likelihood of success, but I'm game to anything that would work in those types of markets. To be honest, I have tried to backtest your method during parts of those early years, and I was chewed up and spit out during whipsaws. Perhaps I don't understand your method fully...

Tom
  • #2,835
  • Aug 30, 2009 11:12am Aug 30, 2009 11:12am
Hi All,

Found this great EA that I think is ideal for us in this thread.

It basic manages your trades by moving SL to BE, taking partial profit etc etc.

I'm going to try it in demo this week

I'll post the out come later

Link below

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=9553

Debdaz
Getting out the Rat Race
  • #2,836
  • Aug 30, 2009 11:46am Aug 30, 2009 11:46am
ace have you tried to apply this great method to any other pairs? it would seem to me to have potential on more than just yen pairs.
  • #2,837
  • Aug 30, 2009 11:47am Aug 30, 2009 11:47am
Hello Breadman,

Did you check out Ace's first post? If not, you can get that information from there.

Regards,
Jeff

Quoting Breadman
ace have you tried to apply this great method to any other pairs? it would seem to me to have potential on more than just yen pairs.
  • #2,838
  • Aug 30, 2009 11:59am Aug 30, 2009 11:59am
Quoting TYoung6608
To be honest, I have tried to backtest your method during parts of those early years, and I was chewed up and spit out during whipsaws. Perhaps I don't understand your method fully...

Tom
No, you most likely do understand my basic method (this was my first dev process of the system) and I had posted back before that I was going to be giving you all my findings as my particular system came from the knowledge of others here, like Ace for this fantastic breakout method, but it got removed.

I noticed this too when backtesting before jan this year basically, the whipsaws did the exact same thing to me, and as a result of my backtesting back before that point, I noticed that there were a few flaws in the "Basic" stoploss rules, I've since refined them, and will be giving you all my findings in a hopefully easy to read and understand format. I expect that even in previous years, my system will produce positive results, how positive? This will be tested within a months timeframe, as I am having an EA built specifically around my rules, and subrules. I will not be providing the EA itself, but I will be giving a detailed document as to the exact workings of my system.
  • #2,839
  • Aug 30, 2009 12:08pm Aug 30, 2009 12:08pm
Quoting nubchai
Ace there's evidently a British banking holiday on Monday and Labor Day is next Monday in the US.

Do you still trade these weeks and if so do you make any adjustments ? E.g. reduce lot sizes. Or do you trade as usual?

Thanks!

Sandy
Major political change in Japan as of today (but trading a yen pair, you all knew that already, right ?), so could be a very volatile week...
  • #2,840
  • Aug 30, 2009 12:13pm Aug 30, 2009 12:13pm
Quoting azjeff
Hello Breadman,

Did you check out Ace's first post? If not, you can get that information from there.

Regards,
Jeff

jeff
yes i did read the first post(and all the rest of them)

This system works on many JPY pairs.
GBP/JPY
EUR/JPY
AUD/JPY
CHF/JPY
CAD/JPY
**GBP/JPY is the best pair.
May work on other pairs, testing is required however.

i was asking if ace had done any testing on other pairs.
regards
breadman

ps i have looking gb/us
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