Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

My view is Different.. From here max 149..if it goes below than ..I am wrong...next hope for me would be at 146.. from there long term target is 183..

that daily divergence already play out for 1200pips...
we have a hidden bullish divergence on now ..hmm that is what i see for now some move to the up side is possible..
late wait bro

double top with bearish divergence - mostly price makes new low after that this means drop below 149 is highly likely in current environment
u dont need to watch daily or weekly TF to realize it

switch to m5 or m15 and look for it there are plenty of such patterns.

Well as I said 14650, WAVE WISE, not taking into consideration r/s, pivots and other indi's of course. I agree with Don that the divergence could have played out although you can't be sure about that, after all am showing daily chart and on a daily those 500 points extra down isn't all that much imho....Anyways time will tell. I expect a lotta action next week with the Europeans back!

Yes i`m agree with u don friday, this my chart on time frame 4 hours and 4 hours nearly oversold. daily also nearly oversold. we`re going to the upside.

daily not close to being oversold ....

4 hour .. the bounce 151 to 153.50 gave the bull div time to come out and now indicator is ready to curl down

simple inverted hammer 153.... very simple

nothing suggesting this is going up ... in fact it was sold all asia and euro session

gbpjpy

sell area

15681
15604
15546

buy area

15074
15028
14941

Just to let you know that we appreciate your work Malc, we read you all week long and wish to thank you for your generosity.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Sunny et al

Overall the daily major TL is BEARISH.

Higher TF are BEARISH

BS rallies are all BEARISH

Fundamentals ARE ALL BEARISH

The world feels BEARISH

WHO the hell is Bullish?



Can you hear me now?

PA will move to the least resistance and test the lows again 146,141, 137 levels on the fibs.

If the 141.00 level holds than possible another rally to test the upper TL again which happen to be 163.00 highs( Major bearish TL) and reverse to form
H&S formation.

If the 141.00 level breaks than 137.00 zone is the major LTL to test before a possible reversal.

Reversal back up to test the 141.00 level before another drop..

If all HELL breaks lose than GJ is testing the major LTL near the 120 zone and lower..

Look at the timeline this may happen.

Last year I remembered the last three months to fall many pips..

I hope this year PA repeat itself.

Many pips to those who follow the trend and Price Action

who can be bullish seeing such bearish monthly candle ? LOL
at least 2 months (two black/red candle) of bears control.

Look to me as a Finger more then a H/S formation, the neck is too long, the shoulders too short... have a look..If it is a H/S then we already broke the NL.. [weekly dashed gray line].. But the problem Im having here at this moment is a 9653 level.. looking back in history.. we are bouncing very hard everytime we touch that level.

A possible bounce back to retest the LTL of the chanel [daily], arround 8850, before anything.. Then we'll see.. (that's about 700points in DJIA)

[Charts]

have to say we're still in bear mode because of being lower than the major ma's on my chart. the last upmove seemed to stall out.

Here's a different perspective on the up channel based off the monthly chart. (fig.1)

If you look at the daily chart (fig.2) we have followed the line of travel (center dotted line) as a center of gravity for the up trend heading to the 50% retracement at 167.3.

I see us testing the channel LTL where it intersects the Line of Continuation at 146.8. The 200SMA is also resting in the same area.

What's interesting on the monthly chart is that the red diagonal line of the move down intesects the LTL of the channel in the 167.3 area.

If we break the LTL and Line of Continuation established by the horn bottoms in July, then we could easily see 141.7. If we bounce off 147, then this channel might be an underlying trend that hasn't identified itself clearly yet.

On chart 3, July 23rd is the vertical centerline of a very nice potential mirrored formation.

If the 163.00 holds, than follow the yellow line to 100.00

IMHO

The vaunted “September effect” typically stipulates that stock markets typically fare worst through September, and a fall in risky assets would likely benefit the safe-haven US Dollar. In the past 10 years, the US S&P 500 has lost an average of approximately 30 points through September—by far its worst tally in any month of the year. Past performance is hardly a guarantee of future results, but it will nonetheless be important to watch for a turnaround in recently high-flying risky asset classes. The very fact that the S&P 500 has set fresh year-to-date highs through end of week trade underlines the risks of noteworthy pullback, and this may be one of the most important FX market themes in the week ahead. A busy week of European economic event risk likewise promises eventful price action through the coming days.

The combination of European and US employment figures could finally provide clear impetus for sustained Euro/US Dollar moves. German and EU officials report on regional unemployment on Tuesday the 1st of September—setting the tone for the subsequent month of fundamental data. Both are expected to show continued deterioration in unemployment rates and underline downside risks to economic growth. Subsequent Euro Zone Gross Domestic Product revisions are expected to show a modest downgrade to second quarter expansion numbers, but the true fireworks will likely come on the following day’s European Central Bank interest rate decision.

The ECB is very widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged—ostensibly leaving little risk for major volatility. Yet recent price action has taught us to expect the unexpected, and markets will be paying close attention to any shifts in rhetoric from the regional central bank. Officials will likewise release their new economic outlooks for the Euro Zone, and any surprises could likewise produce reactions in the Euro itself.

Last but most certainly not least, traders should keep a lookout for US Nonfarm Payroll results on Friday. Continued improvements in US employment numbers leave economists expecting a slowdown in job losses. Yet any surprises could easily cause substantial Euro/US dollar moves.

Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist

A lackluster week of British fundamental data made the Pound the worst performer among all G10 currencies through recent trade, and a technical break below multi-month trendline support leaves risks to the downside for the UK currency. Disappointments in GfK consumer confidence survey numbers and late-week international trade figures underlined risks to domestic consumption. A modestly positive revision to second quarter Gross Domestic Product figures failed to elicit a reaction from the UK currency, and it seems that markets had little interest in holding long-GBP exposure through illiquid trading conditions. The week ahead should bring far more liquidity into the FX market, and it will be critical to watch the next GBPUSD moves as traders return to their desks for the first week of September.

Seasonality in global financial markets add further downside risks for the GBP, as stock markets often experience their worst month of the year through September. Indeed, the much-talked-about “September Effect” looms large on FX markets; a strong GBPUSD correlation to the US S&P 500 strongly suggests that the British Pound would lose on S&P declines. Past trends hardly guarantee future results, but we cannot ignore fairly clear seasonal tendencies. Second-tier UK economic event risk may provide some surprises, but we expect that broader financial market risk sentiment will provide the strongest influence on the risk-correlated British Pound.

Traders should keep an eye out for noteworthy results in upcoming Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Manufacturing, Construction, and Services reports; the surveys are typically leading indicators for economic growth trends. All three surveys are expected to improve on the month of August. Lofty expectations certainly leave room for disappointment and, if anything, risks remain to the downside ahead of PMI data.

Finally, forex traders will keep a very close eye on end-of-week US Nonfarm Payrolls data. The infamous NFP’s report often sparks impressive, if unpredictable, moves in the US S&P 500 and US Dollar. Needless to say, any particularly sizeable surprises in the data could provide substantial GBPUSD volatility.

red line (ma) on chart rejecting uptrends.. 1st chart
visually looks to want to test lower levels.. 2nd chart

Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

While other majors’ economic calendars have been filled to the brim, there are comparatively few Japanese economic indicators due for release next week. However, that doesn’t mean the yen will be relegated to tight ranges. The light docket belies the heavy event risk that is looming for the single currency. This weekend, the nation will go to the polls to vote in the first general election since 2005. Such a political episode is always market moving; but the fundamental implications in this election run especially deep as the world’s second largest economy is struggles to recovery from its worst recession in history and opinion polls suggest a change in power (and therefore policy approach) may be in the cards. And, if this wasn’t enough for market participants to worry about, there is always the high correlation to market sentiment to worry about. Tight ranges and stalled rallies should concern rather than pacify the astute trader.

First and foremost on the table is the general election that is to take place on Sunday the 30th. All 480 seats of the House of Representatives are open to the ballot – and for those unfamiliar with the Japanese political system, the house designates the Prime Minister. Clearly, there is at lot at stake from the traders stand point in this event risk. Whomever has control over the government will set vital policies that will steer the economy’s recovery from its worst recession since WWII. The uncertainty surrounding the event alone is enough to shake what confidence is still inherent in the yen. Even before the recent financial and economic crisis, Japan was mired in what is popularly coined a ‘lost decade’ of feeble growth, deflation, high savings and weak domestic investment trends. This is a wily ship to helm. What makes it even more interesting is that early opinion polls suggest the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will be unseated for the first time in nearly half a century by the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). Admittedly, both their economic policy outlines are similar and spotty; but the desire to make an immediate impression and take control of the recession would likely see more immediate reaction should the DPJ win.

Beyond the immediate volatility following the market open after the election is decided, the outcome of this political shuffle will have a lasting impact on the Japanese economy and currency. Yet much of its influence will be subtle. In contrast, general risk appetite trends could cause severe waves for the yen over the coming week. Over the past few weeks, bullish sentiment has stalled. The S&P 500 has stalled below 9,635; crude has failed to surmount $75/barrel; and carry trade has tested the same 10-month high through all of August. Either these markets will have to push through or retrace; and with the progress of these speculative markets, we will see sentiment unfold. Supporting an ongoing bull wave, there is still immense amounts of side-lined capital that can find its way into the market. However, even if there is another leg of the now five month advance, it will likely be short-lived. Sentiment is waging a heavy premium over what fundamentals suggest the recovery can support and the lack of investment turn over can produce in returns.

Finally, we should not ignore the data on Japan’s economic docket. There are few readings on hand; but they are potent in furthering growth forecasts. Housing starts and vehicle sales will offer a look into the availability of consumer credit and the willingness to purchase big ticket items given current market conditions. Further up the economic stream, industrial production will measure orders (domestic and foreign) by translating what it will mean for local growth and employment. The 2Q capital spending will benchmark this same sector.


Fundamental is in control this weekend..

Trade your charts.

nice bro thanks for the analysis...well i am not that good in those partterns....
i yes very strong bearish divergence on daily and weekly...i am sure they will trrap some traders to continue buying or price manipulation before NFP release, Bank holiday on Monday so kinda not sure what to expect on GJ..
i still we can see some bull trap to 155.00-20..
what u think?

OK,so we're all agreed then, GY going down. I guess the smart money will take it higher then... lol.

I'm very wary of trading the obvious. Not saying I'm contrarian, because i'm not particularly, but if more downside looks so obvious, there's a great chance the big money will try to shake he bears out.

We have 2 scenarios IMO:

1. Europe returns from their holidays and kick starts a sell-off at the inflated prices.
2. Europe returns from their holidays and follows the summer index trends. (which have been up).

I know that sounds glib, but bear with me;

ES is not so far from it's recent highs and Dow has held up reasonably well despite any bad data this past 6 weeks. It will take a leap of faith for the big money to immediately short the indexes on Monday morning. Make no mistake, they are looking to sell, but will want to tread carefully before then.

I think we go up, maybe quite strongly, before any more down-side. I'm going to sit and watch mostly this week as I think the proper moves will happen next week.

As for NFP, this has been a bit of a smokescreen lately. I wouldn't trust any moves resulting from these numbers. Even if the data is good, the increased volume in the coming weeks will still dictate what actually happens, not some short term data release.

Have a great week everyone.