Yes point taken but wasn't news trading a fad (blown out of all proportion by the marketers) that had its bubble burst. [/font][/color]
(binned per thread starter's request) Behind Price-Orderflow
- #81
- Aug 28, 2009 5:20pm Aug 28, 2009 5:20pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,201 Posts
- #82
- Aug 28, 2009 5:55pm Aug 28, 2009 5:55pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Always trying... | 1,918 Posts
Good question! Tarot cards and an ouija board probably.
You won't get an answer though because it's top secret super-sensitive information which can never be revealed to the general public for fear of the universal devastation it would cause, in fact it's so secret that even the people who know it don't know that they know it!
How a simple 2-horse race can be made so ridiculously complicated I'll never know, let's try something really difficult like deciding which side of bed to get out of in the morning
At the end of the day, I want to be able to trade on a real world cause and effect that I am 80%+ sure will play out my way.... That Cannot (IMO) be done by pattern spotting.
By using a chart only you are following the past, trying to profit is like trying to drive your car to the sun or the donkey with the carrot/stick/string image.
You need to find outside input for your trading, you need a solid reason to beleive that someone out their comanding alot of money has a price in mind and an agenda.
Only the 1st para was directed to you pipmut, the rest is just general opinion-flow. Hope your well mate.
Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
- #83
- Aug 28, 2009 5:59pm Aug 28, 2009 5:59pm
- Joined Apr 2008 | Status: Parsimony Rulez! | 3,216 Posts
No - we are gonna graduate to "show me your statements!"
Your $/Cad trade, break below support around 1.0830 and it falls as traders sell and longs bail, yep. Where's the benefit of any potential order flow knowledge in that trade though? Don't get me wrong it was a useful little trade, very nice but no specialist knowledge or analysis required.
How about a long at 1.0800 for ~30 pips, then back long again at 1.0821 for ~50 pips, all in hindsight and I didn't take any of them but there are some obvious trades on that chart.
This is what gets me, simple no-brainer trades with very little risk just asking to be traded yet there's like a thousand pages on one convoluted strategy which at the end of the day probably doesn't have any better win:lose or risk:reward!
- #84
- Aug 28, 2009 6:02pm Aug 28, 2009 6:02pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Vivere! | 1,034 Posts
Hey great, I love this part
Your $/Cad trade, break below support around 1.0830 and it falls as traders sell and longs bail, yep. Where's the benefit of any potential order flow knowledge in that trade though? Don't get me wrong it was a useful little trade, very nice but no specialist knowledge or analysis required.
How about a long at 1.0800 for ~30 pips, then back long again at 1.0821 for ~50 pips, all in hindsight and I didn't take any of them but there are some obvious trades on that chart.
This is what gets me, simple...
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
- #85
- Aug 28, 2009 6:09pm Aug 28, 2009 6:09pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Conscious Incompetence | 3,274 Posts
This is like trying to solve a puzzle with a 1000 pieces all scattered across FF without a picture to go off of...
There was a post awhile back that has bothered me for a long time. Someone said, LITERALLY, price HAS to go to certain level. It has no choice. The roulette wheel that always lands on black sound like the same thing.
If you knew where price had to go eventually because it has no choice but to go there, then I guess trading would get really boring really fast. At least you'd be rich to do other stuff.
There was a post awhile back that has bothered me for a long time. Someone said, LITERALLY, price HAS to go to certain level. It has no choice. The roulette wheel that always lands on black sound like the same thing.
If you knew where price had to go eventually because it has no choice but to go there, then I guess trading would get really boring really fast. At least you'd be rich to do other stuff.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
- #86
- Aug 28, 2009 6:15pm Aug 28, 2009 6:15pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Vivere! | 1,034 Posts
This is like trying to solve a puzzle with a 1000 pieces all scattered across FF without a picture to go off of...
There was a post awhile back that has bothered me for a long time. Someone said, LITERALLY, price HAS to go to certain level. It has no choice. The roulette wheel that always lands on black sound like the same thing.
If you knew where price had to go eventually because it has no choice but to go there, then I guess trading would get really boring really fast. At least you'd be rich to do other stuff.
No secret knowledge. None.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
- #87
- Aug 28, 2009 6:16pm Aug 28, 2009 6:16pm
- Joined Apr 2008 | Status: Parsimony Rulez! | 3,216 Posts
Ive obviously not been blessed enough to be able to see the easy or simple part of learning how to trade profitably. Once you know how, the process of continuing to do the same thing may be easy, but I dont have the luxury of being able to say if it will or not(be easy) for certain.
At the end of the day, I want to be able to trade on a real world cause and effect that I am 80%+ sure will play out my way.... That Cannot (IMO) be done by pattern spotting.
By using a chart only you are following the past, trying to profit is...
Great thanks Leon, hope you are too
Ok my remark was probably a bit scathing, I guess it's the frustration of seeing so many people complicate what I honestly believe is essentially an easy process.
You're looking for a reason why price should go to x.xxxx ("need a solid reason to beleive that someone out their comanding alot of money has a price in mind and an agenda") which is the essence of this thread I suppose, it's certainly a more sensible approach than blindly trading a line or indicator which might not actually mean very much in reality. I'm still not sure how that could be done without the visual of participants behavior presented neatly on a chart though. I think you've also got to consider what the market-movers are looking at, do they watch chart levels for entries and exits such as breakouts, retracements, even moving averages, they all seem to be popular among some of the top analysts so I think they should be included in our analysis too.
- #88
- Aug 28, 2009 6:32pm Aug 28, 2009 6:32pm
- Joined Apr 2008 | Status: Parsimony Rulez! | 3,216 Posts
- #89
- Edited Aug 29, 2009 5:19am Aug 28, 2009 6:42pm | Edited Aug 29, 2009 5:19am
- Joined Apr 2008 | Status: Parsimony Rulez! | 3,216 Posts
Im getting closer and closer
......I like the writing style of sfkx....
it is like some puzzle.....you need to combine this thread with some other dark "bold" members.....
As with everything in life,it's what you DON'T see that makes the difference.It's not the graphics on your chart,it's the WHITE SPACE on your chart.
You need to understand the WHITE SPACE and what's in it.
Understand this and it's game over.
......I like the writing style of sfkx....it is like some puzzle.....you need to combine this thread with some other dark "bold" members.....
As with everything in life,it's what you DON'T see that makes the difference.It's not the graphics on your chart,it's the WHITE SPACE on your chart.
You need to understand the WHITE SPACE and what's in it.
Understand this and it's game over.
forexflash
- #92
- Aug 29, 2009 5:29am Aug 29, 2009 5:29am
Im getting closer and closer
it is like some puzzle.....you need to combine this thread with some other dark "bold" members.....
As with everything in life,it's what you DON'T see that makes the difference.It's not the graphics on your chart,it's the WHITE SPACE on your chart.
You need to understand the WHITE SPACE and what's in it.
Understand this and it's game over.
Fortunately I've learnt from being burnt not to have all my cards on the table at once, in other words I have only a single Limit order in play even thought I know there a numerous other trades available.
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
- #93
- Aug 29, 2009 5:35am Aug 29, 2009 5:35am
- Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Informed | 1,641 Posts
Im getting closer and closer
it is like some puzzle.....you need to combine this thread with some other dark "bold" members.....
As with everything in life,it's what you DON'T see that makes the difference.It's not the graphics on your chart,it's the WHITE SPACE on your chart.
You need to understand the WHITE SPACE and what's in it.
Understand this and it's game over.
One other thing that unites these guys is the notion of taking out peoples stops. I don't know if Gaston mentions this, but both darkstar and skfx obviously do. Also, Darkstar revels a little bit about how he trades that leads me to beleive he only trades setups where he can take stops out. I say this because in one of his posts he mentions that he only trades 3-5 times per month while risking 12.5%. Also, in many of his essays on microstructure, he plays the stop hunting example a lot. I cannot say at this point with clarity what events he is watching, but I'll figure it out soon enough.
The main question I am running into right now is the source these guys are using for their infomation about existing open orderflow. Again to pull from darkstar, in one of his posts he mentions IFR Forex, a service that publishes this kind of information, he even quotes peices of the info a couple times. The info is obviously out there, these guys are getting it somewhere. We'll find it.
I stated above that darkstar trades a few times a month. I was glad to find that information because it answers my question that I was asking skfx about reasonable returns. With this style of trading, there is more certainty of outcome, which allows one to risk more, but you trade less often. This is important for us all to understand at this point. I'd be surprised if these guys could open a chart (or whatever) and tell you 100% of the time where price is going. Don't get me wrong, I am not bashing the system, just calling it what it is.
One more thing. If you look the charts skfx posted, and the direction price goes in the areas he points out, what does it make you think of? Simple S/R right? Go through his examples and you'll see it. If you go through and look, you would have been going the right way if you were trading the S/R correctly. I used to be a fib maniac, still am in ways, but I threw them all in the trash after i commited myself to learning simple S/R trading. I've been making a consistant 5% weekely for some time now doing this.
I am working on some of my own essays about order types and what they do lately. I'll post them when they are done. Some great insights to come guys. We can crack this thing.
Have a fantastic weekend everyone,
Scotty B
- #94
- Aug 29, 2009 5:38am Aug 29, 2009 5:38am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Conscious Incompetence | 3,274 Posts
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
We can crack this thing.
There is nothing to crack. There is no 'hidden secret'. It's traders trading, businesses transferring, multinationals hedging etc etc. It's not space invaders, it's a function of international business and aproaching it with a view or perspective that there's a super secret cabal of super traders will ultimatley frustrate you as it doesn't exist.
If you're making a consistant 5% a week you're doing great, why overcomplicate it?
I respectfully disagree.
There is nothing to crack. There is no 'hidden secret'. It's traders trading, businesses transferring, multinationals hedging etc etc. It's not space invaders, it's a function of international business and aproaching it with a view or perspective that there's a super secret cabal of super traders will ultimatley frustrate you as it doesn't exist.
If you're making a consistant 5% a week you're doing great, why overcomplicate it?
- #99
- Aug 29, 2009 6:23am Aug 29, 2009 6:23am
- Joined Apr 2008 | Status: Parsimony Rulez! | 3,216 Posts
I respectfully disagree.
There is nothing to crack. There is no 'hidden secret'. It's traders trading, businesses transferring, multinationals hedging etc etc. It's not space invaders, it's a function of international business and aproaching it with a view or perspective that there's a super secret cabal of super traders will ultimatley frustrate you as it doesn't exist.
I agree that there's no hidden or deep dark secret (as far as I know!) but there are aspects of trading which joe average trader seems to be oblivious to such as where orders are likely to be placed, and why. A lot of traders seem to analyse the market based on indicators, s/r levels, retracements etc etc without actually thinking what's behind the analysis. In my opinion that leaves out a big chunk of information and is a major disadvantage.
As well as the participants you mentioned there are what I'd call 'strategic players' who are well aware of market participants herd behaviour and they will manipulate the market for their own benefit (ie stop-running, candle painting etc) at the expense of the majority. Sometimes their plays which exploit the herd can be obvious even to traders like us who have limited information, and if we can see them coming we can maybe ride in the slipstream.
What's the saying, "if you don't know who the patsy is then it's probably you" (I don't mean 'you' as in you by the way!
)