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  • #3,121
  • Aug 28, 2009 8:26pm Aug 28, 2009 8:26pm
Quoting D-ramon
TRY THIS ONE
Thank you, that seems to do the trick.
  • #3,122
  • Aug 29, 2009 3:56am Aug 29, 2009 3:56am
Here's some stuff I saw on Friday. Apologies for the crudeness of my charts, I'm using microsoft paint to annotate.

First off, the white horizontal lines on my chart are previous point of controls (poc) from marketprofile. The horizontal yellow lines going all the way across the screen are s/r drawn off the daily chart. The smaller yellow horizontal line is minor s/r where price reacted on Friday.

So now we have the context set, some analysis.

Circled area 1, is a high volume up bar, closing off the highs, into previous resistance. Next bar shows no follow through on buying.

Circled area 2, shows us a low volume up bar into prior resistance. The bar before this had much higher volume, so this bar with decreasing volume should be viewed with suspicion. Our suspicious are confirmed on the next bar, where we see a down bar. Several things going on here, two bar up thrust, bearish engulfing, and circled area 1+2 forms a double top. So there's multiple reasons to short here.

Circled area 3, shows us a high volume down bar into prior support, and the next bar is an up bar, which confirms to us we had hidden buying.

At this point we see price moving up, so we should be looking at where we think price might go. The nearest resistance, is the low of the double top formation. This was previous support now turned resistance, and here we got a nice little upthrust, and you could have taken a short here.

Some of these entries are aggressive, but given we are trading against s/r, our stops can be fairly tight, so we can afford to be aggressive while retaining good MM, and having high proability setups.
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  • #3,123
  • Edited 6:34am Aug 29, 2009 4:05am | Edited 6:34am
Here's a trade I took on EJ.

First the background. Notice the dotted yellow line, this area marks to the far left, an area where we had previous supply. The first circled candle indicates where we pushed through this previous supply.

Given this context, when price started approaching 134.40 area, my plan was to get a long entry as close to 134.40 as possible. I was banking on 134.40 holding, given that we'd only just recently pushed through it. Prior resistance has now turned into support.

Along the way, we had a few tests just before price was marked up.

I actually managed to get in at 134.51, SL at 134.35. I could get away with such a tight stop as if 134.40 breaks, it invalidates the entire setup anyway, so I ought to close and wait for a new setup at the next s/r level.

EDIT: I didn't make clear where I entered. We had an upthrust, which is a sign of weakness, however, we immediately tested for supply right after that sign of weakness. This is where I went long.
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  • #3,124
  • Aug 29, 2009 5:15am Aug 29, 2009 5:15am
Quoting daffy
Here's a trade I took on EJ.

First the background....

the long was high risk IMHO .....

the price was showing weakness entire move thru asia and euro session

you were lucky on the upthrust before drop

I stalked this for drop in us session as weakness was simple to see .. had same pattern gj
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  • #3,125
  • Edited Aug 30, 2009 1:10am Aug 29, 2009 6:30am | Edited Aug 30, 2009 1:10am
Quoting malcolmb14
the long was high risk IMHO .....

the price was showing weakness entire move thru asia and euro session

you were lucky on the upthrust before drop

I stalked this for drop in us session as weakness was simple to see .. had same pattern gj
Attachment
Different trading styles

I was banking on the push through supply (the first circled candle) to hold for a move a bit further north. My actual entry, (and I apologise for not making it clear in my initial post), was after the upthrust. We saw weakness, but that weakness was immediately tested, which indicates strength. I would not have considered a short until we got closer to 135.00.
  • #3,126
  • Aug 29, 2009 12:37pm Aug 29, 2009 12:37pm
Hi All,

Great thread with very heplfull chart examples, could you please look at attached chart and confirm if this would be stopping volume.

Thanks.

Gez.
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Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #3,127
  • Aug 29, 2009 9:34pm Aug 29, 2009 9:34pm
Quoting gez40
Hi All,

Great thread with very heplfull chart examples, could you please look at attached chart and confirm if this would be stopping volume.

Thanks.

Gez.

Yes absolutely that is stopping volume.

We have a narrow ( narrower than the previous candle) on increasing and ultra high volume closing making a lower low and closing up and near its high.

While the dark expansion body closes on its low, the next candle being up (the candle in question) shows that there was some demand entering on all that volume.

Demand swamps supply in the next candle creating stopping volume.

Now check out the very next candle. It makes a lower low, closes down but in the upper portion of its range and on volume less than the previous two candles. Volume is still high and the range is a bit high for a test, but this is a bullish candle.

Looking at the two previous candles together, we can see as the third candle trades down into the same areas, there are a lot less selling(supply).

But I digress. Yes, the candle in question is most certainly stopping volume.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #3,128
  • Aug 29, 2009 9:52pm Aug 29, 2009 9:52pm
Quoting malcolmb14
the long was high risk IMHO .....

the price was showing weakness entire move thru asia and euro session

you were lucky on the upthrust before drop

I stalked this for drop in us session as weakness was simple to see .. had same pattern gj
Attachment

Quoting daffy
Here's a trade I took on EJ.

First the background. Notice the dotted yellow line, this area marks to the far left, an area where we had previous supply. The first circled candle indicates where we pushed through this previous supply.

Given this context, when price started approaching 134.40 area, my plan was to get a long entry as close to 134.40 as possible. I was banking on 134.40 holding, given that we'd only just recently pushed through it. Prior resistance has now turned into support.

Along the way, we had a few tests just before price...
I think you are both right. The first high volume candle pointed out by malcolmb shows some supply entering. However the market responds by moving sideways. This shows residual demand (strength) in the market.

The same can be said for the candle Daffy notes as pushihg thru supply. While some selling is hidden in the candle, it was not enough to swamp demand and prices moved sideways not down.

The place to take your long, however should have been prior to the Upthrust on a down candle with volume less than the previous two candles. A test or no supply bar. Looking at the chart, I think there is such a candle near the yellow line.

After the upthrust, things are quite a bit more risky.

But you planned your trade and traded your plan. Something we should all be diciplined enough to do.....
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #3,129
  • Aug 29, 2009 10:40pm Aug 29, 2009 10:40pm
D-ramon;

You can send my share of the profits via paypal to......

Just kidding.

I would like to echo your sentiment. There are a lot great posters here. Thanks for all of their insights.

It's true what they say, "When you 'teach', you learn twice". My posts are as much for me as they are for everyone else. But I am truly happy that others can get something out of them.

p.s. Will you still love us if things go bad next week?
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #3,130
  • Aug 30, 2009 1:54am Aug 30, 2009 1:54am
Dear Sir.,

thank You for Your time to comment and kind words.

Yes it helps as all Your such posts.

I am sure Your posts helps to a lot of people here.


Best,
Tom



Quoting HiddenGap
First a couple of thoughts:

1. You are going to be a very good trader. I like how you have taken responsibility for your trades and are not blaming VSA. Many newbies would be cursing VSA and off again on the search for the non-existent holy grail. I truly believe you will be one of the ones who make it.

2. It is no secret that I am a believer in the power of the Supply/Demand Delta Zone. More exactly, in Expansion body and Long Shadow analysis. There are, however, other was to create support/resistance lines, areas, or zones. One of the main...
  • #3,131
  • Aug 30, 2009 4:11am Aug 30, 2009 4:11am
a good video to watch

the bottom indicator is called volume break down indicator...


http://www.viddler.com/explore/marketdelta/videos/7/
  • #3,132
  • Aug 30, 2009 5:00am Aug 30, 2009 5:00am
Just another indicator...

B,
Tom
  • #3,133
  • Aug 30, 2009 5:03am Aug 30, 2009 5:03am
Quoting HiddenGap
Yes absolutely that is stopping volume.

We have a narrow ( narrower than the previous candle) on increasing and ultra high volume closing making a lower low and closing up and near its high.

While the dark expansion body closes on its low, the next candle being up (the candle in question) shows that there was some demand entering on all that volume.

Demand swamps supply in the next candle creating stopping volume.

Now check out the very next candle. It makes a lower low, closes down but in the upper portion of its range and on volume less...

Thanks for your time.

Gez.
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #3,134
  • Aug 30, 2009 8:30am Aug 30, 2009 8:30am
Hi guys I post this chart in the Ichimoku thread too I hope that's ok.

Here is a good VSA example from last week. We see price spike+gap up with greater than average volume followed by ranging on low volume, an exhaustion move and then a drop down on increasing volume when PA realise no buyers at this level.

Comments?
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  • #3,135
  • Aug 30, 2009 11:10am Aug 30, 2009 11:10am
Quoting HiddenGap
I think you are both right. The first high volume candle pointed out by malcolmb shows some supply entering. However the market responds by moving sideways. This shows residual demand (strength) in the market.

The same can be said for the candle Daffy notes as pushihg thru supply. While some selling is hidden in the candle, it was not enough to swamp demand and prices moved sideways not down.

The place to take your long, however should have been prior to the Upthrust on a down candle with volume less than the previous two candles. A test or...
the up move knocking sideways and the reaction to all 5 min up bars thru asia was very weak ..we have to remember vsa is all about background ....

40 pips versus 150 pip .... who was right ans who was wrong ? reaction to action . The weakness on this one was simple to see . I played gj off 153.50
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #3,136
  • Aug 30, 2009 11:21am Aug 30, 2009 11:21am
Quoting daffy
Different trading styles

I was banking on the push through supply (the first circled candle) to hold for a move a bit further north. My actual entry, (and I apologise for not making it clear in my initial post), was after the upthrust. We saw weakness, but that weakness was immediately tested, which indicates strength. I would not have considered a short until we got closer to 135.00.
been using this vsa stuff for a while now . Introduced shamus to it

Just humour me here .. yes you were lucky .... but what you did actually was against what vsa is about

correct me if i am wrong .... you went long after the high volume upthrust noted on charts, in fact the highest volume in 12 hours and a test of the same resis level seen in Tokyo session that was an UT , so the wekaness is there

after this we had a little dip down to support 134.40 , where you went long at 134.50 , max you could have got was 30 pip with 2 x areas of weakness above . YOU SEEMED TO HAVE COMPLETELY IGNORED THE BACKGROUND

This worked for you in this instance you were lucky. I bet you did not get the down move as your mind set was bullish and you thought 134.40 was testing

following this trade for a lttle while longer and seeing the weakness in asia thru euro session was simple . You could have even leveraged the account abut higher on this trade.

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  • #3,137
  • Edited 12:13pm Aug 30, 2009 11:39am | Edited 12:13pm
Quoting malcolmb14
been using this vsa stuff for a while now . Introduced shamus to it

Just humour me here .. yes you were lucky .... but what you did actually was against what vsa is about

correct me if i am wrong .... you went long after the high volume upthrust noted on charts, in fact the highest volume in 12 hours and a test of the same resis level seen in Tokyo session that was an UT , so the wekaness is there

after this we had a little dip down to support 134.40 , where you went long at 134.50 , max you could have got was 30 pip with 2 x areas of weakness...
Mal, I'm not trying to question your credentials, I've been following your posts and analysis for a good few months now, and I learn something from nearly every chart you post. If not for you, I, and many others that post here would never have heard of VSA and we'd still be poking around in the dark.

I get what you are saying, that throughout the night, we had signs of weakness, and thus we should be alert for a short move, and any long position we take is only going to yield a small pip count. I'll concede I did not analyse the chart as far back as you did, I only saw the push through supply, and then the tests following the upthrust. If those tests failed, I would not have taken the long. And you're right again on my pip gain, I did only get 30 but that's all I was looking for. I had a resistance line drawn off the daily at 134.85, and the utl of a downward channel at about 135.00, thus I felt we would get closer to that level before we would go down.

Thanks for pointing out the weakness in my analysis, Mal. I post what I see so that others can critique my analysis and point out the weaknesses in the conclustions I may have reached. I do this so that I can become a better trader.
  • #3,138
  • Aug 30, 2009 12:07pm Aug 30, 2009 12:07pm
Quoting daffy
You're spot on there, mal....

something I noticed is that very often thru the asian session there is either accumulation or distribution . If you see a sideways market in asia ., much like we did after the inital news spike then look for signs of dsitribution. Just something i have noticed

so if up move early asia then sidewways look for weakness
down move early asia then sideways look for strength
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #3,139
  • Aug 30, 2009 12:17pm Aug 30, 2009 12:17pm
Quoting malcolmb14
something I noticed is that very often thru the asian session there is either accumulation or distribution . If you see a sideways market in asia ., much like we did after the inital news spike then look for signs of dsitribution. Just something i have noticed

so if up move early asia then sidewways look for weakness
down move early asia then sideways look for strength
Thanks for the tip, I'll keep an eye out for it.
  • #3,140
  • Edited 7:58pm Aug 30, 2009 2:21pm | Edited 7:58pm
Hope everyone is having a great weekend!

As long as everyone is posting charts, I thought I would post this one and see if my analysis is correct...

Thanks for the GREAT charts everyone, enjoy !!


Chief
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