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  • #61
  • Aug 28, 2009 10:23am Aug 28, 2009 10:23am
Quoting pipmutt
It's simple, don't believe a word he says if you don't want to.
You could have stopped there as that too is a completely fair assessment.

Quote
Sheeesh, what's next, "post your live trades", geez

As above.
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #62
  • Aug 28, 2009 10:24am Aug 28, 2009 10:24am
Quoting skfx

Scotty,you don't need the charts believe me.
Ok, now I'm confused.

Not being funny but I don't see how you can do it without charts. We don't have access to factual order flow information for an OTC like forex, price action is helpful but not stand-alone, volume we don't know (accurately enough), the only way I can think of is to identify levels where orders are likely to be (similar to the ideas in the charts you posted), and predict when/where the herd will enter/exit and more importantly in this context when they will bail.

This is freely available information on any chart, if we as insignificant retail traders know it then you can be sure players know it and they will exploit it when it suits them, for the momentum if nothing else, and what better ally to have than market movers! Soros had the Bundesbank behind him when he performed his coup in '92, a slightly different scale I know but we've got an ally too.

Steve, if know of a way to do this without charts then you must be further out of that box than I am
  • #63
  • Aug 28, 2009 10:33am Aug 28, 2009 10:33am
Quoting Bleek
You could have stopped there as that too is a completely fair assessment.
I could, but I like a rant just as much as the next guy, and besides it's Friday and we've got another stupid bank holiday on Monday!
  • #64
  • Aug 28, 2009 10:35am Aug 28, 2009 10:35am
Porkpie: "To think this will change the dynamics of the market is ridiculous."
Famous last words of the slew of news traders in Oanda a few years back Porkpie. Retailers acting in concert can and do affect the market you're trading in.

I didn't PM the OP, but I can see why some people might depending on where he goes with it.
  • #65
  • Aug 28, 2009 10:38am Aug 28, 2009 10:38am
Quoting pipmutt
I could, but I like a rant just as much as the next guy, and besides it's Friday and we've got another stupid bank holiday on Monday!
Haha very true!
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #66
  • Aug 28, 2009 11:37am Aug 28, 2009 11:37am
Quoting triphop
Porkpie: "To think this will change the dynamics of the market is ridiculous."
Famous last words of the slew of news traders in Oanda a few years back Porkpie. Retailers acting in concert can and do affect the market you're trading in.

I didn't PM the OP, but I can see why some people might depending on where he goes with it.
When I first looked at the title of the thread and had a quick read, my initial reaction was..... 'Oh shit, what are you doing crack pot'. But on closer reading, it seems the OP is talking about mainly using chart info, which is basically doing what most threads here are already about.

You cannot (IMO) have any idea about large money motive's by chart-sniffing and new's trading, and News trading is a 1-2 pip game, atleast that is what my current level of knowledge leads me to beleive.

And yes, I also still beleive It is wrong judgement at best to shair an edge.

Hope your good trip.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #67
  • Aug 28, 2009 12:12pm Aug 28, 2009 12:12pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
You cannot (IMO) have any idea about large money motive's by chart-sniffing and new's trading, and News trading is a 1-2 pip game, atleast that is what my current level of knowledge leads me to beleive.
How else would a retail trader go about it?
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #68
  • Edited Aug 29, 2009 2:59am Aug 28, 2009 12:59pm | Edited Aug 29, 2009 2:59am
Yes point taken but wasn't news trading a fad (blown out of all proportion by the marketers) that had its bubble burst. Only certain traders would trade the news but most of the banks and technical traders stayed out leaving just the Hedge funds and macro traders either already positioned or on the sidelines waiting until after the news hit. This left the market with very little liquidity and thus spreads widened greatly forcing many of the retail brokers to do the same thus forcing many of the retail traders to quit with their news strategy.

So, good enough reason not to share an edge because the more people that use it the less profits there will be and the more likelihood brokers will start increasing spreads around certain areas preventing traders from using the strategy. This will increase the potential for more people to be profitable in there trading in theory. Those no longer using the 'edge' will no longer be taking away other's trading accounts in the long term.


Quoting triphop
Porkpie: "To think this will change the dynamics of the market is ridiculous."
Famous last words of the slew of news traders in Oanda a few years back Porkpie. Retailers acting in concert can and do affect the market you're trading in.

I didn't PM the OP, but I can see why some people might depending on where he goes with it.
  • #69
  • Aug 28, 2009 12:59pm Aug 28, 2009 12:59pm
I have just one thing to say.
  • #70
  • Aug 28, 2009 1:49pm Aug 28, 2009 1:49pm
Quoting Bleek
How else would a retail trader go about it?
Good question! Tarot cards and an ouija board probably.

You won't get an answer though because it's top secret super-sensitive information which can never be revealed to the general public for fear of the universal devastation it would cause, in fact it's so secret that even the people who know it don't know that they know it!


How a simple 2-horse race can be made so ridiculously complicated I'll never know, let's try something really difficult like deciding which side of bed to get out of in the morning
  • #71
  • Aug 28, 2009 2:10pm Aug 28, 2009 2:10pm
Quoting pipmutt
You won't get an answer though because it's top secret super-sensitive information which can never be revealed to the general public for fear of the universal devastation it would cause, in fact it's so secret that even the people who know it don't know that they know it!
.....


  • #72
  • Aug 28, 2009 2:13pm Aug 28, 2009 2:13pm
Quoting pipmutt
Good question! Tarot cards and an ouija board probably.

You won't get an answer though because it's top secret super-sensitive information which can never be revealed to the general public for fear of the universal devastation it would cause, in fact it's so secret that even the people who know it don't know that they know it!


How a simple 2-horse race can be made so ridiculously complicated I'll never know, let's try something really difficult like deciding which side of bed to get out of in the morning
Lol, quote of the day.

Have a good weekend Pip.
  • #73
  • Aug 28, 2009 2:17pm Aug 28, 2009 2:17pm
Knowledge is certainly empowering, but it would seem the unfortunate side effect is to ridicule others.
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #74
  • Aug 28, 2009 2:22pm Aug 28, 2009 2:22pm
Quoting Bleek
Knowledge is certainly empowering, but it would seem the unfortunate side effect is to ridicule others.
The more knowledge I possess the more bleek it becomes.
  • #75
  • Aug 28, 2009 2:24pm Aug 28, 2009 2:24pm
Quoting mrjtdude
The more knowledge I possess the more bleek it becomes.
The knowledge becomes a pseudonym? Interesting.

Is that supposed to be some kind of snipe or sarcasm towards me?

Not so enlightening.
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #76
  • Aug 28, 2009 2:49pm Aug 28, 2009 2:49pm
Quoting AstonDan
Lol, quote of the day.

Have a good weekend Pip.
You too, it's a long one so I guess they'll be some diy or gardening involved somewhere!

The question is should I use a roller or a brush.....
  • #77
  • Edited 3:39pm Aug 28, 2009 3:26pm | Edited 3:39pm
Quoting pipmutt
You too, it's a long one so I guess they'll be some diy or gardening involved somewhere!

The question is should I use a roller or a brush.....
But is the paint really there either way?!

Remember, there is no spoon (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXKFTzlBziI)

F1 from Spa this weekend plus Storage Pro pushed some good reading my way up above, not enough lager in the fridge though...
  • #78
  • Aug 28, 2009 3:53pm Aug 28, 2009 3:53pm
Quoting pipmutt
It's simple, don't believe a word he says if you don't want to.


Sheeesh, what's next, "post your live trades", geez
No - we are gonna graduate to "show me your statements!"

LOL

Pip - you are an abrasive MF'r sometimes - I like that!

Seriously - Order Flow is what makes things go - and WHY orders ome in and what kind is pretty important stuff.

Going chartless - I have not figured that out yet.

Speaking of charts - I had a little fun with order flow and S/R levels on the USDCAD and bank some wine money.

See the yellow line - that is an approximation of a Resistance line. These are not sharp lines, but are areas. Orders tend to pile up in a ~ten pip range either side of these. See the White dashed line? It is ten pips from the yellow line. My sense of things was that if price hit that line, we'd see a drop to the round number 1.0800. If it hit that line and reversed ~5 pips, order flow was not there and I would exit.

It hit that line and went right down perfectly to the round number.

Why?

I surmise, because I do not *know* from viewing an order book, we hit some conditional orders - stops and limits (genius)...

Likely some weak buy limits and some stop losses. It had no great punch to it - if it had, it would have rocketed down, and I might be too looped to type this... ;-). It happens. On occasion you'll catch a ride and big enormous R on a breakout or a bounce. And it can happen in minutes.

The round number is a place where order tend to pile up. This round number is not a biggie, so it merely gently bounced up.

Now scale back and look at an hourly and 4 hour chart. The Support is pretty strong. Thinking you'd get more out of this is dangerous thinking and you'd never allow a win turn into a loss here.

Daily chart shows us in the area of a daily Price flip. What was resistance, now turns into strong support.

Later on - the price rocketed up on the merits of 2 Pin Bars. Trading this pair today on multiple time frames was easy if you paid attention to these areas.

Cheers peeps.

Again - look for JOELCF's stuff in the J16 forum. He explains a few things very well.

Again - DEMO only.

And - finding these areas that are *well defined* first are key. Have some fun.
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I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #79
  • Aug 28, 2009 4:19pm Aug 28, 2009 4:19pm
  •  Porky
  • | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: ...as in Porcupine, not the pig. | 34 Posts
Okay skfx, I am trying, I really am.

After 2 years of trading I am just about to throw in the towel (for the 15th time). If you can help me just a little more...

I can see on how the price sits in one area for a while and then jumps to another. I am seeing what your notes show on your charts (first post). But it is easy for me to see it after the fact. The second chart shows a false break at the s/r line and then price dives down. BUT how can you know if it is a false break or if price is taking off until it is already too late?
  • #80
  • Aug 28, 2009 5:10pm Aug 28, 2009 5:10pm
Quoting Porky
Okay skfx, I am trying, I really am.

After 2 years of trading I am just about to throw in the towel (for the 15th time). If you can help me just a little more...

I can see on how the price sits in one area for a while and then jumps to another. I am seeing what your notes show on your charts (first post). But it is easy for me to see it after the fact. The second chart shows a false break at the s/r line and then price dives down. BUT how can you know if it is a false break or if price is taking off until it is already too late?
Now is not the time to quit. Go to demo mode.

AND

GO to the first 100 pages of the James16 thread.

They discuss PA which is a perfect reflection of what order flow is doing.

There are no secrets.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
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