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4H Box Breakout

  • #2,741
  • Aug 28, 2009 1:41am Aug 28, 2009 1:41am
actually, ,when I am calculating FXDD box I always add few more pips. if box is say 150 pips I make it 155. My stop loss was actually triggered by 1-2 pips at BE when I was short. Sly Oanda!
  • #2,742
  • Aug 28, 2009 2:37am Aug 28, 2009 2:37am
Sounds great,
i'm gonna try Danno's variation on monday, i don't remember if it was he that did the changes or if it was someone else, so don't hate me.. aight?

Regarding the 200 pip+ candles, it doesn't seem to happen very often, last time was in december 2008 accoring to Danno's excel file.
There were a few in 2008 and 2007 so i'm guessing it could be hard to back test with accuracy since there are so few.
Of course if it's 1 loss for 2 wins over the years, this would definatly be a GOOD TRADE!

Best wishes
Jesper

ps. sad to see Pharaoh go like that, should be a reminder to the rest of us, that commercial indicators or commercial whatever is not allowed at Forexfactory.
  • #2,743
  • Aug 28, 2009 3:07am Aug 28, 2009 3:07am
Quoting droland
Gotta love your thinking. I remember earlier that you had been away somewhere with burros or something.

Where are you and why do I like you so much?

dr
You have a good memory . . . that burro episode was about 3 zillion posts ago on this thread. That's the thing, though . . . once you get a reputation for hanging with the burros, no one ever lets you forget it.

In regard to why you like me so much, that's something that you and your therapists need to keep working on. Don't give up . . . you can be cured.

*1 out of 2 burros surveyed found this post amusing.
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Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,744
  • Aug 28, 2009 3:08am Aug 28, 2009 3:08am
after all ideas n suggestion,what is the current system?
  • #2,745
  • Aug 28, 2009 3:12am Aug 28, 2009 3:12am
Quoting Freako
after all ideas n suggestion,what is the current system?
99% of the original system is still valid. The only change I can remember Ace making is going to BE when TP1 is reached, which has now been added to the first post on this thread.

Other than that, it's up to you to sift through the suggested modifications and give them a try if you choose to. If you choose not to, it's still a great system.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,746
  • Aug 28, 2009 3:23am Aug 28, 2009 3:23am
Quoting Ace284
I've seen breakout strategies for daily and weekly. I've never seen one like the one i'm about to present.
...
DRAW a box connecting the high of the first 4hr candle(00:00) of the week with the low along with a buffer of 20 pips on each side.
...
Box Forming Times:
GMT- 21:00 to 01:00
EDT - 17:00 to 21:00
FXDD time - 00:00 to 04:00
...
Rules:
- Add a buffer of 10-20 pips on each end of candle
- Buy on upper break of weekly box (including buffer+spread)
- Sell on lower break of weekly box (including buffer)
...
SL - other side of Box
TP1...
Thanks heaps Ace for sharing this great idea with the FF community and for managing your thread with such skill.
I have finally read through the lot, well worth the effort.
I have an early ea of Sir Ronalds running, time to update it with his latest version & also his interpretation of droland's variation. Thanks Ronald & Dave.
I will have a look at jasonphd's ea as well, cause learning to program is on my to-do list. Still cut & pasting bits from Sir Rons ea's until I bust my versions & ditch them to start again.
Thanks Jason for posting your ea's as well. I appreciate the effort required to get the head working right to produce ea's.
Will be doing a back test of all three to see if I can come up with any new ideas for this system. I suspect that will be hard, as it looks pretty good as it is. Got to get my back testing quality level back up to the 90% I had (yea I did, really - but only once - lol.)

Good pips to all FF bods
cheers scalpz
Target 2 : Stoploss in the green
  • #2,747
  • Aug 28, 2009 5:33am Aug 28, 2009 5:33am
I need no more back testing. The system is very good, but success 90% depends upon trader who trades the strategy.
Turtles strategy was also with positive edge, however not all turtles followed rules and not all of them succeeded.
  • #2,748
  • Aug 28, 2009 7:43am Aug 28, 2009 7:43am
hi guys
want to share this idea which is putting the EMA 200 on the chart
if the 1st 4H candle closed under the EMA 200 so we put only sell order and vise versa
i did a back test to September 2008 with applying this idea and the results was good (GBP/JPY)

but didnt decide how to put the stop loss

i need to know your opinion it's a bad or good idea .

Note: if someone shared the same idea be sure that i didn't read it !

Thanks >>>
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  • #2,749
  • Aug 28, 2009 8:00am Aug 28, 2009 8:00am
I everyone off my hols so and looking for some good trading books to read while i am away.

Any suggestions

Regards

ST
" Dont wait for your boat to come in ..... swim out and meet it"
  • #2,750
  • Aug 28, 2009 8:06am Aug 28, 2009 8:06am
Quoting speedtrip
I everyone off my hols so and looking for some good trading books to read while i am away.

Any suggestions

Regards

ST


Trading in the Zone, Van Tharpe.
  • #2,751
  • Aug 28, 2009 8:23am Aug 28, 2009 8:23am
Quoting speedtrip
I everyone off my hols so and looking for some good trading books to read while i am away.

Any suggestions

Regards

ST
2 books by Jason Janovsky. PM me for ebook copy.

Art of the Trade
Trading Rules that Work
  • #2,752
  • Aug 28, 2009 8:27am Aug 28, 2009 8:27am
Quoting speedtrip
I everyone off my hols so and looking for some good trading books to read while i am away.

Any suggestions

Regards

ST

You can PM me too. I have ebook copy of Trading in the Zone and site address where you can download Van Tharpe.
  • #2,753
  • Aug 28, 2009 9:11am Aug 28, 2009 9:11am
Quoting basomakm
hi guys
want to share this idea which is putting the EMA 200 on the chart
if the 1st 4H candle closed under the EMA 200 so we put only sell order and vise versa
i did a back test to September 2008 with applying this idea and the results was good (GBP/JPY)

but didnt decide how to put the stop loss

i need to know your opinion it's a bad or good idea .

Note: if someone shared the same idea be sure that i didn't read it !

Thanks >>>
Baso are you using 200 exponential shift 0 applied to close?
  • #2,754
  • Aug 28, 2009 9:16am Aug 28, 2009 9:16am
Quoting shiko
Turtles strategy was also with positive edge, however not all turtles followed rules and not all of them succeeded.
I know exactly what you mean, Shiko. In this example, the turtles were instructed to line up single-file, but did they follow the rules? No way.

Sorry about that . . . I've been done trading since Tuesday and I needed something to keep the mind occupied.
Attached Image
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,755
  • Aug 28, 2009 9:20am Aug 28, 2009 9:20am
Quoting nubchai
Baso are you using 200 exponential shift 0 applied to close?
Thanks for your interest
yes exactly thats the right settings .
  • #2,756
  • Aug 28, 2009 10:08am Aug 28, 2009 10:08am
Hi everyone!

There are quite a few spreadsheets already posted on this thread, with very helpful results. Yes, I have a few more, which may be of further assistance. All of the box highs/lows have been entered going back to 1/1/04, so you will just have to enter the risk level and exit data to see the results for each trade. I will be posting the spreadsheets in the near future.

In the meantime, a picture is worth a thousand words. I am going to first post the spreadsheet equity line charts, with results for each year, with the following parameters:


1) 4x TP, according to ACE's indicator
2) Move SL to BE at TP1
3) Keep both trades open regardless of ATR
4) Take every trade
5) Close trade at the last 4 hr candle of the week, if not already TP'd or SL'd.

I tested GBP/JPY only. A number of different variations of the system would have worked from '07 through '09. As we know, the years prior to '07 were more difficult.
Below are the year-end account balances, using 3% risk for short, 3% risk for long:

04: -2.94%
05: 4.78%
06: 9.49%
07: 54.15%
08: 108.73%
09: 108.45%

The overall result, compounded, was 646%. The maximum drawdown for this time period was 28.4%, using 3% risk. The drawdown increases quickly when this risk is increased.

From '07 forward, given the above parameters, the system has been hugely positive. Some of this time period benefited from the market meltdown starting in '08. It would have required the patience of a saint to trade it, during some of the periods prior to 07. I highly suggest that anyone interested in trading this system start from at least 1/1/04, trade by trade, to see how the market has behaved in the past. Or, as Danno has admirably done, go even further. This may have already been mentioned in the thread, but anyone who gets anxious when the market doesn't cooperate with this system, check out 9/18/06 through 11/24/06.

As is always the case, the backtesting is severely optimized, assuming that every trade is taken, all rules followed exactly, with trades closed at exactly the close of the final 4 hr candle. Certainly, the yearly profit in 2005 and 2006 could have easily been a loss, and the loss in 04 could have been worse, if certain trades had not been taken. Given that it was a manual backtest with lots of numbers, there is always a margin of error as well. Also, as we all know, there are different money mgt methods of compounding, which will yield different results.

Charts and spreadsheets are coming in posts to follow.

Thanks to Ace and all who have contributed to this thread.

Tom
  • #2,757
  • Aug 28, 2009 11:34am Aug 28, 2009 11:34am
Attached is the equity line chart for 2004, assuming the parameters mentioned in my previous post, ie:

1) 4x TP, according to ACE's indicator
2) Move SL to BE at TP1
3) Keep both trades open regardless of ATR
4) Take every trade
5) Close trade at the last 4 hr candle of the week, if not already TP'd or SL'd.

Of note in 2004 are numerous violent whipsaws that stopped out both sides very quickly. There are also a number of instances where there were large runs which occurred after both sides were stopped out. This begs the question as to whether multiple entries could have made the year more profitable.

Tom
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  • #2,758
  • Aug 28, 2009 11:37am Aug 28, 2009 11:37am
Quoting basomakm
Thanks for your interest
yes exactly thats the right settings .
Thanks Baso. It does seem that some weeks it's a good indicator for the primary trend. There was a trader who who used to try to determine the trend and only trade in that direction.

Sandy
  • #2,759
  • Aug 28, 2009 11:44am Aug 28, 2009 11:44am
Quoting speedtrip
I everyone off my hols so and looking for some good trading books to read while i am away.

Any suggestions

Regards

ST
"Trade your way to finacial freedom" Dr. Van Tharp
This book is about to help you find YOUR "holy grail" in trading.
He says it's different for every trader and has nothing to do with Systems.
It's a good book, but i'm guessing it's more for new aspiring traders.
But if you haven't read it, i'd read it.. it's a Van Tharp right?

I haven't read the other Van Tharp that was mentioned here above, thanks for the tip, will order it right away.
  • #2,760
  • Aug 28, 2009 11:48am Aug 28, 2009 11:48am
Attached is the equity chart for 2005, assuming the parameters mentioned in my previous post, ie:

1) 4x TP, according to Ace's indicator
2) Move SL to BE at TP1
3) Keep both trades open regardless of ATR
4) Take every trade
5) Close trade at the last 4 hr candle of the week, if not already TP'd or SL'd.

Choppy for most of the year, but the account still ended slightly positive…

Tom
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