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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #10,101
  • Aug 28, 2009 10:19am Aug 28, 2009 10:19am
Quoting fti
short euro is wrong way,you will be unable to have cable leg to cross out.
note: short euro/usd short cable = long usd
to leg
short cable long euro is long euro/cable.
first leg is on cable, to squeeze euro for leg.
usdyen plays to pitch or yaw.
Fti,

Thank you. I think a light bulb just turned on, need to study this...............
  • #10,102
  • Aug 28, 2009 10:27am Aug 28, 2009 10:27am
Quoting fti

This may be too advance for you, but basically is to cross the Euro / gbp one leg at a time depending on the directional flux.
At the moment yes, but I understand somewhat the thoughts behind the action. How to incorporate into MO will take some (much) study, but it is in the right direction..... hadn't thought of it in that fashion.

again thanks,
  • #10,103
  • Aug 28, 2009 10:36am Aug 28, 2009 10:36am
Quoting auxesis
At the moment yes, but I understand somewhat the thoughts behind the action. How to incorporate into MO will take some (much) study, but it is in the right direction..... hadn't thought of it in that fashion.

again thanks,
this MO is for BIG BOYS (elephants) fights scenario as none will colapse, but disadvanytaged temporarily. and wiill regarner strength to counter the attack. As they fight and when bull or bear loses temporary. you take advantage to position for counter offensive. if the fight goes into stalemate you seek safe harbour in dormant currency cross only to re initiate to which ever wakes up again.

At the end you, get lots of candle sticks shadows money.
Esp if the shadows are long.

You trade without bias only reflex. This strategy is not advantages for trending runs.

regards
  • #10,104
  • Aug 28, 2009 10:42am Aug 28, 2009 10:42am
Fti,

hypothetical question, if you sensed a directional shift between EUR/GBP during a rescue, could the opposing currency be used.

I assume you can see the directional bias E/G from the 3k's or do you keep a separate E/G chart open.

Brain is racing, apologies for the questions if too much.

a
  • #10,105
  • Aug 28, 2009 10:44am Aug 28, 2009 10:44am
Quoting fti
short euro is wrong way,you will be unable to have cable leg to cross out.
note: short euro/usd short cable = long usd
to leg
short cable long euro is long euro/cable.
first leg is on cable, to squeeze euro for leg.
usdyen plays to pitch or yaw.

This may be too advance for you, but basically is to cross the Euro / gbp one leg at a time depending on the directional flux.
FTI, which is the best time frame to see this. I have been looking at the Day/One hour and 5 mins for the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/GBP to try to get my head around it. I am also finding it a little advance. Like Auxesis I have been mainly short on the EUR/USD. Thanks Ray
  • #10,106
  • Aug 28, 2009 10:45am Aug 28, 2009 10:45am
Quoting auxesis
I believe London will be out next Monday, kicker to me is the Labor day weekend holiday is very late this year, not till next weekend, so I don't know how that plays out as to when everyone will be back?

England has a public holiday on Monday - so everyone will be trying to leave early for home tonight..(maybe not all crafty traders though???)

Regards
  • #10,107
  • Aug 28, 2009 10:46am Aug 28, 2009 10:46am
Quoting fti
this MO is for BIG BOYS (elephants) fights scenario as none will colapse, but disadvanytaged temporarily. and wiill regarner strength to counter the attack. As they fight and when bull or bear loses temporary. you take advantage to position for counter offensive. if the fight goes into stalemate you seek safe harbour in dormant currency cross only to re initiate to which ever wakes up again.

At the end you, get lots of candle sticks shadows money.
Esp if the shadows are long.

You trade without bias only reflex. [b]This strategy is not advantages...
Thank you, need to reevaluate my original thoughts, much to digest
  • #10,108
  • Aug 28, 2009 11:08am Aug 28, 2009 11:08am
Quoting auxesis
Fti,

hypothetical question, if you sensed a directional shift between EUR/GBP during a rescue, could the opposing currency be used.

I assume you can see the directional bias E/G from the 3k's or do you keep a separate E/G chart open.

Brain is racing, apologies for the questions if too much.

a
yes , you can use the cross hedge to realign , but your base(initial) leg must be in line with the cross directional impulse, other wise you get killed on both legs.
There is only one directional bias on a 4 legged hedge, and you had to have got this directional bias correct in the first instance to advantage your position. Ie if you use it to cross hedge when you initial position is wrong. You will die on both legs if you hedge out.

In other words, the cross hedge cannot be used to save a bad initial position, only to enhance the squeeze by leaning on cross strength to save harbour for retraces.

This dance strategy has many bind spots that only advance traders would be aware of. The advantage s are very subtle, without expert training , I doubt many can use. These are Mmakers strategies. You need to have much market making behaviourial experience to understand as it becomes multi dimensional. ( no more binormial decisions)
  • #10,109
  • Aug 28, 2009 11:09am Aug 28, 2009 11:09am
hey fti, I cant seem to be able to PM you. can anybody here teach me the proper way to do it??


regards
  • #10,110
  • Aug 28, 2009 11:18am Aug 28, 2009 11:18am
Quoting 1234
FTI, which is the best time frame to see this. I have been looking at the Day/One hour and 5 mins for the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/GBP to try to get my head around it. I am also finding it a little advance. Like Auxesis I have been mainly short on the EUR/USD. Thanks Ray
Same muti short charts(5 mins) and hourly of the 3 kingdoms.
you should not look into day bias as that would take you into long swords, which requires deep pockets, and longest days of babysiting with short naps.
Easiest way to burn your candle both end. And easy to get into dangerous lost of focus and much mistakes due to sleep deprivation fatigue.

If you plan these strategies , for non babysitting MO, please spare me the grief.
  • #10,111
  • Aug 28, 2009 11:24am Aug 28, 2009 11:24am
Quoting fti
yes , you can use the cross hedge to realign , but your base(initial) leg must be in line with the cross directional impulse, other wise you get killed on both legs.
There is only one directional bias on a 4 legged hedge, and you had to have got this directional bias correct in the first instance to advantage your position. Ie if you use it to cross hedge when you initial position is wrong. You will die on both legs if you hedge out.

In other words, the cross hedge cannot be used to save a bad initial position, only to enhance the squeeze by leaning...
Thank you, I realize that the interplay is outside my use and understanding at the moment, but on the surface would I be correct in this scenario,

This morning if I felt that the $ Bull was coming on, I would see his foot print in the Pound first and with bigger legs as EUR/GBP was climbing which was seen in both the E/U and G/U charts.......... Pound was making new lows, Euro still holding range.

I should have been short Pound.
  • #10,112
  • Edited 11:52am Aug 28, 2009 11:37am | Edited 11:52am
Quoting 012
hey fti, I cant seem to be able to PM you. can anybody here teach me the proper way to do it??


regards
Hi 012,
received your PM.

regards
  • #10,113
  • Aug 28, 2009 11:39am Aug 28, 2009 11:39am
Quoting 1234
FTI, which is the best time frame to see this. I have been looking at the Day/One hour and 5 mins for the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/GBP to try to get my head around it. I am also finding it a little advance. Like Auxesis I have been mainly short on the EUR/USD. Thanks Ray
just some initial thoughts on the charts
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  • #10,114
  • Aug 28, 2009 11:43am Aug 28, 2009 11:43am
Quoting fti
Same muti short charts(5 mins) and hourly of the 3 kingdoms.
you should not look into day bias as that would take you into long swords, which requires deep pockets, and longest days of babysiting with short naps.
Easiest way to burn your candle both end. And easy to get into dangerous lost of focus and much mistakes due to sleep deprivation fatigue.

If you plan these strategies , for non babysitting MO, please spare me the grief.
Thanks Fti, I am still just trading the one pair, EUR/USD. Day chart is so I am trading with the trend, one hour is for keeping with trend also. I also have the 15 min open as well but decisions are made on 5 mins. Lately I have been using short attacks closing out the scout as well. Just finished a attack short the EUR/USD from 1.4370 area and all squared at 1.4324. At time of writing I am waiting for a pullback to enter a scout. Will study the 3k and EUR/GBP more over the weekend. Ray
  • #10,115
  • Aug 28, 2009 11:47am Aug 28, 2009 11:47am
Quoting auxesis
This morning if I felt that the $ Bull was coming on, I would see his foot print in the Pound first and with bigger legs as EUR/GBP was climbing which was seen in both the E/U and G/U charts.......... Pound was making new lows, Euro still holding range.

I should have been short Pound.
i saw it this way. the markets were bumped up by some thing hard underneath. the impulse leg for leg (ATR momentum) is stronger on the Euro than the cable. But cable being thinner market is always more volitile than Euro.
In effects if bullish move would be firmer in Euro and retraces from the up move should be deeper in cable.
in effects bias Long euro/cable base.

so short euro robs you the vasitility of crossing out correctly.

regards
  • #10,116
  • Aug 28, 2009 11:52am Aug 28, 2009 11:52am
Quoting auxesis
just some initial thoughts on the charts
Thanks Auxesis, I will study this and what Fti has presented over the weekend. Ray
  • #10,117
  • Aug 28, 2009 12:04pm Aug 28, 2009 12:04pm
Quoting fti
i saw it this way. the markets were bumped up by some thing hard underneath. the impulse leg for leg (ATR momentum) is stronger on the Euro than the cable. But cable being thinner market is always more volitile than Euro.
In effects if bullish move would be firmer in Euro and retraces from the up move should be deeper in cable.
in effects bias Long euro/cable base.

so short euro robs you the vasitility of crossing out correctly.

regards

Thank you.

Taking a break for a bit, wishing all a great day/evening
  • #10,118
  • Aug 28, 2009 12:10pm Aug 28, 2009 12:10pm
Quoting 1234
Thanks Fti, I am still just trading the one pair, EUR/USD. Day chart is so I am trading with the trend, one hour is for keeping with trend also. I also have the 15 min open as well but decisions are made on 5 mins. Lately I have been using short attacks closing out the scout as well. Just finished a attack short the EUR/USD from 1.4370 area and all squared at 1.4324. At time of writing I am waiting for a pullback to enter a scout. Will study the 3k and EUR/GBP more over the weekend. Ray
hi 1234,
sorry I misread you intentions, as you are still trying to master basics , you are doing correctly. The strategies presented just is at intermediate levels and not useful for you.

Be aware that there are much strategies that may only be useful for many only when they had mastered basics and goes up to more complex ways of managing.As in all things inlife things gets more complex as we move along. And that at basics this advantages will not be accorded the privilages. One day when you had mastered basics and gain more experience and knowledge , these may be come useful for your advancement.

My bad in misreading.

regards
  • #10,119
  • Aug 28, 2009 12:17pm Aug 28, 2009 12:17pm
Quoting auxesis
just some initial thoughts on the charts
Hi aux,

There is some wrongs in you thougts that I would like to point out . And that is that the crosses moves because of spots movements and that monitoring cross charts has no meaning whatsoever to me.
For me the movements and variances from spot majors leads me to crosses possibilities and not the other way around.

From your charts presented I see no value in the analytics. As I had presented before, i am only on the 3 kingdoms and they individually and collectively gives me the technical picture for the spots as well as the crosses. except for Minors and exotics , of which I have no interest in due to the immaturity of those markets.

regards
  • #10,120
  • Edited 12:50pm Aug 28, 2009 12:38pm | Edited 12:50pm
Fti,

Yes. I only put the EUR/GBP chart up for a visual, I understand that it is just a combination of the E/$ + G/$ combined. My initial thoughts were confirmed when I looked at it, the movements coincide with the weakness and strength played out by the two and the bias can be seen in the respective charts.

What you have shared goes much deeper that my original thoughts. which was the ability to differentiate the better major to play in an overall specific initial bias and scout deployment, dependent upon their inner-relationship.

You look at the charts and see who's moving, doing what, what looks good..... I just had never thought of it from that perspective. If listening to the charts, I'm not sure that that would not already be apparent and seen by their movements. I may be trying to over complicate things.

Will study deeply..........

regards
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