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  • #41
  • Aug 28, 2009 6:12am Aug 28, 2009 6:12am
Order Flow is what moves the market.

A couple of things to read - start with googling 'Carol Osler', or 'C.L. Osler'. She has written on order flow extensively. Her cited sources are also excellent. Carol writes in a very approachable manner.

Here on FF, look up joelcf's posts. He works for a bank and explains a few things. Pay close attention.

Order flow move price (not our orders), hence price movement will give you a lot of information on what the market participants are doing with their money, and its future direction. Over at the J16 thread it is described as Price Action.

There is a lot of good potential in this thread. Once Order Flow is understood, you can exploit it.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #42
  • Aug 28, 2009 6:16am Aug 28, 2009 6:16am
Quoting StoragePro
Order Flow is what moves the market.... Once Order Flow is understood, you can exploit it.
I think you slightly miss the essence of the thread, it's about what's behind order flow as opposed to order flow itself, and how the reasoning behind the order flow of the masses can be exploitable predictability for the few.

All it takes is a bit of lateral thinking.
  • #43
  • Aug 28, 2009 6:27am Aug 28, 2009 6:27am
Quoting pipmutt
I think you slightly miss the essence of the thread, it's about what's behind order flow as opposed to order flow itself, and how the reasoning behind the order flow of the masses can be exploitable predictability for the few.

All it takes is a bit of lateral thinking.
Hi Pip -

Read that stuff I pointed the thread at. It addresses this precisely.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #44
  • Aug 28, 2009 6:31am Aug 28, 2009 6:31am
Quoting StoragePro
Hi Pip -

Read that stuff I pointed the thread at. It addresses this precisely.

Hey SP

Yep you're right, I should have read it first, I just assumed it was the same old same old, my bad I'll take a look, thanks.
  • #45
  • Aug 28, 2009 6:38am Aug 28, 2009 6:38am
@Flash
Quote
(in the past I thought it is random....boy, what a mistake...lol)
The market is NOT random,it's so for from random it's not funny.And yes Flash,if you think it is then you are making a big boo boo.
Those who say it is random will be a little embarrassed when they find out the truth.

@mp777
Quote
An excellent thread in the making here, thanks skfx.
No worries Chris.My pleasure bud.
I can only go so far though and you will found out why when i reply to Scotty.

@Goose
Quote
Is this getting in the micro structure of the market then?
Goose,traders of all types have to do what they have to do...trade.They place orders.
For the big players,they NEED to place orders,they have no choice.You and I though,it's more of a want thing.We are not forced to do business unless we want too.This is an edge in itself,another one.Think about what this means.
Hint:we get too watch the big nutcases push capital around.But we need not get involved until we know the hand.
Ever thought you could trade without a stop loss?(not recommending this.i do use stops but just as a terrorist type thing if you catch my drift or internet crash).
Once you KNOW and UNDERSTAND,using a stop seems silly because price can only go ONE WAY.

It's your job to find out:
Who's trading?
Why are they trading?
How are they trading?and;
Where are they doing business?

How can i capitalise on the answers i found to the questions above?

@Scotty
Quote
Are you refering to the order book or simple volume data in the unseen half?
order book.
I had a member here PM me regarding OANDA'S order details but these will do you no good.

Quote
There is a member here at FF named Gaston who does not post very often but claims to be an orderflow trader.
Ah yes,Gaston,now i remember.Yes,he has it,and he won't give much away.Darkstar has it also.You will find that Gaston,Darkstar and myself KNOW.There will be others.
If i divulged certain details i may annoy the two fellows i have listed and probably a few others also(like i said i have had PM's).I must ensure i do not go too far with this.
Look,don't worry if you don't GET IT.If you remain around long enough there may be a glimmer of hope,just a glimmer.
These guys will agree with me that the market is NOT random,it is inefficient.Most will never find these inefficiencies.That's the way it is though.I cannot help it.
If everyone knew where would we be?

Quote
I notice that you do use charts in referace to the orderflow, but like Gaston you mention this unseen piece of the puzzle.
Scotty,you don't need the charts believe me.

Guys,i hope that you don't get too crusty with me if i start sounding a little vague or dancing around the ball without picking it up.
My job here is to get you guys to think OUTSIDE the box.Believe me,out side the box is where it's all going on.Most retail traders find themselves INSIDE the box.....in darkness.
There are institutions making massive amounts of capital and you guys just need to read between the lines to cut some out.

I will catch you guys later.I have this funny feeling i am coming down with something.Headache yesterday,sore throat today and sneezing...just great
I hope it's not swine lol.
Take it easy.

Cheers
sk
  • #46
  • Aug 28, 2009 6:59am Aug 28, 2009 6:59am
Quoting pipmutt
Hey SP

Yep you're right, I should have read it first, I just assumed it was the same old same old, my bad I'll take a look, thanks.
No Problemo. Cheers.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #47
  • Aug 28, 2009 7:42am Aug 28, 2009 7:42am
I've just taken another 22 pips today, 109 this week (target ~20 daily).

Like I said before, I know (I can see) where other traders are and what they're expecting, but I ignore those areas for my own safety and sanity. Am I wrong in what I'm doing, depriving myself of the 'big game' and the bigger moves?

I think my trading style is outside of the box, perhaps a little on the edge, but definitely looking in and not out!
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #48
  • Edited 10:12am Aug 28, 2009 7:42am | Edited 10:12am
Wow, amazing someone came out with this thread. Skfx, I salute you Sir. I know the feeling you have inside you... you want to share because you realise how far people are from the Truth, and how desperately people need it. You think that sharing it will detract from you trading. That would explain the emails you got, other people have this quality inside them aswell. I have it too, I think its just a human tendancy to be self centered. (We analyise our inward conditions highly as traders). But, my dear friend, people can only ulitmately help themselves, if at all.

I read the whole thread and what I can say is this, even though you shared somewhat, people didn't get it. We need to take the reins and take responsibility for our ownselves. At the end of the day, I do not believe the market is out to get us. The real enemy of the trader is his own self. The problem lies in part with the complete lack of proper education in this business, or you could say the knowledge of the reality of the market is lacking.

We need to trade on where the orders have proven themselves to be, not where we think they might be, i.e. using fibonacci retracements, pivot points, candlestick formations, trendlines, news, market sentiment (this one pisses me off the most), moving averages, indicators, oscillators, other people opinions, economist outlooks (put your money where you mouth is), bank reports, msnbc etc etc etc. Its a simple shift of focus. You could spend the rest of your life looking for the holy grail when the market is simply refecting the ongoing supply and demand equation, its economics 101.

So Skfx, please don't shy away from sharing your knowledge, sharing opens the doors of abundance.
  • #49
  • Aug 28, 2009 7:50am Aug 28, 2009 7:50am
Quoting Ferrari
Wow, amazing someone came out with this thread. Skfx, I salute you Sir. I know the feeling you have inside you... That would explain the emails you got, other people have this quality inside them aswell. I have it too...

So Skfx, please don't shy away from sharing your knowledge, sharing opens the doors of abundance.
If you have 'it' inside you, why aren't you sharing this information that you expect from others?
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #50
  • Aug 28, 2009 7:53am Aug 28, 2009 7:53am
Quoting Ferrari
The problem lies in part lies with the complete lack of proper education in this business, or you could say the knowledge of the reality of the market is lacking.
Over time I'm beginning to see that the issue is the education.

I won't single out and particular company or website, but most follow the same hard and fast rules about the technicals and the fundamentals, all I see is hundreds of companies making money from teaching the masses to become sheep, who relentlessly relinquish their capital.

Technology has empowered them.

I'm not conspiracy a theorist, this is just my take.
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #51
  • Aug 28, 2009 7:54am Aug 28, 2009 7:54am
Skfx.....are you saying that you cant do it without good orderbook!??
forexflash
  • #52
  • Edited 8:22am Aug 28, 2009 8:10am | Edited 8:22am
"We need to trade on where the orders HAVE proven themselves to be"

Exactly. This is not something that is not already out in the public domain but there isn't much of it. Look at Sam Seiden's stuff. He worked with order flow at the CME. Its nice to get other's opinion on these issues. To think this will change the dynamics of the market is ridiculous. I am sure there is more than one interpretation of how to use order flow and I am sure there are many nuances and tricks people use. Lets get on with it and have good discussion.

Fibonacci: This guy spent his whole life trying to create gold out of lead..literally!
  • #53
  • Aug 28, 2009 8:20am Aug 28, 2009 8:20am
"@Scotty

order book.
I had a member here PM me regarding OANDA'S order details but these will do you no good.


Ah yes,Gaston,now i remember.Yes,he has it,and he won't give much away.Darkstar has it also.You will find that Gaston,Darkstar and myself KNOW.There will be others.
If i divulged certain details i may annoy the two fellows i have listed and probably a few others also(like i said i have had PM's).I must ensure i do not go too far with this.
Look,don't worry if you don't GET IT.If you remain around long enough there may be a glimmer of hope,just a glimmer.
These guys will agree with me that the market is NOT random,it is inefficient.Most will never find these inefficiencies.That's the way it is though.I cannot help it.
If everyone knew where would we be?


Scotty,you don't need the charts believe me.

Guys,i hope that you don't get too crusty with me if i start sounding a little vague or dancing around the ball without picking it up.
My job here is to get you guys to think OUTSIDE the box.Believe me,out side the box is where it's all going on.Most retail traders find themselves INSIDE the box.....in darkness.
There are institutions making massive amounts of capital and you guys just need to read between the lines to cut some out.

I will catch you guys later.I have this funny feeling i am coming down with something.Headache yesterday,sore throat today and sneezing...just great
I hope it's not swine lol.
Take it easy.

Cheers
sk"

Thank you sir..I appreciate the response. I think it would be a wise thing to not give too much away - especially in a place like this. Don't give away the bread that feeds your own.

Aside from the particulars, I am curious about your performance using the order flow data. Bringing up Gaston again...(I'm have an investigative mind - I'm not a FF stocker!) The last post he made was in a thread discussing whether or not the market is random. In that post he praises a member who goes by the name of 'Daytrading.' Not only does Gaston give praise, but he also vouched for him. This was his post:

"Anyone out there trying to figure out what are realistic approaches to trading would do well reading through this thread with a magnifying glass.

Daytrading, great contributions." - Gaston

Now, in that thread, Daytrading mentions his yearly returns were around 25% if I remember correctly.

25% is not bad by any stretch, especially if you are trading a huge pot. But when most readers come across a thread like this, they imagine returns in the thousands of percent range a year. And why not, if you always know where the market is going, by all means load up.

So if you don't mind sharing, knowing what you know, what is a reasonable yearly net return? I think your answer will help put this particular edge in the right perspective.

Thanks so much,

Scotty B
  • #54
  • Aug 28, 2009 9:20am Aug 28, 2009 9:20am
Quoting Scotty B
"@Scotty

So if you don't mind sharing, knowing what you know, what is a reasonable yearly net return? I think your answer will help put this particular edge in the right perspective.
Sorry Scotty but I think this is totally irrelevant and unhelpful.

What will be next? If anyone asks for an EA
  • #55
  • Aug 28, 2009 9:24am Aug 28, 2009 9:24am
Quoting Scotty B
So if you don't mind sharing, knowing what you know, what is a reasonable yearly net return? I think your answer will help put this particular edge in the right perspective.

Thanks so much,

Scotty B
Quoting Porkpie
Sorry Scotty but I think this is totally irrelevant and unhelpful.

What will be next? If anyone asks for an EA

I think that's a fair assessment and reasonable to expect or at least ask for quantifiable evidence of the OP accuracy and success.

My week-on-week gains averaging 21% would seem rather large but then, I operate with a modest capital which I draw from every week.

I don't need to retain capital (my net gain) to further leverage my positions because as it stands my process is delivering more than acceptable returns.

Over time, I will steadily increase contract size and thus my capital, but for me there's no rush and without tempting fate as I'm quite young, time is on my side.
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #56
  • Aug 28, 2009 9:45am Aug 28, 2009 9:45am
Quoting Bleek
I think that's a fair assessment and reasonable to expect or at least ask for quantifiable evidence of the OP accuracy and success.

My week-on-week gains averaging 21% would seem rather large but then, I operate with a modest capital which I draw from every week.

I don't need to retain capital (my net gain) to further leverage my positions because as it stands my process is delivering more than acceptable returns.

Over time, I will steadily increase contract size and thus my capital, but for me there's no rush and without tempting fate...
With all due respect and I appreciate you wanting to count your pennies. But, the discussion here is not about a system. It is about understanding the underlying dynamics of the market. It is fundamentally wrong to this discussion to start talking about potential earnings. The information discussed can be used with any system you want as so far as the underlying dynamics of market structure which is supply and demand and the order flow that creates this movement becomes a priority in your decision making process. This discussion is not about how much you can make in a week, a month or year, its not about money management. It is about gaining an understanding of how you can achieve an edge in your trading if you fully understand how the market works. Again, it is not a system.
  • #57
  • Aug 28, 2009 9:52am Aug 28, 2009 9:52am
Quoting Porkpie
With all due respect and I appreciate you wanting to count your pennies. But, the discussion here is not about a system. It is about understanding the underlying dynamics of the market. It is fundamentally wrong to this discussion to start talking about potential earnings. The information discussed can be used with any system you want as so far as the underlying dynamics of market structure which is supply and demand and the order flow that creates this movement becomes a priority in your decision making process. This discussion is not about how...
I understand it's not a system.

But you also have to appreciate that anyone could come on here and post cryptic clues, vague hints, glimmers of hope, and argue that not qualifying any of it is merely to defend their position and knowledge which then begs the question, why post in the first place?

I'm not trying to detract from the OP's posts or discourage anyone/anything here.
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #58
  • Aug 28, 2009 9:56am Aug 28, 2009 9:56am
Quoting Scotty B
So if you don't mind sharing, knowing what you know, what is a reasonable yearly net return? I think your answer will help put this particular edge in the right perspective.
[Assuming you have an edge] Yearly net return always depends on how much volatility you are ready to tolerate - there is no answer to your question.

Good thread btw, let's concentrate to the flow.
  • #59
  • Aug 28, 2009 10:03am Aug 28, 2009 10:03am
Quoting Bleek
I think that's a fair assessment and reasonable to expect or at least ask for quantifiable evidence of the OP accuracy and success.

My week-on-week gains averaging 21% would seem rather large but then, I operate with a modest capital which I draw from every week.

I don't need to retain capital (my net gain) to further leverage my positions because as it stands my process is delivering more than acceptable returns.

Over time, I will steadily increase contract size and thus my capital, but for me there's no rush and without tempting fate as I'm...
Yeah for sure.. We are big boys here (at least some of us I hope). I don't think the question is out of bounds at all. To be completely honest, I would be disappointed and doubtful if the number was much above 100% gross yearly, or .05% weekly.

Also, I don't ask the question in an attempt to qualify the thread starter down. I believe he's profitable, and moreover, an informed trader. Who better to ask for such a number?

There are two former pro traders I respect deeply that made their fortune on the floor of the CBOT a couple of decades ago. They ended their run with over 200Million in profits, and started with only 200K. I about fell out of my chair the other day, my wife had HGTV on and one of these traders (they are brothers by the way) was on a show that was showcasing his old mansion on the california coast. What a small world it is. Anyways...I bring up those numbers to issustrate what is really possible and at the same time realistic in regards to trading returns when you know what your are doing.
Those guys accheived that return in a little over 10 years BTW. Do the math..The numbers I shared above support the example.

I personally go for 3-5% weekely. I look at my trading as specific work that I need to do and when I'm done I'm done; I hang out with my family. Sometimes I finish the week quickly and sometimes I'm not done till late thursday. But my portion I get. I only share that for the sake of revealing what I think is realistic.
  • #60
  • Aug 28, 2009 10:10am Aug 28, 2009 10:10am
Quoting Bleek
I think that's a fair assessment and reasonable to expect or at least ask for quantifiable evidence of the OP accuracy and success.
It's simple, don't believe a word he says if you don't want to.

His thread is designed to provoke people to think for themselves, be creative, look at the market and your trading from another angle, all he's doing is pointing you in the right direction. You don't need proof that the OP is profitable or even trades to be able to do that.

The wisdom and insight should be in the words you read not in how successful the author is, think and evaluate for yourself! If it makes sense then it doesn't matter a jot what the author is or isn't.

Sheeesh, what's next, "post your live trades", geez
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