Maths (ratio) problem

Hi all,

I need help with the following as my mental arithmetic is terrible. Please help if you can. Here is the problem:

Presume the following...

A currency pair has an average daily range of 1800 points (180 pips)
At new day start (midnight broker time) price is exactly 1800 points from the top and bottom of the range.

Therefore the following is true:

Current top of this new daily average range is 1.63340 (1.6154 + 0.018)
Current bottom of new daily average range is 1.59740 (1.6154 - 0.018)

Price moves South towards 1.59740 by 200 points (20 pips), so the top of the range must also move South by 200 points.

The move South brings us 200 points closer to the bottom of the average range at a new distance of 1600 from the current price to the bottom of the range, whilst maintaining a distance of 1800 points from the current price of the day to the top of the average daily range.

If price moves North by 400 points from this point, we will be 200 points closer to the top of the range and exhausted 400 points of the daily range so far. The bottom of the daily range will now move 200 Points North. This will continue throughout the rest of the day, until the daily range has completed

How do I work out the ratio of the distance South:North? I used to know how to work this out as a kid but its been about 15 years since I did this stuff at school.

Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Distance of south : Distance of north

To what?

I am attempting to code an indicator which shows likely probability of price completing daily range North or South before end of day, based on current price in relation to distance from top or bottom of average daily range

I have coded all the relevant elements which work correctly, I just can't remember how to do this basic math.

I am presuming you want a percentage of current against the total distance. You would take the distance of 1800 and divide it into the amount down 200, in this case 1600. should be approx 88% current point of the total.
1600/1800=88% rounded.

you could also do it by the amount traveled. You would then take the 200 down and divide by the total distance 1800. should be approx 11% from top.
200/1800=11% rounded.

It just depends on how you want to look at it. current point against the total distance or the actual amount traveled within that distance.

You would use the mathab function for the calculation. You could then draw a line or make a some kind of dot, arrow or even shade the amount of movement. It could be an interesting indicator although it may be done somewhere, have you searched.

Happy trading
Tom

Hi Tom,

Thanks for your response. I am aware of how to calculate the distance travelled and the distance remaining as a percentage, however, this isn't what I was after.

I want to be able to calculate the ratio of distance travelled South to the distance travelled North.

I have already created the parts of the indicator that draw lines to target top or bottom of range and advises me of pips left in range and distance to top and bottom from current price, and although they work as intended, are of little use to me without this ratio calculation.

I also time how far price has moved and use this in my indicator which is why I need to know how to calculate the ratio of distance moved North to distance moved South.

Any other solutions, please?

Ok I probably am not getting the concept in my head, my math isn't getting the same result as your example. but are you looking for distance traveled divided by time of travel..

Errrrrmmm Math's kid here also confused.


600 up, 400 down gives you 600/400 so a ratio of 1.5 ?? or 400/600 ratio of .66 ??

Keep going in the hope either of us will get on the same page at some stage.

Sorry guys... My explanations are terrible. I have attached the indicator here that I have so far.

Ignore the StartHour input, I am not done coding it. I have not put the time factors into the code yet either. Also, the code is very amateur as I am not a coder, so please forgive me as I'm sure there are better ways to do what I want it to do.

If you look at my code, its the 'statistics' section that I am having issues with (bottom of code). What I want to do is determine probability of completing the range North or South based on where price is within the range.

Example (simplified here for clarity):
Average Daily Range is 100 pips
Current price is at 1.99
Potential top is 2.0000
Potential bottom is 1.98

Price moves down 75 pips to 1.9825. The move has completed 75% of its daily range and is 25 pips away from the bottom. The potential range top must also move down by 75 pips to 1.9925. At this point, purely based on price (without factoring support/resistance or time left until end of day), I want to determine the probability of price continuing South or reversing and heading North.

Can I present the information as a ratio or some sort of betting odds i.e. 1:4 Short or 0.25 Long? If so, what is the math... for the life of me I can't remember how to do this.

I know I'm being a bit slow here, so please excuse me if this is a really stupid question. The display of the lines in the indicator display correctly and all other information it holds so far is correct.

I appreciate any assistance and feedback.

I don't honestly think this is possible to calculate, too many factors and too many variables, any number you came up with would be pretty much meaningless I'm sorry to say.

But I'll think on it for abit.

I think I tried something like this ages ago with no joy, but tried so many ideas out stat's wise it all gets confusing.

Sure... this is just a support tool and not basing any trades directly off what it presents. I am hoping to add the time factors into it (similar to momentum) and add deviations at point turns. My maths really lets me down in this department, hence this thread.

Please don't waste too much time on this. I thought it would be something simple for you guys to give me an answer off the top of your head. It really isn't important enough for you spend more than 2 or 3 minutes on.

I hope this is what you mean.

You need to calculate these:
TodaysRange = HighToday - LowToday
LeftToMove = AverageDailyRange - TodaysRange
PotentialLow = LowToday - LeftToMove
PotentialHigh = HighToday + LeftToMove
PriceToLow = CurrentPrice - PotentialLow
PriceToHigh = PotentialHigh - CurrentPrice
RatioLowToHigh = PriceToLow/PriceToHigh

Look at the attached picture. Price starts trading at 1,9900. At this point the calculations are (AverageDailyRange = 0,0100):
TodaysRange = HighToday - LowToday = 1,9900 - 1,9900 = 0
LeftToMove = AverageDailyRange - TodaysRange = 0,0100 - 0 = 0,0100
PotentialLow = LowToday - LeftToMove = 1,9900 - 0,0100 = 1,9800
PotentialHigh = HighToday + LeftToMove = 1,9900 + 0,0100 = 2,0000
PriceToLow = CurrentPrice - PotentialLow = 1,9900 - 1,9800 = 0,0100
PriceToHigh = PotentialHigh - CurrentPrice = 2,0000 - 1,9900 = 0,0100
RatioLowToHigh = PriceToLow/PriceToHigh = 0,0100 / 0,0100 = 1 = 1:1

At Point A price has reaced todays low and is trading @ 1,9845 and the calculations are:
TodaysRange = HighToday - LowToday = 1,9900 - 1,9845 = 0,0055
LeftToMove = AverageDailyRange - TodaysRange = 0,0100 - 0,0055 = 0,0045
PotentialLow = LowToday - LeftToMove = 1,9845 - 0,0045 = 1,9800
PotentialHigh = HighToday + LeftToMove = 1,9900 + 0,0045 = 1,9945
PriceToLow = CurrentPrice - PotentialLow = 1,9845 - 1,9800 = 0,0045
PriceToHigh = PotentialHigh - CurrentPrice = 1,9945 - 1,9845 = 0,0100
RatioLowToHigh = PriceToLow/PriceToHigh = 0,0045 / 0,0100 = 0,45 = 9:20

At Point B price has reaced todays low and is trading @ 1,9875 and the calculations are:
TodaysRange = HighToday - LowToday = 1,9900 - 1,9845 = 0,0055
LeftToMove = AverageDailyRange - TodaysRange = 0,0100 - 0,0055 = 0,0045
PotentialLow = LowToday - LeftToMove = 1,9845 - 0,0045 = 1,9800
PotentialHigh = HighToday + LeftToMove = 1,9900 + 0,0045 = 1,9945
PriceToLow = CurrentPrice - PotentialLow = 1,9875 - 1,9800 = 0,0075
PriceToHigh = PotentialHigh - CurrentPrice = 1,9945 - 1,9875 = 0,0070
RatioLowToHigh = PriceToLow/PriceToHigh = 0,0075 / 0,0070 = 1,07 = 15:14

At Point C there's a new LowToday which pushes the range down even more and gives the range to be between 1,9915 and 1,9815. At point D price is trading @ 1,9885 and the RatioLowToHigh = 0,0085 / 0,0030 = 2,83 = 17:6. If price goes above HighToday but stays inside 1,9915 then you'll get a new potential range of the day and current price will give you the ratio of low to high (or south:north if you like).

Is this correct?

Now why couldn't I explain it like that? The part I can't work out is the RatioLowtoHigh... Would you mind explaining how you arrived at the figures in the ratio please? This is the part I have forgotten how to do.

TIA

Well good that we are on the same page .

The ratio is simply done like this: do the calculation PriceToLow/PriceToHigh. At point D this is: 0,0085/0,0030 = 85/30. Find the highest whole number (integer) that you can divide both the nominator and the denominator with and still end up with whole number (integer). In this case the biggest number we can divide both the nominator and the denominator is 5. This will give us the ratio: (85/5) : (30/5) = 17 : 6

NowAndLater, your explanation is clear and jogs my memory a little bit. Thanks.

Now I don't suppose you would know how I find the integer programmatically? Would I just use a loop until I it reported back a whole number, or is there a simpler way?

A simple loop-function inside your code should do it, don't know how to get it otherwise.

Some simple code like this I suppose might work:

int findInteger(double PriceToLow, double PriceToHigh){
int integer, i, integerStart;
if(PriceToLow > PriceToHigh)
integerStart = PriceToHigh;
else
integerStart = PriceToLow;
for(int i = integerStart - 1; i>=2; i--){
if(MathMod(PriceToLow/Point, i) == 0 && MathMod(PriceToHigh/Point, i) == 0){
integer = i;
i = 1;
}
}
return(integer);
}

Add something to check that "integer" is actually something

Thanks for all your help. I will add this to the indicator with my time ideas also. I will post back here once it is finished.

I appreciate your help. Thanks again!

No problem, do post it here once you are done, it might be useful