Technical Analysis Fallacy

Hope fti was able to jump off of the barbeque grill ...

Anyone any idea what has happened?

Dow and Oil have been running up.
Dollar went down very strong.
Not sure what was first DOW and OIL or USD...

Can not find anything in the news yet

It has been awhile since we have seen late day buying, big money moves.

Not very illuminative but at least something to read ....

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The dollar was sold-off across the board Thursday afternoon in very thin trade, reversing an earlier climb.
The euro, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, U.K. pound and yen all hit intraday highs against the U.S. unit.
The higher-yielding currencies are garnering support with a strong surge in U.S. stocks, leading traders to sell the safe-haven buck.
The traditionally low-yielding yen and franc are outperforming too, though, as the dollar hits several technical levels that have sent it on a sharp slide across the board in a cross-market effect.
The reversal from early morning trends is indicative of a lack of consensus in the market, said Mike Moran, a currency strategist at Standard Chartered in New York.
Currencies have been moving back and forth inside relatively narrow ranges for months. Traders appear to be pushing the dollar to its boundaries in late trade, with exaggerated effect given relatively light liquidity due to August summer vacations, month-end and a U.K. holiday this coming Monday.
A good 7-year note auction earlier may also be weighing against the dollar, said Moran.
"It means dollar rates soften," he said.
Thursday afternoon in New York, the euro was at $1.4384 from $1.4245 late Wednesday, according to EBS via CQG. The U.S. dollar was at Y93.30 from Y94.13. The euro was at Y134.21 from Y134.09 Wednesday. The U.K. pound was at $1.6290 from $1.6245, and the dollar was at CHF1.0567 from CHF1.0683.
"There is a lot of position shifting as we go into month end," said Ron Leven, a currency strategist at Morgan Stanley in New York.
The euro rallied from around $1.4270 to a high of $1.4407.
The dollar fell to its lowest level this year against the Swiss franc, CHF1.0529, while the euro fell to a two-session low, CHF1.5161.
The dollar fell to more than a one-month low of Y93.20.
-By Riva Froymovich, Dow Jones Newswires; 21... ; [email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 27, 2009 14:49 ET (18:49 GMT)

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

Another interesting read. UK FSA is thinking about Tobin Taxes ...

http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/20...lobal-finance/

I wonder if this wasn´t a enginiered move to pic up more usd buyers around 1.4400/14. LIQUIDITY usually dryes out at this month and the timing off the move, makes me scratch my head...please be kind.

Back from NYC...I just saw the big 1H bear eating with hunger...
what the heck is going on!!!
I bet this killed so many people today...
It does look like an upward ranging territory...
If I were dancing I would be doing probably a bear dance...
but I prefer just to watch tonight this show...

Ah...Friday is coming...wach out...no much time for rescue...
Maybe I just watch until Sunday evening...
I think this is a critical point in the bull-bear war:
either a north climb or a deep to the south...
I feel more inclined for a slow south deep.
However, I think I wait for PA to show her hand.

Happy trading to all.

I think I danced...at last..
My 'dance' is probably a gross exaggeration..as I was quite lucky enough to pick up the GBP bull run earlier this evening..or is the usd bear the correct way round?
Anyway over 110 pips - which is a big achievement for me..
I seemed to have been putting my scouts in at all the wrong points since I have been practising fti's methods - but earlier this evening it was in the right place at the right time and I was able to follow the price movement or price bar pressure and take small and regular carts (my carts are very small) of pips on the move up..
I looked at the Dow for a change to see if it gave any different hints and ideas for me..And the short term time chart and the cable seemed to have a fairly close link and the trend looked upward..
It it a correlation that can be effectively used - or was I just lucky?
Sorry for the basicness of this question - I am discovering all the time that there is masses to learn to have any chance of becoming a profitable daily trader..
Thanks again fti and regulars for sharing..
And if I can make 100 pips (even if its just once) then there is hope for anyone who learns fti's thread..

I've just realised I have a major weakness in reading PA. After placing a scout (and maybe this is because my account is not large) I have a vested interest in the market going in the direction that I placed my scout. So, instead of looing at the PA and feeling where it is going, I am looking at the PA and trying to fit it around my desires - i.e. trying to see signs that it is going my way. I need to be more detached I think....

Anyone else have any thoughts on that?

Hi ALL,
yesterday I nealy got killed.
saved by flips.suspect CB presence.

today I am good old man and followtheir lead.)
I hate it, when CBs move under stealth mode.

trade well prices lower esp yen is bad for the economies, so yield. Don't fight.

regards

Happy trading day to everyone! Fresh coffee and a clear mind. OK, let's get it on! Missed an entry on the $/CAD and watching it move, but watching everything else now. Trade well my friends.

I was also in loss yesterday as I left my scout went cycling for 4 hours when I came home i ccouldn't believe what happened. I really hate this market is so manipulatited by big guns. Also yesterday I was defeated as I couldn't hold tempo anymore with a group. At the beggining of hill i was ditacting the tempo for second group but heart rate was 200 so I decided to stop for a minute as I was scared. Also I had the worst bike as I don't have money for a racing one, others had racing cycles. Therefore I was beated what hurts me a lot and also during holidays I lost so beautiful girl :S I really don't know how to empty ambitious mind and accept losses they hurt me so much. Otherwise tried to dance in morning but she doesn't want to dance with me

hello mijamoto

i am sorry you feel so bad. about racing: yesterday i heard about a guy i know from work almost died, racing up te Mont Ventoux they found him in alone and in a coma and he still is.
It is good we get scared and stop when our hart is going 200. i think this is not only true in sports but also trading.

maybe this post from fti will help... it has helped me

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...1&postcount=52

good luck

Fti,
about tomorow, how big should be those, who sent EUR/USD to 1.4406... Fed? Big banks?? I think that because it reached above 1.4400, it was hunting for money, not caused by oil,Dow... Thank you

imho they (CB's) just wanted to stop the dollar rising much more and the big move is people like fti flipping their positions. as far as i know it is their (CB) task to keep some peace in the markets wich is not good for traders.

regards

OK, I am long the GBP/$ and short the $/CAD. Protecting entry on both and we will see where they go.
Edit: square on the GBP with nice profits, and square on the CAD with little profits. back to the side lines for me and waiting.

Nice trades.

Glad to hear, that you have saved your book once again.
Was really anxiuos about you, as I have seen that powerful moves yesterday.
But as always - you have reacted pro-like ;-)

Good trades!

CU,
MaMood

fti, glad you and your account have lived to fight again another day. Good luck today. I will be very happy next week when August is finally over and traders are back at work. Good trading everyone.

You had been too cock sure of yourself that you left your baby unattended. You are not focus, not dedicated. And you make too many excuses for your failure, without remedy. Not withstanding the fact that too many things are going on in your life, and you are ridiculously undercapitalised.
Unfortunately, seems you don't have what it takes to be a good trader.Maybe you are too young to be in this fields of painand discipline May be in other endeavours.

regards