Maxsmarts Trading Journal and Discussion

equity down=usd & jpy up is an assumption to be verified...

that assumption is equity down & everything down then you have nothing to invest but hold usd and watch.

it may not be always true. look around the world it is not the case now...
at least many things will not have -70% to drop from now ... some of things are worth buying now instead of watch.

lol...I guess we'll see how it goes.

I didn't say 20 to 30k a day. I said 20k in 30 days. Markets don't always work out exactly as you think they might. So we'll just see. I've posted 20k in a month before though. I don't think it an impossible feat. In short, I'll hold you accountable in 30 days and I expect you to do the same billeye

hi maxsmart:
I read more yesterday and realized what you thought may still hold true.

jpy lends for free starting Y2000 and it is said that (fun) jpy house-wives borrow tons of money and inject into the world finan. system...

when low risk profit gains stop,
they run in a panic and return jpy to banks to stop interest increasing.

it really don't mean people exchange real currency usd to jpy to avoid risk of stock falling.... it is more of a leveraged speculation thing...

at some point when money flows too quick it may cause a feedback loop and cause some catastrophic effect.... I am digesting it's impact right now.

as to equity... if you're sure it'll go down actually trade index is more direct. most of time we don't place the order since we'll not really sure...

let's accept whatever randomness gives us...
setting a profit goal, if not hit & hit stop/loss instead... is a loss, most of the time we cannot predict where the randomness end right?

still awesome for the 20k target though ! ^_^

I agree that trading the S&P at this point is an excellent way to profit off the head and shoulders. Setting your stop loss beyond the broken neckline and your profit target at about 825.

that'll need an almost 50% fib retracement...

Well for the head and shoulders pattern as you probably know. You simply take the head of the pattern and project it from the neckline

It may stop short or go longer. But that is a reasonable target to start off with and adjust upon current market conditions.

Getting in short here at 149.58 on the GBP/JPY. Target is 140.

Can you post a chart of this pair showing the head and shoulders? I'm having a hard time seeing it. Also why are you targeting the 90 level?

Thanks

We are thinking about opening an options account but looking at the pound and the yen and are thinking about trading with that money. Do you think we should wait to open an options account or go ahead head and spot trade?

I thought you already had an options account. If you traded it spot you'd probably have to use a wide spot loss at this point if you entered now. Your stop loss should be at about 153. Only a close above this level would signal an end to the downward pressure in the near term. I don't know how much you have available to risk. The pound/yen is a very volatile currency pair. Options are helpful especially with smaller accounts. Here is a link to a video on the head and shoulders on the S&P 500.

http://www.learningmarkets.com/index...re-losses.html

s/l about which number?

My stop loss is a close on the daily chart above 155 which makes up the neckline of Head and shoulders for the pound yen. risk to reward ratio about 1:2. I think a move above 153 could negate the downside. However, I don't want to get whipped out by a stop loss. CIT is considering bankruptcy. Lloyd Bank in the UK is also experiencing problems as well as the IMF downgrading its economic outlook for the UK. We are at in important point on the weekly chart at support around 150. A close above should cause strong bearish momentum.

By your indicators, how far up do you think the EUR/USD will go? Do you think
the EUR/USD could go as far as 147?

I took a break after my huge loss on the GBP/JPY of about -$5,500. But its time to get back into the game.

I am currently long on the GBP/Jpy @ 154.34 with 1.6 standard lots targeting 156.17. Then I will short at 157.20 to target 154 on the channel that exists on the 4hour chart, 30 min. and tight range on the daily chart.

I had further computer problems but I am now typing on my new comp which is something to be excited about. Profit was taken for a bout $2,740.

All this week we have received good economic data which includes but is not limited to the following
1. Strong retail sales out of Canada
2. Strong increase in Industrial orders out of the eurozone
3. Above expectations consumer confidence out of the U.S.
4. Above expectiations German IFO report
5. Robust New home sales numbers for the U.S.
6. Decrease in weekly jobless claims for the U.S.
7. A better GDP than previously expected for the U.S.
8. Increase in home prices out of the U.K. above expectations

And still we have only seen lackluster rallies out at best in response to the news by equities later leading to either selling later or there is a complete disregard for the news entirely. The GBP/JPY has been falling since it peaked causing a double top at about the 162.50 region. The GBP looks the weakest across the board as investors are contemplating if the U.K. economy will recover behind both the U.S. and the Eurozone economies as BOE governor King extended the quantitative easing program in place in the U.K. Pointing to signs of predicted sluggish growth and a pessimisstic sort of "we're not out of the woods" statement. Given the response to the news, I once again lol think that a correction in the market is imminent. It seems that markets are looking for any reason to sell or take profit as the equity markets seem overextended considering the underlying fundamentals. Once again I think that there may be a move in the GBP/JPY to 130 if the currency pair manages to close on the weekly chart below 148. This would validate a double top. If you think that equity markets will remain bullish in the near term I think that the eur, aud, cad, are much better avenues to take advantage of that as the GBP looks very weak right now.

Pay close attention to the GDP announcement out of the U.K. That may be the catalyst and bit of bad news we need to send the pound lower in the short term since it has already been selling off on good news.

So if GDP for the U.K. is below expectations I will sell a call at 154. and look to short this pair with a target of 148 in the near term. We have nonfarm payrolls next week which will most likely be abominable and may very well be the bad news the market wants so much to intiate its sell off. So be cautious when going long the high yeilders. And look for a possible return of risk aversion in the weeks ahead.

Long AUD/USD here at .8840 confirmation of bullish momentum on a close above .88. Profit target .90 with one standard lot.