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4H Box Breakout

  • #2,681
  • Aug 27, 2009 11:02am Aug 27, 2009 11:02am
Quoting danno96
Let put this in prespective, starting with $10,000 account risking only 1% per trade projected using my backtesting results from 01/01/2002 to 10/08/2009 missing 2004 due to bad data would have netted $182K compounded (trading $18/pip). However, risking 2% would had compounded to $2.5 Mil (trading $474/pip). This include having couple of bad years (2005 & 2002).

Not bad for 2 trades per week, less than an hour per day stress free trading. So KISS principle, stay with the plan and enjoy life.


I agree with you 100% . We got similar mindset
It takes much less time than scalping the market and with much less risk.
  • #2,682
  • Aug 27, 2009 11:09am Aug 27, 2009 11:09am
Quoting Freako
i did a visual backtest n it seems that 50% stop loss in the box doesnt seem to b a good idea cos we might get stop out..
Yes , I notice that too. I also try to reduce SL to 50% once price move 75% to TP1 and that not a good idea either as it is too time consuming and when price break pass 75% of TP1 it usually go and hit TP1 anyway.
  • #2,683
  • Aug 27, 2009 11:10am Aug 27, 2009 11:10am
Quoting Freako
shiko,whats ur scalp system?? maybe u wana pm me?
Hi Freako,

I have no system per se. I am using BRW method although it is not scalping method but suited for bigger pips...
go to this forum, it is in Forex Factory but not strategies discussions:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=86429

It is method to trade market with S/R. It is pretty good, but I actually prefer Ace's method better.
Time/ Efforts per units better than with S/R method
  • #2,684
  • Aug 27, 2009 11:12am Aug 27, 2009 11:12am
Quoting danno96
Let put this in prespective, starting with $10,000 account risking only 1% per trade projected using my backtesting results from 01/01/2002 to 10/08/2009 missing 2004 due to bad data would have netted $182K compounded (trading $18/pip). However, risking 2% would had compounded to $2.5 Mil (trading $474/pip). This include having couple of bad years (2005 & 2002).

Not bad for 2 trades per week, less than an hour per day stress free trading. So KISS principle, stay with the plan and enjoy life.


Are you already trading live funds?
I am sticking to this plan, just trying to see what trade management slight c hange can do in different market conditions.
By the way, in ranging years, did you back test if we take partial profits?
I think it is the only time it can work better than looking for full TP-1,2,3.
  • #2,685
  • Aug 27, 2009 11:15am Aug 27, 2009 11:15am
Quoting danno96
Yes , I notice that too. I also try to reduce SL to 50% once price move 75% to TP1 and that not a good idea either as it is too time consuming and when price break pass 75% of TP1 it usually go and hit TP1 anyway.
how did u do ur backtest? im trying to learn one..
  • #2,686
  • Aug 27, 2009 11:17am Aug 27, 2009 11:17am
Phew - finally finished reading the entire thread from start to finish.

Big thank to Ace284 (and everyone else) for the info in this thread. I've been blown away by the quality of work done by everyone.

Quoting grant18265
Ace,

I think that this Monday is a bank holiday in the UK, so will you trade as per normal or not???

cheers

Grant
Grant, according to http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=292 Ace284 does trade, but risks less.
  • #2,687
  • Aug 27, 2009 11:18am Aug 27, 2009 11:18am
Quoting danno96
Let put this in prespective, starting with $10,000 account risking only 1% per trade projected using my backtesting results from 01/01/2002 to 10/08/2009 missing 2004 due to bad data would have netted $182K compounded (trading $18/pip). However, risking 2% would had compounded to $2.5 Mil (trading $474/pip). This include having couple of bad years (2005 & 2002).

Not bad for 2 trades per week, less than an hour per day stress free trading. So KISS principle, stay with the plan and enjoy life.



Danno, some misunderstanding?

You mentioned $10 000 account and risking 1-2% per trade. so, how is it possible to trade $18 per pip?
Did you mean $1.8 pr pip? $18 is for $100 000 account. with average box of 160 pips pip size actually would be $0.7 to $1.4 per pip.
  • #2,688
  • Edited 11:41am Aug 27, 2009 11:26am | Edited 11:41am
I've tried using the indicators from the first post, and can only get them to work on yen pairs. Can anyone shed some light on this? I'd like to flick through a few other pairs and see if there are any other candidates to add (the USD/CAD looks promising from a cursory glance without the indicator).
  • #2,689
  • Aug 27, 2009 11:32am Aug 27, 2009 11:32am
Quoting shiko
Are you already trading live funds?
I am sticking to this plan, just trying to see what trade management slight c hange can do in different market conditions.
By the way, in ranging years, did you back test if we take partial profits?
I think it is the only time it can work better than looking for full TP-1,2,3.
Yes, I'm trading live this month. I'm planning to rerun my backtest with taking partial profits. The issue with ranging periods is how do you know when they start and finish and therefore adjust the startegy according, ie the 1st 4 months of 2008 was ranging, May & Jun was OK, Jul was ranging, Aug & Sep was OK then 2 big trending months and Dec back to ranging.

With different market conditions, I think require a couple of different strategies as tools to allow diverification. Scalping for a few pips on a daily basis would work for a ranging market in combination with this strategy for a trending market.

  • #2,690
  • Aug 27, 2009 11:35am Aug 27, 2009 11:35am
Quoting shiko
Danno, some misunderstanding?

You mentioned $10 000 account and risking 1-2% per trade. so, how is it possible to trade $18 per pip?
Did you mean $1.8 pr pip? $18 is for $100 000 account. with average box of 160 pips pip size actually would be $0.7 to $1.4 per pip.
I mean once compounded to a bal of $182K you would be trading $18/pip assuming 100 avg pip range.
  • #2,691
  • Aug 27, 2009 11:41am Aug 27, 2009 11:41am
Quoting danno96
Yes, I'm trading live this month....

It is already higher risk... while you know results from this strategy you cannot say you know how successful your scalping will be...Scapling is noise. You actually can lose whatever you earn on this strategy. what I think is partial profits and moving stop to BE earlier. say after 50 pips in profit to protect against losses. I back tested this strategy with only one modification since January 1. once 50 pips in profit stop to BE. return was lower, but we had only 4 losing weeks out of 33.
By the way, this trad emanagment took was proposed for similar break out system to deal with ranging market condition and exactly for G/J.
  • #2,692
  • Aug 27, 2009 11:44am Aug 27, 2009 11:44am
I see, you mean compounding, certainly., if we up in a month, we up our pip size accordingly or set it down if we are in loss.
This system is beautiful.
Van Tharp rightfully told that trading success it is 90% psychological factor. It is the strength to follow the system which has positive expectations.
When you are losing 1% with this system, I personally have no emotions whatsoever.
But when you are losing 1% with scalping it is a different story
  • #2,693
  • Aug 27, 2009 11:47am Aug 27, 2009 11:47am
Quoting shiko
It is already higher risk... while you know results from this strategy you cannot say you know how successful your scalping will be...Scapling is noise. You actually can lose whatever you earn on this strategy. what I think is partial profits and moving stop to BE earlier. say after 50 pips in profit to protect against losses. I back tested this strategy with only one modification since January 1. once 50 pips in profit stop to BE. return was lower, but we had only 4 losing weeks out of 33.
By the way, this trad emanagment took was proposed for...

This year is not good to test as it is not ranging. Try and back test this in 2005 (752 pips for the whole year) and 2002 (562 pips for the whole year) to see if it improve the performance.

  • #2,694
  • Aug 27, 2009 11:53am Aug 27, 2009 11:53am
Quoting danno96
This year is not good to test as it is not ranging. Try and back test this in 2005 (752 pips for the whole year) and 2002 (562 pips for the whole year) to see if it improve the performance.


I will do it. I will back test 2005.
2 ways: set BE after say 20-50 pips depending upon what volatility was then , without and with taking partial profit.

With your great back testing results, I see no reason to trade anything else.
Why to risk something that is actually a noise?
Moreover, over time we can become increasingly proficient with this system...
  • #2,695
  • Aug 27, 2009 11:58am Aug 27, 2009 11:58am
Quoting danno96
This year is not good to test as it is not ranging. Try and back test this in 2005 (752 pips for the whole year) and 2002 (562 pips for the whole year) to see if it improve the performance.


Also, I am quite sure those years boxes were small. probably 60-100 pips. so, risking 1-2% per trade. pip size would be much bigger. Hence, return would be not that bad...In bad years funds lose money. This system is just earns less. It is great example.
  • #2,696
  • Aug 27, 2009 12:00pm Aug 27, 2009 12:00pm
Damn, I cannot test 2005. I am scrolling it manually on FXDD MT4 and it goes back only to 2006.
  • #2,697
  • Aug 27, 2009 12:08pm Aug 27, 2009 12:08pm
Quoting shiko
Damn, I cannot test 2005. I am scrolling it manually on FXDD MT4 and it goes back only to 2006.

You can go to history centre under Tool and download the require data.
  • #2,698
  • Aug 27, 2009 12:11pm Aug 27, 2009 12:11pm
easy to say dont be greedy.. enter 2lots, set ur 1st TP say 100pips,close half at it, shift SL to BE.. let the rest run.. all u know,1lot of 100pips is secure..
  • #2,699
  • Edited 12:55pm Aug 27, 2009 12:30pm | Edited 12:55pm
I'm sorry everyone, but I have violated the rules apparently by having a commercial intent (even though clearly stated that I never had a commercial intent within Forex Factory and there is a commercial section, kinda catch 22) and therefor can no longer post anything. I'm new here, and I'm being pinched out by the big man in less time that it took me to start to get to know some of you.

However, this will be my last post, I am going back over all threads and removing all of my prior post.

Sorry everyone.


Pharoah
  • #2,700
  • Aug 27, 2009 12:45pm Aug 27, 2009 12:45pm
hi all

will you still be placing trades sunday/monday due to the UK bank holiday?

fab system!

regards,
scattydiva
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