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Silent Service Method

  • #4,881
  • Aug 27, 2009 1:21am Aug 27, 2009 1:21am
Quoting Soca
Now I've been living in the Pacific NorthWest (USA) for years, in Seattle, which is virtually surrounded by mountain ranges. So one evening, while watching the sunset on Lake Washington, my girlfriend & I were at a park eating dinner together. At-some-point I remember looking West to the Olympic mountains in the distance, then during a break in conversation, as if on automatic began drawing TLs with my mind's eye and using my finger to point them out.
That's awesome ...

Quoting Soca
(I later recalled someone with an avatar on FF w/a red trendline off a mountain peak. I thought that was cool.)
He/She is ak4x http://www.forexfactory.com/member.php?u=45026. It is still one of the best images on the user account page for me.


Stefan.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #4,882
  • Aug 27, 2009 1:26am Aug 27, 2009 1:26am
Quoting clockwork71
Also, if you reach the top of a trend line on the mountain, what does that tell you to short? Lumber futures?
There are good readings from Pring and Nison with "Pring on trunks" and "Advanced technical analysis with lumbersticks".

Ok, back to business.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #4,883
  • Edited 3:16am Aug 27, 2009 3:02am | Edited 3:16am
Hi.

Another morning opening the charts for the 8am schedule. I am currently managing 3 open trades which I want to share with you.

AUDCAD - Day #22

This one has 2 reasons to close but 6 to stay in and participate on the long side. The overall shape of the recent bars give me the assumption of more bullish momentum which waits to break the fences. This reasons KEEP ME IN but would not make me place a trade here and now.

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EURGBP - Day #15

The trendline seems to be broken and I am watching now what happens with the 0.88. I see this one as countertrend on the daily chart and normally would take profit as soon as PA around 0.88 shows any trouble but the 50% fib retrace level seems to be broken. In the past the price found good support around this level so I am tending to stay in.

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GBPUSD - Day #12

This type of opportunities do not happen every day so my overall plan on this one is to stay in as long as possible and that's why my stop is currently 300 pips behind. From such a trade I plan (don't expect) to breakeven or taking a thousand pips. The pinbar at this location is traded with a target of 300 pips, of course it can happen to get 300 pips, but I DO NOT PLAN it for 300 pips. The next time I would lock in some profits is at break of 38.2%/1.6000 and confirmation as resistance.

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Stefan.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #4,884
  • Edited 7:10am Aug 27, 2009 6:37am | Edited 7:10am
Quoting whitegoodman
Did you short when it touched the top of the trendline?
Yeah, lucky for me 'twas a double-top ... she wasn't that impressed though

Quoting clockwork71
Also, if you reach the top of a trend line on the mountain, what does that tell you to short? Lumber futures?
I like it, and how about inventing a "Water" futures contract while we're at it

Quoting stefx
There are good readings from Pring and Nison with "Pring on trunks" and "Advanced technical analysis with lumbersticks".
Got me there I agree, better back to business and am looking forward to study your charts today!
  • #4,885
  • Aug 27, 2009 8:00am Aug 27, 2009 8:00am
Looking at this one today. Might be good for a buck or two.
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  • #4,886
  • Aug 27, 2009 10:40am Aug 27, 2009 10:40am
That spike down on usdcad took me out by 4 pips, before it jumped back up again.
I moved my stop too quickly...
And i knew it...
It'll make 1.10 or more now.
  • #4,887
  • Aug 27, 2009 12:05pm Aug 27, 2009 12:05pm
Quoting jicjoc
That spike down on usdcad took me out by 4 pips, before it jumped back up again.
I moved my stop too quickly...
And i knew it...
It'll make 1.10 or more now.
Murphy's Law.
  • #4,888
  • Aug 27, 2009 1:40pm Aug 27, 2009 1:40pm
...or why location is more important than PB shapes.
Attached Image
Trading: the skill of avoiding trades
  • #4,889
  • Aug 27, 2009 2:31pm Aug 27, 2009 2:31pm
Risky trade with Natural Gas, because it is countertrend, but like the way the bears are getting exhausted at the weekly TL...
First target 3.3, @ FIB 38
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Trading: the skill of avoiding trades
  • #4,890
  • Aug 27, 2009 2:50pm Aug 27, 2009 2:50pm
Update on GBP.CHF

A bullish pinbar gets smashed through - this means something if you think about it. And yes, I am still short, and added some along the way as well. I am looking to sell rallies until told by the market to do otherwise.
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  • #4,891
  • Aug 27, 2009 4:26pm Aug 27, 2009 4:26pm
Any comments on USDCAD...I'm thinking that although it wants to bounce at 1.08...there is no real indication of strength at the moment.

Weekly - last week was a bearish engulfing, but if you take the two previous weeks, that's a pinbar that would make sense with a little followthru. 1.618 Fib extension of the swing high and low of May-July is 1.02, a nice target for a sell, with a stop just above 1.10. Or if you apply the fibs slightly different, taking into account the low of August....then the fib extension is just under 1.00, another nice target.

Daily - last two days (prior to today) are a bearish pinbar....with some confirmation this makes sense

H4 - Had trouble at 1.10....took a sniff and then tumbled

Still not short, but paying attention with a bias to sell.

Cheers
CanuckCT
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  • #4,892
  • Aug 27, 2009 4:57pm Aug 27, 2009 4:57pm
Quoting CanuckCT
Any comments on USDCAD...I'm thinking that although it wants to bounce at 1.08...there is no real indication of strength at the moment.

Weekly - last week was a bearish engulfing, but if you take the two previous weeks, that's a pinbar that would make sense with a little followthru. 1.618 Fib extension of the swing high and low of May-July is 1.02, a nice target for a sell, with a stop just above 1.10. Or if you apply the fibs slightly different, taking into account the low of August....then the fib extension is just under 1.00, another nice...

I see a lot of support underneath the 1.08 area. I think this is why it's getting a little "muddy" at the moment. I am watching this pair as well, but to be honest - my bias is neutral. The pair likes to move quickly, then sit around and do nothing. I could be wrong, but by not being in the market at this moment in time (at least on this pair) - I am not going to get hurt one way or another.

Chris
  • #4,893
  • Aug 27, 2009 5:12pm Aug 27, 2009 5:12pm
When we hit serious areas like we just did in this pair, (GBP.CHF) it is in these times that perhaps we make our biggest profits or losses. In my estimation, times like this can make or break your year. For the first few months I traded Price Action, I would look at these dead obvious spots on a chart and say, "Damn, it's too bad I didn't know this stuff back then when we were at a serious point on the chart!". Ok, so I knew, and then was still chicken about it. Much like everything else in trading - it all changes when you finally say "Enough! I am sick of missing the move!" Or something like that.....

Anyone remember about 2 years ago when AUD/USD went through .8000 finally? I got about 60 pips on that break out. Funny now that I think about it.....I was so pissed at myself a few days later when I saw what I missed out on.

Really, there are only a few choices you have when a potentially big trade is going your way. Here's a few that I can think of:

 

  1. Get something like 100 pips in profit if you are lucky, and be grateful for it. Afterward, trying bitching about how only the "Big Guys" get a crack at 500 pip runs.
  2. You can sit on your hands, and hope it runs like hell. Keep your stops tight, and have them taken out, only to be proven right over time. Afterward, you can bitch about trading in general, and come to understand it's a rigged game.
  3. You can sit on your hands AND give the trade a ton of room to run. If you are really lucky, you can get a massive run over the course of several months. I suspect that Stefen of this thread will be one of these people when he trades professionally.
  4. You can also create a "core position" and let it run, AND short smaller positions along with it when we rally, and fail - only to resume the original run again.
  5. You can let the market scare you enough to stay out of the trade altogether.


I am a fan of the core position idea. For example, if you have a full lot short....when you add, you can add something like a 15,000-20,000 order to enhance gains. This way, if you get taken out - it's not going to kill your first position and make all of this a loss. That would be horrible if it happened.

If you add, and all of your order gets taken out, it's true it takes a little off the table, but by the time that happens......hopefully you will have made a massive profit......

The question is this: "Do you have the mindset to do this?"

If you are wrong on a trade like this, it's just another loss. Nothing to worry about.

Chris

  • #4,894
  • Aug 27, 2009 5:19pm Aug 27, 2009 5:19pm
Quoting clockwork71
When we hit serious areas like we just did in this pair, (GBP.CHF) it is in these times that perhaps we make our biggest profits or losses. In my estimation, times like this can make or break your year. For the first few months I traded Price Action, I would look at these dead obvious spots on a chart and say, "Damn, it's too bad I didn't know this stuff back then when we were at a serious point on the chart!". Ok, so I knew, and then was still chicken about it. Much like everything else in trading - it all changes when you finally say "Enough!...
Chris, I don't post often, but I read your thread daily and I just want to say thanks for all the bits of info you have been shelling out lately. I've copied and pasted a bunch of stuff from you in the past few weeks that have answered quite a few questions I have had. It's all going into a journal or word document for me to refer back to. Keep it up man! I'm definitely going to consider this last strategy you just mentioned. (core position and adding to it)

Jim
"Luck favors the prepared mind"
  • #4,895
  • Aug 27, 2009 5:21pm Aug 27, 2009 5:21pm
Quoting jpa0827
Chris, I don't post often, but I read your thread daily and I just want to say thanks for all the bits of info you have been shelling out lately. I've copied and pasted a bunch of stuff from you in the past few weeks that have answered quite a few questions I have had. It's all going into a journal or word document for me to refer back to. Keep it up man! I'm definitely going to consider this last strategy you just mentioned. (core position and adding to it)

Jim

Just be sure I am not posting whilst sitting on a bar stool, and all should be fine. LOL

I just saw you are from Cleveland.....I'm in Columbus.

Thanks for your response Jim!
  • #4,896
  • Aug 27, 2009 8:11pm Aug 27, 2009 8:11pm
Hey CW:

Can you explain where you got in on GBB/CHF? What did the price action look like? Was it on Monday's daily overbar?

Another question: how do you play Sunday bars? For example on this pair, the Sunday bar was engulfed by the next bar (Monday). I am on Interbank and they always provide measly sunday bars which measure about 2 hours of price action. How do you treat those?

Thanks, as always.

CW: when you were starting out, as I am, did you ever wonder why you haven't gotten in a position for a while. I have not entered a position this month basically. Maybe it is because I am being too much of a stickler on s/r levels (only using round numbers, no 5s involved) simply because my charts looked sloppy with all those lines. If I am sounding crazy here, let me know, I can take it! starting to go crazy from not being in a position....

Thanks!
  • #4,897
  • Aug 27, 2009 8:14pm Aug 27, 2009 8:14pm
Quoting clockwork71
Just be sure I am not posting whilst sitting on a bar stool, and all should be fine. LOL

I just saw you are from Cleveland.....I'm in Columbus.

Thanks for your response Jim!
It's a small world man! These forex threads amaze me, because I could be talking to someone from the same state and then someone else from across the globe is in on the same conversation. It is really cool when you think about it.

Anyway, looking forward to your future trading ideas and tips. By the way, you can throw a few messages in while you're at the bar. It will definitely add some comedy lol.

have a good one!
"Luck favors the prepared mind"
  • #4,898
  • Aug 27, 2009 8:47pm Aug 27, 2009 8:47pm
How do you get your labtop on the pool table I gotta know you can only sit so long at the bar.

Here is the euro I just entered I see that the bulls seem to be losing strength and should let this one come on down we will see
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  • #4,899
  • Aug 27, 2009 9:34pm Aug 27, 2009 9:34pm
Quoting drebin
Hey CW:

Can you explain where you got in on GBB/CHF? What did the price action look like? Was it on Monday's daily overbar?

Another question: how do you play Sunday bars? For example on this pair, the Sunday bar was engulfed by the next bar (Monday). I am on Interbank and they always provide measly sunday bars which measure about 2 hours of price action. How do you treat those?

Thanks, as always.

CW: when you were starting out, as I am, did you ever wonder why you haven't gotten in a position for a while. I have not entered a position this...
Don't worry, you have to be comfortable in a trade to take it. There's nothing wrong at all with being overly picky. The month of August tends to be the worst, with the exception of late December.
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  • #4,900
  • Aug 28, 2009 1:21am Aug 28, 2009 1:21am
Quoting CanuckCT
Any comments on USDCAD...I'm thinking that although it wants to bounce at 1.08...there is no real indication of strength at the moment.

Weekly - last week was a bearish engulfing, but if you take the two previous weeks, that's a pinbar that would make sense with a little followthru. 1.618 Fib extension of the swing high and low of May-July is 1.02, a nice target for a sell, with a stop just above 1.10. Or if you apply the fibs slightly different, taking into account the low of August....then the fib extension is just under 1.00, another nice...
Hi.

You also can look for the box and try to find a trade within. The 450 pips wide box is between the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the all time low to a local high. The lower boundary is at a minor daily PPZ and the 1.09 seems to be the box equilibrium. There are lots of indecision bars and two tradeable patterns within. Now price is again at the center range and could show an entry. I'm currently just experimenting with boxes and total new to this, so I might be wrong but just another point of view.

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Stefan.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
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