Hourly Fibonacci Method (Day Trading) | Page 13 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

What is the Differences between Fibonacci Fan and Fibonacci Arcs 15 replies

bo7a method... method for GBP/JPY 205 replies

Synergy Method For Scalpers and Scalpers Hourly Range Calculator (Based on TSR) 22 replies

what's Fibonacci method trading? 7 replies

"Bagovino Method" VS "Cornflower Hourly System" 16 replies

Attachments: Hourly Fibonacci Method (Day Trading)
Exit Attachments

Hourly Fibonacci Method (Day Trading)

  • #241
  • Aug 21, 2009 6:13am Aug 21, 2009 6:13am
Quoting Baby001
Good job Tunji!
Thanks Baby!
  • #242
  • Aug 24, 2009 3:25am Aug 24, 2009 3:25am
On the Daily chart (attached), we could see that price couldn’t sustain its steep downward move as it advanced toward the lower edge of the narrow channel; hence it reversed sharply to break above the upper edge of the channel – breaking above previous day’s highs in the process. Also, if we take a closer look at the Daily chart – precisely the previous two trading days’ candles (last week Thursday and Friday) – we would observe that the whole of Thursday’s price action occurred within Friday’s candle (price range), which resulted in an “engulfing-candle” formation. An engulfing candle at the end of a steep downward move such as this gives us a good probability that price is set to reverse its direction. Furthermore, Price-break above the engulfing-candle earlier today buttressed the possibility of further movement of price downward.

On the H4 chart (attached), price broke the most recent swing high @ 94.54 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That automatically shifted our bias in favor of an upward price move. The green horizontal line @ 93.41 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #243
  • Aug 25, 2009 5:40am Aug 25, 2009 5:40am
If you were able to identify the GBPUSD Short trade set-up and took the trade, that’s great. For unavoidable reasons, I wasn’t in the market at the time of price action. However, I’ll go ahead to give analysis of today’s bias based on higher time frame charts, and then explain the steps I would’ve taken so far in managing the Short trade.

On the Daily chart (attached), for days, price has been struggling around the upward trend-line: lots of indecision regarding whether to reverse upward or continue its movement downward. Currently, price has broken the previous day low downward; hence, we expect continuation of the downward move. However, the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.6274 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) is a major support level that we have to keep in mind.

On the H4 chart (attached), price broke the most recent swing low @ 1.6418 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustained our bias in favor of a downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 1.6622 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

On the Hourly chart (attached), price pattern was forming lower highs and lower lows; hence, drawing the Fibonacci tool using the most recent Hourly swing high @ 1.6427, and the temporary price-bottom @ 1.6339, we had potential price reversal areas around fibs. 61.8% ret. (1.6393) and 78.6% ret. (1.6408) levels. (Pls NOTE both retracement levels were supported by pivots, other fibs., and previous lows).
Initial Stop Loss was placed 2pips above the most recent Hourly swing high @ 1.6432 (broker’s spread included). Primary profit target @ 1.6317 (two pips above the fib. 127% ext.).

On The 15min chart (attached),with a clearer view of the Hourly price action, and based on my reward:risk ratio assessment, I would place my Limit Order in-between both fibs. 61.8% and 78.6% ret. levels – precisely @ 1.6400, which is just under a Daily pivot @ 1.6402. After the Limit Order was triggered @ 1.6400, and price reversed downward almost immediately – with the 15min engulfing-candle reversal formation at a confluence of resistance – it was a good opportunity to quickly turn the trade to a no-loss trade. With a 3-lot position, I would take profit on one lot @ 25-pip profit, and then adjust the Stop Loss for the remaining position to 12 pips above my Entry level (5 pips above the most recent 15min swing high @ 1.6407). That automatically would’ve made the trade a no-loss trade with a profit potential of 83 pips.
The next step would have been to identify an appropriate level where I could take profit on the second lot, as price has the tendency to turn upward as it moves further downward toward the price-bottom @ 1.6339.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD - 15min 250809.gif Size: 35 KB
Attached Images
  • #244
  • Aug 26, 2009 3:21am Aug 26, 2009 3:21am
On the Daily chart (attached), as anticipated, price continued its movement downward. The upward trend-line (that we’ve highlighted using the red broken line), around which price struggled for days, has been decisively broken downward. A more recent upward trend-line (that we’ve highlighted using the red solid line) is the new area price is attempting to break downward. Also, as observed yesterday, the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.6274 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) is a major support level that we are still waiting for price to break downward to boost our downward bias. In all, current price pattern seems to favor a downward move, but the discussed obstacles to this downward move should not be disregarded.

On the H4 chart (attached), we have a clearer view of price action around the more recent upward trend-line that we discussed earlier on the Daily chart: we could see the trend-line is already acting as a resistance area on the H4 chart as price’s attempt to break above it was rejected. The swing low @ 1.6418 (that we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line), which price broke below on Monday, has remained the most recent swing low since last week Friday. That automatically sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 1.6443 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #245
  • Edited 2:31pm Aug 26, 2009 1:55pm | Edited 2:31pm
Hi Tunji,

Thank you for sharing your very detailed and accurate analysis with us. Your strategy is clean, clear, simple and refreshing. Even though other threads on FF have Fibonacci strategies, your thorough analysis is exceptionally informative.

I use Fibonacci's in a similar way and it flows in with my daily top down analysis. I identify direction using daily and 4 hour chart, and apply fibs on 1 hour chart in the direction of the overall trend. I then go to the 15 minute chart where fibs are already placed (from 1 hour chart) and look for specific candlestick formations at the fib levels (.786, .618, or .50 prior to entry. The candlestick formations that I refer to are fractals or pin bars. My question relates to your entry. Do you look for a specific formation also or do you just place your limit order at the the fib level.

What is the frequency with which you find great setups across the 4 majors that you trade. Thank you and happy trading.

fxpilot
  • #246
  • Aug 26, 2009 7:26pm Aug 26, 2009 7:26pm
Quoting fxpilot
Hi Tunji,

Thank you for sharing your very detailed and accurate analysis with us. Your strategy is clean, clear, simple and refreshing. Even though other threads on FF have Fibonacci strategies, your thorough analysis is exceptionally informative.

I use Fibonacci's in a similar way and it flows in with my daily top down analysis. I identify direction using daily and 4 hour chart, and apply fibs on 1 hour chart in the direction of the overall trend. I then go to the 15 minute chart where fibs are already placed (from 1 hour chart) and look for...
Fxpilot, you’re very much welcome, and thanks for your kind words. As you said, I could see our approaches are very similar, and that’s great.

I use Limit Orders around a certain fib. level, as long as there are other pivots, previous highs/lows, and overlapping fibs supporting it. Such confluences of support/resistance levels are strong enough for me to believe the fib. level will hold – at least temporarily. I only use candle formations to manage my trade after the Limit Order has been triggered. I must say, as with other methods, it has its pros and cons.

The set-ups frequency, based on my observation, varies depending on the market environment. At times, on a currency pair, you might have at least a set-up per day throughout a whole week; other times, you might have just one set-up throughout the entire week. Also, as you probably know, except you trade “24/5” (round-the-clock) or you run a robot, you’ll definitely be missing some set-ups.

Again, thanks Fxpilot.
  • #247
  • Aug 27, 2009 2:18am Aug 27, 2009 2:18am
On the Daily chart (attached), again, as anticipated, price continued its movement downward. The “more recent” upward trend-line, which we observed yesterday as the new area price was attempting to break downward, has been decisively broken. Also, price has broken the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.6274 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. These new signs – in addition to the still-valid negative MACD Divergence and higher time frames’ price actions that we discussed earlier this month – are simply telling us the bears are in control. However, the previous day low @ 1.6158 (not highlighted on this Daily chart to avoid clustering) is another level we might like to keep in mind as a potential support area. Price-break below the 1.6158 level is a good sign that price is ready to continue its downward move.

On the H4 chart (attached), the swing low @ 1.6418 (that we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line), which price broke below on Monday, still remains the most recent swing low. That automatically sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. The previous day low @ 1.6158 (that we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line), which we discussed on the Daily chart, is shown on this H4 chart. Please let’s keep the level in mind. The white horizontal line @ 1.6443 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #248
  • Aug 27, 2009 3:18am Aug 27, 2009 3:18am
Quoting Tunji
Fxpilot, you’re very much welcome, and thanks for your kind words. As you said, I could see our approaches are very similar, and that’s great.

[font=Arial]I use Limit Orders around a certain fib. level, as long as there are other pivots, previous highs/lows, and overlapping fibs supporting it. Such confluences of support/resistance levels are strong enough for me to believe the fib. level will hold – at least temporarily. I only use candle formations to manage my trade after the Limit Order has been triggered. I must say, as...
Hi Tunji,

Thank you for your kind response. I look forward to learning from you and participating in this thread.

fxpilot
  • #249
  • Aug 27, 2009 4:23am Aug 27, 2009 4:23am
Hi Tunji,

I am waiting for the retrace on GBPUSD to sell in accordance with your analysis. I am also looking at EURUSD as it seems as if it may present a better opportunity. Currently price has retraced to 50% fib level, which is also in line with daily pivot point, a price pivot zone and a second test of the sessions high. Selling at 1.4265. I would appreciate your feedback. Thank you.

fxpilot
  • #250
  • Edited 5:54am Aug 27, 2009 5:28am | Edited 5:54am
Quoting fxpilot
Hi Tunji,

I am waiting for the retrace on GBPUSD to sell in accordance with your analysis. I am also looking at EURUSD as it seems as if it may present a better opportunity. Currently price has retraced to 50% fib level, which is also in line with daily pivot point, a price pivot zone and a second test of the sessions high. Selling at 1.4265. I would appreciate your feedback. Thank you.

fxpilot
Hi Fxpilot, if you’re able to attach your charts in subsequent posts, that’ll be great. It’ll help everyone have a better understanding of your analysis.
However, I think I have an idea of what you’re saying. Looking at my EURUSD Hourly chart (attached), price has broken the most recent Hourly swing high @ 1.4252 (highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. I determine a swing high by a candle having two lower candles on either side. Since I always use the most recent Hourly swing high/low to draw my fibs., the EURUSD pair is currently in no-trade zone; although the bias – based on the H4 chart – is still bearish.

However, please note there are many ways to analyze price movement, so, for the fact that this method is currently not giving the green light to short the euro doesn’t mean other methods are doing same.
Attached Image
  • #251
  • Aug 27, 2009 6:02am Aug 27, 2009 6:02am
Hi Tunji,

Thank you for your response. I will try to post charts in the future. Your are correct re. no mans land. I had only considered the overall trend which is still bearish. I will refine my analysis in accordance with your suggestion. By respecting the swing points on 1 hour chart also, trade success probability can only increase. Great point.

fxpilot
  • #252
  • Edited 7:52am Aug 27, 2009 7:47am | Edited 7:52am
Quoting fxpilot
Hi Tunji,

Thank you for your response. I will try to post charts in the future. Your are correct re. no mans land. I had only considered the overall trend which is still bearish. I will refine my analysis in accordance with your suggestion. By respecting the swing points on 1 hour chart also, trade success probability can only increase. Great point.

fxpilot
Now, the coast is clear to seek a GBPUSD Short trade set-up. Price just breached the most recent Hourly swing low @ 1.6158, which is also the previous day low (GBPUSD Hourly chart attached). The retracement might happen, and it might not. Besides, the resistance confluence must be in place (pivots, previous high/low, overlapping fibs.). Personally, because of my trading hours, if a suitable retracement doesn’t happen early, I might not be in the market to take the trade; lots of nuances to deal with.
The EURUSD is also coming up: most recent swing low already broken downward, but there’s yet to be an opportunity to draw overlapping fibs.
Attached Image
  • #253
  • Edited Aug 28, 2009 3:09am Aug 27, 2009 10:08am | Edited Aug 28, 2009 3:09am
The GBPUSD Short trade didn’t work out, but with proper money management, there’s always opportunity to be in another trade.
It’s also good to know that we were protected from taking a EURUSD Short trade.
  • #254
  • Aug 28, 2009 3:17am Aug 28, 2009 3:17am
On the Daily chart (attached), yesterday, the Swissy (as well as the Euro and Cable) rallied against the Dollar. As a result, some charts’ formations were altered. Studying the USDCHF Daily chart, we would observe that price dashed downward to break a critical support level – the most recent Daily low @ 1.0551 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. Price-break below this level gives a good sign that the bears might currently be in control. However, as discussed on last week Thursday, the 1.0600 level is a major support area that has remained very critical since May 2008 (please refer to your Weekly and Monthly charts); hence, we should be very careful as the bears might be contending with some fierce bulls around this level. Although, price is currently below 1.0600, personally, I believe price has to close decisively below the entire 1.0600 area to ascertain the strength of the Swissy. In all, the Daily chart – from a day trade perspective – currently leans toward downward price movement.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.0579 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. This automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move. The bulls’ strength – as discussed on the Daily chart – could also be observed on the H4 chart as price sharply pierced below the most recent swing low, but was forced to close above it. However, based on this method’s parameters, once a most recent H4 swing low is broken, our bias shifts in favor of the bears. The white horizontal line @ 1.0702 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #255
  • Edited 10:00am Aug 28, 2009 9:45am | Edited 10:00am
If you were able to identify the GBPUSD Long trade set-up and took the trade, that’s great. I took it, and, currently, I’m still in it. It was slightly nerve-racking as price surged downward toward the initial Stop Loss before it reversed just 5 pips to the Stop. I’ll explain the steps I’ve taken so far in managing the trade.

Please NOTE that the Daily chart (attached) isn’t really supporting a Long trade as price is currently forming lower highs and lows; though, a retracement is occurring, price is testing the upward trend-line – a potential resistance area. More conservative traders would have refrained from this trade. Personally, what I did was to reduce my risk. The H4 chart, however, supports a Long trade.

On the Hourly chart (attached), price pattern was forming higher highs and higher lows; hence, I drew the Fibonacci tool using the most recent Hourly swing low @ 1.6261, and the temporary price-top @ 1.6380, and then identified an area around the fib. 78.6% ret. level as a potential price reversal area to place my Limit Order (Pls NOTE the 78.6% ret. level was supported by pivots, other fibs., and previous highs).
Initial Stop Loss was placed 2pips below the most recent Hourly swing low @ 1.6259 (broker’s spread included). Primary profit target @ 1.6411 (two pips below the fib. 127% ext.).

On The 15min chart (attached), after the Limit Order was triggered @ 1.6294, price continued downward – almost stopping me out, but then reversed sharply. Afterward, as price moved almost 30 pips in my favor, and struggling to stay above a Weekly pivot @ 1.6312, keeping the dissenting Daily chart in mind, I decided to move my Stop Loss to break-even.
As price moved further upward, I exited one out of two lots @ 31-pip profit (precisely 1.6325). With that, the trade is already profitable. The profit target for the second lot is 1.6411 (117pip profit). Further Stop Loss adjustments would be based on new Hourly swing lows.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD - 15min 280809.gif Size: 37 KB
Attached Images
  • #256
  • Aug 31, 2009 1:56am Aug 31, 2009 1:56am
omoo naija, ao far now?sincerely i am always happy when i see nigerians making wave, i have always popped in to your thread once in a while but i just need to say...e ku ise o.

i use almost same style of trading as you do except that i consider price action at support and resistance and i also use the pivots to making trading decisions with fibonacci retracements.

anyway, i will always try to drop a line and for me..i trade only cable and eurusd.

where in nigeria are you? i am in the south west,abeokuta to be precise.

anyway, i wish you green pips trading this week.
  • #257
  • Edited 4:13am Aug 31, 2009 4:03am | Edited 4:13am
On the Daily chart (attached), we could see that the USDJPY pair has been in downward channel formation since the second week of this month, and currently, traders still seem comfortable with the formation. After several days of hugging the upper edge of the channel, price is probably ready to now test its lower edge. There seems to be enough room for price to continue its southward journey before encountering a potential major support – the Weekly chart most recent swing low @ 91.70 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line). The strength of the 91.70 level is buttressed by the channel formation as we would observe that the lower edge of the channel – a potential reversal area in itself – might coincide with the 91.70 support to form a support confluence if price eventually travelled down that far. In all, the current price behavior is good enough to sustain our bias for a downward price move – from a day trade perspective.
On the H4 chart (attached), yesterday, price broke the most recent swing low @ 93.20 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 94.06 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #258
  • Aug 31, 2009 5:19pm Aug 31, 2009 5:19pm
Quoting bjpumping
omoo naija, ao far now?sincerely i am always happy when i see nigerians making wave, i have always popped in to your thread once in a while but i just need to say...e ku ise o.

i use almost same style of trading as you do except that i consider price action at support and resistance and i also use the pivots to making trading decisions with fibonacci retracements.

anyway, i will always try to drop a line and for me..i trade only cable and eurusd.

where in nigeria are you? i am in the south west,abeokuta to be precise.

anyway, i wish you...
Hello Bjpumping, ese gan o . Thanks for your kind words, and it’s so nice to know we employ similar approaches. You’re always welcome to drop a line.
I’m also in the south west: I’ll always appreciate your email if you use one.

I wish you and everyone a successful September.
  • #259
  • Sep 1, 2009 3:06am Sep 1, 2009 3:06am
On the Daily chart (attached), as we observed almost throughout the latter part of last month, price is still hovering within the region of the 1.0600 level – a very major support level. Price has broken the previous day low @ 1.0553 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) downward. This shows that the bears are a somewhat ready to push price further downward – at least from a day-trade perspective. However, except for very aggressive traders, the coast is still very unclear as the entire area where price has been dwelling for days, as earlier said, is a very strong support area. Moderately aggressive traders that are prepared to go ahead and place trades might consider reducing their risk.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing low, which also happens to be the previous day low @ 1.0553 (that we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line), downward. That price action automatically shifted our bias in favor of a downward price move. Again, please be very conscious of the fact that price is within a major support area; hence downward pressure might be limited. The white horizontal line @ 1.0634 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #260
  • Sep 1, 2009 3:50am Sep 1, 2009 3:50am
Wish you all guys a happy pipfull month.

Well done Tunji for your detailed postings. Am sure more traders are finding the thread more useful and pipful now.

Eku ise..
God's Love For You Is Sure Never You Doubt It
0 traders viewing now