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4H Box Breakout

  • #2,641
  • Aug 27, 2009 4:20am Aug 27, 2009 4:20am
this ... the time thing...has been asked time and again.Not just on this thread...its always a huge problem!
I spreadbet so dont use the normal platforms...so all I did is backtest what i understood on my platform and found what worked.- yep takes effort...sorry for the sarcs
frankly not sure time is that critical anyway.
all you are doing with the 4hr box is making sure that when a move is made it is significant and not just noise/stop hunting.thats why you have the buffer. Test and alter the buffer and you have a system that works .
so you miss 10 or 20 pips...gbp/yen is so volitile I dont care that i miss a few pips so long as my win/loss ratio is good
my point
never mind copying exactly someone else...take the idea ...find what works ...adaptfor you and start making money.
  • #2,642
  • Aug 27, 2009 4:34am Aug 27, 2009 4:34am
feel I need to soften the last post by me...
I feel way too many people are looking for a magic system...they copy and they think they will make money.
the holy grail.
all i can say ive not found it- so dont think it exists -been trading a few years now....you really dont want to know
Ive devloped systems and programmed...looked for robots etc etc
I am now at simple support and resistance...no indicators...and
Im making money!
have to admit it has cost me a lot in hard cash while learning the hard way
and i also miss a lot of clear ( in retro) profits.
but I am making money
to me thats what counts
get consistant and you can always ....scale up
anyway Im not here to knock anyone but there is solid advice to be had in fores factory amongst all the "noise"
I found jackos house, no brainer, and out side sam seiden to make a lot of sense.but i am sure there are quite a few others that deliver the goods.
  • #2,643
  • Edited 12:41pm Aug 27, 2009 4:55am | Edited 12:41pm
Removed
  • #2,644
  • Aug 27, 2009 5:08am Aug 27, 2009 5:08am
Quoting Freako
I've seen breakout strategies for daily and weekly. I've never seen one like the one i'm about to present.

DRAW a box connecting the high of the first 4hr candle(00:00) of the week with the low along with a buffer of 20 pips on each side.
The week starts at the open of the Australian session.
If I had a penny for every time someone has asked which candle it is..i wouldn't need to trade forex to make money. For the next person who is going to ask, follow these instructions.
Download an FXDD platform. Press Ctrl+y on a 4hr chart. Lines will magically...

Exactly, guys are going to far here with daily break outs, multiple positions.
One thing is to make stop loss smaller or move to BE earlier and another thing changing time frames and adding more positions and starting using some indicators where they are not needed. It is a path to ruin.
System works, what else do you need? just follow it.
  • #2,645
  • Aug 27, 2009 5:11am Aug 27, 2009 5:11am
Thanks to all people here

Only one question - is it good on GBPUSD... I try a little and looks very good... but indi won't work .. can you help?

Barbara
  • #2,646
  • Aug 27, 2009 5:13am Aug 27, 2009 5:13am
I need to say I am a little bit upset about being stopped out after seeing TP3 with short trade.
But there is nothing to change, things happen.

I will be frank, it is the first time ever I am letting stops been hit and letting profits run before taking them too early. could have taken profit at TP1.5 but I understand the premise behind this system. Profits must run or I will not be profitable in the long run. Practically, I have managed to set my mind into new mold thanks to Ace and this system.
  • #2,647
  • Aug 27, 2009 5:14am Aug 27, 2009 5:14am
Quoting barbara
Thanks to all people here

Only one question - is it good on GBPUSD... I try a little and looks very good... but indi won't work .. can you help?

Barbara
It is OK for G/U. But it is much better with G/J. I was thinking of trading few pairs, but why? If G/J is the best, I will stay with it.
I back tested from January 1, 2009 to now. G/J return was 34% and G/U was only 20%.
  • #2,648
  • Edited 12:31pm Aug 27, 2009 5:15am | Edited 12:31pm
Removed
  • #2,649
  • Aug 27, 2009 5:24am Aug 27, 2009 5:24am
Quoting Pharoah
That would defeat the purpose of this thread, we all know the system works, this thread is now how to improve the system. It can be done, and there are alot of really good idea's flowing here.

Here's a question, why did we improve the wheel when we had wheel shaped stones? Because we could make it safer and more beneficial. In our case here, we're making it less risky, and more profitable. Who doesn't want that?


Exactly, but it should be done like trailing stop of yours, some small changes in trade management to have options in ranging markets, letting profits run better and so forth, but the core should stay intact.
Also, as I see it, it is intra week strategy, no trades should be left over the weekend. Hence, there is a reasonable limit of letting profits run. We should not get greedy too.
  • #2,650
  • Edited 12:32pm Aug 27, 2009 5:28am | Edited 12:32pm
Removed
  • #2,651
  • Aug 27, 2009 5:34am Aug 27, 2009 5:34am
we should remember that the best tank of WWII was T-34. Soviet tank. It was simple, dependable and robust. German tanks like Tiger and Panther were more sophisticated but they lost.
Keep things simple. Less chances for something to go wrong. The more the complex the system the more things can go wrong.
  • #2,652
  • Aug 27, 2009 5:50am Aug 27, 2009 5:50am
Quoting 11andy11
ok the easiest way to figure it out is to get the fxdd demo and then plot the box on your charts once it sets up http://www.fxdd.com/en/trading-softw...omparison.html....
thank you for ur help andy.. appreciate that..
  • #2,653
  • Aug 27, 2009 5:52am Aug 27, 2009 5:52am
Quoting yen44x
As far as I can figure, Freako (and that's not very far), if the candle begins at 2100 GMT time, and you're gmt+8, that means the candle (for you) opens on Monday at 5 a.m. your time and closes at 9 a.m.

Check the candle on FXDD. Once you see a new candle forming, you'll know the first 4-hour candle has ended and you can set your TP's.
yup.. i tried that.. thanx.. i confirm the open time is 1715hrs on my platform.. im sticking to it.. thanx..
  • #2,654
  • Aug 27, 2009 6:06am Aug 27, 2009 6:06am
Hi All,

I've complete my back testing results back to 2002. Thank Ace's for this simple and stress free strategy. I try to keep it as simple as possible based on ACE's original approach with minor variations to meet my own trading needs. Like what Mark Douglas say in his book "Trading in the Zone". You needs to believe in your trading edge and follow your plan. My backtesting proof to me that this system work and if I stick to the plan I'll be rewarded.

Keep it simple, believe in the system, stick to the plan and you'll be rewarded.

Attached is my backtesting results

Attached File(s)
File Type: xls ACE 4Hr Breakout Strategy Back Testing.xls   189 KB | 1,665 downloads
  • #2,655
  • Aug 27, 2009 6:20am Aug 27, 2009 6:20am
Quoting shiko
Exactly, but it should be done like trailing stop of yours, some small changes in trade management to have options in ranging markets, letting profits run better and so forth, but the core should stay intact.
Also, as I see it, it is intra week strategy, no trades should be left over the weekend. Hence, there is a reasonable limit of letting profits run. We should not get greedy too.
I think one of the positive tweaks to this system is to trade two positions. When TP1 is hit close 1 position and bank the profits. Set the remaining position to BE + 10 or 20 (whatever suits you) and let it run according to the original rules.


Sandy
  • #2,656
  • Aug 27, 2009 6:28am Aug 27, 2009 6:28am
Quoting Pharoah
Hi everyone, I've just done a backtest on GJ from Jan 26 2009 to today using an updated version of Ronald Rayguns EA for this system. It has been made to include a Beta version of my custom Trailing Stop system (The documented version has become much more in depth) and I thought I would share the results with you all.

I'm currently awaiting Ronalds approval to post the updated EA as he was kind enough to do it for free.

Bars in test 1370
Ticks modelled 8940584
Modelling quality 44.00%
Mismatched charts errors 2
Initial deposit 5000.00
Total...
The ea looks interesting. Two things stand out. Modeling quality of 44%? I know there are sometimes good reasons to have less than 100% but curious why so low.

The other is that maximum consecutive losses were 6 but the money loss was only -$1552 compared to max wins of 3 = +$6053. This shows not only good money mgt but the overall R:R advantage of Ace's system.

Sandy
  • #2,657
  • Aug 27, 2009 6:29am Aug 27, 2009 6:29am
Quoting danno96
Attached is my backtesting results

Thank-you very much danno96 for sharing this very well-presented research.



J.
  • #2,658
  • Aug 27, 2009 6:45am Aug 27, 2009 6:45am
Quoting danno96
Hi All,

I've complete my back testing results back to 2002. Thank Ace's for this simple and stress free strategy. I try to keep it as simple as possible based on ACE's original approach with minor variations to meet my own trading needs. Like what Mark Douglas say in his book "Trading in the Zone". You needs to believe in your trading edge and follow your plan. My backtesting proof to me that this system work and if I stick to the plan I'll be rewarded.

Keep it simple, believe in the system, stick to the plan and you'll be rewarded.

Attached...

Thank you Danno
Great job!
  • #2,659
  • Edited 12:31pm Aug 27, 2009 7:08am | Edited 12:31pm
Removed
  • #2,660
  • Aug 27, 2009 7:24am Aug 27, 2009 7:24am
Quoting Pharoah
I'm not 100% sure the exact reason on the modeling quality.

I'm actually risking 8% of the account every time (which is well above normal risk when considering the size of the account). But the reason the money management works so well is because of the system I have devised that blends so well with this breakout system.
Good point. The profits are maximized by the MA strategy you developed.

Thanks Pharoah.

Sandy
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