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James16+Rayanmcd(Jan kone) and ME 7 replies

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Jankone M5 thread

  • #981
  • Aug 26, 2009 12:05am Aug 26, 2009 12:05am
Quoting artov
Thanks for posting the question.........
Allright, I will ignore the fact that it was a CT winner (no div though) and focus solely on the "quality" of the pinbar since that is your question I understand.....
Second thing, It doesn't have a big wick/tail. A big wick is preferred because that shows a certain price area has been rejected. Especially with a nice trend movement prior to the pin I would like to see a big wick to convince me the trend is coming to an end......
imho, there was divergence on the RSI. i think the PB's high was near the previous highs, probably 1-5pips difference: price was flat (similar highs) while RSI showed bear.div.
in this particular case, price may not have shown clear rejection off the highs but it clearly shows there was no demand to push price convincingly above the previous highs & supply came in from the PB onwards.
  • #982
  • Aug 26, 2009 12:23am Aug 26, 2009 12:23am
Guys, Thank you all. We are driving to the station called 100.000 views and 1000 posts.

We make great thread!


I try to show you a way. who wants to be a winner (profitable trader) in here, I'm sure he will be.

I hope this material helps you.




I'm leaving for Spain.(vacation).48 hours later, see you all and make some good trades !

  • #983
  • Aug 26, 2009 1:38am Aug 26, 2009 1:38am
Jankone,
yes, good job, people.
considering this thread started only last April & only has <1000 posts (means we rarely posts since we are into A+ setups only), 100,000 views is a feat.

Jankone started it all. inspired by Ryanmcd.
have a happy, safe vacation
  • #984
  • Aug 26, 2009 3:54am Aug 26, 2009 3:54am
It's a great thread! Thanks for setting it up, I still remember the excitement I had the day it was set up.

Nice to see prominent members in here helping the trading community

Quoting Jankone
Guys, Thank you all. We are driving to the station called 100.000 views and 1000 posts.

We make great thread!


I try to show you a way. who wants to be a winner (profitable trader) in here, I'm sure he will be.

I hope this material helps you.




I'm leaving for Spain.(vacation).48 hours later, see you all and make some good trades !

  • #985
  • Aug 26, 2009 5:28am Aug 26, 2009 5:28am
Quoting supremeChaos
lacika, Jazflyer,
if u want to learn more about IPB, check the posts i've mentioned here. Ghous discussed it there.
.
There is no such a thing like inverted PB. If You invert a PB, that s still PB. It s just bullish looking PB at a strong res. where it can mean bounce retest. (or vice versa) The name IPB is a little unfortunate, acc. to my opinion.
But, THX for the answer, NL
  • #986
  • Aug 26, 2009 5:59am Aug 26, 2009 5:59am
Quote
There is no such a thing like inverted PB....The name IPB is a little unfortunate, acc. to my opinion.
lacika,
inverted PB's are traded differently, sort of why it's called "inverted".
You asked about it, we just answered your question.

to You, there is no such thing, NO problem. to others, there IS such a thing.
what works for us may not work for u & vice versa.

It's a bit harsh for u to post that way. the good thing about it is that u sort of categorically stated that it is only your opinion.

anyway, no worries, trade what u want/prefer.


Quote
If You invert a PB, that s still PB
btw, we don't invert a PB. "inverted" is just a coined term for it. we can't manipulate PA's shape. in Japanese candlestick terms, IPB is called a hanging man or inverted hammer, if i remember it correctly.
  • #987
  • Aug 26, 2009 7:12am Aug 26, 2009 7:12am
again ct . great pin bar, divergence, fast trade.

(for new guys - check how big is the pin bar and WHERE he is - swing low + with divergence)

If you will trade only 1 setup and +- 50% wins, with good money management, then you make money.
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  • #988
  • Aug 26, 2009 7:39am Aug 26, 2009 7:39am
Nice entry Jankone. The exit is the fun part.
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  • #989
  • Aug 26, 2009 7:59am Aug 26, 2009 7:59am
Quoting artov
Nice entry Jankone. The exit is the fun part.
Artov - You might want to add a 21 ema to your chart. You can use the 21 as a target for CT trades. Or s/r ... or hocus pocus ... or a dart board.
  • #990
  • Aug 26, 2009 9:21am Aug 26, 2009 9:21am
Quoting Jankone
again ct . great pin bar, divergence, fast trade.

(for new guys - check how big is the pin bar and WHERE he is - swing low + with divergence)

If you will trade only 1 setup and +- 50% wins, with good money management, then you make money.

Nice trade Jankone,

When taking this CT trade, did the size of the previous bar worry you at all? Kind of like catching a falling knife considering it's almost twice as big as the pin bar itself. Just wondering if that was a concern for you or not.
  • #991
  • Aug 26, 2009 9:24am Aug 26, 2009 9:24am
Nah, not a too big fan of lagging stuff. BB's are fine for me to check if the pinbar has pulled back enough, but other than that I tend to watch for PPZ's and PA.

Quoting trader_scott
Artov - You might want to add a 21 ema to your chart. You can use the 21 as a target for CT trades. Or s/r ... or hocus pocus ... or a dart board.
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  • #992
  • Aug 26, 2009 10:01am Aug 26, 2009 10:01am
Without div I'd be scared, but there's div. and you know it signals somethins. So with div and good pinbar is possible to catch falling knife.
but sure - sometimes, it's not 100 %



Quoting sir6
Nice trade Jankone,

When taking this CT trade, did the size of the previous bar worry you at all? Kind of like catching a falling knife considering it's almost twice as big as the pin bar itself. Just wondering if that was a concern for you or not.
  • #993
  • Aug 26, 2009 11:14am Aug 26, 2009 11:14am
I always like this kind of 3rd lower low with triple div, I'm always very cautios when CT trading and I kill them after 15 min if I'm not into positive territory, i broke even, but the trade would've worked if I had given it a little more time (which I'm not willing to do if it's CT)
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  • #994
  • Aug 26, 2009 12:03pm Aug 26, 2009 12:03pm
I just closed this CT trade with div.

It also rejected the 50% fib line from the 4hr chart twice which made it even a higher probability trade for me.
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  • #995
  • Aug 28, 2009 2:36pm Aug 28, 2009 2:36pm
something I've been noticing in my backtesting is pinbars with the trend rejecting the 50 SMA and closing with the trend. Find they usually signal large moves with the trend. Anyone else had any success with this?
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  • #996
  • Aug 29, 2009 3:00pm Aug 29, 2009 3:00pm
Quoting Icehocey77
well my backtesting has been a tough slog, so in a way to foster some motivation to get year 2 done and to interject some discussion I'm posting my year 1 trades for the year 2001. I can't get Forextester to produce a summary the way MT4 can so I'll sum things up:

Beginning Balance: 3000
Ending Balance (2001): 3152
= 5.06% return

18 winning trades (22.7%)
15 break even (21.5%)
46 losing trades (58.2%)

total: 79 trades

Max loss: $140, 7 pip stop loss
Max win: $600, 20 pip take profit

Averaged about 3 losses per win, but did sustain a streak...
Finally finished with 2002, took much less trades this year:

Beginning Balance: 3152
Ending Balance: 3665
= 16.28% return
= 22.17% return total.

4 winning trades (21%)
5 break even (26%)
10 losing trades (53%)

total: 19 trades

Max loss: $128, 8 pip stop loss
Max win: $460, 20 pip take profit

Averaged about 2.5 losses per win, but did sustain a streak of 4 losers in a row.

Tried to be more pickier with trades this time around. I was up well over 4,000 before having a big streak of losing to finish the year.
  • #997
  • Aug 31, 2009 4:32am Aug 31, 2009 4:32am
Sweet CT pinbar with div.

Took over 2 hours to reach TP, London is closed today so volatility is very low.
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  • #998
  • Aug 31, 2009 6:34am Aug 31, 2009 6:34am
I'm not trading the latest pinbar, look at the PPZ above it. I don't want to take that risk in this low volatility market.

Earlier there was another beautiful CT pin, but was away from my desk.
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  • #999
  • Aug 31, 2009 7:54am Aug 31, 2009 7:54am
I ignored the "best possible outcome pinbar" earlier today. It finally broke through the PPZ, not easily though.

I really don't care, in the I made profit today. And always remember, another opportunity is waiting around the corner.

Getting tough on yourself because of a missed opportunity is reckless and will destroy you and your account in the long run. Chasing a new trade to make up for the lost opportunity will have the same disastrous effect.
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  • #1,000
  • Aug 31, 2009 9:21am Aug 31, 2009 9:21am
Icehockey77,

Great work so far. If I'm looking at your stats correctly, you only took 19 trades on the 5 min in all of 2002? That just seems really low to me. I have been manually backtesting with a 10/10 R:R and the results have looked promising so far. I don't have enough stats to post any conclusions just yet but from the preliminary stuff it seems like it's got potential.


Quoting Icehocey77
Finally finished with 2002, took much less trades this year:

Beginning Balance: 3152
Ending Balance: 3665
= 16.28% return
= 22.17% return total.

4 winning trades (21%)
5 break even (26%)
10 losing trades (53%)

total: 19 trades

Max loss: $128, 8 pip stop loss
Max win: $460, 20 pip take profit

Averaged about 2.5 losses per win, but did sustain a streak of 4 losers in a row.

Tried to be more pickier with trades this time around. I was up well over 4,000 before having a big streak of losing to finish the year.
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