4H Box Breakout | Page 130 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Box Breakout indicator 197 replies

Breakout EA based on New York Box 3 replies

4H Weekly Box Breakout [TD] 4 replies

EURUSD Box Breakout 6 replies

Breakout Box 5 replies

Attachments: 4H Box Breakout
Exit Attachments

4H Box Breakout

  • #2,581
  • Aug 26, 2009 8:33am Aug 26, 2009 8:33am
Quoting shiko
even 50 pips work when price MOVES. But with 100 pips there probably would be few losses more. I had 4 losses since January 1 with 50 pips and BE. a lot BE though. But return was only 5% less than with ACE original rules.
Be careful with percentages . . . the difference in return was actually quite a bit more than 5%. You posted earlier that your method returned about 29% in backtesting since January, and Ace's method returned about 34%. That's actually a difference in return of almost 15%.

To express it in numbers instead of percentages, that means when Ace's system has earned $10,000 in profits, a method that earned 5% less would be at $9,500. Your method, by contrast, would have earned about $8,530. That's still a healthy profit, but a long way from a 5% difference.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,582
  • Aug 26, 2009 8:37am Aug 26, 2009 8:37am
Quoting yen44x
Be careful with percentages . . . the difference in return was actually quite a bit more than 5%. You posted earlier that your method returned about 29% in backtesting since January, and Ace's method returned about 34%. That's actually a difference in return of almost 15%....

Yen, could you explain your calculation? I do not get it. how is it possible to have 15% difference instead of 5%?
I used take profit targets to calculate % returns per trade.
as I am riksing 1% per trade. so, box is 1% loss. TP3 is 3% win.
  • #2,583
  • Aug 26, 2009 8:39am Aug 26, 2009 8:39am
hey Ace,

do u use the 50% box sl or still going for sl to be after tp1 is hit?
  • #2,584
  • Aug 26, 2009 8:41am Aug 26, 2009 8:41am
I am not counting pips. it has no sense to me since I am risking 1%, it is 150 pips = 1% an 300 pips box is still 1% just position per pip differs.
  • #2,585
  • Aug 26, 2009 8:48am Aug 26, 2009 8:48am
Quoting shiko
Yen, could you explain your calculation? I do not get it. how is it possible to have 15% difference instead of 5%?
I used take profit targets to calculate % returns per trade.
as I am riksing 1% per trade. so, box is 1% loss. TP3 is 3% win.
As another example, shiko, let's say you were earning a 10% return, and I was earning a 5% return. Is that a 5% difference? Hardly. I would actually be earning 50% of what you are.

To figure out the true difference in percentages, divide your return (29%) by Ace's return (34%). The result is .8530, meaning you're earning a little over 85% of what Ace is earning. Over time, that's a significant difference.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,586
  • Aug 26, 2009 8:57am Aug 26, 2009 8:57am
i see what you mean. I meant % return on original amount.
  • #2,587
  • Aug 26, 2009 9:08am Aug 26, 2009 9:08am
Generally, it depends upon market conditions. If market moves strongly and gives break outs and big moves so, Ace original set up is better.
But it was not working that well in 2003 because there were fewer big moves that could give TP3-TP4. in this scenario, setting BE at lower target and taking partial profits might be better option.
  • #2,588
  • Aug 26, 2009 9:08am Aug 26, 2009 9:08am
Quoting shiko
i see what you mean. I meant % return on original amount.
Whether it's the original amount or a future amount, it's still almost a 15% difference.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,589
  • Aug 26, 2009 9:13am Aug 26, 2009 9:13am
Quoting yen44x
Whether it's the original amount or a future amount, it's still almost a 15% difference.

Yes, you mean difference in amounts I meant difference in returns in %
  • #2,590
  • Aug 26, 2009 9:15am Aug 26, 2009 9:15am
Well, I am trading both set ups Original and mine and plus 2 more . we will see over the time where it is all going
  • #2,591
  • Aug 26, 2009 9:16am Aug 26, 2009 9:16am
Quoting shiko
Well, I am trading both set ups Original and mine and plus 2 more . we will see over the time where it is all going
Are you experimenting with the SL at 50% of box size? I was intrigued by that suggestion.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,592
  • Aug 26, 2009 9:20am Aug 26, 2009 9:20am
Quoting yen44x
Are you experimenting with the SL at 50% of box size? I was intrigued by that suggestion.

I will, starting this Sunday. account where I risked 2% per trade. Now , I will risk 1% with 50% of the box but same pip worth. It must be really good R:R, isn't it? say, 3 trades lost -3%. 1 TP3 taken it is 6%. already 3% up.
  • #2,593
  • Aug 26, 2009 9:25am Aug 26, 2009 9:25am
This will be my last trading weekend till October. I am out for vacation since next Saturday. Probably will be able to take few trades if there is internet there. I will see.
  • #2,594
  • Aug 26, 2009 11:40am Aug 26, 2009 11:40am
Sorry for my stupid question, but what does it mean "BE" ?
  • #2,595
  • Aug 26, 2009 11:52am Aug 26, 2009 11:52am
The 50% Stop loss suggestion has been suggested for the initial stop loss inside of the opposite side of the box...........stop loss to BE after TP1 is still a very good way of minimizing loss...

Of course as many suggestions, it is only a suggestion and back testing is needed to see the results.
Keeping Life Simple
  • #2,596
  • Aug 26, 2009 11:58am Aug 26, 2009 11:58am
Quoting time1300
The 50% Stop loss suggestion has been suggested for the initial stop loss inside of the opposite side of the box...........stop loss to BE after TP1 is still a very good way of minimizing loss...

Of course as many suggestions, it is only a suggestion and back testing is needed to see the results.
Thats the only way i trade this start...i also move SL to BE after my first profit target is hit.

I also "front load" my first trade as well...
IE: I trade a total of 5 minilots and 2 of those 5 are closed at the first profit target and then rest are BE (on GJ i go BE + 10)
Yes i get stopped out BE more often but i have found alot of the times if price crosses back into the range it will stop you out...

I backtested all of 09 with this strat and it worked out great...only wish i DID trade this strat since then

trading sucks right now because there is no real money i the market...just wait till after labor day
  • #2,597
  • Edited 12:13pm Aug 26, 2009 11:58am | Edited 12:13pm
Quoting SonaV.
Sorry for my stupid question, but what does it mean "BE" ?
It's a reference to Shakespeare's Hamlet "To BE or not to BE, that is the question".

Sorry, it actually refers to Breakeven.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,598
  • Aug 26, 2009 12:01pm Aug 26, 2009 12:01pm
Quoting SonaV.
Sorry for my stupid question, but what does it mean "BE" ?
Don't worry SonaV, there are no stupid questions, only stupid answers. and BE is Breakeven.
  • #2,599
  • Aug 26, 2009 12:54pm Aug 26, 2009 12:54pm
Quoting shiko
Yeah, I got it early, this system is all about letting profits run and waiting for big moves. but if it is long time ranging markets taking partial profits might be a good idea. I made almost 1% last week this way.
What I like more is waiting for 100 pips, set SL to BE and close 1/2 the position. Then let the second position run as far as it will. Best of both worlds.

When you set to BE you're just guaranteeing no loss on the trade. Better to take some profit imo.
  • #2,600
  • Aug 26, 2009 12:56pm Aug 26, 2009 12:56pm
Quoting time1300
The 50% Stop loss suggestion has been suggested for the initial stop loss inside of the opposite side of the box...........stop loss to BE after TP1 is still a very good way of minimizing loss...

Of course as many suggestions, it is only a suggestion and back testing is needed to see the results.
Sometime back, I posted that I moved my SL to BE very quickly. Doing some backtesting, I found that 90 pips was a very good number.

I am also still running my concept of establishing a new Pending Order should I be stopped out. For example this week, my short was entered, I moved SL to BE but market came back and SL is hit. I was out. I set a new Pending Order at 25 pips below my exit of 155.29. Market moved up to 155.53 so I moved up my Pending Short Order to 155.29.

Market reversed back down again and I re-entered the Short and have been following the market back down. I put a tighter Trailing stop overnight which took we out at 152.74 for 255 pips profits.

This morning (Wednesday) I will watch the market and if reasonable I may set a new Pending short at 152.74. It is currently sideways at about 152.88. Don't expect much action until about 4 pm westcoast time.

I still think this is a powerful method but really needs some programming to backtest.

Dave R.
9 traders viewing now