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4H Box Breakout

  • #2,561
  • Aug 26, 2009 2:30am Aug 26, 2009 2:30am
how did i manage my stop lost !
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  • #2,562
  • Aug 26, 2009 2:30am Aug 26, 2009 2:30am
Quoting camvcvoo
Thank you for your clarification.

I understand better now.

Will respect your effort and i will only keep this in this thread and no where else within Forex Factory.

Cheers!
Anywhere in ForexFactory is ok, my particular system is ForexFactory exclusive. I just don't want my system spread around from website to website.
  • #2,563
  • Aug 26, 2009 3:14am Aug 26, 2009 3:14am
Quoting shiko
Ah, $30 ! I was thinking $30K
hahahhaha
  • #2,564
  • Aug 26, 2009 3:40am Aug 26, 2009 3:40am
Hi Ace and others,

I have not been active on this thread but have followed it keenly. I would like to share some statistics on the GBPJPY pair, based on data obtained from Alpari UK. The dates of the data is from 08/20/2007 till 08/25/2009. I will focus only on all the Mondays (or Sunday evening in US) during this period since your strategy uses this day as the starting point. There were a total of 104 Mondays. The data shows that if the close of the 1st 4Hrly Bar of the day is up (+ve) compared to the day's Open or if the close of the 1st 4Hrly Bar is down (- ve) compared to the day's Open, then the probability of follow through in that direction (either up or down) is 70.2%. By follow through I mean the largest range from the Day's open will be in the same direction as shown by the 1st 4Hrly Bar (open to close).

This also means that there is a 29.8% reversal to the opposite side showing that about 3/10 times the direction of the 1st Bar (close-to-open) will NOT be aligned to the Day's main move signifying a failure. Further, the minimum Stop size needed to attain the 70.2% is 174 below the open for a BUY or 301 above the open for a SELL. These are large stops. Lets say we are only interested in a 80% success or occurances then the stop sizes reduce to 55 below open for Buy and 41 above open for Sell. This effectively reduces the probability of succes from 70.2% to 56.2%. The difference being due to having been stopped out even though the direction was correct.

If however the focus is shifted to entry after the 2nd 4Hrly Bar is formed instead, then the success rate (open-close aligned to Day's main direction) is increased to 76.9% with 23.1% reversal or failure. If taking stops into consideration, the probability of succes is reduced from 76.9% to 60.8%. These statistics do not take into considerstion the continuation into Tuesdays and other days of the week since that adds new variables and probabilities. Also for reference, the end of the 1st 4Hrly Bar is at 0200 GMT. I hope this has added some new input to the discussion and continuation towards positive refinements to the method.


Regards,

Dave
  • #2,565
  • Aug 26, 2009 4:07am Aug 26, 2009 4:07am
Quoting davelochen
Hi Ace and others,

I have not been active on this thread but have followed it keenly. I would like to share some statistics on the GBPJPY pair, based on data obtained from Alpari UK. The dates of the data is from 08/20/2007 till 08/25/2009. I will focus only on all the Mondays (or Sunday evening in US) during this period since your strategy uses this day as the starting point. There were a total of 104 Mondays. The data shows that if the close of the 1st 4Hrly Bar of the day is up (+ve) compared to the day's Open or if the close of the 1st 4Hrly...
thanks bro
  • #2,566
  • Aug 26, 2009 4:31am Aug 26, 2009 4:31am
Quoting davelochen
Hi Ace and others,

I have not been active on this thread but have followed it keenly. I would like to share some statistics on the GBPJPY pair, based on data obtained from Alpari UK. The dates of the data is from 08/20/2007 till 08/25/2009. I will focus only on all the Mondays (or Sunday evening in US) during this period since your strategy uses this day as the starting point. There were a total of 104 Mondays. The data shows that if the close of the 1st 4Hrly Bar of the day is up (+ve) compared to the day's Open or if the close of the 1st 4Hrly...
Hi Dave,

great work!
A question though, does your study show anything about the Risk vs Reward ratio?
I mean the stoploss you explained, but which TP's were you aiming for in your investigation?

Do you have any pip averages per week or month so we can see it in real numbers?

Many thanks for your contribution!


With kind regards,
Jesper
  • #2,567
  • Aug 26, 2009 5:08am Aug 26, 2009 5:08am
Quoting yen44x
Bobcat2 . . . I like your idea and will give it a try on a demo account. One question: In referring to the fib box studies, did you actually mean to say 61.8% instead of 68.2, or was 68.2 correct?

Thanks!

This 50% of the box is really interesting idea. Leaving position size same and risking 1% , if we aim at TP2 we would have 4:1 R;R and if aiming for TP3 it would be even better.
I will spend some time today back testing this idea.
  • #2,568
  • Aug 26, 2009 5:17am Aug 26, 2009 5:17am
the more I think the more I like 50% of the box idea. I am watching December 2008 right now and see that when middle is hit, the whole box is gone later.
The point here is to keep same leverage per pip as for the whole box but reduce total % risk of the balance. R;R is off the chart. I see few moves here that would pay for few in row losses few times over.
  • #2,569
  • Aug 26, 2009 5:19am Aug 26, 2009 5:19am
what is interesting here, what is the best time to move stop loss to B/E with this approach.
  • #2,570
  • Aug 26, 2009 6:20am Aug 26, 2009 6:20am
im trying to daily trade using this system on another new fxcm micro account of 30usd.... place order on G/J at 152.8,sl at 153.59,tp at 151.80.... price broke the support level n waiting to break the pysch level..
  • #2,571
  • Aug 26, 2009 6:48am Aug 26, 2009 6:48am
Quoting Freako
im trying to daily trade using this system on another new fxcm micro account of 30usd.... place order on G/J at 152.8,sl at 153.59,tp at 151.80.... price broke the support level n waiting to break the pysch level..
I do not think it is this system. According to this system we trade orders set at the top and bottom of the first 4 hours candle and your short order is a way too low for the first weekly candle. You just want a piece of action
  • #2,572
  • Aug 26, 2009 6:49am Aug 26, 2009 6:49am
Quoting LegoFx
Hi Ronald

I'm using your EA as a tool to learn how to program using MT4. Haven't gone too far yet, but got a quick q for you. When you calculate the Lot size in the Money Management sequence, you use the following function:

Lots = MathFloor((AccountFreeMargin()*AccountLeverage()*Risk*Point*BrokerMultiplier*100) / (Ask*MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_LOTSIZE)*MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_MINLOT)))*MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_MINLOT);

In the division' denominator, why do you multiply by MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_MINLOT) after you calculated the Lot...
.

To highlight the equation I'm using...

It cancels out the other MIN_LOT function that happens earlier.

The difference between my MM function and other MM functions is that mine works regardless of whether or not a broker uses 0.01 lots, 0.1 lots, and so on.
  • #2,573
  • Aug 26, 2009 7:11am Aug 26, 2009 7:11am
I lost my cool and made a stupid post a few days ago and am sorry. Also made a post referencing back tests and be wary of which candle. Dave has studeied the box a few posts ago with a candle ending 0200gmt. Ace uses candle ending 0100gmt
  • #2,574
  • Aug 26, 2009 7:14am Aug 26, 2009 7:14am
Quoting davewooldrid
I lost my cool and made a stupid post a few days ago and am sorry. Also made a post referencing back tests and be wary of which candle. Dave has studeied the box a few posts ago with a candle ending 0200gmt. Ace uses candle ending 0100gmt

Ace mentioned that he has account with FXDD. to trade as Ace says, we all should have this FXDD demo and that's all. No big deal.
  • #2,575
  • Aug 26, 2009 7:38am Aug 26, 2009 7:38am
O guys, if this G/J break out we will have a very interesting Sunday and probably not one. Just check historical data. G/J moves can last for few weeks.
  • #2,576
  • Aug 26, 2009 7:38am Aug 26, 2009 7:38am
Quoting shiko
the more I think the more I like 50% of the box idea. I am watching December 2008 right now and see that when middle is hit, the whole box is gone later.
The point here is to keep same leverage per pip as for the whole box but reduce total % risk of the balance. R;R is off the chart. I see few moves here that would pay for few in row losses few times over.
i am interested too in 50% sl of the box. i dont think v have to put sl to be after tp 1 is hit then. if i m not mistaken if v used the 50% theory our trades wouls still be on now
  • #2,577
  • Aug 26, 2009 7:46am Aug 26, 2009 7:46am
Quoting Ronald Raygun
.

To highlight the equation I'm using...

It cancels out the other MIN_LOT function that happens earlier.

The difference between my MM function and other MM functions is that mine works regardless of whether or not a broker uses 0.01 lots, 0.1 lots, and so on.
So it doesn't matter what your lots are set to, the MM feature will override it if you have a value other than 0 set? Is that correct?
  • #2,578
  • Aug 26, 2009 7:49am Aug 26, 2009 7:49am
Quoting vito88id
i am interested too in 50% sl of the box. i dont think v have to put sl to be after tp 1 is hit then. if i m not mistaken if v used the 50% theory our trades wouls still be on now

May be, I have not looked yet, but we need to remember that markets change. That's why I decided to trade this strategy with 4 accounts with slightly different trade management rules. I have just started, week 1, so, I will dedicate one account to 50% of the box stop loss.
  • #2,579
  • Aug 26, 2009 7:49am Aug 26, 2009 7:49am
Ace
You are probably talking about the TWO break outs , on both directions .
Some weeks there is only 1 BO , some weeks 2 .
But my observation was ONLY on the 1st BO .
There were 34 weeks .
Here is the amount of max pips the trade went in the direction
on the 1st BO .
I repeat only of the 1st BO .
H4 - GBPJPY
week no. /amount of pips
1..............-150
2..............625
3..............518
4...............?
5..............318
6...............875
7...............-134
8...............656
9...............189
10..............660
11..............219
12..............530
13..............356
14..............110
15..............170
16..............513
17..............207
18..............20
19..............614
20..............637
21..............-153
22.............560
23..............137
24.............570
25.............360
26..............250
27..............886
28.............212
29.............125
30.............120
31............318
32...........583
33...........180
34............176 (this week)
I have done this only with my eyes and the crosshair
Total 34 trades
How many trades with less than 110 pips ?
4 !!! only Four
How many weeks with +110 pips ?
29 weeks !!!
That is 85 % of the weeks .
IN 85% OF THE WEEKS , THE MINIMUM AMOUNT OF PIPS THAT THE 1ST
BO OF THE GY GAVE WAS 110 PIPS
IF THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ...I CAN LIVE VERY WELL
BUT WE ALL WANT 100 PIPS PER DAY ...
THAT'S ONLY 440 PIPS A MONTH IF WE TAKE A VERY CONSERVATIVE APPROACH .
TP = 110 PIPS
AND WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER PAIRS LIKE EY ?
THE YEN PAIRS HAVE A VERY HIGH CORRELATION ...
I HAVE MANY IDEAS BUT I NEED YOUR HELP WITH PROGRAMMING ...
ANY VOLUNTEERS ?
THERE IS ALSO A LOT TO BE DONE WITH THE OPTIMIZATION OF THE SL AS ACE MENTIONED IT .
CAN YOU CALCULATE THE RR OF THE 1ST BO ?!
THERE IS A LOT TO BE DONE AND CHECKED ...AND THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL !
LOOKING FORWARD TO READ YOUR INPUT
REGARDS
David



Quoting Ace284
This has actually also sparked an idea.
This can also be a valid approach. From what i've visually backtested GY has hit the 120 pip mark about 34 times and lost 12 times. Don't quote me on that exactly. But it should be around there.

David, your suggesting an approach where we reduce risk to reward making it around 1:1 but with a higher win rate.

Its a good approach, but the original method with BE at TP1 is more profitable.


[b]Guys, i'm really impressed with all the active posters and varitions. Get your ideas on the table, and we'll...
  • #2,580
  • Aug 26, 2009 7:54am Aug 26, 2009 7:54am
It depends upon what we do with stop loss. yesterday that was news event, it is not a regular thing. as I understand. we move stop loss either once only to BE or maximum twice to TP1 after TP2 was achieved and then let it run to TP3-TP4, whatever.
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