Scalping Verdict

I am a scalper. Nothing fancy. Trying to not get beaten by the rat.

"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

P64 HOW WE DECIDE

Interesting how that quote relates Yale students (undergrad too ) to the entire trading population. All it proves is that trading is an art. The exact science is way beyond our primitive human-mind. Not random, just too hard for our little pea brains to comprehend. We can't even understand the inner workings of human mind, let alone understand the outcome of what psychology (greed and fear) has on price.

Sure many look for the formula. Price is the inverse sum of the square root of greed directly proportionate the amount of fear. lol yea right.

Bottom line is the rat found a regular pattern. It's all about patterns...

If you can see a pattern on the 1 minute chart, exploit it! If you can see a pattern on the monthly chart exploit it! If you can see a pattern without a chart at all, for god's sake EXPLOIT IT!!

It's all about your interpretation.

There are no right and wrong ways. Right is what works for you. Wrong is when you're not making money.

As for the poll, Which time frame is best?

Where's none of the above and all of the above?

Sorry Mate but the rat did not find a pattern. The rat found what worked best. The Yale students were looking for a pattern. The rat just turned left.

I think that would defeat the purpose of the word BEST and WHICH in the question.

LoL, I just wanted people's most favorite.

The rat did that by recognising a recurring pattern.

Majority of the time going to the left is a pattern. So the rat always went left.

It doesn't take a Yale undergrad to understand that... lol

The quote is flawed or mis-worded. The rat still recognised a pattern. The Yale students tried to find order....

Ive traded long term and I can make pips but the percentage is low because I cant hold them long enough (personal problem). Scalping I am really getting it down as of late. It has taken time to learn all I need to know about my self to know that I am a scalper. I wish that I could play those long 1000 pip plays but I am not patient enough. and that could be worth 10% and take a week, more likely a couple. Now a modest scalper can make a % a day in my opinion still equaling the same as those once a month big plays. I started trading to get away from contruction 8+ hour days fun stuff. I trade full time at the moment but not by choice (work is slow) ohh the irony. I spend 4 hours at the longest trading london NY lap, most of the time Im done before my kids get up. Once I get my leverage up, if things stay as they have been going, I will be averaging about 1% per day. Plenty for me. better than 2-5% per month over a my long term strategy.

Whats your average win and average loss?
And you win rate(%)?

Ballpark figure is fine if you happen to know.

I think you're giving that rat way to much credit.

Depends how you spin it. The Yale students were probably looking for the highest win rate based on historical data. That most certainly can be a recurring pattern.

The rat still recognised a pattern.

"It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding".

That is pattern recognition.

"Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward"

That is trying to find complete order.

win rate is in the 90's I have gone 3 weeks with no losses and 2 in the 4th as my best run on it.

1-4 trades per day looking for 20+ pips total, avg winner is about 7-12 not sure

I use a static stop of 2% but manage loss by PA Id say avg loss is just a pinch more than my winners but not much. The biggest I can think of was in the 20's of pips

How ever every now and then I catch a runner for 30+ pips off these are my longest trades usually done in about 20 minutes

And most artists are starving.

I'm going to buy you a trap for that damn rat, he's driving me nuts

Holy crap, 200-300,000 r/t per day!!! Is that true?

I thought Rotter got busted for something a while back, there was some scandal about him I'm sure, wasn't he exiled to Zug or somewhere?

You seem to like rats a lot.

The underlying message i'm getting out of this is that, if one situation is apparently more profitable, then there is no need to question it because that's just the way it is. Perhaps also that this thread is over analyzing scalping when the rat is just 'following' the market.

In a crystal clear world, your rat example would be great because your simply stating a fact based on all other things being equal. That's not necessarily the case in the real world, especially in forex.


There is always a reason as to why something has worked. That's where the key aspects of forex trading come in, such as Money Management, Risk to Reward, position sizing, and so on.

Its not just about looking at the short term, its about months and years from now. Its about improvement, is about development and its about perfecting. I've seen a couple of your posts on the other thread stating that while people analyze the rat just follows the market.


The market isn't moved by one mind. Its moved by hundreds of thousands of different people. At which point do you decide to follow a certain group of traders that move the market? Now perhaps you'll suggest that there is no need to follow people, just follow the Price Action. Price action is a huge matter of discretion. A rat will see a bar going short, and will follow it due to its primitive mind. It'll do that even if its a one pip move down. Traders simply can't do that because they may see profit for a short period, but then it'll reverse. So does that mean you now take long? If thats the case then it would be an endless day taking long, short, long short, only to end up with frustration.


You're right in that the market movement is more or less random to an average trader. But, the profitable traders are the ones who develop good money management, risk to reward and so on. That's something a rat cannot do.


LoL, rat's cannot be related to trading with substantial proof. I get your idea, but in terms of real use, I don't see it. Unless the rat happens to be mickey mouse, then its a different story


I enjoy debating such topics. Looking to hear back.