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4H Box Breakout

  • #2,481
  • Aug 25, 2009 1:16pm Aug 25, 2009 1:16pm
Quoting Pharoah
NOTE: I must caution anyone that when working with this stoploss system you MUST not be greedy. From what I have checked out, NEVER enter a single direction more than twice (this hold VERY true for image 2's current week which is VERY VERY ranged)
Its Ronald Rayguns EA at post # 2094. The box is identical but it is formed on the 1HR chart. By identical I mean the Candle High and Candle Low for the first four hours is the same and the Buffer is the same.

I am not sure if that is relevant however. What I really would like to know is what settings on a one hour chart for the moving average, would give the same values at any given time equivalent to the four hour chart. I also think a 1 hr chart would be more sensitive to rapid price movement.

Would I simply multiply each setting by four??

Dave R.
  • #2,482
  • Aug 25, 2009 1:19pm Aug 25, 2009 1:19pm
Quoting droland
I am not sure if that is relevant however. What I really would like to know is what settings on a one hour chart for the moving average, would give the same values at any given time equivalent to the four hour chart. I also think a 1 hr chart would be more sensitive to rapid price movement.
Dave R.
ok, I'm going to check that post and grab that to begin some test's, but no, I wouldn't go as far as multiplying it by 4. or deviding it by 4, in most cases MA's will act the same on most timeframes (you'll just be able to see the larger variation of waves on lower timeframes) But either way, I'm going to look into this for you. will reply when I have something for you.
  • #2,483
  • Aug 25, 2009 1:26pm Aug 25, 2009 1:26pm
Quoting droland
Its Ronald Rayguns EA at post # 2094....
Question, was a 1H weekly box breakout indicator ever made? I'm having a hard time with this EA, it doesn't seem to display the proper points (I cannot find a single bar that aligns with the indicator points at the beginning of a week)
  • #2,484
  • Aug 25, 2009 1:29pm Aug 25, 2009 1:29pm
Quoting Pharoah
ok, I'm going to check that post and grab that to begin some test's, but no, I wouldn't go as far as multiplying it by 4. or deviding it by 4, in most cases MA's will act the same on most timeframes (you'll just be able to see the larger variation of waves on lower timeframes) But either way, I'm going to look into this for you. will reply when I have something for you.
Thanks Pharoah

I used the concept of multiplying by 4 for each to the MA parameters and I think it works pretty well. see the attached charts.

Dave R.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ma 1hr.gif Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ma 4hr.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #2,485
  • Aug 25, 2009 1:32pm Aug 25, 2009 1:32pm
ok, that seems to work rather well, make sure you do some manual backtesting to verify it's validity in as many types of market conditions you can.
  • #2,486
  • Aug 25, 2009 1:37pm Aug 25, 2009 1:37pm
Quoting Pharoah
ok, that seems to work rather well, make sure you do some manual backtesting to verify it's validity in as many types of market conditions you can.
Yes, I agree. Again the best way is with a mod to an EA. I like it better than a plain trailing stop is it would seem to be more indicative of the real market and would adapt accordingly.

As you say, lets backtest.

Dave R.
  • #2,487
  • Aug 25, 2009 1:39pm Aug 25, 2009 1:39pm
Quoting timf1979
Hi to all of the fellow traders of the ace's 4h breakout system. i'm done for the week too. hpefully next month were gonna be back to volatility and trending market. i'm tired of this august ranging. still closed the month with 7% profit in my account so not that bad . As far for the 50% of the box as SL, i personally draw 1 fib on the first bar of the week and search for the 75% level to stick my sl there. Nice to hear some thoughts on that.

BTW.... Ace's 4h is the only system i trade...so kudus to Ace!!!

Remember how last year August ranging ended.
Keep setting your orders
  • #2,488
  • Aug 25, 2009 1:43pm Aug 25, 2009 1:43pm
Quoting droland
Yes, I agree. Again the best way is with a mod to an EA. I like it better than a plain trailing stop is it would seem to be more indicative of the real market and would adapt accordingly.

As you say, lets backtest.

Dave R.
Something I should advise you of, if a sell order is triggered, and the price moves down and down, then retraces back up, if the Simple MA starts to move back up with the price, before the price breaches the simple MA, DO NOT follow the simple MA with your stoploss, leave it at it's CLOSEST point to the actual price. This holds true but exact opposite for a buy trigger. This stoploss system is nothing more than a super advanced trailing stop.
  • #2,489
  • Aug 25, 2009 1:56pm Aug 25, 2009 1:56pm
Quoting Freako
ive just started using this system live with no demo at all on 10aug this year with 30usd on fxcm micro.. yes it is riduculous to start an account of 30usd.. with that amount of equity,im taking a big risk with no mm cos i cant calculate how much risk% im risking.. i like to see my account grow slowly.. i place only 1micro lot starting of the account on week of 10aug n my account manage to reach ard 60+usd.. last week i did not trade cos price bypass my entry when i log into trade station so i did not enter even 20pips going my way.. this week 24aug,i...

Damn, be careful buddy.

do not risk more than $300 or 1% in the beginning.
It is easy to calculate your risk.
Say you risk $300 for each trade. and I mean stick for now with 1 pair.
The size of the box say 150 pips. so, $300/150 pips =$2 per pip. You set position worth $2 per pip. I have no idea with which broker you are trading so, i do not know how you can control sizes. with Oanda it is not a problem. be careful and manage your risk wisely. do not try to make quick buck.
  • #2,490
  • Aug 25, 2009 1:59pm Aug 25, 2009 1:59pm
Quoting Freako
ive just started using this system live with no demo at all on 10aug this year with 30usd on fxcm micro.. yes it is riduculous to start an account of 30usd.. with that amount of equity,im taking a big risk with no mm cos i cant calculate how much risk% im risking.. i like to see my account grow slowly.. i place only 1micro lot starting of the account on week of 10aug n my account manage to reach ard 60+usd.. last week i did not trade cos price bypass my entry when i log into trade station so i did not enter even 20pips going my way.. this week 24aug,i...

Ah, $30 ! I was thinking $30K
  • #2,491
  • Aug 25, 2009 2:04pm Aug 25, 2009 2:04pm
Hi Ace & all
I am new to this thread and for sure not more clever than anybody here .
Would like to make a comment based on my visual observation of GY .
When I saw the charts with the 2 indi , I checked visually ONE thing :
What was the maximum amount of pips the trade went on the direction of the 1st box BO , before I close the trade due to SL (other side) or end of week.
And I said Wowwwww !
I visually checked it roughly since Jan 2009 , the 1st BO on the GY and I saw that there are only 3 losers ! The trade goes on the direction of the trade AT LEAST 120 pips (roughly , visually , ok ?) . Some weeks 300 , 500 pips , some almost 900 .
I would like to make every day just 5 pips . So with 100 pips a week I will be very happy . But Consistently .
Of course that way you will not get the huge moves ...
Of course that when price reaches TP1 you can move SL to BE and have a free ride as yesterday ...
If someone can promise me a trade that will give every week 120 pips
or an other one with a big variance of :
1 week 300 pips
1 week BE
1 week 20
I prefer the "sure" 120 pips .
I am working also on the mental aspects of trading , how not to bee greedy .
The truth , I don't need more than 100 pips a week .
It's more than enough for me .
I would like to hear your comments .
There are many things that we can check :
1st BO
2nd BO
May be we don't need to take the 2nd trade . We need to check separately the 1st & the 2nd BO .
Of course that everyone would like to make 500 pips a week , but let have first the 100 pips on our pockets .
Ace idea to check an optimal SL is welcome . May be will have a very good RR .
If the 120 pips , is a high probability trade , may be we can increase our risk (?)
As I am not a programmer I can not do all this back test .
May be someone can help on that ?
Last week I think that according to the original rules there were 2 losers .
Last week 1st BO gave 180 pips
This week 1st BO gave 176 pips
and that's only on 1 pair . I think that EY behaves similar as they have high correlation and we can take around 70% of the GY .
We can definetly take a big portion of that move ...
I think at least 100-120 pips .
That's to Ace for this thread .
Looking forward to hear from you . Constructive crticism is welcome .
Regards
David
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h4 2009 gy.gif Size: 80 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 250809_1005.gif Size: 81 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: mar-aug 2009 gy.gif Size: 92 KB
  • #2,492
  • Aug 25, 2009 2:14pm Aug 25, 2009 2:14pm
Hi All,

I have been looking at the 4H weekly open bar as a breakout point since last fall, though I have not used indicators or EAs. It was great to find this thread and all the valuable tools and experience here. Thanks to everyone who has contributed.

My experience is that this method works well in moving markets. The key is determining which weeks the market will move and which weeks the market will range. I think a good awareness of current world affairs and a working knowledge of the news reports due out that week and how they are likely to move the markets can be beneficial when determining trailing/BE stops and targets for that week. Getting too mechanical and inflexible will always result in inconsistent results with changing market conditions.
  • #2,493
  • Aug 25, 2009 2:15pm Aug 25, 2009 2:15pm
I feel as though I must make 1 final note on this advanced trailing stop system.

As far as I am aware, I am the original creator of this trailing stop system, and with that said, I wish for this trailing stop system to not breach outside of ForexFactory's walls. This system is exclusive to forexfactory members and WILL be in use in upcoming EA's both commercial and freely distributed to a select number of members within the Forex Factory community.

But I'm glad if my system can help any of my fellow community traders.
  • #2,494
  • Aug 25, 2009 2:18pm Aug 25, 2009 2:18pm
Quoting Ace284
If the 50% mark does work then we would effectively increase our RISK:REWARD from 1:4 to 1:8. That'd be something of beauty. To expand on that, perhaps the initial stoploss can be placed at the top or bottom of the candle that broke the box. Thats something i've been noticing because during ranging weeks, when TP1 is not hit, the price usually moves to other side of the box and we take the full hit. We can minimize that with the approach I just mentioned....

Excellent, I will dedicate the account where I risk 2% per trade with stop loss of full size box. Now I will risk 1% but stop loss will be 50% of the box.
  • #2,495
  • Aug 25, 2009 2:20pm Aug 25, 2009 2:20pm
Ice
can you tell about Fass Method
results ?
any links ?
Tks
David

Quoting Icemaan
Hallo to all

My second Strategie is the Fass Method .

Both Strategies i put my Orders and End of the Week i take a look

Icemaan
  • #2,496
  • Aug 25, 2009 2:22pm Aug 25, 2009 2:22pm
Quoting Bobcat2
Thanks Ace...I like your approach of placing the initial SL at the top or bottom of the candle that broke the box...another intriguing thought!

BTW, did I mention...I am your biggest fan!
One more idea. Probably we should check Pivot Points and some S/R areas that might be hidden in the box and set stop loss behind them...
It also can reduce stop loss requirement.
What I noticed after back testing. When market really picks up, it make TP1 easily. when not. we can reduce our los and keep risk to reward higher.
  • #2,497
  • Aug 25, 2009 2:25pm Aug 25, 2009 2:25pm
Quoting hutchy
pharoah,

can you post a screenshot explaining how this would work?

I have an idea what Pharao means. Do not close profitable position unless that MA broken in opposite to break out direction. same with stop loss.
I would stay with original rules. It is simpler and it is a real action. all indicators are lagging.
  • #2,498
  • Aug 25, 2009 2:47pm Aug 25, 2009 2:47pm
Pharoah thanks for posting your smooth MA SL and TP. I have been trading Aces 4HR Box Breakout profitably for three weeks now. The last two weeks I left a bunch of pips on the table with the " Move SL to BE + 20 at TP1" method. With the david4u post just above your last post I am going to set this up for a visiual back test right now.

Thank you for your generosity

vest1
  • #2,499
  • Aug 25, 2009 2:52pm Aug 25, 2009 2:52pm
Quoting shiko
I have an idea what Pharao means. Do not close profitable position unless that MA broken in opposite to break out direction. same with stop loss.
I would stay with original rules. It is simpler and it is a real action. all indicators are lagging.
My screenshots on the previous page explains my advanced trailing stop system, I don't know if you saw them or not, but my system in essence does exactly that of which Ace has mentioned to help increase the R:R in our favor by making it near 1:8 or higher, do a quick backtest using the original 4h box breakout (doesn't have to be per tick, this is more for visual) and you'll notice a common running trend with my advanced trailing stop system, and that trend is this.

1: weeks that the market is in a range, where most traders would have taken 1-4 full box hits (depending on how bad the innitial hit made them want to "Get back" at the market), my system reduces that loss by half or better (in alot of cases 1/4 or better)

2: Weeks that a strong trend is in play, my system captures approximately 80% of most of those trends, 100 pip, 200 pip, 600 pip, 900 pip, it does not matter, it'll capture almost all of it, unless there is a heavy retracement where the you can see the dust from the bulls and bears trying to battle it out.

I also must admit, that this is quick backtesting, and so far, forward testing is proving this system to be true to it's bactested results.
  • #2,500
  • Aug 25, 2009 3:04pm Aug 25, 2009 3:04pm
Quoting Pharoah
I feel as though I must make 1 final note on this advanced trailing stop system.

As far as I am aware, I am the original creator of this trailing stop system, and with that said, I wish for this trailing stop system to not breach outside of ForexFactory's walls. This system is exclusive to forexfactory members and WILL be in use in upcoming EA's both commercial and freely distributed to a select number of members within the Forex Factory community.

But I'm glad if my system can help any of my fellow community traders.
Pharoah thanks for sharing. This MA system of yours looks promising. I can't speak for anyone else but I will certainly keep this system here. Have you been using the 2 MAs for a while?

Thanks again,
Sandy
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