4H Box Breakout

yes if you did not then you would have gotten in the long trade here and lost out. (like me)

no, the most profitable way to trade this system is to close at the end of the week

While I don't necessarily disagree with either of you, it would be interesting to see some data to back up your statements. I think what distinguished Danno96's post was compelling data to reinforce the modifications he suggested.

Without that, it's just opinion . . . in my opinion.

I know its probably the most elementary way to trade this system, but I actually have not tested that approach too much. If anyone is curious to know why, its because I always look at Risk:Reward when I see a system.

That approach may be true. Yonnie, excluding the MASSIVE drop during October last year, has your testing confirmed that it is the most profitable.

Do you know the total profit including the drop as well?

Thanks

I entered my short position yesterday, and the stop loss was moved to BE+1 a few hours ago.

Just a quick comment of support to the person who entered the long by a pip - TRY not to worry about it. Stick to the 1-2% stake and you'll be fine. The system works (according to the backtested results). You were faked in. It could have happened to anyone. It was part of the buffer + Spread.

I too noticed that it missed my Long by a couple of pips. My buffer was 20 pips + spread. (somewhere in the 27-30 pips region) Because at that time my spread offered was about 7-10 pips as the spreads are quite wide when I placed my orders.

Yes, I took the hit as well. I have been keeping my buffer inlcuding spread at 20 and over all that has worked except this week. I took the full hit.

My short is in but I closed it at 153.68 due to the large resistance from the four bounces and the uptrend line from January. Long is a much more probable run so I have closed at a about BE for the week but I am doing two things. I am putting another Pending Short at 153.25 in case there is a breakout and I have put in a Pending Long at my SL exit of the original long less 10 pips to cover my cost in case it goes long overnight. Actually I moved the Pending Long down to 155.10. If it breaks 155.00 I feel confident it will continue Long.

I know, I know, its not the rules but it makes sense to me. As Ace says always look at risk reward. I have recovered from the first loss this week but I am ready for the breakout should they occur. If it does break south, I will miss about 40 pips of the run but I will have locked in a nice run for the first short.

Dave R.

sorry Ace/Yen, when I checked my figures Ace still came out on top..........all those charts make you dizzy

Hi everyone, i like the sound of this method.

I have been using a day trading method for the past 6 months using pivot points and price action which only uses charts to determine s&r so some of the lauguage etc being used here it unfamliar to me.

Is there a resource on FF that give me the grounding i need or can someone help me put this into context.

Thanks

ST

A very nice system Ace, good job and thanks for sharing it!

I had about +120 pips this morning (i missed the first monday candle and set it up yesterday evening) it's now only +20 pips, lol.
Should i close this as today's trend seems to point upwards or should i stick with the system and let it ride out?

Also, does everyone move the SL to BE when TP #1 is hit and then SL to TP #1 once TP #2 is hit, or how do you do that?

Best wishes
Jesper

Though all in all it seems that it's gonna go for a break south "soon".
Can you feel that too?

After returning from my summer holiday, I checked how my modified strategy was doing and the answer was "very well, thank-you", so I started to run it live this last Sunday.

Lying by a pool under the Tuscan sun, I thought about the changes I had made and on balance decided that my code must cause a lot of unneccessary whipsaws... but in practice this has not been the case, as the strat has been in the first true breakout of many weeks (as long as it started on Monday morning).

To recap, the strat enters long or short on a breakout + 1 pip (+ spread for long) of not only the recommended opening bar, but also the next two H4 bars (actually longs until 1100 CET, shorts till 1300 CET). The reason for this is twofold : first, I like using time constraints on breakout systems ; they have almost always been effective; secondly, this seems to be one of those rare cases when I have found something that works - or at least has worked in the relatively recent past - by luck.

I am not suggesting it is better than Ace's excellent base system, as presently evolved, but I am saying it is what I am comfortable trading, having tested it both in and out of sample. I should add that I am a cut and paste (non-)programmer, restricting the degree of sophistication available via my very limited skills. I wish Mr Raygun programmed in TradeStation...

Attached is an updated strategy equity curve + this weeks trade chart :

Long on break of opening bar at 156.68; reverse short on break of next bar at 156.26 (so 3 x 42 pip loser on the long), T1 at +134, exits 2 and 3 via trailing stop jus hit for 2 x 165. So -126 on the long, +464 on the short and finished for the week with this strat.

I had the short only at 155.36. Closed 1 order at 154.41 and the second at 154.33 for roughly 200 pips. Will watch for re entry but that's outside the Ace system

I have data only from January 1, 2009. Return for 33 weeks with risk of 1% per trade trading G/J only was 34% for TP3 and 32% for TP4.
With setting stop loss to B?E after 50 pips in profit return has been 29%. Take 50% profit after 50 pips in profit has been up 17%.

Hello,
I have a question.
According to Ace's method, we trade gbp/jpy and eur/jpy because they are supposed to be the most profitable currency pairs.
But if gbp/jpy is the most profitable currency pair among jpy related currency pairs, why not forcus on gbp/jpy only instead of trade the best and 2nd currency pair.
is it bad idea to consider eur/jpy as stanby currency pair when gby/jpy stays in range for ages?
I have read somewhere in this thread that some people even trade chf/jpy or aud/jpy.
is there any advantage to trade multiple currencies at the same time for Ace's method?
Thanks in advance and happy trading

By the way, I tested G/U according to this system also from January 1 according to original rules. Return was around 20%.
Hence, i have got a question. It looks like this system works for quite a lot of pairs but if G/J is the best, why should we look at other pairs? Diversity?

Trade moved up to 160 pips in my favor. Stop loss set at BE. I am letting the trade run.

I think because we trade 4 hours time frame it is more of swing strategy than long term. What I especially like about this system it permits me to learn letting trades run. i have never been able to do this in all year of Forex trading. Without letting trades run this system won't work.
This system woks fine with 3:1 R;R. I have not tested if to let trades run to the end of the week but I will probably do it this week for this yer period.
I guess we have very skilled computer guys here who can do it much faster and for a longer period.

if 153.50 broken it could be another 100 pips ride to 152.50. But then it might bounce back the whole way up to trend line . It is solid support at 1.5250. . Uptrend trend line looks like being broken. Last time it was there a month ago. Enough time to get refreshed for one more bounce .

Yeah, it looks like a lot of guys made mistake with setting long orders. We should not have been in long trade anyway. I set my long order now with proper calculation of added spread. It is at 1.5692. Do not consider first long trade a proper one.

GBP/JPY seems to have initiated in a bounce upwards, how far would you think it would last?
I closed my Short position at +60 pips and went Long on this bounce, +30 pips so far.