Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 496 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #9,901
  • Aug 24, 2009 6:35pm Aug 24, 2009 6:35pm
Quoting GEfx
OK, missed the GBP move south but am in the E/J and in good positive territory. Going to protect the entry and go for a long run, and will see where this trade is when I get back. Good trading to you all.

PS: Nice job, ukmanthailan on the GBP, 5% is a good start to the week
I notice you often mention that you are "protecting your entry" in your postings. What do you mean by this?
Good to see that people here are doing well in the ranging conditions. I am in Australia for a short visit and have been trading the early Asian Sydney session with the EUR/USD. I have been finding it has it own dance pace at this time. Good trading to all. Ray
  • #9,902
  • Aug 24, 2009 7:06pm Aug 24, 2009 7:06pm
Quoting 1234
I notice you often mention that you are "protecting your entry" in your postings. What do you mean by this?
Good to see that people here are doing well in the ranging conditions. I am in Australia for a short visit and have been trading the early Asian Sydney session with the EUR/USD. I have been finding it has it own dance pace at this time. Good trading to all. Ray
Hi Ray, when I say protecting my entry, I mean that I will not allow the PA to move beyond my enty and still be in the trade. If I am protecting the entry price, I am usually up 15-20 pips. Hope that helps,
  • #9,903
  • Aug 24, 2009 7:19pm Aug 24, 2009 7:19pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi Ray, when I say protecting my entry, I mean that I will not allow the PA to move beyond my enty and still be in the trade. If I am protecting the entry price, I am usually up 15-20 pips. Hope that helps,
Thanks. Now I understand. Kind regards. Ray
  • #9,904
  • Aug 24, 2009 7:35pm Aug 24, 2009 7:35pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi Ray, when I say protecting my entry, I mean that I will not allow the PA to move beyond my enty and still be in the trade. If I am protecting the entry price, I am usually up 15-20 pips. Hope that helps,
Does it mean that you do not do rescue operations?
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #9,905
  • Aug 24, 2009 8:05pm Aug 24, 2009 8:05pm
Quoting luSan
Does it mean that you do not do rescue operations?
Hi luSan,
Hope you are well. I started writing a detailed answer to your question and found that I was explaining a large part my trading strategy, which is not where I want to go here. So to answer your question, no, rescue is not part of my trading strategy. I do, however, add to positions on pull backs. Trade well everyone.
  • #9,906
  • Aug 24, 2009 8:13pm Aug 24, 2009 8:13pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi luSan,
Hope you are well. I started writing a detailed answer to your question and found that I was explaining a large part my trading strategy, which is not where I want to go here. So to answer your question, no, rescue is not part of my trading strategy. I do, however, add to positions on pull backs. Trade well everyone.
I understand...thanks.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #9,907
  • Aug 24, 2009 8:35pm Aug 24, 2009 8:35pm
hello every one ,,

i almost finish read this thread ,,

and i have some question :

1> as far as i understand if we trade on weekly and daily only <i.e sl=300 / tp=500 >= we like gamble and the chance win & lose is 48 % - 52 % = its depend on the spread is that right ?

2 > if we trade < feel the dance > on m5 and hourly and daily as a guide = we have more chance to win ,,,, right ?

3> if we dance on m5 = our win is depend on =attack =
and = rescue= is for recovery only < break even or a little lose >
and scout is for a guide only = is that right

4> and on attack = how many pip we take ?
= 10 pip ?
= 20 pip ?

or depend on the flow ? < we feel by experience > ?

thanks for the time to answer my question ?

regard
suma
  • #9,908
  • Aug 24, 2009 9:00pm Aug 24, 2009 9:00pm
Quoting sumakianlee
hello every one ,,

i almost finish read this thread ,,

and i have some question :

1> as far as i understand if we trade on weekly and daily only <i.e sl=300 / tp=500 >= we like gamble and the chance win & lose is 48 % - 52 % = its depend on the spread is that right ?
I do not know because I never look at the weekly...it is too far from the NOW...

[quote}2 > if we trade < feel the dance > on m5 and hourly and daily as a guide = we have more chance to win ,,,, right ? [/quote]
That is what I do...I consider 1D, 1H, 15M and 5M...then I sense their direction and I go with it...of course no patterns...no indicators..

Quote
3> if we dance on m5 = our win is depend on =attack =
and = rescue= is for recovery only < break even or a little lose >
and scout is for a guide only = is that right
that is my understanding...others might be diferent...I do not know.

Quote
4> and on attack = how many pip we take ?
= 10 pip ?
= 20 pip ?

Probably the boss would say that this is rigid...I do not pay attention anymore to the number of pips but to whatever the charts are telling me...regardless of how many pips I might be behind....I pay attention to the charts and news events...news events are important not to trade them but because they might change PA dance steps.

Quote
or depend on the flow ? < we feel by experience > ?
Yes...experience...and practice...

too much wine tonight but I will make some comments...see my shorthand red one...good luck..
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #9,909
  • Aug 24, 2009 9:09pm Aug 24, 2009 9:09pm
Quoting luSan
of course no patterns...no indicators..
Hi Lusan,

Can I ask why you say of course no patterns? I remember fti saying an understanding of compound chart formations was a prerequisite for this MO (or something similar to that)....but that we should not be rigid in our analysis and bear in mind that the charts are a work in progress and that a pattern you think you have spotted may well mutate into something else.
  • #9,910
  • Aug 24, 2009 9:27pm Aug 24, 2009 9:27pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
Hi Lusan,

Can I ask why you say of course no patterns? I remember fti saying an understanding of compound chart formations was a prerequisite for this MO (or something similar to that)....but that we should not be rigid in our analysis and bear in mind that the charts are a work in progress and that a pattern you think you have spotted may well mutate into something else.
that is precisely why I do not pay attention to paterns...if your read the literature you will find that patterns are about 50 % accurate...a toss of coin...so I prefer to dance with strategy and even though I see the patterns I dance as per whatever feeling I have...if wrong I rescue...if right I attack...right know...I feel that 1H is toppping so...I am a bull...wrong? I just do not know...I just dance...so far this week I am 100 % ...but you never know...

this market is chaotic...anything could happens...keep you eyes opens...forecasting does not work for me..not even statistically forecasting...I looked into it and I reverted to the basics that fti gave us...and I am darn happy.


Edit: Let me show what I mean...this is beautiful dance...
Maybe I am not good with patterns...it is just that they make me rigid and the boss...in my humble opinion...is ABSOLUTELY right...rigidity will kill!
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #9,911
  • Edited 9:53pm Aug 24, 2009 9:34pm | Edited 9:53pm
I agree but fti does say that you need to be familar with them to read the market form. Just wanted to let sumakianlee know that, if he is trying to follow the MO presented.

Similar to you, I found I got better results when I stopped trying to read them, but I put that down to my inexperience, so I am still trying to become more familiar with them and hope to get better over time, although I do realise that it is just one aspect and not the be all and end all.

EDIT: Maybe I can quote an early post by fti to help:

Quoting fti
the other important, read, is the market form.

I try to recognise the compounded formations in the bar charts.
A good reference to forms study wasdone by a researcher, by the name of John R.Hill,
I'm not sure if his studys are available to the masses.
They read compound chart formations.
An understanding of Hip and Lop patterns is foundational requirement.

A complimentary methodology is by complex candle chart formations.
I find the books (in english) on this too elementary.
I used to have an understudy who had a copy of the "secret" readings by rice traders in nihongo.
Unfortunately I've no contact with him for a long time since and my development on that has stalled.

I must stress, "never ever play god to the markets."
always stay in the "dance", feeling its moods and tempo,
using technical accrument to read the dance.
Implementing damage control when out of step.
That's actually money management.(another time)
Many analyst, behaves like fortune tellers, that is wrong.

All an analyst can master, is the art of dancing along with the market,
and recognising its behaviour as the dance progresses.
It is an on going process, not one read and you know all, that cannot happen.
The markets are alive.
The bits that I made bold kind of sum up what I took from it.
  • #9,912
  • Aug 24, 2009 9:46pm Aug 24, 2009 9:46pm
I just looked at my last chart and I got a funny feeling...so I closed my trade...I saw how PA was getting shorter and shorter steps...is it planning to go north?...I do not know...so I am closing...and going to bed...tomorrow will be another day...
good night.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #9,913
  • Aug 24, 2009 11:59pm Aug 24, 2009 11:59pm
Hi All

Today the markets had set the trap for USD BULLs.
Beware USD bull traps every turn.
The question in my mind, HAS the USD bears arrived yet, after a USD bull move yesterday.( wished it was a run )

Her dance variances these days, so varied as usual. Volitility ,rest in peace.


regards
  • #9,914
  • Aug 25, 2009 2:13am Aug 25, 2009 2:13am
London is on
expect volatility to wear off ,
as usual frankfurt was stops sweepin ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #9,915
  • Aug 25, 2009 3:06am Aug 25, 2009 3:06am
I don't understand how people know when they are stops sweeping. Do you mean the move from 1.4304 down to 1.4258 was just a sweep for stops?

Thanks

Mark
  • #9,916
  • Aug 25, 2009 3:06am Aug 25, 2009 3:06am
Quoting ukmanthailan
I agree but fti does say that you need to be familar with them to read the market form. Just wanted to let sumakianlee know that, if he is trying to follow the MO presented.

Similar to you, I found I got better results when I stopped trying to read them, but I put that down to my inexperience, so I am still trying to become more familiar with them and hope to get better over time, although I do realise that it is just one aspect and not the be all and end all.

EDIT: Maybe I can quote an early post by fti to help:

The bits that I made bold...
hello.. when i am in a trade i keep looking for patterns and how the candles look this makes me predictive often.

what i do now i look at market form on higher timeframes down to 5 min. to see if there is a trend i can into. after this i look at a 10 or 30 sec. linechart to see PA. it realy helps me to concentrate/feel

i keep analysing 5 min chart but when i see an important level i look at the line chart how price behaves.

and i never tought that every candle looks different when you zoom in.

maybe this can help.... if this is bad advice.... please respond because i don't want to point people in wrong direction even when i think it's right.

regards
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #9,917
  • Edited 3:22am Aug 25, 2009 3:12am | Edited 3:22am
Quoting j-pax
maybe this can help.... if this is bad advice.... please respond because i don't want to point people in wrong direction even when i think it's right.
It isn't for me to say if it's good or bad advice....maybe someone with more experience can comment. All I will say is that personally I am trying not to deviate from what was originally laid out in this thread so I don't look at anything shorter than the 5m charts.

Once I am more settled then I will try to find my niche as fti put it. There are one or two things I look at to help me feel the market, that are not recommended on this thread. Only time will tell if I am being foolish...
  • #9,918
  • Aug 25, 2009 3:15am Aug 25, 2009 3:15am
Quoting ukmanthailan
I don't understand how people know when they are stops sweeping. Do you mean the move from 1.4304 down to 1.4258 was just a sweep for stops?

Thanks

Mark
hey mark ,
it looked like it, i mean both the move down n up...
04,05 was lookin like a sweep zone to me (lots of s&r),
when a market moves quickly outside major timezones , volume is thin , therefore easier to move or to sweeps ,
so i simply consider it stop-sweeps , anyway my assumptions cld be wrong too ...

@j-pax , its good to look at details (30sec chart) but never forget the overall view (5m/30m)
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #9,919
  • Aug 25, 2009 3:20am Aug 25, 2009 3:20am
[quote=ukmanthailan;2987649]
Quoting j-pax
It isn't for me to say if it's good or bad advice....maybe someone with more experience can comment. All I will say is that personally I am trying not to deviate from what was originally laid out in this thread so I don't look at anything shorter than the 5m charts.

Once I am more settled then I will try to find my niche as fti put it. There are one or two things I look at to help me feel the market, that are not recommended on this thread. Only time will tell if I am being foolish...
you are right... i now feel sorry i posted my deviation.... i have done this before. mostly i do this because i like to know if i am being foolish.

like you say: "only time will tell"
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #9,920
  • Aug 25, 2009 3:26am Aug 25, 2009 3:26am
I don't see anything wrong with discussing what we do differently unless it upsets anyone else? I guess it is only for new readers that it may be confusing, but if they have read the whole thread then they will know when people are going off on a slight tangent.
25 traders viewing now