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James16+Rayanmcd(Jan kone) and ME 7 replies

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Jankone M5 thread

  • #961
  • Aug 25, 2009 12:31am Aug 25, 2009 12:31am
Quoting Jazflyer
Trader - wouldn't we still have divergence if the price line was horizontal and the rsi line was up? Just trying to get a grip on determining divergence.
Like i said earlier, your PB & RSI div. line is vertically misaligned. in other words, u plotted the RSI div.line incorrectly &/or u are looking at it incorrectly visually. if u are trying to get grips of it, then u must start by plotting it correctly.

put a vertical line (on the PB), or put on the chart's grid or use the cross hair to see what i mean. i may be wrong as i just eyeballed your chart, but this is how i see it, so do check it out.
  • #962
  • Aug 25, 2009 1:58am Aug 25, 2009 1:58am
Quoting supremeChaos
I havent seen all his charts. but based on his charts that i have seen, they seem to be plotted the "normal" way, that is, plot on the hi/low of price & RSI.

That chart of Jankone which u posted had the line plotted at the open of the PB & not at the close. i think it's just a "mannerism"/preference of Jankone not to plot lines exactly at hi/low of the price.

if u find that plotting lines on the close of a bar is better/comfortable for u, then continue to do so. otherwise, for simplicity & to avoid confusion, do it the usual way --- plot on...
Thanks Supreme - Not to belabor the point but I still see hidden bearish divergence or should I see the optometrist?

I have been following your posts here as well as the other PA forum and value your opinion.

The second pic is one where you can actually see where price was since I covered it in the first one with the vert. lines
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A lawn mower is not an effective tool to pick-up dog poop!
  • #963
  • Aug 25, 2009 2:02am Aug 25, 2009 2:02am
Guess I'm looking for absolution when there is none. After all, no one ever said it was 100% spot on. LOL
A lawn mower is not an effective tool to pick-up dog poop!
  • #964
  • Aug 25, 2009 2:11am Aug 25, 2009 2:11am
Quoting Icehocey77
Well I've been having some success with the backtesting, a couple of observations:

a. I'm surprised how well inverted pin bars work as being pullbacks, haven't really played the numbers out
Hi! What is inverted pin? You mean with the trend pins, not CT pins?
A picture, please...
THX, NL
  • #965
  • Aug 25, 2009 2:29am Aug 25, 2009 2:29am
Quoting lacika
Hi! What is inverted pin? You mean with the trend pins, not CT pins?
A picture, please...
THX, NL
The Ghous Bar right?
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A lawn mower is not an effective tool to pick-up dog poop!
  • #966
  • Aug 25, 2009 3:51am Aug 25, 2009 3:51am
Quoting Jazflyer
The Ghous Bar right?
Nope. That was not an IPB,

just a great looking pin bar at a pretty good location...

a bearish IPB (which you pointed out in your chart) has to form at a swing high (this is where it works best) or deep into a pullback to a down trend.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #967
  • Edited 4:38am Aug 25, 2009 4:20am | Edited 4:38am
Quoting ghous
Nope. That was not an IPB,

just a great looking pin bar at a pretty good location...

a bearish IPB (which you pointed out in your chart) has to form at a swing high (this is where it works best) or deep into a pullback to a down trend.

g.
Apologies, haven't really studied them yet.

Edit: in this case, are we looking to short at the opening price of the IPB and have a TP at low? Off topic but just wondering.
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  • #968
  • Aug 25, 2009 4:47am Aug 25, 2009 4:47am
lacika, Jazflyer,
if u want to learn more about IPB, check the posts i've mentioned here. Ghous discussed it there.
to stay relevant to this thread, do study IPB's & post on the james16 thread about it.
  • #969
  • Aug 25, 2009 5:07am Aug 25, 2009 5:07am
Quoting Jazflyer
Thanks Supreme - Not to belabor the point but I still see hidden bearish divergence or should I see the optometrist?
...The second pic is one where you can actually see where price was since I covered it in the first one with the vert. lines
Thanks, im relatively new compared to seasoned traders in FF.

u dont need to see an optometrist unless are very old &/or having visual problems.

Apologies for not posting charts to illustrate my points. I'm monitoring charts & avoid making posts/ specially chart posts when im trading &/or this time of day (Late Asian/London session). I trade live btw.
A benefit "offshoot" of this is i 'force' other traders to learn "faster" by being more self-reliant (u look for the things im trying to say in your own charts, without me posting charts to explain/illustrate).

where do u see hidden bear.div still?

Your first chart's vertical lines illustrate my point. u cannot plot lines inside &/or poking through the (RSI) lines themselves. we plot div. lines at the top/bottom of RSI/oscillator line, not inside.
Hope it's much clearer now


Quote
The Ghous Bar right?
that bullish PB ---as an (bearish) IPB we want them at swing highs, not at a swing low like in your chart. reverse for the bearish PB (a bullish IPB). read on the posts ive mentioned above.
  • #970
  • Aug 25, 2009 5:48am Aug 25, 2009 5:48am
where do u see hidden bear.div still?

As far as I know, when price makes a LH and an oscillator makes a HH that would qualify as hidden bearish div. This would be relevant in a downtrend upon a retrace to test the previous high thus giving us the motto "sell the rallies". Is that not what we saw? You mention the ranging for the previous 12 bars but based on the strenght, albeit on the M5 chart, of the previous down trend, when do we know it's over and this retracement isn't simply just that?
I get your point abt where to draw the div lines but in this chart example, it is simply a matter of symantics, as both ways still show this same hidden bearish divergance.

As you do this live and I do not, I defer to your judgment but I would like to know "why" I don't get it, assuming I don't that is.
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  • #971
  • Aug 25, 2009 1:35pm Aug 25, 2009 1:35pm
a nice trade.

We have a few trades, but good trades. USDJPY 5 min

sorry I canīt upload the picture
  • #972
  • Aug 25, 2009 1:48pm Aug 25, 2009 1:48pm
I took this CT pinbar with div today on the break of the pinbar a couple of bars later.

Also it was on the 4hr trendline resistance which made it even higher probability for me.
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  • #973
  • Aug 25, 2009 2:58pm Aug 25, 2009 2:58pm
Divergence for today.
I like this kind of trading and I have opened a thread with CCI divergence a few months ago.
Red line : standard
Blue line : hidden
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  • #974
  • Aug 25, 2009 3:12pm Aug 25, 2009 3:12pm
slow few days would've been nice to get a good pullback on the uptrend this morning, only trade I played...BE
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  • #975
  • Aug 25, 2009 4:03pm Aug 25, 2009 4:03pm
I'd like to say something guys.
(only for some traders here)

please and please again : Learn how the pin bar looks like.
If you don't know what''s pin bar, you can't trade.

If you can't trade, you can't get better and better in trading.

If you can't trade and you don't know when and what to trade, you can't improve your psycho, improve your money moneymanagement...


so :
1]
take time for study charts, pin bars, make your rules when to trade and when not to trade
2)demo and demo
3) focus on your psycho / money management.

it's simple.

Bad traders watch most of the time 80-90% their charts.
Good traders watch only 10-15% of the time their charts and they do care about psychology, learning from their own mistakes and money management. That's it.

YOU NEED TO KNOW WHAT'S PINBAR,IF YOU WANT TO TRADE HIM PROFITABLE, IT'S OVER AND OVER AGAIN SAME EASY THING.

So : look for material here (my profile > m5/m15 charts ), look in attachments for .pdf with pinbars HOW they should looks like and WHERE they should be - even james16 thread explains it on 2000 pages but there are still people which don't know what's pinbar)

and then trade with it.

It's really easy to get good in recognizing pin bars in your charts..
I want to help you, but I think, you understand i can't explain one chart by one why it's bad trade even why it's not a pin bar.
I dont post much, because i don't trade a lot. I can wait hours and days for good A+ setup. It's not for fun or adrenalin, it's bussiness. look at my old charts, really, there's no holy grail. same thing - over and over again.




You can do, everything you want to do.

Then it comes. DREAMS. SUCCESS.


  • #976
  • Aug 25, 2009 6:37pm Aug 25, 2009 6:37pm
Is it a good pinbar ?
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  • #977
  • Edited 7:01pm Aug 25, 2009 6:43pm | Edited 7:01pm
well my backtesting has been a tough slog, so in a way to foster some motivation to get year 2 done and to interject some discussion I'm posting my year 1 trades for the year 2001. I can't get Forextester to produce a summary the way MT4 can so I'll sum things up:

Beginning Balance: 3000
Ending Balance (2001): 3152
= 5.06% return

18 winning trades (22.7%)
15 break even (21.5%)
46 losing trades (58.2%)

total: 79 trades

Max loss: $140, 7 pip stop loss
Max win: $600, 20 pip take profit

Averaged about 3 losses per win, but did sustain a streak of 10 losers in a row.

Risking 2% on each trade, I changed from a flat 4:1 R/R with trend to a straight 20 pip TP, through some real time demo it's much easier to just do 20 versus taking the time to do the quick math to find what 4:1 would be. Still skiddish on CT trades, have been trying to focus on getting more flat markets and pulling the plug quicker if I see problems getting past the 21 EMA.
  • #978
  • Aug 25, 2009 7:44pm Aug 25, 2009 7:44pm
Thanks for posting the question. I'd like to encourage everyone to post questions as they might not only help you but others too.

Allright, I will ignore the fact that it was a CT winner (no div though) and focus solely on the "quality" of the pinbar since that is your question I understand.

The first thing I see is that it's not a big pinbar compared to the prior bars.

Second thing, It doesn't have a big wick/tail. A big wick is preferred because that shows a certain price area has been rejected. Especially with a nice trend movement prior to the pin I would like to see a big wick to convince me the trend is coming to an end.

Third thing, a good pin has the open and close near each other on the low/high of the pinbar. It appears to me that this particular pinbar has it's close almost in the middle. And I don't like that.

As said I will ignore the outcome of a possible trade and give my opinion on the pinbar. In my opinion it's a low quality pinbar.

Quoting Thierry89
Is it a good pinbar ?
  • #979
  • Aug 26, 2009 1:50am Aug 26, 2009 1:50am
Quoting Jazflyer
where do u see hidden bear.div still?
As far as I know,.......
As you do this live and I do not, I defer to your judgment but I would like to know "why" I don't get it, assuming I don't that is.
it doesnt mean that a trader trading live is necessarily better than a trader doing demo. i trade live & demo, too.

Quote
You mention the ranging for the previous 12 bars but based on the strenght, albeit on the M5 chart, of the previous down trend, when do we know it's over and this retracement isn't simply just that?
of course we can't predict these kinds of stuff. we can only look at the chart & make speculations & act accordingly.

anyway, all i'm suggesting to u is use & do the stuff that has been used by those before us: plot lines above/below price & the oscillators (RSI etc). & plot on meaningful swing highs/lows on price/RSI.
just like the chart posts before me. it's simpler & non-confusing that way.
  • #980
  • Aug 26, 2009 1:58am Aug 26, 2009 1:58am
Quoting Thierry89
Is it a good pinbar ?
i think u will get subjective replies on this question.

imho, location is more important than PA shape.
ugly PB's are tradeable if they are in good/great locations. sometimes even doji's can be traded as PB's.

location, to me, can include:
S/R,
PPZ,
Fibs,
MA's (touch/bounce of an MA, mid-BB, etc)

For beginners, u can start with good-looking PB's, then gradually incorporate the ugly PB's or PA's in your trades as u progress.
Jankone has alot of posts/charts/trades of great/good PB's.
Reading/learning the james16 thread/method will definitely help too.
Hope this helps
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