Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

I'm seeing little dojis on everything: silver, ES, YM, NQ, Dollar/Yen, Euro yen, and geppy. All on the daily charts. The thing that bothers me is all these traders being on vacation. Will there be enough momentum to start a nice bear party or will the pigmen have enough juice left to manipulate these markets up further?

I prefer Ravi Batra over Roubini. Roubini is a mainstream shill in my opinion. Him and Krugman can go bite a hog.

watch market tank Wednesday on new home sales ...... existing hone sales has a large portion of foreclosures. New home sales liekly will not be as good as expected

we have had bull trap fri / today and will start moving down tomorrow , bulls will be buying. ES will hover right on 1017 es and bulls will think wow this is holding they will buy some more. Come Wednesday when ES breaks back below 1000 they will running for the doors , Thursday es at 980 ...

of course all specualtion lol

by Bryan Rich

When the U.S. sneezed, Canada — like the rest of the world — caught its cold. And the currency of this key U.S. trading partner has since become a victim of the ebb and flow of global risk appetite.

For instance, last year, when uncertainty was high and money fled to the center of the global economy, the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar fell sharply.

Now that risk appetite has returned to the global financial markets and money is flowing back out of the U.S. dollar, Canada’s loonie has had a strong recovery. In fact, the Canadian dollar has rallied 20 percent against the U.S. dollar from its weakest point last March.

As for the economy, recovery is on track in Canada. But Canadian officials are worried about the recent strength of their currency. They’re concerned it has already dampened the path to recovery and could ultimately derail it.

Intervention Threats …

The governor of the Bank of Canada (the nation’s central bank) has said that a stronger Canadian dollar was a major risk to economic growth. And the Canadian finance minister has signaled that steps might be taken to dampen the volatility in their currency.


The loonie has had a strong rally. Now the government is threatening intervention.
These are huge statements — attempts to influence market sentiment. Of course, the next step is physically doing something about it.

Official intervention is when a central bank (or an agent of the government) buys or sells foreign currency in an attempt to influence exchange rates. In the past, many governments have intervened in foreign exchange markets to try to:

Stop the appreciation of their currency,

Defend against the depreciation of their currency,

Or to simply slow the movement of its currency.
As you can see in the chart below, the Canadian dollar (the white line) has been dragged around by the “risk” trade and has been tracking the performance of the S&P 500 (the orange line) very tightly.



Source: Bloomberg

The S&P 500 has been the proxy for risk appetite and perception of economic recovery in the U.S. As optimism about the outlook for a global recovery has gradually improved since March of this year, so has the strength of the stock market … and, therefore, so has the strength of the Canadian dollar.

Fundamentals Point
In Canada’s Favor …

The big Canadian banks managed to mostly steer clear of the load of toxic assets that crushed American and European banks. Its banking system was considered the world’s soundest last year … they required no new capital and remained profitable.


Canada implemented a $32 billion stimulus package to boost its economy.
Even so, Canada recognized the exposure of its economy to the growing global recession and acted aggressively in coordination with five other central banks to begin slashing interest rates down to near zero. In addition, Canada rolled out a fiscal stimulus package.

Still, the economic consequences from recession have been harsh for Canada, as a neighboring country that relies so heavily on the health of the U.S. economy.

Indeed, the IMF expects Canada to contract 2.3 percent and then return to an anemic 1.6 percent growth next year. Those forecasts are expected to outperform the U.S. in both 2009 and 2010.

On a relative basis then, the Canadian dollar should be outpacing the U.S. dollar. But currencies aren’t trading on relative growth right now. It’s all about the risk environment.

So if you think the fundamentals of the recovery are robust, you might expect global stock markets and the Canadian dollar to go higher. Alternatively, if you think that there are growing question marks about the sustainability of the recovery, you’re anticipating that investors will rein in risk, and stocks and the Canadian dollar will go lower.

The Technical Picture
For the Loonie …

Below is a weekly chart of the U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar exchange rate. You can see the tight downtrend from 2001 to 2007.

For Elliott Wave aficionados, this chart looks very interesting. The five wave downtrend is now being corrected through an impulsive A-wave, a corrective B-wave and a potential impulsive C-wave that projects the U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar exchange rate toward the $1.50 mark.

In others words, the technical set-up indicates a rising U.S. dollar and a sinking Canadian dollar.



Source: Bloomberg

The technical picture creates a viable bearish scenario for the Canadian dollar. And with the added element of intervention talk, betting on a lower loonie makes for an attractive risk/reward trade.

Canada has done a great job of fooling the rest of the world. There was a credit bubble here just like the US, Australia, the UK, etc. Don't even get me started on the cost of real estate here in Podunk, Saskatchewan. One of these days, Canada's treachery will be exposed.

If bond yields begin to spiral out of control, which is very possible, the US and Canada will be in big trouble. Malcomb you're in Vancouver for crying out loud the average shack there is half a million dollars. Insane!

You don't have bull markets with trailing 12 month PE ratios over 120 during the middle of a housing market crash and banking system collapse.

When trading short term it doesn't matter whether we are in a bull or bear market , it matters if you get the short term trend right and trade it effectively.

he haw....

61.8% Target hit to the PIP...170...some pips..for me.. at 154.80.. sold from 156.63...

Who would had thought you can make money while sleeping!!!!

120 ....is that al ? pretty damn insane isn't it ?

"Geppy" defintely going dn this week but does anyone find it strange that Asian session bought this pair yesterday and it was bought all through the London session upon until NY open?

Also, if the pair is so bearish why did it stop here and not take out the low at 153.60 area. . .

Maybe setting up for a run to the other side. . . Also, any notice the bullish divergence building on the 1hr chart?

These lows are getting higher and the highs are getting higher since the fall from 157.50 area. . .

I'm still short from the 162.50/163 area but just want others view on this situation. . .

Just my two cents. . .

Think there are traps.. Looks like it wants to go Higher..but its not ..

also looks like it wants to go lower.. but not breakin 153.60..

So I conclude ..Fake out will be to the Downside 152.50 area.. from there we will see.. whether its gonna go further Down.. or go Back to 158 first than 161xx...

That Bullish Divergence..I think will act like Hidden Bearish TIll its at 153- 152xx.. From there it will be fully Bullish on 1HR..

150-149 BEFORE 160.. AND HIGHER TO 165..

TODAY THE PRICE WILL SHOW HOW these so called Tripple Bottom gets Broken.. Next MONTH DOUBLE TOPS.. lol...

Q, no bullish div on hourly chart. This pair is still on track for south bound so far .. imo.

Okay. . .

To get this clear, in your 1st phrase you say it is going down while at the second you say you doubt this. How about the final 1.58/1.59 area before the big down move?
Thank you

Again, I'm short at 162.50/163 area that's my position and yes I do still think the trend is dn. . .

However, have you noticed how many times price has failed to break 153 support at these levels?

That being said I think we will see another rise higher to 158.80/159 area before we see 150. . . This would be a great sell set-up for month end. . .

Your Thoughts?

Looking for up side today

Raze-------------------they have upgrade the platform.

I can't agree more lol

way to go man..

Thank you ..:nerd:.. THANK YOU..
Today we will go to newer Levels...

good for u..sleeping working piping...hehehehehehe