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4H Box Breakout

  • #2,341
  • Aug 24, 2009 1:15pm Aug 24, 2009 1:15pm
nasir i think if you trade then you will have to accept the 1 pip miss now and then
as an individual you are up against some of the brightest brains money can buy - and programs for that matter.

if you are using sensible money management by trading 1-2% then it will do little harm

there do seem to be 2 kinds of people in this thread tho
those who want an ea - a robot they can set and forget and this system seems to work for them
and those who are looking for a system they can develop and get better returns
  • #2,342
  • Aug 24, 2009 1:16pm Aug 24, 2009 1:16pm
Quoting begbrook
geribosi I can see you profit target 15360 so would you take profits there or stick to the rules and hold for x3 or x4 ?
good question - I would prefer to stay for at least tp3 as I always open two lots one will take profit @TP1 the other will BE when it reaches TP1 - however I might monitor the 153.60 level a little more closely and observe the PA there - not sure at this point how it is going to play out - it depends a lot on asia tonight.
  • #2,343
  • Aug 24, 2009 1:18pm Aug 24, 2009 1:18pm
Quoting K7420
I lost, I lost my world, I lost my hard earned money, I lost my heart, I lost, I lost , I lost. This 1 pip cost me 135 pips. daaaaamn.
The trade shouldn't have made such a huge impact. Actually that trade wasn't even valid. Unfortunately you were unlucky a caught the trade by 1 pip. After 150 pages, and a few months of trading you should know that you should risk only 2%-3% on each trade.

So that trade shouldn't have lost you much. I see no reason for you to have "lost your heart" over this. On a brighter note, you've learned a lesson.


Guys the 20 pip buffer is there for a reason even though sometimes they may seem pointless. I didn't just pull it out of thin air. There is also a reason that the spread is added to long positions. Now I understand that a variation in spreads cost a few people, but if you know that you're spread will be 7 - 9 pips, then its a good idea to use the higher number or even 10 pips, just incase. This is one the lessons I learned back when I was demo testing this last year.

Chart is below showing the high of the candle and the box high.

To the traders who are in short right now, as I am. ATR(14) indicates that on average the market's range is 587 pips this week. That means that on average TP 4 should not be hit, but TP3 will be.

So move stops to BE after TP1 as always, and target TP3. It's a safer bet.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: no long.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #2,344
  • Aug 24, 2009 1:19pm Aug 24, 2009 1:19pm
geribosi I think you misunderstand me ... I use the all the same rules using the 4 hour box but check it every day and eliminate any trade i think is high risk or unlikely

the people who say follow the system are right

fiddle with it and at some point its no longer the same system
  • #2,345
  • Aug 24, 2009 1:27pm Aug 24, 2009 1:27pm
Quoting begbrook
nasir i think if you trade then you will have to accept the 1 pip miss now and then
as an individual you are up against some of the brightest brains money can buy - and programs for that matter.

if you are using sensible money management by trading 1-2% then it will do little harm

there do seem to be 2 kinds of people in this thread tho
those who want an ea - a robot they can set and forget and this system seems to work for them
and those who are looking for a system they can develop and get better returns
We are on the same page bro.

Risking 1%-2% is one thing but you know as per the nature of GU stops are always above 100 pips and if you even loose 1 out of 4 time it hurt's a bit and imagine the ones who are trading this system for the first time this week.
  • #2,346
  • Aug 24, 2009 1:27pm Aug 24, 2009 1:27pm
Quoting begbrook
geribosi I think you misunderstand me ... I use the all the same rules using the 4 hour box but check it every day and eliminate any trade i think is high risk or unlikely

the people who say follow the system are right

fiddle with it and at some point its no longer the same system
Begbrook - I think i did misunderstand you - however could you explain how to you go about applying this method daily?

I would be interested to try it out too.

Thanks
  • #2,347
  • Aug 24, 2009 1:29pm Aug 24, 2009 1:29pm
there you have it

ace has the stats - tp3 is fairly safe 4x is less likely but if you wait it will be profitable

I have been trading a while now - years not months - and admit I have seen in the past a good profit evaporate while waiting for things to take off

So i am biased.

I am also trading for an income not for investment.

its a matter of why you are trading and your tolerance levels

I believe this was also a problem for the origional turtle system.it came good in the end but many bailed out too soon only to regret it.

this system does seem to be quite flexable tho...
  • #2,348
  • Aug 24, 2009 1:30pm Aug 24, 2009 1:30pm
nasir my point was if I were trading this system for the first time this week I would not have set the long..yet

They would now be in profit...and happy bunnies
  • #2,349
  • Aug 24, 2009 1:39pm Aug 24, 2009 1:39pm
its straight forward geribosi and not really a variation on the basic system

all the system is doing is giving you a bias for the market for the week.

and it seems to work from what I traded and from my backtesting.


however i am trading for income so I lock in profits daily or so. I am not happy watching a weeks risk turn into b/e or loss.

so i do the same exercise every morning at 1 am gmt and look to see if the targets etc make sense with basic s/r with the hindsight of whats happened so far

anything high risk I dont bother with - like this morning

i look at it as normal daily trade and set my profits accordingly.

often the trade will go over several days or even a week but instead of just having an automatic system target i have had to justify a target to myself.


I am not suggesting anyone do this as from what i can see this system works well as is - it has great pedigree! - but I personaly cannot trade weekly or longer

Ok accept maybe in the wrong thread
  • #2,350
  • Aug 24, 2009 1:39pm Aug 24, 2009 1:39pm
Quoting begbrook
there you have it

ace has the stats - tp3 is fairly safe 4x is less likely but if you wait it will be profitable

I have been trading a while now - years not months - and admit I have seen in the past a good profit evaporate while waiting for things to take off

So i am biased.

I am also trading for an income not for investment.

its a matter of why you are trading and your tolerance levels

I believe this was also a problem for the origional turtle system.it came good in the end but many bailed out too soon only to regret it.

this system does...

Frankly, I have tested results for both TP4 and TP3 and results are slightly better for TP3. 1-2% better. It is quite a reasonable target for this pair.
  • #2,351
  • Aug 24, 2009 1:58pm Aug 24, 2009 1:58pm
There you go ...thats basically what Ace said ...so now you have two people who have backetested and found x3 to be probably the best weekly target

and Im very tempted to let this week run

problem is most wont bother backtesting ( and they should ..in my opinion)....and i do understand it... for one someone else will always do it for you ( tho maybe not to your standards) and there is always a feeling that earlier years are jusrt not relevent condition wise to now

I have data from 2001 ... but am not confident that market conditions are that relevent in 2001!

however s/r are s/r whatever the date.you can learn a lot grinding though the data even if you dont think you are

let me make this clear

I am not crit this system...I have found this system to very profitable indeed
its just I am looking at it from an income point of view as opposed to the investment one
  • #2,352
  • Aug 24, 2009 1:59pm Aug 24, 2009 1:59pm
Quoting begbrook
its straight forward geribosi and not really a variation on the basic system

all the system is doing is giving you a bias for the market for the week.

and it seems to work from what I traded and from my backtesting.


however i am trading for income so I lock in profits daily or so. I am not happy watching a weeks risk turn into b/e or loss.

so i do the same exercise every morning at 1 am gmt and look to see if the targets etc make sense with basic s/r with the hindsight of whats happened so far

anything high risk I dont bother with...
Begbrook,

you look at a new box every day, right ? So tomorrows box will be different from todays one, and you will evaluate if you enter a breakout of the new box. Did I catch it ?
  • #2,353
  • Aug 24, 2009 2:08pm Aug 24, 2009 2:08pm
Quoting begbrook
there do seem to be 2 kinds of people in this thread tho
those who want an ea - a robot they can set and forget and this system seems to work for them
and those who are looking for a system they can develop and get better returns
That's true of just about every thread I've read on FF. It just seems to be human nature at work.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,354
  • Aug 24, 2009 2:12pm Aug 24, 2009 2:12pm
hi all,

anyone taken the eurjpy short yet?
Attached Image
  • #2,355
  • Aug 24, 2009 2:15pm Aug 24, 2009 2:15pm
yes

the short should have set from this morning ?
  • #2,356
  • Aug 24, 2009 2:19pm Aug 24, 2009 2:19pm
Quoting hutchy
hi all,

anyone taken the eurjpy short yet?
I have - it looks like will be going the same way - eur seems set for a pullback on dollar strength - and it looks like Yen will have a strong rally this week - so it could be the good week for tp2 in EJ - could see as low as 132.50
  • #2,357
  • Aug 24, 2009 2:19pm Aug 24, 2009 2:19pm
Quoting begbrook
yes

the short should have set from this morning ?
He's referring to EUR/JPY.


And yes Hutchy, the trade has been activated.
  • #2,358
  • Aug 24, 2009 2:38pm Aug 24, 2009 2:38pm
Quoting Ace284
He's referring to EUR/JPY.


And yes Hutchy, the trade has been activated.
cheers ace, seems to be alot of highly strung members on this thread
  • #2,359
  • Aug 24, 2009 2:42pm Aug 24, 2009 2:42pm
Quoting geribosi
I have - it looks like will be going the same way - eur seems set for a pullback on dollar strength - and it looks like Yen will have a strong rally this week - so it could be the good week for tp2 in EJ - could see as low as 132.50
i have my tp2 set at 132.86

do you have another way of calculating the tp's?
  • #2,360
  • Aug 24, 2009 2:48pm Aug 24, 2009 2:48pm
Quoting hutchy
i have my tp2 set at 132.86

do you have another way of calculating the tp's?
You should follow the standard calculation as per ace's original rules - I also always look at daily level for S/R - I believe in one of his posts ace mentioned he does too.
This site is very good for calculationg your major areas of s/r - just enter the high and low of the previous day. Hope it helps

http://pivotpointcalculator.com/Default.aspx
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