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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #190,701
  • Aug 23, 2009 3:35pm Aug 23, 2009 3:35pm
raza, i do not know of any pattern with 100% success rate. in general nothing is impossible. and especially nowadays, you need to be careful what you do. i am only trading confirmed patterns, so in this case a confirmation would be a CLEAR break of 153 area. and even then, i would be skeptical.

try to think like market manipulators. we all know that global economy is going bankrupt, and everybody is waiting for the drop. we are all trying to position for this, but for small guys like us it is essential to jump in as close as possible to tops/bottoms - otherwise you blow up your account. big sharks know this and they try to shake us out, and one of the MOST FREQUENT strategy is to manipulate mass-media and markets to make us believe that market is going into the other direction... please note, i said AND markets = there will be a push upwards to shake all shorts. and this is what we will see in the next couple of weeks: market rallies and encouraging news. and every tom, dick and harry going long at the top.

or i'm way off and i better mind my own business and shut up.

Quoting Raza
Thats exactly why...seeing this tiny tripple bottom.. comparing it to last time..expecting same results...aint gonna Happen...IMO..

Double top on daily is much Bigger than your hourly tripple Bottom...IMO. Take that as a LEFT shoulder of the Head its Gonna MAKE..(INVERTED SHAMPOO)

pUT IT THIS WAY ..IT goes back to 157... then what do you have there..another TRIPPLE TOP..AFTER TRIPPLE BOTTOM????

OF COURSE I COULD BE WRONG..PA WILL TELL...also Divergence..We are in NO MANS LAND...ATM..
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #190,702
  • Aug 23, 2009 3:36pm Aug 23, 2009 3:36pm
Quoting sblank
If i have something in error I apologize. how about a point and counter-point instead of a slam.

no error in this...u agreed to my view but in the chart u post it far different from my set up and can u clarify what those 1-2-3 counting means..thanks u ..



Raza aint u going to break what time u break out there..over here we already done getting reading to sleep
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #190,703
  • Aug 23, 2009 3:37pm Aug 23, 2009 3:37pm
Quoting sblank
If i have something in error I apologize. how about a point and counter-point instead of a slam.
Was not a slam...... just did not make sense..(post#1- contradicts..post#2) ..after seeing your chart..

Don .. break is far from now 4Hrs .. from now.. 15- 16 hour Fasting..in Summer...
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #190,704
  • Edited 4:03pm Aug 23, 2009 3:51pm | Edited 4:03pm
Quoting Scrat
raza, i do not know of any pattern with 100% success rate. in general nothing is impossible. and especially nowadays, you need to be careful what you do. i am only trading confirmed patterns, so in this case a confirmation would be a CLEAR break of 153 area. and even then, i would be skeptical.

try to think like market manipulators. we all know that global economy is going bankrupt, and everybody is waiting for the drop. we are all trying to position for this, but for small guys like us it is essential to jump in as close as possible to tops/bottoms...

I agree..There are patterns in patterns...A-B-C Corrections all over the place..one after another..

I am saying 150-149..cause of reverse Motive Wave.. from 163..which has un finished business... also looking at the Cup from 147- 163.. its making a handle..and a Big one.. around 150- 149.

If G/J needs to go Up..it needs to go down First..cAuse if it goes UP first..Its not going to continue UP..If it goes down first..angle/symmetry is such that it can Rise Again.. to make a new High.(165..max. first time).

Its gonna be a Choppy Market..So many things ..so many Patterns.. on Different time frames...CONFUSION...

So I am scalping.. for now..DOW wants to go Higher..IT will. but not in a straight line..Its gonna be Choppy..and a Circus.. for 2 more weeks..IMO..

DOW 9700...then down to 888xx.then up tp 9860.and Above.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #190,705
  • Aug 23, 2009 3:53pm Aug 23, 2009 3:53pm
Quoting donfriday
no error in this...u agreed to my view but in the chart u post it far different from my set up and can u clarify what those 1-2-3 counting means..thanks u ..



Raza aint u going to break what time u break out there..over here we already done getting reading to sleep
I am seeing three tests of 161.00 without an initial breakout of above on third try. Just thinking we have a short lived break lower before we start heading for 161 end of this week. We do have a triple top short term last week on the 4hr but with my broker the closes on the tops are lower highs. I am just watching the movement to see if we test and break 153.00. If it does I think the stay below will be short. Then turn for the trek up to 161.00.
  • #190,706
  • Aug 23, 2009 3:56pm Aug 23, 2009 3:56pm
Wish You All (muslim brothers) a Happy Fasting Month Ramadhan . May this month brings us MORE AND MORE PIPS
  • #190,707
  • Aug 23, 2009 4:05pm Aug 23, 2009 4:05pm
Quoting Raza
I agree..There are patterns in patterns...A-B-C Corrections all over the place..one after another..

I am saying 150-149..cause of reverse Motive Wave.. from 163..which has un finished business... also looking at the Cup from 147- 163.. its making a handle..and a Big one.. around 150- 149.

If G/J needs to go Up..it needs to go down First..cAuse if it goes UP first..Its not going to continue UP..If it goes down first..angle/symmetry is such that it can Rise Again.. to make a new High.(165..max. first time).

Its gonna be a Choppy Market..So many...

hmm for the past when u had my big crash i decide not to trust anything in forex..there is no holy grail so all we need is pips , we just need some view to pick the market direction......dont trade cus they say..plan ur trade and trade your plan ....
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #190,708
  • Aug 23, 2009 4:13pm Aug 23, 2009 4:13pm
very interesting observations on valuations of s&p ...note last paragraph right now we are trading at twice the P/E before the DJ went form 12000 to 7000 ... TWICE !!!! when the economy is just coming out of a recession ...does this mean we will see 6500 once more ? who knows we should see some form of correction over the next 6 months as the s&p is grossly overvalued

Key Observations based on the above Charts

  1. As on 30th June 2009, the S&P was trading at a P/E (As per TTM EPS) of 22.99 based on operating earnings. During the same period S&P 500 was trading at a P/E of 117.56 based on reported earnings.

  1. Currently (22nd August 2009) the S&P is trading at a P/E of 25.67 and 131.2 based on operating earnings and reported earnings respectively.

  1. Based on operating earnings, the S&P valuation has not gone above 29.5 (on a quarterly basis) since 1988. The S&P was trading at these valuations during the peak of the U.S. stock market bubble in the year 2000. Thus, the current P/E of 25.6, just one year after the world saw one of the worst financial crisis, is relatively very expensive in my opinion.

  1. The data looks even more interesting based on reported earnings of S&P 500 companies. The highest P/E (on a quarterly basis) based on reported earnings was 46.4 during 2001-02. Currently the S&P 500 is trading at a P/E of well over 100. Thus the S&P 500 index is terribly overvalued based on reported earnings.

Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #190,709
  • Aug 23, 2009 4:19pm Aug 23, 2009 4:19pm
Quoting england33
Small improvements expected in the data

Manufacturing has momentum, but consumers are still down

[b]...
I love the bi ticket orders .... airplanes and washing machines ..lol... those must be some very expensive washing machines !!!
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #190,710
  • Aug 23, 2009 4:26pm Aug 23, 2009 4:26pm
Dow has retraced 38%.. fall from 14000.

S&P same..

50% retrace sits at for DOW. AROUND 10400.APPROX.major support at 8300.xx RSI ..almost OS..weekly.

50% retrace for S&P....1120. major support at 882.xx.. RSI is OS..on S&P.. weekly..

Dont know how are they gonna take it to 50%... it has to be in a straight line????
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #190,711
  • Aug 23, 2009 4:32pm Aug 23, 2009 4:32pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I love the bi ticket orders .... airplanes and washing machines ..lol... those must be some very expensive washing machines !!!

yeah....wait...I am trying to find the other item...airplanes
Attached Image
  • #190,712
  • Aug 23, 2009 4:36pm Aug 23, 2009 4:36pm
Quoting I like steak
yeah....wait...I am trying to find the other item...airplanes
got it...Howard's Spruce Goose...
Attached Image
  • #190,713
  • Aug 23, 2009 4:38pm Aug 23, 2009 4:38pm
Quoting Raza
Dow has retraced 38%.. fall from 14000.

S&P same..

50% retrace sits at for DOW. AROUND 10400.APPROX.major support at 8300.xx

50% retrace for S&P....1120. major support at 882.xx.. RSI is OS..on S&P..
I doubt very much that we will see those 50% retracement levels.....in a week time Europe will be back from their long summer holidays and September will start! Expect a major downmove, if not a collapse, during September. All the fundamentals, as often repeated here by Malcolm, will come into play all at once! Until then, this week I expect everything to continue climbing. From Gold to S&P, from Oil to gbp/yen. Hopefully I am right on this one so that we get finally over it and can start with the long awaited downmoves.
{Promotion Removed}
  • #190,714
  • Aug 23, 2009 4:40pm Aug 23, 2009 4:40pm
Looking at the PA...Drop is Coming...imo.. 152.28.. lets see.

Rsi need some rest..1HR..unless they have Different Plans.. 157.00 is good short.. IMO..
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #190,715
  • Aug 23, 2009 4:40pm Aug 23, 2009 4:40pm
Quoting Scrat
raza, i do not know of any pattern with 100% success rate. in general nothing is impossible. and especially nowadays, you need to be careful what you do. i am only trading confirmed patterns, so in this case a confirmation would be a CLEAR break of 153 area. and even then, i would be skeptical.

try to think like market manipulators. we all know that global economy is going bankrupt, and everybody is waiting for the drop. we are all trying to position for this, but for small guys like us it is essential to jump in as close as possible to tops/bottoms...

the sunday posts just get better - top man scrat and thanks
  • #190,716
  • Aug 23, 2009 4:42pm Aug 23, 2009 4:42pm
Quoting azibi
I doubt very much that we will see those 50% retracement levels.....in a week time Europe will be back from their long summer holidays and September will start! Expect a major downmove, if not a collapse, during September. All the fundamentals, as often repeated here by Malcolm, will come into play all at once! Until then, this week I expect everything to continue climbing. From Gold to S&P, from Oil to gbp/yen. Hopefully I am right on this one so that we get finally over it and can start with the long awaited downmoves.

Thats what I am saying...IT is OVERSOLD..almost..may be By miracle.. it will make it to 50%..with a Huge Spike..
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #190,717
  • Aug 23, 2009 4:44pm Aug 23, 2009 4:44pm
The recently passed “cash for clunkers” program (currently on-hold, as it ran out of funding in one week) is a perfect example of how government policy can make the economy worse. By incentivizing Americans to destroy fully paid-for cars so they can go deeper into debt buying brand new ones, the government weakens an already crippled economy.

I came up with this on my own .... lets see .... 3 billion invested and all we have now is
1) Americans have more debt than they did 3 billion tax payers dollars ago. The reason they were driving paid off clunkers was cause they could NOT afford new car
2) the dealers are saying the approvals are taking time and that in fact the purchasers of the new cars may not get 4500 for the clunker .. they may have to pony up money they do not have
3) OR they bring the new car back ( that is now a used car and the dealers lose money when they sell used cars ) and get the clunker back ... this is assuming that the dealer held onto it and did not sell it at auction already !!!

wow .. the US economy reminds me of a hurricane ... 2008 was one side of the storm , 2009 in the eye of the storm ( been in one or 2 hurricanes .. time to cook food on bbq outside) ... and 2010/ 2011 is the other side of the storm , but with the false support of trillions thrown at the market the storm has now gained momomentum around us...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #190,718
  • Aug 23, 2009 4:47pm Aug 23, 2009 4:47pm
Am sure many of you guys remember Queecy's last posts here. One more move up to 158/159 level and down all the way.....143/148 level! I stick to that.
{Promotion Removed}
  • #190,719
  • Aug 23, 2009 4:53pm Aug 23, 2009 4:53pm
sorry but this is also a great read ...

Peter shiff ... wow he tells is like it is ...

and look at what he says about housing prices ... makes sense back to historic trendline ...34% more to come off yet , maybe more.

lol I love the line what good is a 200 k house if it costs you that to fill the fridge ...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1393...e-isn-t-pretty
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #190,720
  • Aug 23, 2009 5:01pm Aug 23, 2009 5:01pm
with much respect and as good as this thread is we have a new news presenter that stated a while ago'' dont listen to the news '' and a ranging market - why because they ( fat cats ) are on holiday if you day trade thats fair enough get in and out quick but if your looking to short this baby wait on the dj for a signal otherwise chillout theres really nothing to worry about if you have the patience
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