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  • #3,001
  • Edited 8:24pm Aug 22, 2009 7:56pm | Edited 8:24pm
Quoting HiddenGap
While Chalk is quoted above, this response is not directed at him. These are my thoughts for whatever they may be worth.

I posted a chart and asked if somebody could see a long entry signal on the chart. I got a few responses and am very grateful for them. I have spent most of last night and today looking at that chart. WITH 100% HINDSIGHT I HAVE SEEN SOME THINGS I MISSED IN REALTIME. NOW I HAVE AN UNDERSTANDING I DID NOT HAVE AS THE CHART UNFOLDED. I CALL THAT LEARNING.

I have attached the chart with letters, but will not be leaving...

Hello HiddenGap. Thanks for that post. Let met say that i do share 100% of your last post and can also understand your frustration.

Unfortunately, more often than not, most great threads always more or less diverge from their original goals as people are more interesting in the "bells and whisles" than the trading methodology.

I agree with you that Shamus has started a really great thread about VSA and how to trade it that have attracted great traders that use VSA in their trading plan like yourself, Malcombl14, Islander, TwoBuckChuck, Yuppie, shamus and some others.

That is sad that we see more posts about indicators than VSA teaching. This is one reason why i am not very much inclined to post much charts analysis or active in it.

That would be a great idea to have a live video chatting room opened exclusively for looking at live trading using VSA and not discussing about indicators.

I do not have anything against indicators per se, as i use some of them for spotting S and R levels, but things should be put into perspective and in their proper place.

So, in brief, it would be great if people, on this thread, focus more on learning VSA setups than asking questions about which indicators we are using (which in fact, is a subconscious trick to try to get the "holly grail" indicator that will do the job for us instead of properly learning how to recognize high probabilities VSA setups. That is if we are honest with ourselves)

So, people, please stay focus on VSA setups learning so to make this thread even more worth reading and studying.

P.S. Shamus, of course, if my post is too much of a rant, you can remove it.


The only thing is that i dont want to see your great effort to discuss VSA here go in the shadow and the time and effort of the participation of the great traders on this board disappear as it has been the case in so many others VSA threads on others forums as people were less and less talking about VSA setups and learning and more about indicators and so on.

Shreem
  • #3,002
  • Aug 22, 2009 8:32pm Aug 22, 2009 8:32pm
Quoting D-ramon
Could you point out first entry?

Thanks

opps!!!!! just getting caught up on tread!!!!!! just noticed you addressed this THANKS FOR YOUR DEDICATION TO THE THREAD!!!

D-RAMON
short entry was end of day Friday 1.4347

here is why

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,003
  • Aug 22, 2009 10:07pm Aug 22, 2009 10:07pm
Quoting shreem
Hello HiddenGap and TwoBuckChuck.
Just wanted to say a big thanks to both for your posts....
Agree with shreem here...
awesome, back to back lengthy posts by these two.



malcolmb14,
Congratulations for breaching the 10,000th post mark.
u have been contributing a lot & sharing your insights.
God bless & more green pips to u!
  • #3,004
  • Aug 22, 2009 11:44pm Aug 22, 2009 11:44pm
Quoting malcolmb14
short entry was end of day Friday 1.4347

here is why

Attachment
Malcolmb, hiddingap, 2buck!!!! just want to say thank for all your insight.... I take every chart and analisys and study everything you guys are pointing out. The same setups happen over and over agian. We who are learning just have to see it enough times in order that at some point we can pick it up real time!!!!! Which will end up growing a live account instead of blowing one out.... We learn through repitition. There is no way one can pick this up by looking at it once or twice. There is no holly grail!!!! I also want to say because of your insights my learning curve is going way down and I should be abel to contribute soooooooon!!!!

Thanks guys for all that you are doing your humble student...

D-ramon
  • #3,005
  • Aug 23, 2009 12:01am Aug 23, 2009 12:01am
Quoting chalk54
I thought that was what VSA was all about. Right, that we have to be able, based on VSA to predict where the trade will/may go. There is just too much historical analysis here for my taking. I appreciate the fact that some are adding future volumes to their analysis. To be true to myself, I did not get anywhere until I added future volumes and MP (my style) to my analysis.

Lets try to VSA any chart at the very right hand edge and maybe some of us would learn something new if not making our lean purses a daint heavier in the process.

Weekend...

Hey,

I know you trade off of higher time frame charts which is great!!! I also believe that the higher time frames allow a longer term perspective that takes out a lot of the noise that one experiences on the lower time frame charts.(my opinion) I value all analysis that is sound and well explained. I would love to look at long term charts using VSA principles to gain an understanding of possible price targets the currency may be heading too. Please if you have time please place charts with your analysis using your VSA principles explaining how you come up with your value area targets and sound entry points and see what we all can learn and take to the bank!!!!

Thanks

D-ramon
  • #3,006
  • Aug 23, 2009 1:18am Aug 23, 2009 1:18am
Quoting malcolmb14
short entry was end of day Friday 1.4347

here is why

Attachment
Hey Malcolm

Just to offer a contrarian point of view and put a spanner in the works, On your first sign of weakness, I've always called that strength, reason being its a breakout bar thru res and held which means its a leg up....the bar that you marked as attempt at distribution is in fact a mark down thru that supp range to suck in the weak shorts and is bought up by the pros, hence another leg up, just a few thoughts......
Never said I was Batman,all I'm saying is you'll never see us together.
  • #3,007
  • Aug 23, 2009 2:14am Aug 23, 2009 2:14am
Quoting lumesh
2buck, you said that 5m futures vol analysis is not accurate ?

have you seen that some traders here use 1M and 15 sec vol analysis
I was not referring to the time-frame in any way, only the relative volume differences between futures and spot volume.

Quoting chalk54
Lets try to VSA any chart at the very right hand edge and maybe some of us would learn something new if not making our lean purses a daint heavier in the proccess....
I was only offering an opinion on the chart that was posted.
  • #3,008
  • Aug 23, 2009 3:06am Aug 23, 2009 3:06am
Quoting headfake
Hey Malcolm

Just to offer a contrarian point of view and put a spanner in the works, On your first sign of weakness, I've always called that strength, reason being its a breakout bar thru res and held which means its a leg up....the bar that you marked as attempt at distribution is in fact a mark down thru that supp range to suck in the weak shorts and is bought up by the pros, hence another leg up, just a few thoughts......
Very nice first post.

I have attached a shoot of Malcolmb's chart.

I would agree that the wide spread up candle on ultra high volume is Strength. While markets do not like up bars on ultra high volume, in this case it is "pushing thru supply". The heavy volume represents a willingness of the BBs to buy at higher prices. If the BBs are willing to buy at high prices they must be expecting EVEN HIGHER prices.

Note that this EB7 creates a Supply/Demand Delta Zone and note how price has reacted as it has tried to move into it. Clearly a change in the supply/demand dynamic happened on that EB7.

To be sure, some supply did enter on that candle. However note that the supply only moves the market sideways. The fact that it moves the market sideways and is not able to move it down, bespeaks of an underlying strength in the market.

The bar marked attempt at distribution is a "Key Reversal Bar" type. Notice that it makes a lower low than the previous bar. Opens higher than the previous close and closes higher than the previous bar, and higher than its open. This is bullish. In this case there is not down move to reverse from, but it still shows the strength.

Once again, headfake, nice work. Looking forward to many more charts and analysis from you.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #3,009
  • Aug 23, 2009 3:29am Aug 23, 2009 3:29am
2buck said: "I'd be careful using futures volume on the lower timeframes, it can be deceiving."

that post got me confusing since you did mention the timeframes

anyway, i'll not be using spot vol as long as don't have the right feed. Futures volume is ok till then.
  • #3,010
  • Edited 9:13am Aug 23, 2009 3:34am | Edited 9:13am
Quoting malcolmb14
short entry was end of day Friday 1.4347

here is why

Attachment

testing supply on low vol OR traders leaving the office for weekend. I'd be careful including this bar in the vsa setup in friday evening.
  • #3,011
  • Edited 7:42am Aug 23, 2009 7:40am | Edited 7:42am
Quoting Obaidah
something like tradeguider, still under development but i dont have enough time, the next step would be using bolinger bands to identify high and low volumes, just attack Volume Spread Analyzer to your chart.

for more information read the source code, it'll tell you better.

edit: structural change will be made later in order to make it less cpu consuming, and i'll work on fixing some signals.


Just wondering if anyone has tried these indicators? I cannot get the spread analyser to work...and wondering if it works for anyone else?
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Spread Analyzer.mq4   5 KB | 948 downloads
File Type: mq4 Volume Spread Analyzer.mq4   16 KB | 1,158 downloads
  • #3,012
  • Aug 23, 2009 9:01am Aug 23, 2009 9:01am
Quoting farizu
Just wondering if anyone has tried these indicators? I cannot get the spread analyser to work...and wondering if it works for anyone else?
The first one is a helper indicator for the second one. It's been designed not to print anything to the screen in isolation.

I did try it a while back, and it does seem to indicate some important bars, but I no longer have it on my charts, as I've gotten accustomed to reading charts.
  • #3,013
  • Aug 23, 2009 9:46am Aug 23, 2009 9:46am
Quoting lumesh
testing supply on low vol OR traders leaving the office for weekend. I'd be careful including this bar in the vsa setup in friday evening.

thanks .. already short ... that high vol up bar was sold into . I guess if I get hammered is was just a vsa novice mistake....

why is dj at new year high but GS not even close and got sold into on Friday at 165 ?
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  • #3,014
  • Aug 23, 2009 10:12am Aug 23, 2009 10:12am
Quoting headfake
Hey Malcolm

Just to offer a contrarian point of view and put a spanner in the works, On your first sign of weakness, I've always called that strength, reason being its a breakout bar thru res and held which means its a leg up....the bar that you marked as attempt at distribution is in fact a mark down thru that supp range to suck in the weak shorts and is bought up by the pros, hence another leg up, just a few thoughts......
yeah dj is liekly going to 9800 or higher this week anyway that would take eur to 1.4600 minimum. My stop is set tight

we had another few banks go down this weekend , one of them made it on the 12th largest banks of us to go down and fdic has gone to the feds looking for 100 billion as they have run out of money . The market will shake this off as once again the feds will just give fdic 100 mill of tax payers money.

somewhere around October this year we are going to be at dj 10400

IF and only if the rules are changed once more on mark to market will the average joe american come to know what state the banks are really in . Mark to market comes back banks profit will drop 30 % or more. This may happen in dec of 2010 by which time we could be at dj 11262 .

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  • #3,015
  • Aug 23, 2009 10:13am Aug 23, 2009 10:13am
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  • #3,016
  • Edited 11:19am Aug 23, 2009 10:53am | Edited 11:19am
IF and only if the rules are changed once more on mark to market will the average joe american come to know what state the banks are really in . Mark to market comes back banks profit will drop 30 % or more. This may happen in dec of 2010 by which time we could be at dj 11262 .

Attachment [/quote]

that's where i have my stops for the Dow jones @11200--
if the market is going to collapse ---am afraid thats the spot.
and if it moves pass that,then hey all bets are off--14800

am beginning to think sometimes "smart money" decide what
the economy is going to look like--there are plenty of bad news
out there and some good news(at least some banks dont want tarp money
reducing the U.s deficit by a tiny margin, hey i'll take it--unemployment down 9.4 from 9.6% --will see what the next one looks like,some investors are buying home builders stock--unbeleivable..lol..mainly housing got Us
into this mess--i think its going to get US out--i keep looking at housing figures)..

its just funny--when smart money leaves the market--economy collapes
and when they get back in--all of a sudden, its morning in america again.

maybe we should just focus more on what SM's are doing--because this guys
are always ahead of the game, and by the time you think things are great
they leave you holding the bag--and they are out again.

check this out---this is 8-9 months ago--when people dare not buy b/c
bad news out there--not sm's--thts why i ssaid at least 9600---would be very rich now, if i was invested...lol--
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  • #3,017
  • Aug 23, 2009 11:13am Aug 23, 2009 11:13am
Quoting malcolmb14
thanks .. already short ... that high vol up bar was sold into . I guess if I get hammered is was just a vsa novice mistake....

why is dj at new year high but GS not even close and got sold into on Friday at 165 ?

for what ? didn't give you anything useful...just my thoughts that are worth nothing

actually, the pros are digging through the FF and this thread particularly as hard as they can. And then they noticed that Malc is calling shorts for quite some time now. So they can't sell just jet, on the contrary, they are sweating their pants off to mark up the DJ to 20 000, eur to 2.0 just to make you bullish ...if you don't give up with the shorts they will eventually be ruined and you get banned from all the forex brokers out there.
  • #3,018
  • Aug 23, 2009 4:53pm Aug 23, 2009 4:53pm
Quoting malcolmb14
short entry was end of day Friday 1.4347

here is why

Attachment
This is what I mean.......... Great post and cheers
  • #3,019
  • Aug 23, 2009 5:15pm Aug 23, 2009 5:15pm
Quoting taomql4
IF and only if the rules are changed once more on mark to market will the average joe american come to know what state the banks are really in . Mark to market comes back banks profit will drop 30 % or more. This may happen in dec of 2010 by which time we could be at dj 11262 .

Attachment

Despite savage pullbacks from their mid-decade highs the nation's biggest homebuilders are still overvalued. The S&P 500 is down 4% since the last housing boom began in January 1998. But over that time, Toll Brothers (TOL), Pulte Home (PHM) and D.R. Horton (DRI) are up 195%, 100%, and 97% respectively. The truth is, America's current inventory of homes will last at least a generation or more. These stocks are still not priced accordingly.

check this post on home builders stock ....

dri came within 10 % of its all time highs when house prices were sky rocket high ......whereas the other 2 much less.... mmm....I think on next rally on DRI i am going to short it for move back down to 20 (about 37 to 40)


will be watching this one on daily for an upthrust or no demand bar in $37 to 40 area and then will get 38 puts , slightly out of the money so will be nice and cheap.

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Despite savage pullbacks from their mid-decade highs the nation's biggest homebuilders are still overvalued. The S&P 500 is down 4% since the last housing boom began in January 1998. But over that time, Toll Brothers (TOL), Pulte Home (PHM) and D.R. Horton (DRI) are up 195%, 100%, and 97% respectively. The truth is, America's current inventory of homes will last at least a generation or more. These stocks are still not priced accordingly.
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  • #3,020
  • Aug 23, 2009 7:36pm Aug 23, 2009 7:36pm
Hey guys,

Im looking for a short... looking for some opinion on the analysis posted below.

Cheers,

MM
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