Steviet's Live Trades!

Steve sorry to hear about your family glad to hear your kid is doing better though. Things always seem to come in threes

Stay strong buddy! My Thoughts with you

Mike

This only reiterates that you're on the right track and over time, trades will pan out.

You know this, I know this, I'm just restating the obvious.

Keep hanging in there, the discipline is key here and if nothing else, you're giving this strategy an intense real world test where situations come up and don't always go as planned.

Best wishes for the all of the non-trading events surfacing, I hope everyone pulls through A-OK.

You're doing well Steve!

Steve,
wow....

on the negative side,
go on & blow off some steam off of us here in FF...
do update us, if possible.
sometimes, good or bad things happen all at the same time. This happens to all of us.
on the positive side, u have been doing well, trading wise. Continue posting here to help alleviate some stress.

Dont forget, bad things sometimes happen to good people..
God bless, stay steadfast, good luck & take care....

OK, I'm so pissed off I really am....

Being pissed off is wasting your energy brother.

As you know James is still in Portugal recovering from his collapsed lung. What I didn't tell you earlier was that whilst away my auntie also suffered a stroke & my elder sister was hospitalised with something that affects one in 5 million people!

I'm sorry to hear about your family Steve. My thoughts and prayers are with them and you.

Right, that over with lets see how trading has been....

Backtesting this method it averages a yearly return of around 30% over the last 6 years, nothing spectacular but OK as a start. The last 6 months it has really come into its own, making over 100%.

So, Steve starts trading it live and through June made 11%, pretty good. July was sticky as we were stuck in a tight range so overall was only up a few %.
Damn man! 11% is good. July sounds good too.

And onto this week. I was supposed to be back trading Monday but as we missed the flight by 2 minutes due to complications I couldn't get home until Wednesday. Monday turns out to have been the best day since I started live with this on June 15th.

Missed trades this week

Monday Long 1.42086, closed 1.44127 (+204 pips, 8.16%)
Tuesday Short 1.44163 closed 1.44286 (-12 pips, -0.48%)
Wednesday Long 1.43926 closed 1.43586 (-25 pips, -1%)

Well, you missed one winner and 2 losers. 2 to 1. Think of it that way. Actually, don't think about it at all. In the past, I've taken losses of 500 pips (if you remember that blowout) only to come back and make it all back in a weeks time. Lesson here is to not dwell on the past.
Yesterday traded and lost 1%, today NFP spiked to stop my short and would now be nearly 8% up.
Would be's, could be's and should be's don't even matter. If it's not a realization then it's nothing my man. I could have made 800 pips this week...did I? Nope. That means that it is nothing to me. Would be's don't fill my bank account. Lost dreams don't fill my bank account. My realized trades do. Focus on those.
So, what shouldve been a 15% week has ended up as a losing week. I sometimes wonder.
I hope you do the right thing right now and focus not on a losing week, but on realizing how you can maximise yourself along with the week ahead. I love you man for everything you've done for me so CHEER UP. I stayed in this business partly because of your journal when my stuff was going to shit completely. I saw your journal at plus equity EVERY WEEK. How are you gonna let one week mess up your shit? Don't.
Have a great weekend all
You too brother. get out and get your mind off everything. Go for a run. seriously. Go sit by a lake and realize how beautiful it is. Just do something and don't wallow in defeat....because you are NOT defeated.
Steve[/quote]

thoughts are with u steve...
times can be tough and all we can do is get through them..stay strong brother!

Thanks Dan,

Things sure have been tough recently but I'll get through it, I always do

Steve

Cheers Mike & thanks for your pms too

James is now home and doing well and my youngest (Scott) is also back from his holiday so it feels like things are getting back to normal again.

Trading was tough again last week but thats OK, just have to stick to the rules and let it do its thing.

Still playing cricket & last two weekends got a couple of 50's (lol, chances are as an American you haven't got a clue what that means hehe) so maybe things are starting to look up

Looking forward to the week ahead & again thanks Mike, your words mean a lot man.

Steve

LOL, yes I was having a bad day wasn't I?

Mike,

Great to hear from you my friend

As always you speak a lot of sense & I'm altogether in a better place than this time last week.

Time to get back to business and as you say, focus on the right things. I've followed you & your journal since you started and it's fantastic to see your progress over the last year or two. Man, I'm proud of you

Steve [/quote]

hey Steve , glad to hear your sons on the mend

Thanks Nav

You're right of course, new week and time to look forward - thanks

Steve

Steve,

I am glad your son is doing ok and you got him back home safely. I can't imagine how you felt at the time. Nothing but well wishes for you and your family in the future. Good luck on your new system. I am doing some daily and weekly trading myself and just letting it go. Doing good so far this year, but this is on a small account. Too bad I can't manage to trade bigger, but just as sure as I start, it will all fall apart

llambert3

Steve,


I am a retired business consultant and was formerly a journalist. I belong to 1990
generation of web surfers, who viewed the medium as a god-send opportunity to
pass to next generation the knowledge that we had acquired from real life. I
guess such people believe they are givers and God has always been with them to take care of their needs and rewards. They don't feel insecure, are not greedy and have different mind-set.


I have been involved in currency options trading since last 15 years and being a
compulsive Internet surfer landed at FXCM site somewhere in 2001 and at the
same time got introduced to News Trading by chance. Online currency trading
had just started taking off. News trading style of doing straddles attracted me
because in options I had done straddle several times.


NFP, FOMC and Greenspan's talks/testimonies always provided safe returns to
news traders. FXCM suddenly woke up when it saw losing money in case of a
few traders. And then the era of slowing down screens and throwing 50 pip balls
started, ending my interest in spot forex in 2003.


I did spot forex trading sporadically more out of curiosity than with any particular
plan. However, it sparked my interest in charts, candles, patterns and TA in general. I bought a few
books. Since I was busy running my businesses I could not afford to give time
to learn TA.


After my retirement, for last two years and more I have been spending a lot of time studying TA, MT4 indicators as well as doing real-life spot fx trading to gain experience. My main reason initially was to sharpen my predictive skills for currency options as well to introduce it to my grandson who is fond of games and keeps demanding money to buy things most of the time. So I thought of making a deal with him – I will give him whatever money he makes from demo trading during one hour London time when he is free.


That way he will understand the importance of brain power and gain some finance management skills.
I feel the times have changed and school children must be made to understand
the importance of managing finances. Needs (consumerism) are growing
everyday while the means to meet them (income) are not in same proportion.


I did find two indicators - (semafor fractals) and stochastics - for my grandson to
use. And now I am looking for some more and then will make a strategy to teach him how to operate MT4 and use a few indicators.


After spending a lot of time watching charts I realised fx market is very much like
any other speculative market but manipulation is rampant and relatively easy to do because of its OTC nature. It's a one-sided game. Market makers know speculators' trading patterns,
positions both spot as well options, their origins, and on top of it they control the
liquidity. They have more advantages than even casino operators.


I must admit my early exposure to News trading was something which led me to this early
conclusion. I realised no matter what happens fundamentally, the market moves
where it wants to go. And then I focussed on finding reasons for spikes and
realised I am up against superior tech brains and super computers. And I should
find some regular patterns to what they are doing and I should be riding on their
bandwagon.


Trained as a journalist (having inquiring mind) who later became a businessman
(understands how to cut costs, bear regular losses and yet make profit) I have
been trying to put pieces together and tie it up with my 15 experience of real-life
trading of currency options.


In the meantime early this year, a lot of my friends and their wives - most of them non-working -
who were making some regular income by keeping fixed deposits linked to carry trades saw their
income source dried up totally.


They asked me to teach them forex trading. I refused to teach them because I know it
requires a lot of dedication and guts. Somehow, I felt I should do something for
the non-working women. Now the deposit rates are almost nil.


A lot of people known to me - mostly individual business people - all are facing
tough times. They all want to know whether fx trading can be done as a regular
business.


Now I list three objectives and my own resources:


1. Empower the school generation with financial skills (12-year old and more)


I understand fractals, support and resistance, pip calculation, leverage, margins
and drawdown will do the job. JOB ALMOST COMPLETED. If anyone has something to add to it, please do so.


2. Find some source of regular income (with no risk) for people who were
depending on bank interest as extra source of income and are used to take drawdown in their stride.
Attached is a chart explaining the reasons why such a conservative strategy can be adopted.


I have my '80s gold trading and '90s currency options trading experience to make
me comfortable with drawdown between 18 months to 24 months. Having been
through major economic events of 1980, 1997, 1998, 2001, I was well prepared for 2008 (which resulted in windfall for me). I am well prepared for 2018 (if I remain alive).


For this strategy, I need to learn hedging technique. Hong Kong traders employ hedging to control margin calls and use instinct (that's what they say when I ask them to explain the strategy) to enter, exit and re-enter . I have searched the whole forum for someone (for almost six months now) who can impart this knowledge from his/her own experience but until Saturday I found none.


On Sunday I found your journal and finished reading your whole thread non-stop 12 hours. I think YOU CAN IMPART this knowledge from your own experience.


3. Make a structure for fx currency as a regular speculative business venture (intended for experienced entrepreneurs because they understand the concepts of profit, loss, bad debts, gut feeling and risk taking ) with all systems in place for :


(a) controlling costs - negotiate with online bank fx brokers - none other than German banks who offer unlimited deposit protection- for lower spreads and rolling costs


(b) controlling risks (hedging, drawdown, money management, planning lots etc), and understanding portfolio management and hedge funds systems.


(c) keeping accounts


(d) imparting chart-reading knowledge and use of two trading platforms - MT4 (so that useful statistical indicators can be used) as well as Fx brokers platform (in case of banks it will not be MT4) -


(e) training mind - not to fear from whoever is talking of randomness of the market, not to pay too much attention to market noise (fundamentals) and not to use TA for trading signals. Use own mind to take the trading decisions.


It is very clear market makers have set up such an expensive currency exchange network without getting any subsidy from any government (after the gold-reserves linked currency regime gave way to paper currency during '70s) not for charity. It is purely for making money for themselves. They have a mandate to maintain the currency markets stable. Otherwise, any time, IMF can be used to regulate currency exchange. So volatility will have its own limits. Multi-year trend reversals will keep happening because of uncontrolled speculation and explosive use of derivatives like options and structured products (driven by greed of both market makers and speculators). I have empathy for them.


(f) understanding business tactics of competitors (insider traders, market makers, hedge funds, investment banks and our own forex broker) and take their recommendations with a lot of skepticism and profit from that knowledge.


For Project 3, I am going to set up a thread and explore (d), (e) and (f) parts.


We will try to explore Swing trading and George Angell's sniper trading workbook on (or Taylor's) 3-day LSS cycle for our (f) part.


I am looking for thread contributors who have mindset like you and are willing to dedicate themselves to master this business as an enterprise or profession (managing other peoples money).


Swingman, a first-class programmer on this forum (also from my generation of web surfers whom I
know a week ago) has encouraged me to set up the thread and is willing to develop indicators for it. That's so nice of him to offer. Both of us will try our best to pass our real-life experience , wisdom and knowledge to people who want to put in a lot of time and effort in mastering a somewhat tough business.


Your blog was quite absorbing and you have been able to connect with a host of people (including me) by being honest. To me you come across as a gentleman of first order, a good worker, a good colleague, a man who cares about friends and family, keeps his nerves, and can face tough times. Best part is that you have gone to lengths not to hurt or upset anyone. Humble people are always loved. It is not easy to let other people know that he/she is superior than you.


I have gone through a lot of ups and downs in my entrepreneurial life. But the attitude of a daily newspaper has remained with me. A senior colleague of ours used to make this remark: “Day's damage has bee done” when ever the daily newspaper was put to bed (up for printing). I carry this attitude to this day and it has served me well.


Thomas Eddison's quote is also dear to me: Genius is one per cent inspiration, ninety-nine per cent perspiration.



YOUR STRATEGIES


You have to use your old strategies (they are classical and they will always remain valid except during the times of multi-year trend reversals). Why am I telling you this? Because you understand the power of drawdown and money management. I think you also understand the power of hedging but somehow have not been able to make up your mind on its usefulness. Yes, you just need to refine, particularly the entry and exit parts and combine with hedging to control loss. Stoploss is never to be employed. If trend reversal happens fine, wait for retracement and in the meantime keep in the cold storage without incurring storage charges.


I am at the moment using hedging in my spot trading - all in a haphazard manner. My main intention of live trading at the moment is to train my psychology, spend chart hours and try to figure out the intentions of the market makers . How do they accumulate positions, when do they sell, when do they build up shorts, what tactics do they employ to create fear and ecstasy.


Money management, combined with hedging and drawdown comfort, has taken care of the fear factor – but not the greed (waiting for more profits to accrue). Yes over-trading remains the major problem.


FINDINGS FROM NOVEMBER 2008 AND ONWARDS


The market makes have seven switches (seven major currencies) to run the 24-hour live circus at the world's largest casino. So I pay attention on how they employ GBP, USD and JPY mainly to regulate the currency movements. The whole show has all the elements of drama .


I don't pay much attention to my positions. The focus is to find a regular pattern and then do active trading later. But this focus has helped me get better returns from currency options. So my time is not wasted as well.


For spot I enter a position instinctively, and if I make money 50 pips fine. If I enter at the time of bull trap or bear trap I lock up loss at 50 pips by hedging in same currency. Single margin is good for two positions. Then wait for one position to make profit 100 pips and then release it. If it goes further into red again re-hedge and put in cold storage. On the day of major data release likes BOE, FOMC, NFP I select the hedged positions which are in red. One which can profit from upwards spike and another which can profit from downward spike. Most of the times both positions are extinguished. News trading is the only system I know from my real-life experience. So I use it like this.


By regularly doing this I have learned to keep my hedged positions in the cold storage without affecting my regular trading. Because of my focus elsewhere, I have not paid attention to developing any system for the hedges management - entry, exit, re-entry, exit, lots combination and that's why I am not able to generate much profit. Still I am satisfied because it is giving 3-4% returns in 2 months. However, the income from currency options has increased.


Since 1980 I have seen Asian traders keep employing hedging techniques so there is some good value in it. If we can work together on developing reliable and classical strategies for hedging, and use them efficiently, we will be able to easily make 30% returns every year on a conservative basis and give a better alternative to currency options, which will attract a good following from my friends, relatives and contacts. I will pass them to you without any expectation. I have no commercial agenda of my own.


Cheers
PJ

Well, was a good one today with Frankfurt pushing up price for sellers.

Got in at 1.41498 and just closed at 1.40845. Nearly 3% on that one - bit of profit taking last few minutes of London nearly cost me an extra 1%.

Am also in a daily short from 1.41647 which is more long term. Stop loss will be moved to just above today's high. May get a runner, may not as EU is at a critical juncture here.

Steve

Went short London open at 1.41276 & looks like a spike got me at my stop 1.41526 grrrrr.

Daily short still on from 1.4164, s/l currently at 1.4202.

Steve

Well the daily short was stopped out for a couple of green pips.

Went long at London open this morning at 1.41037 with usual 25 pip stop (1% risk). It survived and today was a beauty. Currently price at near 1.4250 (up 6%) and have locked in 100 pips so far for 4%.

It's been a great week so far with nearly 3% banked Monday and the loss of 1% yesterday.

Just shows that persistency pays off despite things seeming bleak at times - just follow the plan (as long as it's viable).

Will update later when position is closed.....

(A happy) Steve

Happy traders. There's enough doom and gloom in this world as it is.

Closed long from 1.41037 at 1.42225 for 118.8 pips (+4.752%)

Very tight range all day, was long from 1.42164. Luckily broke my way and closed at 1.42576 for 41.2 pips (+1.65%)

Also am holding a long from the daily taken last night at 1.42350. Will move s/l tonight to just below todays low at 1.41977.

Been a cracking week

Steve