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4H Box Breakout

  • #2,141
  • Aug 20, 2009 8:57am Aug 20, 2009 8:57am
i am going back ward again. may be made some mistakes. i will check those dates after I am done.
it is total 33 weeks to check.
I was asking about what to do when box is 200 pips and more. It looks like it actually doe snot matter. I see even with such huge boxes it hits TP3,
Probably it has to do with overall volatility.
  • #2,142
  • Aug 20, 2009 9:21am Aug 20, 2009 9:21am
Quoting yen44x
Don't get upset Shiko . . . you're the one that made the statement that in 2009 if the first trade was a loser, then the second trade was ALWAYS a loser. I gave you 3 examples to the contrary just in the last 3 months and simply asked for some documentation to prove your point. If it can't be proved, it's a theory.

Here's a fourth example, and I'm not going to provide any more because I think the point is made: The week of April 27. The short trade went to TP2 before retracing (a loser by Ace's definition at the time) and the Long trade then went...

Man, April 27, no loss. it is B/E according to Ace TP1 and according to 50 pips and B/E. i tis also B/E on my list first trade.
  • #2,143
  • Aug 20, 2009 9:27am Aug 20, 2009 9:27am
Quoting aajduk
As an example on the attached chart of ej from 29th july until recently, if the 30ema is flat it can go either way which may put you in then stop you out. why bother. look for the situation where the purple circle may exist. trade with trend on the 4h box breakout.
Hi aajduk.

Your variation look interesting, have you done much back testing on your approach? ACE's method perform very well when the market is trending but poorly when the market is ranging and consolidating, ie from my own backtesting perform well from mid 2008 to now and poorly during 2005 and 2002. I've been looking of ways to adopt ACE's method on a daily basis using 1hr TF for those poorly performing years such as 2005 and 2002. Your approach would be interesting to see if it will reduce the SL for those years.

  • #2,144
  • Aug 20, 2009 9:28am Aug 20, 2009 9:28am
Quoting shiko
Man, April 27, no loss. it is B/E according to Ace TP1 and according to 50 pips and B/E. i tis also B/E on my list first trade.
You mentioned in post 2130 that you were following the original rules. At the time, Ace was not moving to BE when TP1 was hit, so that week was a loss per original rules.

This is turning into a conversation between just you and me, and I'm sure it's getting boring for everyone. So, I'll check out but I would appreciate seeing your research when you finish.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,145
  • Aug 20, 2009 9:38am Aug 20, 2009 9:38am
Quoting yen44x
You mentioned in post 2130 that you were following the original rules. At the time, Ace was not moving to BE when TP1 was hit, so that week was a loss per original rules.

This is turning into a conversation between just you and me, and I'm sure it's getting boring for everyone. So, I'll check out but I would appreciate seeing your research when you finish.
Ace has updated in the first post on moving stop to BE after 1x.

I'm wondering if anyone has backtested trading this daily. Based on my rudimentary eyeballing, the daily method would not be as profitable, the best moves tend to start on Mondays.

Quote
I like to use 3x-4x box size as TP.
I take don't profits at 1x size of box because larger reward is key.

I move stop to BE after 1x has been hit.
  • #2,146
  • Aug 20, 2009 9:43am Aug 20, 2009 9:43am
Quoting sojournerr
Ace has updated in the first post on moving stop to BE after 1x.
That's true, but what really has me curious is . . . What's the "little red dot" all about?
Attached Image
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,147
  • Aug 20, 2009 9:47am Aug 20, 2009 9:47am
Ok, probably we use different crriteria, but I am backing what I am saying. After first loss second follows. Ma1, May 22 and one more trade before., need to check. according to what i see, no first lose and then win. It is first B/E than win. it is ok.
  • #2,148
  • Aug 20, 2009 9:49am Aug 20, 2009 9:49am
Quoting yen44x
You mentioned in post 2130 that you were following the original rules. At the time, Ace was not moving to BE when TP1 was hit, so that week was a loss per original rules.

This is turning into a conversation between just you and me, and I'm sure it's getting boring for everyone. So, I'll check out but I would appreciate seeing your research when you finish.
It looked like he did... or may be he changed the rules later?
I remember reading move to B/E after TP1 hit.
  • #2,149
  • Aug 20, 2009 10:01am Aug 20, 2009 10:01am
Quoting shiko
It looked like he did... or may be he changed the rules later?
I remember reading move to B/E after TP1 hit.
Moving to BE after TP1 was not part of Ace's original rules. I believe he adopted it in late July or early August. Here's a post from early August when he mentions it:
Quoting Ace284
The week is underway. The candle is formed and as always im posting my chart for GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY.

Setting BE orders at some point in the trade would be a good idea. I'm looking at 1x, then placing it at BE.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,150
  • Aug 20, 2009 10:21am Aug 20, 2009 10:21am
I see. some misunderstanding.
  • #2,151
  • Aug 20, 2009 10:57am Aug 20, 2009 10:57am
Quoting aajduk
I have not commented on the forum for a while, but have been reading and trading. I was trading this system each day, in other words, a new 4h box each day but only trading in the direction of the trend as determined by a 30 period ema. (slope down, trade down and visa versa)
I think aces original system is sound and very profitable, but may not suit everyones trading tolerance, hence the variations.
What I have discovered over the last 4 weeks is that the first two days of the week for me seem the most profitable. I also look at the gu and...
hie there Anthony,yes i do trade daily 4hr breakout too.. But i fear most is i do not know whether the trend is strong or weak or will it keep going with the flow of the trend.. will try to put 30ema.. thanx..
  • #2,152
  • Aug 20, 2009 11:38am Aug 20, 2009 11:38am
This is what indecision looks like.

End result: A tough week to trade. Here's looking forward to a new week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Indecision.jpg Size: 19 KB
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,153
  • Aug 20, 2009 12:12pm Aug 20, 2009 12:12pm
I got stopped out at break even fairly early on. Not a bad trade I suppose. A bit frustrating, though. Itching to put it right but will have to wait until next week. How many others experienced this?
Gone to a better place
  • #2,154
  • Aug 20, 2009 12:29pm Aug 20, 2009 12:29pm
Quoting smikester
I got stopped out at break even fairly early on. Not a bad trade I suppose. A bit frustrating, though. Itching to put it right but will have to wait until next week. How many others experienced this?
I have been stopped out at BE this week too. I usually place two lots in GJ and EJ. First lot TP is @ 1x. Second Lot at 2x (EJ) and 3X(GJ). On second lot move stop at BE when 1x hit and put a trailing to the value of 1x.

This week results were -

Short:

GJ 1st lot closed at TP1, second lot BE
EJ: 1st lot closed @ TP1, second lot BE

Long

All 4 lots stopped out

(Total for the week: -178pips)

I also have strated AUDJPY last week with one lot - short was triggered and stopped out @ BE. Long hasn't been triggered, I have removed it as I do not see any price action sustaining a consitent upmove.


I have started trading this the last 4 weeks in live account and am profitable (+600 pips).

I think it is important to move stop @BE when 1x is hit, however I do not condone re-entry or daily breakouts, especially in this volatile market.

Based on past performance reviews i too think that this method is profitable - however one should always keep in mind to stick to the trading plan nad not overtrade this.

Just my 2 cents
  • #2,155
  • Aug 20, 2009 12:37pm Aug 20, 2009 12:37pm
Quoting danno96
Hi aajduk.

Your variation look interesting, have you done much back testing on your approach? ACE's method perform very well when the market is trending but poorly when the market is ranging and consolidating, ie from my own backtesting perform well from mid 2008 to now and poorly during 2005 and 2002. I've been looking of ways to adopt ACE's method on a daily basis using 1hr TF for those poorly performing years such as 2005 and 2002. Your approach would be interesting to see if it will reduce the SL for those years.

What rules are u following in your 1hr box breakout testing?
  • #2,156
  • Aug 20, 2009 12:44pm Aug 20, 2009 12:44pm
Thank you guys.
I am a bid of puzzled if we are in trade/open trade and if the TP is not reached by end of the week,do we still keep it open or close it?Cause after looking backwards some results there are trades that will only hit TP the next following week or maybe it will not at all n even turn opposite way.Any clues to it?
As I have to work, the time to enter pending order on ACE technique suits me,however I have to do a "set and forget" method on this thus cannot do any BE,so a bit disadvantages. I know Trail stop is not advisable according to some members. Those who are successfull in this any suggestions to a newbies ?
Thanks
  • #2,157
  • Aug 20, 2009 12:48pm Aug 20, 2009 12:48pm
Quoting GreatYves
One Long and one short in a week and that's it. There is no point to try to catch the devil by the tail within such a range market. This method is done for the week since tuesday, wait till Sunday.That's it.

Thank goodness someone has sense and paitents
Getting out the Rat Race
  • #2,158
  • Aug 20, 2009 1:59pm Aug 20, 2009 1:59pm
Quoting debdaz
Thank goodness someone has sense and paitents

That's true I am getting ready for Sunday!
  • #2,159
  • Aug 20, 2009 2:24pm Aug 20, 2009 2:24pm
Quoting geribosi
I think it is important to move stop @BE when 1x is hit, however I do not condone re-entry or daily breakouts, especially in this volatile market.


Just my 2 cents
Thanks for the reply. Yes I missed TP1 before it reversed.
Gone to a better place
  • #2,160
  • Aug 20, 2009 5:14pm Aug 20, 2009 5:14pm
Quoting yen44x
Don't get upset Shiko . . . you're the one that made the statement that in 2009 if the first trade was a loser, then the second trade was ALWAYS a loser. I gave you 3 examples to the contrary just in the last 3 months and simply asked for some documentation to prove your point. If it can't be proved, it's a theory.

Here's a fourth example, and I'm not going to provide any more because I think the point is made: The week of April 27. The short trade went to TP2 before retracing (a loser by Ace's definition at the time) and the Long trade then went...
Karl Popper argued that a theory can only be considered scientifically valid if it is falsifiable. This was based on his contension that there is a logical asymmetry between scientific verification and falsifiability.
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