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4H Box Breakout

  • #2,101
  • Edited 11:17pm Aug 19, 2009 10:18pm | Edited 11:17pm
Quoting wrenski
VERY, VERY impressive! Good work RR and Dave!
No No, not me. I am only pyramiding on RR’s and Ace's talents. Without them, we are only floundering with our individual theories. We absolutely need their expertise to form a concept and hopefully an EA that can test our poking and prodding of an excellent idea presented by Ace. I wish I had both their talents.

My only talent is pushing peoples concept of the observance of rules, acceptance of convention, trusting the past and hoping for the best. The ability of independant thinking is lost to so many people that rules become their god.

Sorry. Got the sermon bug, but we are moving in a good direction. Let me say it again, I love this system. I will, however, continue to work on perfecting it, despite the opposition.


Dave R.
  • #2,102
  • Aug 19, 2009 10:51pm Aug 19, 2009 10:51pm
Quoting droland
My only talent is pushing peoples concept of the observance of rules, acceptance of convention, trusting the past and hoping for the best. The ability of independant thinking is lost to so many people that rules become their god.

Sorry. Got the sermon bug, but we are moving in a good direction. Let me say it again, I love this system. I will still work on perfecting it however.
Hey, the sermon bug's o.k. . . . let me be the first in the choir to say "Amen, brother".

I have absolutely no problem with suggested changes to an already great system if it's backed up by some forethought and, even better, some research and testing. Your suggestions always meet that criteria, and I appreciate your well-thought-out posts.

I think I've made less changes to the system than you, but with the same goal . . . preserve profits. As you've stated, why sit on your hands and watch hundreds of pips in profits disappear if there's an alternative.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,103
  • Aug 19, 2009 11:55pm Aug 19, 2009 11:55pm
I was wondering if anyone has a + Pip count for the past two or three week for this system?
  • #2,104
  • Aug 20, 2009 12:32am Aug 20, 2009 12:32am
Quoting droland
Further to my last post, I am attaching here the results of the 5% risk backtest.

Just a comment on risk/reward....
Very nice. I think though we need to test the system on data from a cruddy year like 2006. I have no idea how to do that but I know from my own paper backtesting it was not a good year for this system. Thanks for all the hard work.
  • #2,105
  • Aug 20, 2009 12:34am Aug 20, 2009 12:34am
Quoting Eric.Suhr
I was wondering if anyone has a + Pip count for the past two or three week for this system?
guess that would depend on how you traded it. Really would it be that hard to go back a couple of weeks and look at it yourself? Good grief, scroll back in your charts and look at it. Your only talking about 2-3 trades.
  • #2,106
  • Aug 20, 2009 12:41am Aug 20, 2009 12:41am
Quoting Eric.Suhr
I was wondering if anyone has a + Pip count for the past two or three week for this system?
To give you some idea, here are my results so far in August based on trading the 4H Box System as follows:
I open two positions each for EUR/JPY and GPB/JPY.
My targets are as follows:
EUR/JPY: 1 position at TP1, 1 at TP3
GBP/JPY; 1 position at TP1, 1 at TP4
If price reaches TP1, I move the SL on the remaining position to BE +20 (per Danno’s suggestion), and then incorporate somewhat of a trailing stop by moving the SL to TP1 if price hits TP2, to TP2 if price hits TP3, and so forth.
Since I’m still experimenting with that setup, the results I’m showing are from a demo account, with a risk of approximately 2-3% on each trade. The pip total is the cumulative total of all trades, but the summary is also broken down to reflect account growth percentage and average pips made per trade. Hope that helps.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: August 1-19.jpg Size: 44 KB
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,107
  • Aug 20, 2009 2:13am Aug 20, 2009 2:13am
Quoting faxfxfx
If your target is TP1, then you need to have more wins than losses to make this system work. TP2 is good, TP3 is better, but as many people have backtested the targets, it appears that TP4 is most better (grammar!)
One very basic question
As I read about rules of this system I understood that when you use 4 take profit levels you have to open 0.4 lot at least and with every TP level hit you close 1/4 of your trade. That means also when price is breaking BE, not reaching TP1 and then is going down you have 4 x SL.
So in every trade you risk the same amount you can win : 4 x box size
So the risk / reward ratio is the same.
And that system only takes advantage of the fact that when BE is broken there is higher probability that the price will go up/down
Is my thinking correct?
  • #2,108
  • Aug 20, 2009 3:19am Aug 20, 2009 3:19am
I think this system is less profitable when the market goes ranging....
I only took 20 Pips this week because I wrongly set the TP value.. but it is better than nothing...

If the pairs is still moving side way until market close on this Friday, next week may be a tuff week to us as well...
  • #2,109
  • Aug 20, 2009 4:01am Aug 20, 2009 4:01am
first time trading this ACE method. Probably enter at a wrong timing.Made couple of losses.Can some one verify

july 17-24 /09 -SL on both end. BS -130 n SS -130 = -260
july 24-Aug 3 /09 -SL on both end.BS -125 n SS -125 = -250
Aug 3-7 /09 - BE cause it price went 2.5x n drop back. = 0
Aug 8-14 -3x profit +387 = +387
Aug 8 till now -SL on both end. BS -120 n SS -120 = -240

Total till now = -363

Would like to know am I alone on this negative area or jcan some one or expert verify or is it just a setback.Using FXDD.What a day to choose to go in.LOL
  • #2,110
  • Aug 20, 2009 5:19am Aug 20, 2009 5:19am
Quoting yen44x
Ace has consistently posted a Long and a Short box for the week, never 2 longs or two shorts. I don't think he's ever suggested re-entering a losing trade. Others have suggested variations and they may or may not be successful with the changes, but it's not part of the original system.


You know, I have checked data week by week since January 1, 2009. There was not a single week when if you lost first trade you then won second trade.
It looks to me this system is a one shot pony. If the first trade lost, no trading till next week. It was really unexpected result. It means that probability of win after loss is so small , at least for these 8 months it is 0, that it doe snot worst to open second trade after first loss. which means, once long/ short triggered another limit order canceled. Results would be far better. I have been checking 100% according to original rules.
  • #2,111
  • Aug 20, 2009 5:23am Aug 20, 2009 5:23am
Quoting wtcmc
first time trading this ACE method. Probably enter at a wrong timing.Made couple of losses.Can some one verify

july 17-24 /09 -SL on both end. BS -130 n SS -130...

Exactly, read what I wrote above. There is no a single week when you lost first trade and then won second. Probability is not there. This rule of taking trades on both sides must be dropped. it is not working. save yourself some pips. Unless move stop loss to B/E rule is changed. I will be checking same data today but with different original move stop loss to B/E rule and see what will happen.
  • #2,112
  • Aug 20, 2009 5:24am Aug 20, 2009 5:24am
Quoting yen44x
To give you some idea, here are my results so far in August based on trading the 4H Box System as follows:...


I am quite sure all your wins were the first trades... no second chances here.
  • #2,113
  • Aug 20, 2009 5:30am Aug 20, 2009 5:30am
Quoting shiko
You know, I have checked data week by week since January 1, 2009. There was not a single week when if you lost first trade you then won second trade.
It looks to me this system is a one shot pony. If the first trade lost, no trading till next week. It was really unexpected result. It means that probability of win after loss is so small , at least for these 8 months it is 0, that it doe snot worst to open second trade after first loss. which means, once long/ short triggered another limit order canceled. Results would be far better. I have been...
Thanks for that. I have been thinking of checking the same. I will take your words for it.

cheers
Garfield
Trading is SIMPLE not EASY.
  • #2,114
  • Aug 20, 2009 5:38am Aug 20, 2009 5:38am
I spent last weekend reading the WHOLE thread. It was like one of those books you can't put down.

Thank you Ace for starting this thread and introducing this great method. Thanks to all the other contributors here as well. What a cool bunch of people!
  • #2,115
  • Aug 20, 2009 6:24am Aug 20, 2009 6:24am
Quoting yen44x
To give you some idea, here are my results so far in August based on trading the 4H Box System as follows:...

Yen, are you taking partial profits at each TP level or you just move stop loss to B/E and then follow with TP1,2,3?
What about original B?E stop loss? are you waiting till TP1 reached or move it earlier?
I will be checking today with SL moving to B/E from 50 pips to half of the box length.
  • #2,116
  • Aug 20, 2009 6:27am Aug 20, 2009 6:27am
Quoting garfield75
Thanks for that. I have been thinking of checking the same. I will take your words for it.

cheers
Garfield
Yeah, it looks like it does not make any sense to make 2 trades per week. It is one shot affair. returns are much better. Although, i tis with 100% Ace rules. i am going to check today with moving Stop loss to BE earlier than TP1. This pair is very volatile, if the price really takes off even 50-80 pips in profit and then B/E is enoughh. If it is ranging, it will protect from certain loss and get some pips.
  • #2,117
  • Aug 20, 2009 6:27am Aug 20, 2009 6:27am
I am not talking about partial profits taking but about moving stop loss to B/E before TP1.
  • #2,118
  • Aug 20, 2009 6:37am Aug 20, 2009 6:37am
Quoting shiko
You know, I have checked data week by week since January 1, 2009. There was not a single week when if you lost first trade you then won second trade.
It looks to me this system is a one shot pony. If the first trade lost, no trading till next week. It was really unexpected result. It means that probability of win after loss is so small , at least for these 8 months it is 0, that it doe snot worst to open second trade after first loss. which means, once long/ short triggered another limit order canceled. Results would be far better. I have been...
You must be referring to GBP/JPY only, because EUR/JPY was a winner after the first trade was lost during the week of August 3.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,119
  • Edited 8:57am Aug 20, 2009 6:40am | Edited 8:57am
Quoting shiko
Yen, are you taking partial profits at each TP level or you just move stop loss to B/E and then follow with TP1,2,3?
What about original B?E stop loss? are you waiting till TP1 reached or move it earlier?
I will be checking today with SL moving to B/E from 50 pips to half of the box length.
I posted exactly what I'm doing in post #2106: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2106

If it's not clear, let me know.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,120
  • Aug 20, 2009 6:47am Aug 20, 2009 6:47am
Quoting yen44x
You must be referring to GBP/JPY only, because EUR/JPY was a winner after the first trade was lost during the week of August 3.


Yes, I meant G/J, I have not tested E/J yet.
But with only 1 trade won this way, it still does not worth it if it has no higher probability.
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