Elliott Wave Trading

PK... what do you mean by ...

Was not this last Year??? ABCDE.??

My EUr/USD H1 chart.

The 4th/5th wave in eu getting too wired,can't getting the convincing #. It (5th)seems progressing through expanding triangle or still in 4th correction ( fit somehow) confusing..wherase there is huge diamond at the top in h4 indicating good consolidation /breakout again if stay valid .
fontu

Eur/Aud chart.. M15

hi fontu,

Pls see my Eur/Usd daily chart..

Here 5th wave is count as ending diagonal and looks fine to me. Wht do you think?

I copy it from other forum, not mine.

In a near-term bearish scenario, EURUSD 1-hour chart might move down in a 5-wave pattern.

hi all,

my eur/aud chart..

Appropriate time for the start of the fall of the dollar
The current wave pattern allows for the beginning of a new spiral of weakening U.S. dollar in the near future.


Of course, this assumption does not mean 100% guarantee this fall, but if the price will not break the designated critical levels, the fall of bucks could be a long-term.

My viewpoint is on the opposite side of the trade from yours. I fully expect to see a strong (and prolonged) USD rally to the upside.

Over the next while, I expect to see the USD outperform ALL other currencies...VERY bullish the USD.

The daily G/U, is this also your count?

Ridingwaves2,

Yes, that is essentially what I have also; however, after wave 5 at the top I'm not counting A, B, C, but rather i, ii, iii, etc. and I'm looking for the GBP/USD to drop below 1.3500 over the next 1-2 years (position trade).

At present, the wave pattern persists suggests possible long-term trend against the U.S. dollar.

Baks, however, could still reverse the situation to their advantage, if the current corrective structure transforms in momentum. This turn of events could lead to a change of scenario. It remains to wait for any of the scenarios will choose the price.

200ema, wow, you are really a big bear of GBP/USD. Is it because you see a long-term chart pattern or because you have some fundamental reason for the down trend?

Wave one down on the 4H chart is now complete and wave two is in progress.

Fundamentals, EW, personally programmed indicators, Daily Sentiment Index, Inter-market analysis, USD Index, and other knowledge are telling me the USD is going to outperform all other currencies starting now (if I've been on the ball...and I haven't been on the wrong side of this trade yet.)

EW: A BIG ABC pattern on the daily chart that I know is very easy to see, as well as my 4H chart count are telling me that the top is in.

Indicators: Weekly chart is overbought, and the ABC pattern is even easier to see.

Fundamentals: This could turn into a very very long post/discussion on what is going on and what the implications of it all mean (to me, that is...and I could be wrong), but I see enough there to put my money where my mouth is.

Other info.: The last time the market was setup the way it is now, was when the DJIA was topping out at the 14,000+ level and then dropped over 7000 point...BUT, things are stacked even HIGHER this time, and I fully expect to see the DJIA below 3000 before the drop that is now just starting is over.

As a point of interest to FX traders, when the stock market dropped 50%+ over the course of appro. 17 months what happened to the USD??? Take a look, and I think you'll find that the USD gained a great deal of ground and NOT because the US economy was recovering, but rather because people moved their money into USD for safety (out of fear)....That said, what do you think is going to happen this time, if I'm correct?

To add to the pile, I have a friend who has some friends... (how's that one for obtuse) ...that manage an FX account valued in the high double digit Billions of dollars...and they are long the USD to the tune of Billions...So they either see/know something similar to what I see/think I know...OR we are wrong.

So, that is where I stand on things; and yes, the market may prove me wrong. Only time will tell that story in full. But for now, I'll be selling every bull rally the GBP/USD puts in front of me (and that goes for any other currency paired against the greenback).

--- That said, trade what you see and understand. DON'T just jump in because I or anyone else says something. Risk/money/trade management are often MORE important than any other part of trading. Bad trades, managed well, can still be profitable or break-even trades. ---

I hope I'm correct in all of this, just as I hope this post has been of assistance to everyone more than it has been an agent of confusion.

Take care of you and yours.

Hi 200ema, thanks for your TA and FA on GBP/USD. It seems to be a nice one to me. I have bookmarked it for my reference

Good trading

Speaking of DJIA, its current up swing in weekly chart is either in wave-3 or in wave-c. The former means the market still have good room for the upside in the following weeks or months, the latter means another down trend correction is near. Chart wise, DJIA 3000 is not impossible. But it takes a lot of courage to do this prediction, IMO, since the economic data in the recent months seem pointing to a recovery, and the financial stocks and other stocks are doing ok or well lately. Will things change for the worse in the near future? I will not be totally surprised either. I’ll wait and see.

Hi 200ema,

Would you care to share your count from the 2.11 top. I have the current ABC correction as a Wave 4. The 50% retrace and Guideline of Alternation fit well with the structure of Wave 2. Either way, we should be going down from here.

Thanks.

Hi all,

Here is my Daily chart with my count on it (I've removed a number of the smaller degree counts to make it a little easier to see, and follow).

Fire away, and let me know what your thoughts are. My large blue (1) and (2) could also be (A) and (B), but either way if my count holds true the GBP/USD and other currencies pairs that are paired ???/USD are likely to be in for a bearish move.

Cheers all.

Hi Everyone! I hope everyone has been able to gain some good pips from my last post. This pull down i suspect is a correction wave 2. It should not go beyond wave 1. I believe the cable is heading for a impulse wave 3 and it will continue to extend until it goes beyond 1.7050 over a period of 2-4 weeks.

Happy Pippin!

My big count seems to be different from yours (I have ending diagonal, check my earlier posts if interested), but target for the diagonal (and wave4) is pretty much the same, round 1.705. My going short depends also on euro, where the top is perhaps a bit easier to define than for cable.

... and then the last wave to the south, well below 1.35...

R