4H Box Breakout

Hi:
Using the indicator that Ace posted, my TP2 was at 153.56, price on FXDD went as low as 153.43. Thanks for your input, it can be confusing, just wondering aloud, the old battle between putting pips in the bank and hanging on for the really big pip runs that take place over weeks and sometimes months.

Jim

Big Jim,

The beauty of this system is in the ebb and flow, check Post #490 on page 33, also check Post #1188 on page 80.

It only gets better,
Jon

Hi Jon:
Thnnks for the reminder, I have read all the posts since the beginning of the thread but I guess they sort of blended together after time, thanks again for the great heads up.

Jim

I just wanted to emphasize a point that has been mentioned in every thread I have read and Ace and a few others have mentioned on a regular basis.

Listen, it is a proven fact that probably 95% of us just on this thread will sooner or late wipe our account in months to come or in a year or two. It is also a fact that only a handful of traders can do this consistently and as a career and the reap the benefits of being a trader which is financial reward as well as freedom to your time. Being a trader is a great career, many have been millionaires as a trader and have been doing it for more than 20 years. These traders did not just sit around and find a system that can give them certain profits for a time frame of 3 months or so. Many of us get excited when we find a system and put in a few trades and we are profitable and suddenly think we can quit our day jobs. Many are excited to find a person who tells them enter here and exit there and you will be a millionaire...........

They all tend not to talk about probabilities, emotional and psychology of trading. Before you even go live, ask yourself do I have a detailed business plan on how I am going to trade. For example if it was a business where you needed a loan from the bank and you presented that business plan to the banker, would be approve it...............or would he just throw it back at you..................Do you have a trading log, do you keep track of every single transaction and I am not talking about the records your broker keeps.........A business plan consists of many section of whom only a few pages can be dedicated to the system itself. Most of the business plan is about the psychology of trading which most never practice or read about.

The reason i brought this up is because of the ongoing discussion on when to take profits and so forth...............This is solely up to the individual but let me emphasize this as ACE has, that IF YOU DO NOT KNOW THE WORLD OF PROBABILITIES, IT MIGHT BE A GOOD IDEA TO INVEST YOUR MONEY IN OTHER VENTURES. This is the key in any system that you use..........you have to see the probabilities for a long period of time unless you just want to trade for a week and then never trade again. In this business you will and let me emphasize this YOU WILL LOSE. But as Ace has mentioned before and also Danno and the back testing that they have done is that with this system, your money is mostly made on the big winners as at times you might have more losers than winners............Now ACE and a few others have contributed on how to minimize that loss which came up with moving to BE after 1x TP. As my back testing as well, it seems like that definetly minimizes our losses.

So now when individuals like ACE or DANNO have published their back testing and taken time to do the dirty work, wouldn't it be wise to take that effort and build on it. Now for those that are taking or suggesting to take partial profits, there is nothing wrong with that practice. It is a very profitable practice in many systems but to see if that practice is feasible in this method, one must do some extensive back testing like Danno did and can post the results for us and see if in the long run what our probabilities are.............................

We are here, well at least I am here to learn from other people's lessons and efforts so I can dedicate my time in not making the same mistakes but to becomming a well rounded trader so I can do what I love without from anywhere in the world. By learning from the mistakes of others and reading why people fail and if you can really and i mean really apply that to your trading, your learning curve will be so much smaller and you probably won't go through many accounts as you would if you didn't learn from their mistakes.

Just my two cents just not about this method but trading and life in general..

Happy Pippin

I'm using FXDD also but my TP2 is at 152.56, hopefully i'm not doing something wrong. Many pips to all.

AB

Just to keep people up to date on my trades (good bad or ugly), trying to keep my risk to a minimum, I put in my Pending Short order at 154.70, to be below the Monthly Pivot. The market broke through the Monthly pivot and hit resistance at 153.90 so I closed, locking in 70 pips profit.

GJ is currently trading at 154.30. I have placed a new Pending Short at 153.70 in case in continues with the Short trend but if it continues back up, I will wait for the Long to be possibly hit.

If it does move up some more, I will move my Pending Order up to 154.95 as 155 is a very strong resistance.

Discussion or criticism of my approach is welcome. If I am wrong, we can all learn.

Remember what Henry Ford said, "Failure is just an opportunity to start over again, more intelligently".

Dave R.

I will read it again. But one general question please. Wich thread can tell me the us bokers that i can use to trade here in the US without having to trade with an overseas account? One that will allow staddles. I have kept a jounal in my Word Pad. Nothing about a US broker that allows staddles. I will post the findings after i have completed my findings. Maybe my question has been answered. Maybe not. I WILL READ FOR MYSELF. NO I AM NOT LAZY. SO PLEASE DONT CALL ME THAT. I HAVE READ THE THREAD OVER AND OVER. If any one can help thanks. Will check back on Tuesday with what i have found in the thread with the page # and post thanks.

Already closed the trade out with a 50 pip on a sell.

Good luck to eveyone

as always. well said

OK, I have made some detailed back testing of my own week by week starting the first trade of May 2009.
danno96's rules are great and I added only 1 rule.
Doe snot matter what box size was I never used less than 150 pips. If box is bigger than 150 pips so I use more pips then 150.
Ok.
Once I am 50 pips in profit, I close 50% of my position and move S/L to B/E.
Since that moment I follow Danno96 rules to the point.

Results are following:

out of 23 signals to go long or short, 20 gave me at least 50 pips to do what I mentioned in my rule 1.
3 trades were straight 100% losses of 150 pips.
I assumed risk of 1% per trade. account $50 000. Risk $510 or $3.4 per pip.
I had 1000 pips according to rule 1: close 50% of the position at 50 pips.
It is $1700.

3 losses of $450 pips X $3.4 = $1530

Already net $170.

Then, I follow Danno96 rules by moving S/L first 20 pips once it is first 150 pips, then TP2, TP3 and so forth. It is total 3640 pips X $1.7 = $6188
add to this $170 left and it is total of $6358 net income.

The most important capital is preserved and after 50 pips taken there is no risk. Once market picks up, we have good return.
It is results for 3 months and a half.
If we use 2% risk per trade it is beautiful 25-26% return.
Market gave us 50 pips to close half position and move S/L to B/E to protect ourselves 87% of all signals to open position.

good job on banking some pips. I just don't really see what your methodology has to do with this system. You traded the break of the monthly pivot not the four hour candle. You don't have a specific set of rules for entering and exiting, your using your discrection and trading with the trend based on indicators or what you see on your charts or buying and selling pullbacks. I do that as well with other systems but I personally prefer the set and forget aspect of this system. I will enter another short position if price breaks down below 153.40 based on a master candle consolidation (another system I trade), but its got nothing to do with Ace's system. Not trying to knock you or anything and I am open to different ideas, but it seems like you've changed the system and tweaked it to the point its more different than its the same if you know what I am saying. Not trying to rock the boat just my opinion I guess.

smurf...not sure why your so interested in US accounts. NFP passed a rule so move your accounts oversees. Not a big deal.

I check out my trade this morning and find that I only get 20 pips banked instead of more... I think I mistakenly key in the wrong amount of TP...

Any way, there are lot of change to trade waiting.. it is better than nothing, my long order still pending and I think the pairs will bounce up pretty soon because my custom indicator at 15 min chart, BB MACD is showing trend change.....

Good luck guys...

Just check out 1 hour chart while writing this post, EJ down trend is broken now....

Hi guys,

Yesterday I placed short order at 155.14 at my GFT platform and this morning when I checked, the figure changed to 154,23. I spoken to the live chat, he said it was because of the rollover. Anyone encounter that before?? Is this apply to all brokers?

Thanks

Looking at the price is already move long but should be less than short. i already buy now.....

No No your comments are absolutely fine. That is why I posted. If I can't support my position then they are crap.

Please answer one question for me before I answer in detail. If you had a 150 pip Sunday box and use Aces TP4 concept that would be a 600 pip profit target. If the market hit 550 pips and started a dramatic reversal, would you let the whole 550 pips be lost or would you close somewhere along that retracement to capture al least some of the 550 pip profit. In the original method you could also lose another 150 pips from the SL. Thats 700 pips lost. Sorry. I will never let that happen.

To let 550 pips profit just disappear by doing nothing is just plain illogical. No responsible trader would do this. Sorry. I feel very strongly on this point.

If the answer is yes, you would close somewhere in that 550 pip run then you are doing EXACTLY what I am doing. Where I decide to get out is up to me just like anyone else out there but I can gaurantee you one thing, I will NOT let the bulk of a 550 pips profit get away from me just becasue that is someones idea of how to trade.

My only other addition to Ace's method is that I do set another Pending Order in the same direction as the original entry, at my exit point in case the reversal is short lived and returns to the original trade direction. That way I lock in my profit but benefit from those huge runs that happen a couple of times per year.

I have had almost no losses and my returns for the past 6 weeks are superb even though I was on holiday last week.

In summary, I use everything of Aces system except I do move to BE very quickly. Ace's original method did not have this but I beleive he has now adopted this concept. I do take profit earlier than the TP4 based on my own parameters (usually with a Trailing Stop as I am asleep when the London market is open) which locks in my profits but I also have a new pending order in the same direction should my exit point be too premature and the Sunday opening trend continues.

Those are the only two differences but they are significantly more profitable than setting and forgetting.

Obviously, when I am away from the computer for longer periods of time, I can still modify my orders to the original system and just let them run but when I am hands on, my returns are much higher or more to the point, my losses are much much less and I lock in most of the profits earned.

By having the new Pending orders in place, I don't have to sweat whether or not my exit is correct. If it isn't correct, I am back in the market anyway and if I am correct, I have locked in great profits and don't have to give away my hard earned pips.

Edit. One small correction, I normally do take the breakout of the box as my entry as per Aces method however this week was unusual where a Monthly pivot was very close so I decided to error on the side of caution. First time I tried this.

Dave R.

I am studying this... will have questions.

I am still waiting because, 4 hour chart still not broken... See how this candle form in few hours time and look for opportunity on the new candle...

Cheers!!

1H already break out...

4H will coming due to the candle already form above resistance line

DRoland

You said you move to BE very quickly. Do you move to BE before TP1? I'd considered moving earlier than TP1 but with the way the GJ moves I was sure I'd get stopped out more.

Thanks,
Sandy

OK, the market has moved up to 155.05 so I have moved my new Pending Short Order almost up to my exit point and it is now at 153.95. I decided on 153.95 because even numbers like 154.00 are strong resisitance levels and I want a renewed short to pierce this level before I take a new short again.

If it comes back down to 153.95 I am back in the market. If it continues up, I have banked 70 pips and wait for a possible long entry based on Aces Sunday box.

Dave R.