Rao Journal: Elliot Wave Analysis

After fast-speed retracement on the 1st bullish wave EJcontinued to climb higher. By now wave (4) of 3 is being formed. I plan to place a buy order on EJ after the price touches Fibo retracement levels.

I managed to catch berish wave on EJ. Pay your attention to the fact that announced news was negative for US dollar, but dollar momentally strengthened. That is the weak side of fundamental analysis - the price goes where it needs to go, but not how the news said.

I was out of town at the week-end so I had no opportunity to make ahome-work analysis. The only thing I see is that Eur-pairs have a strong bearish momentum, and I want to determine when and where will it finish.
By the way, EJ had broken 132.76 and went even lower, I'll show pictures in several hours.

I think that in a couple of minutes we'll see a bullish impulse on eurusd pair.

Halo! I'm here again with a pattern on EJ (I think it's my favourite instrument on Forex).
I think that in the nearest future we'll see how the 5th bearish wave is forming. this scenario is actual til the price is lower than 134.5

My last pattern on EJ hasn't been proved, the price went till 134.6 and after that it began to fall. I'm not sure, but I'm thinking about if I can think about this as a false breakout?
We're ahead of US news, I think it'll influence on EJ as well. I'm waiting for a bearish wave. I'm not ready with a screen, but I'll post it ASAP

Fortunately, this time I was right. US news made a bearish wave on EJ (although logically we should have been waiting for a bullsih impulse after it).

The 5th bearish wave is completing right now on EJ. After that on 15 min chart you can notice a 3-wave formation. Right now it's really hard to predict exactly if we'll see a correction to the 3rd wave and then bearish move will continue (in that way I'll be more assured to qualify previous breakout till .60 as a false one). On the other side, this 3-wave formation may be a correction to a bullish impulse, such a scenario will be proved if the price breaks 134.45 level.
Looking at Stochastic pattern on H1, H4 timeframes I think that the bearish variant is more likely.

My account suffered significantly this morning as I lost the direction of the market. Only after that I did what I should have done much earlier

So, take a look at EURUSD 4H chart. There is a formed 3-wave pattern, the price didn't move higher than previous max level, so both bullish and bearish views on the mid-term direction is possible.
I attached two charts explaining my wave count on lower timeframes. It's just an argument to prove my point of view.

If you look at bullish waves, starting from 17.Aug, you can see also 3 waves, the latter is completing right at the moment. It's hard to tell exactly if the price will develop bullish move. As for me, I'm looking for some pips selling EU. I'm sure that we'll see a bearish wave as correction to wave 3 is likely to start.

Several hours before the market closed we saw the beginning of bearish move on EU. I tend to think that the price will reach at least 1.4265 level, that's minimal Fibo retracement level for a wave 3 (speaking about charts, please, look at my previous post) on hourly TF.

If EU resumes bullish move earlier than it reaches this level, it'll indicate that wave [v] of 3 is expanded. But this scenario is unlikely to me, by now I believe more in upcoming bearish wave 5 on 4H chart. EU hasn't touched yet the min Fibo retrace level on Daily chart (approx. 1.37). If it breaks to the upside, it'll show us that the 5th bullish wave on 1D EU isn't completed.

Daily Chart: Cable is in a bullish mode since the end of Jan'09. If my wave count is right, we're ahead bullish wave [v] of (5) of 3, which will complete a strong bullish impulse starting at 11.March.

4H&1H Chart: waves [i] and [iii] have practically identical pip-length, [iii] is a bit longer. Bearish move from 5.Aug has 3-wave pattern, that proves my scenario of forming the [v] wave.

I think that the bullish 5-wave pattern (17-21.Aug, the 5th wave of which is the shortest one) may be the first impulse of wave [v].

After analyzing GU, I'm not so sure about EurUsd. It's possible that the instruments will choose different directions in the following 2 weeks, but I don't think it's likely. The bullish pattern on GU is obvious for me, I think I'll try to trade on it next week. What to do with EU is an open question for me, I'm going to watch at 1.441 and 1.445 levels.

I don't see a clear pattern on EJ. As I've mentioned before, the price on this pair didn't manage to reach previous max level, but the last bullish impulse has 5-wave formation.
I can write much more, but I think that in this occasion the charts will tell more and better.

EurUsd continues its slow move to the downside, but this move is not fired up, the volatility is low, even comparing with other pairs.
The first trading day of this week hadn't cleared the pattern on EU, so I'm still out of it.

The pattern which I drew at the week-end is actual. Bearish move is forming a 3-wave formation. I'm waiting for the completing of the last part of wave 3 and then will try to put a long position with SL below 1.627

EurJpy is in correction mode by now. If I'm right the price will show us another min before it'll resume bullish move.

The correction seems to have been finished the day before.
According to my wave count, the 1st bullish wave of the following impulse, and correction to it, has been already formed.
Right now I think wave (3) of 3 is starting. The time can prove me wrong, but I hope it won't.

After a significant break, i found enough motivation to continue my journal.

EURJPY has possibly finished it’s another bullish impulse, that is described at 30min chart as wave 3. On the 15 min chart a detailed view of this impulse is given. I can’t determine for sure if the last part of this impulse has already finished. As my experience shows, the price at EJ can make another peak during the Asian session.

The short-term perspective of the pair is not so clear. We’ll obviously see a downtrend move soon, that will be at least a correction to wave 3. But the question is open, if EJ is ready for even more bearish gains. The change of the bias to the downside will be more obvious only after break through 122.2 level, and that is 200 pips.

To my mind, the upside move at EURJPY will be resumed after retracement, I’ll place an order when the correction would come to an end. Possibly, the following bullish goal for EJ will be 126-127 level.

After the day of trading in a tight range, cable finally broke through the levels, which I described in the previous entry (i mean yesterday's post at forexelliottanalysis.com ). Now GU has a good perspective for a bullish move, as it’s forming right now just the 3rd part of wave 3 in 5-wave formation. That means, that the price will make some more bullish gains during a few following days.

I'm glad you did revive the thread! Love to learn new stuff, you seem to be killing EU GU and EJ